GDT: Preseason Game #2 Utah @ Bluesy

[joe galiba]

Jarmo left after the 2010 season, so none of Parayko, Binnington, or Dunn were his picks. AFAIR he wasn’t at the draft table for the Schwartz/Tarasenko draft either, but he gets partial credit for being on the scouting department that year either way.

There were a lot of really deep drafts between 03-10, and he never had a single one without muffing a gimme pick. Shawn Belle at 30th overall in 03 set us back years, imo. He had 24 non-1st round top-100 picks in his tenure, and only hit on 4: Backes, Allen, Bishop, and Soderberg, who never played a game for us. 5 if you count Lehtera. That’s abysmal value for the draft positions he was gifted.

Edit: not to mention that if he drafted Cory Schneider instead of Marek Schwarz then we don’t have to waste assets on Halak or Ryan Miller. The goalie carousel of the mid-2000s - late teens gets avoided entirely.

if he didn’t draft Schwartz, then we probably don’t wind up with Binny and a Cup

maybe Jarmo was a visionary

 

[Thallis]

Jarmo left after the 2010 season, so none of Parayko, Binnington, or Dunn were his picks. AFAIR he wasn’t at the draft table for the Schwartz/Tarasenko draft either, but he gets partial credit for being on the scouting department that year either way.

There were a lot of really deep drafts between 03-10, and he never had a single one without muffing a gimme pick. Shawn Belle at 30th overall in 03 set us back years, imo. He had 24 non-1st round top-100 picks in his tenure, and only hit on 4: Backes, Allen, Bishop, and Soderberg, who never played a game for us. 5 if you count Lehtera. That’s abysmal value for the draft positions he was gifted.

Edit: not to mention that if he drafted Cory Schneider instead of Marek Schwarz then we don’t have to waste assets on Halak or Ryan Miller. The goalie carousel of the mid-2000s - late teens gets avoided entirely.

Yes those were specifically called out as core Bill Armstrong picks vs core Jarmo picks on the 2019 cup team. Schwartz and Tarasenko were considered his "parting gift to the Blues" so it's likely it was his team calling the shots there. It's incredibly easy to armchair quarterback on better individual picks in hindsight, but at the end of the day Backes, Allen, Bishop, Stempniak, Oshie, Perron, Berglund, EJ, Pietrangelo, Eller, Schwartz, and Tarasenko provided the asset foundation for the Blues throughout the 2010s. Those teams were pretty damn successful for such a short rebuild that he drafted through, and it eventually culminated in the cup.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

I did a post about this not too long ago - Jarmo did pretty well overall. Almost all of his first round picks played close to 1k games if I remember correctly, outside of Berglund. That's pretty damn good value, Shawn Belle aside.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Yes those were specifically called out as core Bill Armstrong picks vs core Jarmo picks on the 2019 cup team. Schwartz and Tarasenko were considered his "parting gift to the Blues" so it's likely it was his team calling the shots there. It's incredibly easy to armchair quarterback on better individual picks in hindsight, but at the end of the day Backes, Allen, Bishop, Stempniak, Oshie, Perron, Berglund, EJ, Pietrangelo, Eller, Schwartz, and Tarasenko provided the asset foundation for the Blues throughout the 2010s. Those teams were pretty damn successful for such a short rebuild that he drafted through, and it eventually culminated in the cup.

Yeah idk man, by that logic Mike Keenan and Ron Caron were crucial parts of our 2019 cup win. Jarmo had the benefit of the draft capital of a true rebuilding team, and squandered many of the most valuable of those pieces. We lost to the Hawks and Kings over and over because they were getting guys outside of the first round and in the top-100. We were relying on middling 1st rounders, and we kept having to supplement them with end-of-career FAs. Yes many of the first rounders were successful, but that isn’t and hasn’t ever been enough.

Also let’s not discount the effect that Hitch’s system had on those team’s success. The *only* 70+ point player we had in those years was Brad Boyes, who Jarmo didn’t draft. It took Jarmo almost 10 years to draft someone with that level of production, and that was (arguably) his last act before being canned.

 

[Thallis]

Yeah idk man, by that logic Mike Keenan and Ron Caron were crucial parts of our 2019 cup win.

What

Jarmo had the benefit of the draft capital of a true rebuilding team, and squandered many of the most valuable of those pieces. We lost to the Hawks and Kings over and over because they were getting guys outside of the first round and in the top-100. We were relying on middling 1st rounders, and we kept having to supplement them with end-of-career FAs. Yes many of the first rounders were successful, but that isn’t and hasn’t ever been enough.

Jarmo had 2 top 10 picks. The Blackhawks had their top 2 forwards in the top 3, found a Norris trophy defenseman in the second round and is a destination for free agents. LA is a destination that their 2C essentially forced himself to be traded to.

The draft capital of a true rebuilding team was a 1st overall who blew out his knee in a freak accident and a 4th overall defender who might be having a hall of fame career. The rest of the team was built from the middle/lower portions of the first round of the draft. These areas are not gimmes. Our rebuild was shorter and we didn't have the benefit for being a premier market that the teams you're comparing us to do. We were at a disadvantage from the outset.

Also let’s not discount the effect that Hitch’s system had on those team’s success. The *only* 70+ point player we had in those years was Brad Boyes, who Jarmo didn’t draft. It took Jarmo almost 10 years to draft someone with that level of production, and that was (arguably) his last act before being canned.

Jamie Benn won the rocket with 85 points in that era. Kopitar was LA's only 70 point player. You're going through as many hoops as you can to avoid giving credit where it is do. Jarmo did a good job with the rebuild. He was a poor GM in Columbus, but that doesn't effect his work with the Blues.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

What



Jarmo had 2 top 10 picks. The Blackhawks had their top 2 forwards in the top 3, found a Norris trophy defenseman in the second round and is a destination for free agents. LA is a destination that their 2C essentially forced himself to be traded to.

The draft capital of a true rebuilding team was a 1st overall who blew out his knee in a freak accident and a 4th overall defender who might be having a hall of fame career. The rest of the team was built from the middle/lower portions of the first round of the draft. These areas are not gimmes. Our rebuild was shorter and we didn't have the benefit for being a premier market that the teams you're comparing us to do. We were at a disadvantage from the outset.


Jamie Benn won the rocket with 85 points in that era. Kopitar was LA's only 70 point player. You're going through as many hoops as you can to avoid giving credit where it is do. Jarmo did a good job with the rebuild. He was a poor GM in Columbus, but that doesn't effect his work with the Blues.

Let's put some numbers to this. In terms of career totals, of players drafted between '03 and '10, the Blues were 16th in the league in games played from players 31-100. Excluding Soderberg -- who didn't play until his D+8 season for a different team -- we drop to 23rd. That puts us at 20th in the league for players drafted during that time in terms of total career points scored. Backes accounts for 94% of that total. So in the 7ish years that Jarmo was at the helm of our scouting department, he produced exactly one point-producing player of any consequence -- in what is widely recognized as the deepest draft in NHL history, and one in which he absolutely whiffed the first round pick for -- from picks 31-100, which he had 24 of.

Granted, he also picked Bish and Allen. Bish got us a 2nd round pick which hardly made it past the ECHL (Vannelli), and Allen was benched midway through the '19 season for an unproven, career AHL backup who hadn't appeared in an NHL game for almost 4 seasons. Allen played one game in those playoffs. Jarmo didn't have anything to do with trading Bish (presumably), but he also didn't "break out" until almost his D+9 season. In the meantime, we wasted a lot of the draft capital Jarmo had accumulated on trading for Halak and Miller, and FA dollars on the withering husks of Conklin, Mason, Osgood, etc. A lot of that is because he swung and Linus'd on a 5'10" Czech goalie at 17th overall in '04. In that era, we spent a ton of money covering up the lack of depth that Jarmo left us both in net and beyond.

Now, over that same period of time, LA was 4th in games played from players drafted in that range, and Chicago was 20th. In points, LA was 7th and CHI was 23rd. Both of them had the advantage -- as you pointed out -- of being destination spots, or having the advantage of several closely-grouped generational draft choices. We didn't have either of those luxuries, and the one 1OA pick we did have flopped. Turns out the best and generational picks that year went 2-5.

I'm absolutely not writing off the impact of Petro, or Vladi, or Oshie, Perron, Bergie, or any of those guys. I loved those teams, they were "my generation" of Blues players. But the reality is that we spent years trying to climb out of the hole of mediocrity that Jarmo built us. It isn't that Jarmo was bad at drafting at the beginning or -- oddly enough -- the end of the draft, it's that he wasn't good enough to overcome the inherent disadvantages that playing in a mid-market city come with. He wasted a ton of draft capital in rounds 2-4 on obviously-flawed players, even adjusting for the era. Swinging for the fences is all fine and well, but a 1/24 (or even 3/24) batting average is just bad scouting. I think the fact that he and Davidson both similarly floundered in mediocrity in Columbus kind of prove that point.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Like, it’s not that Lars Eller is bad. It’s that you can find players that will never score 40 points in a season way later than 13th overall. And the fact that Jarmo valued Eller and Aaron Palushaj over Logan Couture at 9OA is kind of the whole issue in a nutshell. Unless the talent was undeniable, Jarmo always thinks he’s smarter than the obvious answer. That’s why he reached for Chinakov in the 1st. He’s a good player, there’s no denying that, but he could have been drafted much, much later.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Jarmo left after the 2010 season, so none of Parayko, Binnington, or Dunn were his picks. AFAIR he wasn’t at the draft table for the Schwartz/Tarasenko draft either, but he gets partial credit for being on the scouting department that year either way.

There were a lot of really deep drafts between 03-10, and he never had a single one without muffing a gimme pick. Shawn Belle at 30th overall in 03 set us back years, imo. He had 24 non-1st round top-100 picks in his tenure, and only hit on 4: Backes, Allen, Bishop, and Soderberg, who never played a game for us. 5 if you count Lehtera. That’s abysmal value for the draft positions he was gifted.

Edit: not to mention that if he drafted Cory Schneider instead of Marek Schwarz then we don’t have to waste assets on Halak or Ryan Miller. The goalie carousel of the mid-2000s - late teens gets avoided entirely.

Pretty sure he announced the Schwartz and Tarasenko picks, he was 100% there. And you only give him partial credit for being on the scouting department that year, he led the department, he'd get the typical amount of credit that his position would usually receive.

Years of mediocrity? I think we have different definitions of mediocrity if you consider the Backes years to be mediocre.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Stempniak was another late round pick.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Jarmo left after the 2010 season, so none of Parayko, Binnington, or Dunn were his picks. AFAIR he wasn’t at the draft table for the Schwartz/Tarasenko draft either, but he gets partial credit for being on the scouting department that year either way.

There were a lot of really deep drafts between 03-10, and he never had a single one without muffing a gimme pick. Shawn Belle at 30th overall in 03 set us back years, imo. He had 24 non-1st round top-100 picks in his tenure, and only hit on 4: Backes, Allen, Bishop, and Soderberg, who never played a game for us. 5 if you count Lehtera. That’s abysmal value for the draft positions he was gifted.

Edit: not to mention that if he drafted Cory Schneider instead of Marek Schwarz then we don’t have to waste assets on Halak or Ryan Miller. The goalie carousel of the mid-2000s - late teens gets avoided entirely.

Jarmo was absolutely at the draft table and still the one calling the shots at the 2010 draft. I recall him having a quote afterward about if Tarasenko wasn’t Russian he would’ve gone top-5.

Here he is with Schwartz that day:

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Jarmo was absolutely at the draft table and still the one calling the shots at the 2010 draft. I recall him having a quote afterward about if Tarasenko wasn’t Russian he would’ve gone top-5.

Here he is with Schwartz that day:

Photoshop.

Really tho, that doesn't really have an impact on my point either way. I'm not saying that Vladi or Schwartz were bad picks. Obviously they weren't. I thought I remembered him not being there, but it doesn't really matter that he was. If Jarmo was at the draft table for those, good for him. Broken clocks, twice a day.

My point is about his below-league-average drafting from 31-100. One skater of any consequence (Backes) in that range during his time here. Out of 24 picks in the most valuable range in the draft, during a full tear-down rebuild. He didn't do his job well.

 

[bleedblue1223]

You're claiming 31-100 is the most valuable range?

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

You're claiming 31-100 is the most valuable range?

I’m claiming that you expect your 1st rounders to be dudes that play. It’s not impressive to hit on those players. Good players fall every year, good scouts find them. Your best odds of finding those players are in the top 100. You need to find those players, especially if you’re a mid-market team that struggles to attract prime-age free agents, and especially if you’re in a full rebuild. Only hitting on one in ~7 years of said full rebuild — and in the first year no less — caused us problems. It’s a valuable range in that you still have a good shot to find players that will provide value well-above their draft status. High value is available there every year. Jarmo found it once.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I’m claiming that you expect your 1st rounders to be dudes that play. It’s not impressive to hit on those players. Good players fall every year, good scouts find them. Your best odds of finding those players are in the top 100. You need to find those players, especially if you’re a mid-market team that struggles to attract prime-age free agents, and especially if you’re in a full rebuild. Only hitting on one in ~7 years of said full rebuild — and in the first year no less — caused us problems. It’s a valuable range in that you still have a good shot to find players that will provide value well-above their draft status. High value is available there every year. Jarmo found it once.

Sorry, but this is misleading and unfair. First, saying he only hit on 1 in this range is misleading because he also got Lehtera, Allen, and Bishop. Second, in that same period we also drafted Peluso, Reaves, Nikitin, Polak, and Stempniak after pick 100. So that is 9 NHLers (>100 games) after pick 30 in those 8 years, including 2 starting goalies, Backes, and guy we traded for Steen. That is quite a lot better than hitting on only 1 pick.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I’m claiming that you expect your 1st rounders to be dudes that play. It’s not impressive to hit on those players. Good players fall every year, good scouts find them. Your best odds of finding those players are in the top 100. You need to find those players, especially if you’re a mid-market team that struggles to attract prime-age free agents, and especially if you’re in a full rebuild. Only hitting on one in ~7 years of said full rebuild — and in the first year no less — caused us problems. It’s a valuable range in that you still have a good shot to find players that will provide value well-above their draft status. High value is available there every year. Jarmo found it once.

Blueston addressed one of the ways in which this is misleading but I’ll add that you seem to be suggesting that the hit rate for 1st rounders should be 100%. It’s not. Not really even close. It’s around 60-70% depending on how generous you want to be on what you consider to be a viable NHL career.

But beyond that, most of Jarmo’s 1st rounders way outperformed their draft position. Not only did they hit, but many hit big. Or at least big compared to the caliber of player typically drafted in that position.

Here’s the historical success rates of draft picks going back decades:
https://thehockeywriters.com/success-rates-of-nhl-draft-picks/#:~:text=1+ NHL Games: 90.2%,57.4% (35/61)

Oshie was a 24th overall pick. Let’s say his career is over - 695 pts in 1010 games. Only 3.4% of 24th overall picks have ever played 1000+ games. Only 8.6% have scored 500+ pts. Zero ever have scored 750+ pts and he came pretty darn close to that.

Berglund was a 25th overall pick - 326 pts in 717 games. Only 25.8% play 500+ games, 18.2% score 300+ pts

Perron was a 26th overall pick. 768 pts in 1138 games and counting. 3.6% of 26th overall picks have ever played 1000+ games or scored 750+ pts. Perron is one of two players to have ever accomplished either of those things.

Let’s look at defensive d-man Ian Cole. 193 pts in 826 games and counting. Only 15% of 18th overall picks have played 750+ games and 40% have scored 100+ points. He’s a defensive d-man and he’s still above average in terms of points scored one should expect at that draft position!

I’m getting bored with this exercise but click on the link and you’ll see Eller, Pietrangelo, Tarasenko and Schwartz greatly outperformed their draft positions as well.

I’ll agree that Jarmo’s hit rate in the 2nd and 3rd rounds wasn’t great but his hit rate in the 1st was WAY above average.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I’m claiming that you expect your 1st rounders to be dudes that play. It’s not impressive to hit on those players. Good players fall every year, good scouts find them. Your best odds of finding those players are in the top 100. You need to find those players, especially if you’re a mid-market team that struggles to attract prime-age free agents, and especially if you’re in a full rebuild. Only hitting on one in ~7 years of said full rebuild — and in the first year no less — caused us problems. It’s a valuable range in that you still have a good shot to find players that will provide value well-above their draft status. High value is available there every year. Jarmo found it once.

There are some seriously bad interpretations of your position.

I agree with you and understand what you’re saying. The others are imbuing upon your position whatever read between lines nonsense that suits them.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I could agree with a position that Bill Armstrong was better than Jarmo. In terms of the Backes core being a phase of mediocrity, I strongly push back against. We can certainly say they were in years of pretender status, but they were one of the strongest regular season teams around. Not being able to get past LA or Chicago shouldn't mean they were mediocre. And for the 2019 team, Jarmo's picks did more driving than Bill's picks, which is understandable since they were older, and that team was mostly a creation of Army through the various trades with pieces that both Jarmo and Bill provided him.

Jarmo and Davidson certainly left value on the table, but it was 100% a successful rebuild.