GDT: Preseason Game 6, Canucks at Oilers beer leager. Sportsnet 7PM

[CycloneSweep]

Arvie was a very good player in prime. Would have loved to see him here 5yrs ago or even a few yrs ago. He's had two back injuries and back surgeries since. He's not coming here in peak health or prime of age.

Skinner? never been a fan of him. Not too much of a fan of one zone players. They contribute outscoring and Skinner outside of one season never has.

Skinner: To be fair to him and his +/-, did you see the teams he has mostly played on?
He has played his entire career against tough competition on teams that were not good and he has never played with a legit good center outside, I guess Eichel for a bit? Looking at it Skinners past 3 seasons 5v5 he has been equal or better on the GF/GA front. (+/- that the league tracks can sometimes be deceptive cause shorties and empty net goals count against you but not for you)
21/22 he was even at 63 and 63
22/23 he was at 80 and 59
23/24 he was at 47 and 38

 

[North]

Ok I guess, but he absolutely did not. You guys need to get over being mad a Vinny for being a 7th rounder.


I would wonder how many shifts they got with Josh Brown and how that affected the situation.

I’m not mad. I like Vinny and absolutely understand his decision to go for the money.

His skating is a problem and he did get exploited by Perry yesterday.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I don't disagree with too much of the above, but:

1) Henrique WAS a 60 point guy, he's not anymore... and therefore he's not "wasted" on an all vet line even though it will limit his offense, we NEED a line that can shut down opposition and he, Janmark and Brown proved they could do that and come out on the positive.

2) That trio WAS very effective at EV. You are right, the time on ice was limited (52 mins) but their GF% was 67% at EV. If you total up the time as duos (Brown-Jan, Brown-Hen, Hen-Jan) then you have ~164mins with each of the duos at least 50% GF and a total GF of 67% (6GF vs 3GA). And it was typically against high end opposition.

3) It would be nice to try running Henrique at times with younger/faster players... I agree with that part, but that will mean a different role... he'll be mentor to (say) Podkolzin + Savoie and a reasonable expectation would be to saw off (rather than outscore) opposition in a more sheltered role... it's something we should do to build for the future, but it's not really a win-now strategy... it should be deployed at times accordingly.

4) I think the best thing for Savoie... a very small player... is to get him some time adjusting to the size/speed of the AHL. We did the opposite with Yamamoto (another one of your favorites and I think it was ultimately to his detriment as a player... I don't want to ruin Savoie and we have the horses where we don't need to... give him 30 games in the AHL and then let's see... if he's playing a solid two-way game and not getting to head blown off, then sure, Henrique would be a great way to break him in. This also gives us 30 games to allow Draisaitl to mesh (or not) with his new linemates.

5) Back to the idea of duo's above... if we were to do #3 above, Brown + Janmark + Philp could be an interesting line... allows us to break in Philp as a shutdown/two-way center and Brown-Janmark (in addition to mentoring on the defensive side) could be a could complement to Philp's north-south skating... I could see that line being deployed in own-zone draws and generating a tonne of two-on-one breaks, similar to how Brown and Janmark played together in the playoffs.

6) Doing #3 and #5 together would mean that Perry and Ryan are on the outside looking in, which is a good place for vets of their age.

Henrique is an ideal mentor for young players and of course has been that before, and much of his career. Thus its one of the ways he's "wasted" playing with the likes of Brown, Perry, Janmark, Ryan. We have he gift of Henrique being here. Lets use his strongpoints of being a consummate pro and great guy to kids in the room. Thats his ideal role with us. I'm a huge fan of his as you can gather.

I disagree that Henrique having a youth line is contrary to a win now approach. Indeed having more players with jump and legs will probably be required at some points.

Savoie isn't "very small" as in outlier small like somebody else I remember . Savoie is within normal curve small and plays beyond his weight and of course his skill on puck allows him to possess puck and make plays, even at this level. he's ready. Savoie blows yama out of the window size and skillwise. But where he does most is ability to hold the puck and retain it in offensive zone. Yama never really got there. Closest he came was the DRai line but that was limited timeframe that never ever recurred.

I think we can all agree that contract last year was a huge mistake... not really Brown's fault. I'm sure he felt healthy and ready... but stopping/starting with the amount of force required to win a contested battle is not something you can really test until the competition ramps up.

Holland should have known better... the $4M total wasn't so bad, but the performance bonuses should have actually been for legit but achievable PERFORMANCE. Like if Brown had even given us 10G+10A that could have been worth the full $4M. Holland should have held out for some minimum standard of "he's back and healthy" rather than a meaningless 10 games.

But we gotta move on... he is objectively healthy now and he's back. With any luck he's got another season in the tank before age takes its toll.

Thanks for coming back and posting. If anything my bleating on brought you back here and I feel good about that. heh Didn't know I was ringing a bell.

Agreed with all the above. Is a pleasure anytime you post here. Almost.

But no joke. Yours are the kind of quality posts that reign in my worst moments. Years ago Icedragoon used to do that. Now posters like you do. Really appreciated.

 

[oXo Cube]

Jeff Skinner has pretty consistently outscored his 'defensive woes' for more or less his whole career despite spending the entirety of said career on teams that weren't good enough to make the playoffs.

But there is a subset of fans of this game who will never have time for him because he DoEsN'T fInIsH hIs ChEcKs.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Henrique is an ideal mentor for young players and of course has been that before, and much of his career. Thus its one of the ways he's "wasted" playing with the likes of Brown, Perry, Janmark, Ryan. We have he gift of Henrique being here. Lets use his strongpoints of being a consummate pro and great guy to kids in the room. Thats his ideal role with us. I'm a huge fan of his as you can gather.

I disagree that Henrique having a youth line is contrary to a win now approach. Indeed having more players with jump and legs will probably be required at some points.

Savoie isn't "very small" as in outlier small like somebody else I remember . Savoie is within normal curve small and plays beyond his weight and of course his skill on puck allows him to possess puck and make plays, even at this level. he's ready. Savoie blows yama out of the window size and skillwise. But where he does most is ability to hold the puck and retain it in offensive zone. Yama never really got there. Closest he came was the DRai line but that was limited timeframe that never ever recurred.

Yamamoto is 5'8" 158 lbs, Savoie is 5'9" 178lbs So I mean, pretty close

With how I think the roster is going to shake out personnel wise I think having
Podkolzin - Henrique - Lavoie
Janmark - Philp - Brown
Is ideal although I still think they send Philp down for a bit and use Ryan as that center with Perry on the bench as a "plug and play" kind of vet.

 

[bucks_oil]

Just to devil's advocate a little, the Janmark - Henrique - Brown line had an xGF% of 43 5 on 5 in the playoffs. They were as you would probably expect fairly low event just generally but they were significantly outshot and outchanced. This group caught lightning in a bottle for a short sample at the best possible time but I'd stop short of calling the line actively good.

Disclaimer: this doesn't take away from these players PK contributions for which they are full marks.

I saw that too... but I think you have to be very careful when quoting xGF% on a line/player level rather than on a team level (as it is typically intended). It has a lot of validity for coaching to assess what happens as a team, and less and less validity as you evaluate lines, players and smaller samples.

Points to consider:
1) Deployment matters A LOT when looking at xGF% and each of Henrique, Janmark, Brown (I couldn't find line stats, but as individuals) had 60% or greater own-zone starts. If you start every shift in your own zone, isn't your xGF% going to suffer? Would you be "sawing off" if you ended up with 40% xGF?

2) Look at their HDSC%... they had 53% high danger scoring chances... this means that even though they were only earning 40% of the xGF%, when you dig deeper, the actual quality of the chances they earned vs those they gave up was greater. To me that sounds like effective, containing defense.

3) ACTUAL GOALS matter to me more... I'm a goalie, none of these "advanced" stats get anywhere near close to evaluating the real difference between a preventable goal and a gimme-goal. If they can't measure the chaos at the goal/goalie level, then they can't measure the chaos at the player level either... so ultimately it is the OUTCOME not the PREDICTED OUTCOME that matters. Yes, I declare a heavy bias in this regard, useful tools maybe, interpret alongside all other available data and eye-test would be my position.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Yamamoto is 5'8" 158 lbs, Savoie is 5'9" 178lbs So I mean, pretty close

With how I think the roster is going to shake out personnel wise I think having
Podkolzin - Henrique - Lavoie
Janmark - Philp - Brown
Is ideal although I still think they send Philp down for a bit and use Ryan as that center with Perry on the bench as a "plug and play" kind of vet.

Savoie 26lbs heavier, much more talented and infinitely better with the puck. I wasn't even initially sold on Savoie as I hadn't seen him as much as other posters. He's wowed me basically everytime I've watched. This player earned it with me. Sure its preseason. But I'm getting some Sam Gagner type rookie vibes.

Podz had some better than I expected moments in preseason but was really just nothing yesterday. I suspect the nerves of playing with the great one got to him? Interestingly Petterson from Vancouver was invisible in the same game. Man, Petey didn't look any different than any of the scrubs Nucks were playing. Thats gonna be a terrible contract.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Jeff Skinner has pretty consistently outscored his 'defensive woes' for more or less his whole career despite spending the entirety of said career on teams that weren't good enough to make the playoffs.

But there is a subset of fans of this game who will never have time for him because he DoEsN'T fInIsH hIs ChEcKs.

Skinner has had a negative +/- most of his career so its easy to see that. But looking at even just his 5v5 goal differential which imo is more fair...
14 years in the league
7 years at 50% or above (3 of those the last 3), 3 years at 45-49% and then 4 years that were below 45%. His worst 2 came in his first 5 years in the league. and since moving to Buffalo he only had a single year below 45%

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Arvie was a very good player in prime. Would have loved to see him here 5yrs ago or even a few yrs ago. He's had two back injuries and back surgeries since. He's not coming here in peak health or prime of age.

Skinner? never been a fan of him. Not too much of a fan of one zone players. They contribute outscoring and Skinner outside of one season never has.

Arvidsson is a season removed from a 26G and 59pt season. Even last year he had 15 pts in 18 games. The guy is a strong contributor still and he’s never had the opportunity to play with guys like Mcdavid and Draisaitl.

Skinner is by no means perfect but the bottom line he’s still elite or near elite at putting the puck in the net. We’ve got some great two way forwards in the lineup so we can afford to carry a guy who’s got warts but is a proven goal scorer.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Savoie 26lbs heavier, much more talented and infinitely better with the puck. I wasn't even initially sold on Savoie as I hadn't seen him as much as other posters. He's wowed me basically everytime I've watched. This player earned it with me. Sure its preseason. But I'm getting some Sam Gagner type rookie vibes.

Podz had some better than I expected moments in preseason but was really just nothing yesterday. I suspect the nerves of playing with the great one got to him? Interestingly Petterson from Vancouver was invisible in the same game. Man, Petey didn't look any different than any of the scrubs Nucks were playing. Thats gonna be a terrible contract.

Savoie is a better player for sure. I think he looked good but I think he needs some AHL time to adapt to the size still.

I think it was nerves for Petterson and the fact that he reinvented himself as a bottom 6 guy so it was probably a shock to suddenly having to play a skilled game again.

Wrong Petterson. Forward Petterson didn't play last night, that was the Defense Petterson with the same name lol

 

[bucks_oil]

Henrique is an ideal mentor for young players and of course has been that before, and much of his career. Thus its one of the ways he's "wasted" playing with the likes of Brown, Perry, Janmark, Ryan. We have he gift of Henrique being here. Lets use his strongpoints of being a consummate pro and great guy to kids in the room. Thats his ideal role with us. I'm a huge fan of his as you can gather.

I disagree that Henrique having a youth line is contrary to a win now approach. Indeed having more players with jump and legs will probably be required at some points.

Savoie isn't "very small" as in outlier small like somebody else I remember . Savoie is within normal curve small and plays beyond his weight and of course his skill on puck allows him to possess puck and make plays, even at this level. he's ready. Savoie blows yama out of the window size and skillwise. But where he does most is ability to hold the puck and retain it in offensive zone. Yama never really got there. Closest he came was the DRai line but that was limited timeframe that never ever recurred.


Thanks for coming back and posting. If anything my bleating on brought you back here and I feel good about that. heh Didn't know I was ringing a bell.

Agreed with all the above. Is a pleasure anytime you post here. Almost.

But no joke. Yours are the kind of quality posts that reign in my worst moments. Years ago Icedragoon used to do that. Now posters like you do. Really appreciated.

No worries... I'm looking forward to the season of banter with you. Just cheer up, will ya?

I didn't think my heart could handle the type of off-season lamenting we've put ourselves through most summers... I was largely satisfied with last season, not at all destroyed by the loss, much less so than 2006 for example, just given we can run it back this time... incredibly happy with the off-season (en masse, save RFA mis-management, which I give some 'that actually was unexpected' grace to Jackson and newbie Bowman)... So I didn't want to get pulled into any downward spirals... I went biking instead, lol.

I agree with you on Henrique... I just think I'd be playing things the same way as we break camp... go with the steady (yeah slow) vets out the gate... let Savoie and Philp get reps in the AHL and I would definitely expect/plan to have them up by January. Fresh legs for playoffs.

At 5'8 to 5'9... I disagree... they are both "blown out the window" by any stiff breeze. I agree on the skill side, but let him at least experience the next most logical step up. One concussion can end a career these days. Let him develop some preservation skills against defenders who are bigger/stronger/faster than what he's typically seen so far.... then trade up from there when it is obvious he's ready. I'm impatient to see him too... but not so impatient that I'm ready to skip a step... we don't need to anymore.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Arvidsson is a season removed from a 26G and 59pt season. Even last year he had 15 pts in 18 games. The guy is a strong contributor still and he’s never had the opportunity to play with guys like Mcdavid and Draisaitl.

Skinner is by no means perfect but the bottom line he’s still elite or near elite at putting the puck in the net. We’ve got some great two way forwards in the lineup so we can afford to carry a guy who’s got warts but is a proven goal scorer.

Arvidsons back condition and two surgeries is hard, real hard to come back from in hockey. Again I've stated that its valiant, heroic of him, certainly brave, to even try. The chances he can play a lot of minutes and a lot of games is probably remote.

I like the player. You're typecasting me as not liking the player. The will is there. Arvy is heart and soul. I don't think the health will be. Again he played only 17 games last season and was reinjured in one of the games he did start. Was hurt in another game as well. I doubt we get 40-50 games from the player during regular season. Would be nice to rotate in Lavoie or Savoie.

 

[ConnorNova0929]

The organization is valuing people who actually have proven NHL track records and contribute offensively.

You cried endlessly about Draisaitl not having proper linemates and when they go out and get a couple of proven 20/30 goal scorers then you cry about losing the guys you were crying about not being good enough in the first place.

That poster complains about everything and people here always take the bait.

 

[McDoused]

Skinner has had a negative +/- most of his career so its easy to see that. But looking at even just his 5v5 goal differential which imo is more fair...
14 years in the league
7 years at 50% or above (3 of those the last 3), 3 years at 45-49% and then 4 years that were below 45%. His worst 2 came in his first 5 years in the league. and since moving to Buffalo he only had a single year below 45%

Anyone doubting this guy should go watch his highlights and see how quickly he elevates the puck on Bobrovsky. We could have used that in the finals. We've lacked a finisher on this team for years. We were 28th (I believe) in finishing last year. It takes all sorts of players to make a team.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Savoie 26lbs heavier, much more talented and infinitely better with the puck. I wasn't even initially sold on Savoie as I hadn't seen him as much as other posters. He's wowed me basically everytime I've watched. This player earned it with me. Sure its preseason. But I'm getting some Sam Gagner type rookie vibes.

Podz had some better than I expected moments in preseason but was really just nothing yesterday. I suspect the nerves of playing with the great one got to him? Interestingly Petterson from Vancouver was invisible in the same game. Man, Petey didn't look any different than any of the scrubs Nucks were playing. Thats gonna be a terrible contract.

Considering it’s not the same Pettersson you’re thinking of, I’d hope he was invisible as he was still in Vancouver

 

[oXo Cube]

I saw that too... but I think you have to be very careful when quoting xGF% on a line/player level rather than on a team level (as it is typically intended). It has a lot of validity for coaching to assess what happens as a team, and less and less validity as you evaluate lines, players and smaller samples.

Points to consider:
1) Deployment matters A LOT when looking at xGF% and each of Henrique, Janmark, Brown (I couldn't find line stats, but as individuals) had 60% or greater own-zone starts. If you start every shift in your own zone, isn't your xGF% going to suffer? Would you be "sawing off" if you ended up with 40% xGF?

2) Look at their HDSC%... they had 53% high danger scoring chances... this means that even though they were only earning 40% of the xGF%, when you dig deeper, the actual quality of the chances they earned vs those they gave up was greater. To me that sounds like effective, containing defense.

3) ACTUAL GOALS matter to me more... I'm a goalie, none of these "advanced" stats get anywhere near close to evaluating the real difference between a preventable goal and a gimme-goal. If they can't measure the chaos at the goal/goalie level, then they can't measure the chaos at the player level either... so ultimately it is the OUTCOME not the PREDICTED OUTCOME that matters. Yes, I declare a heavy bias in this regard, useful tools maybe, interpret alongside all other available data and eye-test would be my position.

On point 1, 40% is by definition not a saw off and if the D-Zone push is responsible for it then the coaches should probably adjust the gameplan there before it starts going bad.

Point 2, sure. That's a good sign but I'll point out that ignoring everything outside of HDSC is essentially handwaving away the 109 PDO. Goals can be and are scored from other areas on the ice.

No detailed comment on point 3 as you're welcome to any opinion you'd like to hold of course but I'll point out that this is essentially the Vancouver fan defense.

In any case, I have plenty of time for all of these players and we've already dug deeper than we probably should here given the sample size.

 

[timekeep]

The line didn't get much EV at any point. Henrique did at times. I would say Janmark had the brief spell of elevating in the SC final but not much production any other time last season. Henrique is a potential 60pt guy. NHL Is too quick on pucks now to have these kinds of all vet lines. Pressure too fast now. Makes it harder for older lines to cycle effectively now in contrast to say the dead puck era.


Appreciate somebody actually responding. Disagree on Ryan. I don't want him here longer. He did make a couple plays in preseason and he gives you everything he has but at present age thats not enough imo.

Disagree on Savoie. He's ready. Parking him in lesser rung does no favors to him. Why trade a starting roster player for a young stud if we're just going to park the young stud? Throw him the keys. I'd be parking guys like Perry and others.

Savoie showed me more here than several of the vets have.

What did you see in Savoie??? I only saw one game, but he didn't do much. He is not ready for the NHL.

 

[Drivesaitl]

No worries... I'm looking forward to the season of banter with you. Just cheer up, will ya?

I didn't think my heart could handle the type of off-season lamenting we've put ourselves through most summers... I was largely satisfied with last season, not at all destroyed by the loss, much less so than 2006 for example, just given we can run it back this time... incredibly happy with the off-season (en masse, save RFA mis-management, which I give some 'that actually was unexpected' grace to Jackson and newbie Bowman)... So I didn't want to get pulled into any downward spirals... I went biking instead, lol.

I agree with you on Henrique... I just think I'd be playing things the same way as we break camp... go with the steady (yeah slow) vets out the gate... let Savoie and Philp get reps in the AHL and I would definitely expect/plan to have them up by January. Fresh legs for playoffs.

At 5'8 to 5'9... I disagree... they are both "blown out the window" by any stiff breeze. I agree on the skill side, but let him at least experience the next most logical step up. One concussion can end a career these days. Let him develop some preservation skills against defenders who are bigger/stronger/faster than what he's typically seen so far.... then trade up from there when it is obvious he's ready. I'm impatient to see him too... but not so impatient that I'm ready to skip a step... we don't need to anymore.

I need more cowbell. Hockey being back, at least regular season will bring some of that cowbell. I was gut punched with how the SC final went. Really to me it was a repeat of 2006 except this time we're still a good team the year after so thats better.

Biking is a good way to go. I can't sit down pedal anymore due to a health condition. So I need a stand up bike like this one.

ElliptiGO® RSUB

-- Full-size 700c tires with Schrader valve, for a smooth ride -- 8-speeds for climbing hills and sprinting flats -- Disc-brakes for stopping power in all conditions Limited edition Stand Up To Cancer® RSUB now available. ElliptiGO will donate 20% of the purchase price of the SU2C RSUB. To...

www.elliptigo.com

not being able to bike these past few years has been a major setback for me. Trouble is the above product is not sold or available anywhee in Canada and I can't test ride it anywhere. Have to good faith shell out 2K CAD to get one ordered. Been reading lots of reviews. Being able to bike everyday again would be huge for me. I was a cycling diehard before my condition.

ps I defended Bowman from all the over scrutiny. There were lots of posters here claiming they'd never post again because the Oilers hired.....

I think in cancel culture days Bowman got more criticism than ought to be the case.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Arvidsons back condition and two surgeries is hard, real hard to come back from in hockey. Again I've stated that its valiant, heroic of him, certainly brave, to even try. The chances he can play a lot of minutes and a lot of games is probably remote.

I like the player. You're typecasting me as not liking the player. The will is there. Arvy is heart and soul. I don't think the health will be. Again he played only 17 games last season and was reinjured in one of the games he did start. Was hurt in another game as well. I doubt we get 40-50 games from the player during regular season. Would be nice to rotate in Lavoie or Savoie.

I do think that he’s going to have to recalibrate his game a bit as he gets older to not be such a little wrecking ball and elevate his injury risk but he’s not some bandaid. Minus last year the guy has pretty consistently played 75% or more games in a year.

I’d be surprised if he missed half the season as you’re suggesting but even if he did, it gives us more options in terms of LTIR and could open an opportunity for a guy like Savioe.

 

[Drivesaitl]

What did you see in Savoie??? I only saw one game, but he didn't do much. He is not ready for the NHL.

Possessed puck well, cycled well, made plays and scored. What wasn't to like? The guy showed game everytime out. I thought Philp was good too.

Considering it’s not the same Pettersson you’re thinking of, I’d hope he was invisible as he was still in Vancouver

lol. They have two of these dolts? Its hard to keep up. They didn't show him up close and I didn't catch the lineups. Being that petey is usually invisible against us anyway I just assumed it was him. I'm having bad takes all day. heh

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I saw that too... but I think you have to be very careful when quoting xGF% on a line/player level rather than on a team level (as it is typically intended). It has a lot of validity for coaching to assess what happens as a team, and less and less validity as you evaluate lines, players and smaller samples.

Points to consider:
1) Deployment matters A LOT when looking at xGF% and each of Henrique, Janmark, Brown (I couldn't find line stats, but as individuals) had 60% or greater own-zone starts. If you start every shift in your own zone, isn't your xGF% going to suffer? Would you be "sawing off" if you ended up with 40% xGF?

2) Look at their HDSC%... they had 53% high danger scoring chances... this means that even though they were only earning 40% of the xGF%, when you dig deeper, the actual quality of the chances they earned vs those they gave up was greater. To me that sounds like effective, containing defense.

3) ACTUAL GOALS matter to me more... I'm a goalie, none of these "advanced" stats get anywhere near close to evaluating the real difference between a preventable goal and a gimme-goal. If they can't measure the chaos at the goal/goalie level, then they can't measure the chaos at the player level either... so ultimately it is the OUTCOME not the PREDICTED OUTCOME that matters. Yes, I declare a heavy bias in this regard, useful tools maybe, interpret alongside all other available data and eye-test would be my position.

Fully agree. I think xGF/GA gets misused alot. Very helpful team based projection but there's a lot of distortion effect when used to assess individual or even line performance. Actual goals matter to everyone!

 

[oXo Cube]

Skinner has had a negative +/- most of his career so its easy to see that. But looking at even just his 5v5 goal differential which imo is more fair...
14 years in the league
7 years at 50% or above (3 of those the last 3), 3 years at 45-49% and then 4 years that were below 45%. His worst 2 came in his first 5 years in the league. and since moving to Buffalo he only had a single year below 45%

To crack this nut open a little deeper. Skinner has, before this year, never played with a Center capable of keeping his head above water in top 6 NHL minutes. Eric Staal was no longer that guy by 2011 and Eichel wouldn't become that until after he was moved to Vegas(though 2019-2020 was close)

He's got a Jordan Eberle problem. Whipping boy because he isn't physical and has played for a lot of teams that were built the wrong way.

 

[Drivesaitl]

On point 1, 40% is by definition not a saw off and if the D-Zone push is responsible for it then the coaches should probably adjust the gameplan there before it starts going bad.

Point 2, sure. That's a good sign but I'll point out that ignoring everything outside of HDSC is essentially handwaving away the 109 PDO. Goals can be and are scored from other areas on the ice.

No detailed comment on point 3 as you're welcome to any opinion you'd like to hold of course but I'll point out that this is essentially the Vancouver fan defense.

In any case, I have plenty of time for all of these players and we've already dug deeper than we probably should here given the sample size.

Thank you too for your posts on this. Good reads in the exchange.

That poster complains about everything and people here always take the bait.

Ironically complaining.

I'm an acquired taste.

 

[MessierII]

To crack this nut open a little deeper. Skinner has, before this year, never played with a Center capable of keeping his head above water in top 6 NHL minutes. Eric Staal was no longer that guy by 2011 and Eichel wouldn't become that until after he was moved to Vegas(though 2019-2020 was close)

He's got a Jordan Eberle problem. Whipping boy because he isn't physical and has played for a lot of teams that were built the wrong way.

Skinners problem is that his game is largely inconsistent. He only brings one thing to the table consistently and that’s scoring goals. Lots of them, mostly at even strength. He will thrive here just a matter of finding where he fits.

 

[bucks_oil]

On point 1, 40% is by definition not a saw off and if the D-Zone push is responsible for it then the coaches should probably adjust the gameplan there before it starts going bad.

Shots against come from within your own zone, shots for at the opposite end of the ice. Higher quality shots are essentially xGF. If you start 60% of your time in your own zone, then a saw-off would be 40% xGF. We can agree that's obviously not the goal, but 'by definition" any shot-metric stats would be expected to be the reciprocal of your zone starts as a baseline.

Why should the coach adjust the D-zone push? Presumably he was doing it in the first place FOR A REASON.... ie those guys could be trusted to get the puck moving in the other direction before something truly bad happened.

And two measures say they made a huge positive difference: GF% and HDSC%

Only one stat (one I value less) says they sawed-off (yes, sawed-off)

Point 2, sure. That's a good sign but I'll point out that ignoring everything outside of HDSC is essentially handwaving away the 109 PDO. Goals can be and are scored from other areas on the ice.

As above... how is it hand-waving to use two possession/ice-tilt stats that favor my position and disregard one other one? I gave my rationale. You are ignoring two stats in favor of one.

PDO... I don't believe that PDO is luck. If I did I wouldn't believe in good shooters vs bad shooters. Good goalies vs bad goalies. Good shot selection vs bad shot selection. We can definitely, definitely agree to disagree on PDO when we are discussing individual players or even lines.

No detailed comment on point 3 as you're welcome to any opinion you'd like to hold of course but I'll point out that this is essentially the Vancouver fan defense.

No, it's definitely more nuanced than that... a whole TEAM having a high PDO is a lot less believable (until it isn't) than a player or a line. Players and lines after all ARE SUPPOSED TO INFLUENCE PDO. Any beer league goalie can tell you that the things one of their lines does vs their other lines influences how/whether I make a save and how/whether the other goalie doesn't. That's what hockey IS... unstoppable snipes, tap ins, shots to the crest, shots that can be seen by the goalie, and shots that cannot. Rebounds that get boxed out and covered vs rebounds that land on opponents sticks. Bad lines have bad PDO. Good lines have good PDO.

It's only in the aggregate that PDO regresses to 100.

And even then, good teams are working toward having a positive PDO too, but it's hard to do so over a full season, as a team... a lot more has to go right.

I actually don't think Vancouver's PDO was a fluke. They may regress a bit, but I'd expect them to still have a high PDO. They have a lot of guys who can snipe. They aren't a volume shooting team, they are a good quick strike team and they have exceptional goaltending... all of those things can influence a positive PDO.

In any case, I have plenty of time for all of these players and we've already dug deeper than we probably should here given the sample size.

I agree on that point. They may not repeat that level of performance... execution is the key... their execution this coming year isn't predicted by last year's xGF... that's all I'm saying.