Proposal: Predictions for the Oilers lines, come playoffs.

[Jarvi]

Dineen maybe. I really doubt Nurse is suspended for any playoffs games though.

I don't think he deserves it, but who knows with this league. The ON guys also touched on that, and brought up something I didn't think about before. If the DOPS only gives him a slap on the wrist, it signals that it's OK to do the same to McDrai and not get any playoff games. Maybe dops realizes that and gives him a game to try and curb any retaliation.

 

[K1984]

I don't think he deserves it, but who knows with this league. The ON guys also touched on that, and brought up something I didn't think about. If the DOPS only gives him a slap on the wrist, it signals that it's OK to do the same to McDrai and not get any playoff games. Maybe dops realizes that and gives him a game to try and curb any retaliation.

DOPS doesn't have the ability to think (nor do they care) about extenuating ramifications of their suspension decisions. They also don't care about McDavid or Draisaitl getting targeted. It's pretty clear that the league doesn't give a rats ass about 29 or 97, or else little Mikey would have been suspended for the slew foot on Drai. Or Soucy would have got more than a single game for the cross check on McDavid last year. Isn't anywhere even close to their radar.

To be honest, I don't think that should be a suspendible play no matter who its on or when. Byfield isn't injured despite their attempts to make it look that way. If the Kings want to push 97 or 29 down and then graze them on the back of their helmet with their stick then they can be my guest if that's the worst they're going to get.

 

[bone]

I don't think he deserves it, but who knows with this league. The ON guys also touched on that, and brought up something I didn't think about. If the DOPS only gives him a slap on the wrist, it signals that it's OK to do the same to McDrai and not get any playoff games. Maybe dops realizes that and gives him a game to try and curb any retaliation.

So basically penalize an Edmonton player more than they would other players because the have two really good teammates, all in the name of protecting those 2 players? Sounds pretty much like NHL DoPS thinking. This is what's wrong with the league. They already adjust the number of penalties they'll call in a game based on whether those two are playing, now they'll increase the suspension to their teammates "to protect them".

PS Edmonton has had 2.66 PP per game with either of them in the lineup, 4.66 PP per game without them in the lineup.

PSS I doubt the league would factor what you say into the suspension. It would require the ability to think critically which clearly they lack.

 

[bone]

Since I touched on it in the previous post, here's an update to something I posted last week.

The Oilers have had 4 or more PPs in 22 of 81 games (27%) this year.

The Oilers have had 4 or more PPs in 14 out of 62 games (23%) with both McDavid and Draisaitl.
The Oilers have had 4 or more PPs in 7 out of 15 games (46%) without McDavid
The Oilers have had 4 or more PPs in 6 out of 10 games (60%) without Draisaitl.
The Oilers have had 4 or more PPs in 5 out of 6 games (83%) without either McDavid and Draisaitl.

Curious pattern here?

Going a step further they've had 5 or more PPs in 8 out of 62 games including:

3 out of 62 games (5%) with both 97 and 29 in the lineup
4 out of 15 games (27%) without McDavid
5 out of 10 games (50%) without Draisaitl
4 out of 6 games (67%) without either

Hmm.

 

[alphahelix]

Bingo. Feel like this is Groundhog Day, everyone was pearl clutching about the Kings last year too.

Three years in a row our best players have ruined their best players in head to head matchups. Could that change? Possibly with injuries and McDavid having an off year. But if everyone is healthy and playing up to standard I don't see why the outcome wouldn't be the same a 4th time.

Predictions last year were almost universal for an Oilers win in less than 7 games.

There has simply been a healthy respect for LA, who, truthfully, have a strong core and have some of the best 5-man defensive units in the game, and now Darcy Kuemper and a conservative coach. And Byfield at new heights. The truth is if you wanted to cook up a team designed to counter the Oilers, under the cap, it wouldn’t look much different than this. This LA team certainly deserves respect, and pundits clearly recognize that as the predictions are much different this time around.

 

[Heavy Dee]

Predictions last year were almost universal for an Oilers win in less than 7 games.

There has simply been a healthy respect for LA, who, truthfully, have a strong core and have some of the best 5-man defensive units in the game, and now Darcy Kuemper and a conservative coach. And Byfield at new heights. The truth is if you wanted to cook up a team designed to counter the Oilers, under the cap, it wouldn’t look much different than this. This LA team certainly deserves respect, and pundits clearly recognize that as the predictions are much different this time around.

I feel like it all depends on goaltending for the Oilers.

 

[K1984]

Since I touched on it in the previous post, here's an update to something I posted last week.

The Oilers have had 4 or more PPs in 22 of 81 games (27%) this year.

The Oilers have had 4 or more PPs in 14 out of 62 games (23%) with both McDavid and Draisaitl.
The Oilers have had 4 or more PPs in 7 out of 15 games (46%) without McDavid
The Oilers have had 4 or more PPs in 6 out of 10 games (60%) without Draisaitl.
The Oilers have had 4 or more PPs in 5 out of 6 games (83%) without either McDavid and Draisaitl.

Curious pattern here?

Going a step further they've had 5 or more PPs in 8 out of 62 games including:

3 out of 62 games (5%) with both 97 and 29 in the lineup
4 out of 15 games (27%) without McDavid
5 out of 10 games (50%) without Draisaitl
4 out of 6 games (67%) without either

Hmm.

Without looking, I'll bet that in a good portion of the games we got PPs with 29/97 we were getting blown out or the game was over anyways.

They never have a problem doing their job then.

 

[McShogun99]

I'm guessing that within 10 minutes of game 1 we'll see McDrai together playing about 24 minutes each for the rest of the series.

 

[K1900L]

If Kane actually does come back healthier than and superior to last season, Kane - Draisaitl - Podkolzin could really be a second line that can create severe damage to any opposing team. This would give the Oilers the chance to have a very solid third line as well, ideally with some scoring options.

 

[Jarvi]

So basically penalize an Edmonton player more than they would other players because the have two really good teammates, all in the name of protecting those 2 players? Sounds pretty much like NHL DoPS thinking. This is what's wrong with the league. They already adjust the number of penalties they'll call in a game based on whether those two are playing, now they'll increase the suspension to their teammates "to protect them".

PS Edmonton has had 2.66 PP per game with either of them in the lineup, 4.66 PP per game without them in the lineup.

PSS I doubt the league would factor what you say into the suspension. It would require the ability to think critically which clearly they lack.

I wasn't clear originally. In theory, the dops wouldn't care who LA targeted, just that a slap on the wrist now could lead to some more on the line stuff that could escalate in our coming series. We might care, if they target Mcdrai.

That's pretty nuts with the pp's though. You also gotta think we posess the puck a hell of a lot more with those two in the lineup as well, which should lead to even more PP's for us. However, i'm sure teams are more willing to take one when the engines that drive our offense are out.

 

[bone]

I wasn't clear originally. In theory, the dops wouldn't care who LA targeted, just that a slap on the wrist now could lead to some more on the line stuff that could escalate in our coming series. We might care, if they target Mcdrai.

That's pretty nuts with the pp's though. You also gotta think we posess the puck a hell of a lot more with those two in the lineup as well, which should lead to even more PP's for us. However, i'm sure teams are more willing to take one when the engines that drive our offense are out.

They are going to target McDrai regardless, just like they did the previous 3 years and just like Winnipeg did in the sweep and just like Vancouver did last year, and so on and so on. DoPS ain't going to stop it no matter what they do leading up to the series. Only Edmonton destroying LA on the PP, if the refs choose to call it, will slow them down like what happened after Game 3 last year when it became abundantly clear they couldn't risk undisciplined penalties.

For the 2nd part, I agree completely. You'd think they do more to earn the penalties when McDrai are possesing the puck but it doesn't happen, and conversely perhaps teams are more willing to cheat a bit when they know up to 3 of the regular 5 players from the PP aren't in the lineup. So it's not likely all on the refs, but it is still interesting particularly as Drai (the leading goal scorer in the league) being out seems to be the bigger influence than even McDavid being out.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

If Kane actually does come back healthier than and superior to last season, Kane - Draisaitl - Podkolzin could really be a second line that can create severe damage to any opposing team. This would give the Oilers the chance to have a very solid third line as well, ideally with some scoring options.

TBH we should not be breaking chemistry at this point

Keep:
Pod, Arvy together
J.skinner, Brown together

Mcdavid
Leon
Nuge

Top 3 centers

 

[bone]

Without looking, I'll bet that in a good portion of the games we got PPs with 29/97 we were getting blown out or the game was over anyways.

They never have a problem doing their job then.

Close.

The 3 with 5 or more with McDrai was the 6-1 loss vs. Columbus, the 6-3 win vs. Columbus where the lead was 2 or more from about 25 minutes in, and the 3-1 win vs. Ottawa where 3 of the PPs came in the final 7 minutes once the lead was 3-1.

The 11 games with 4 specifically though were mostly 1 goal games including 5 that went to overtime (8 1-goal games, 2 2-goals games and one blowout 7-1 win).

 

[FlameChampion]

Some of its injuries to Kane and Frederic.

But I personally think its kinda sad and pathetic that we have no idea what the forward lines are or what they even should be.

I don’t follow other teams that closely but I have a hard time imagining that other teams suffer the same problem that the Oilers do at least to this degree. Its been a problem for a couple seasons.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I have no idea what the lines will look like and who will even be available. Assuming that everyone is able to play:

Skinner-McDavid-Brown
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Kane-RNH-Hyman
Frederic-Henrique-Perry

Walman-Bouchard
Nurse-Stetcher
Kulak-Emberson


I just don't see a spot for Kapanen, Janmark and Ryan. If Frederic is still out I wonder if we keep Jones in to continue bringing some physicality to the line-up?

 

[MessierThanThou]

I have no idea what the lines will look like and who will even be available. Assuming that everyone is able to play:

Skinner-McDavid-Brown
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Kane-RNH-Hyman
Frederic-Henrique-Perry

Walman-Bouchard
Nurse-Stetcher
Kulak-Emberson


I just don't see a spot for Kapanen, Janmark and Ryan. If Frederic is still out I wonder if we keep Jones in to continue bringing some physicality to the line-up?

Knob loves Janmark, unfortunately, so I think we'll be seeing him over Perry.

 

[Jarvi]

I have no idea what the lines will look like and who will even be available. Assuming that everyone is able to play:

Skinner-McDavid-Brown
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Kane-RNH-Hyman
Frederic-Henrique-Perry

Walman-Bouchard
Nurse-Stetcher
Kulak-Emberson


I just don't see a spot for Kapanen, Janmark and Ryan. If Frederic is still out I wonder if we keep Jones in to continue bringing some physicality to the line-up?

If Trent can't play, I go Janmark. He might not produce much, but scoring a SCF G7 goal gets you into the lineup over Max Jones, and he is a demon on the PK. His speed could be useful on that line too.

 

[AlanHUK]

Since I touched on it in the previous post, here's an update to something I posted last week.

The Oilers have had 4 or more PPs in 22 of 81 games (27%) this year.

The Oilers have had 4 or more PPs in 14 out of 62 games (23%) with both McDavid and Draisaitl.
The Oilers have had 4 or more PPs in 7 out of 15 games (46%) without McDavid
The Oilers have had 4 or more PPs in 6 out of 10 games (60%) without Draisaitl.
The Oilers have had 4 or more PPs in 5 out of 6 games (83%) without either McDavid and Draisaitl.

Curious pattern here?

Going a step further they've had 5 or more PPs in 8 out of 62 games including:

3 out of 62 games (5%) with both 97 and 29 in the lineup
4 out of 15 games (27%) without McDavid
5 out of 10 games (50%) without Draisaitl
4 out of 6 games (67%) without either

Hmm.

How does this compare with other teams missing their top 2 players?

I'm of the belief the league does everything they can to keep the illusion of parity, so am expecting it to be similar if say Makar/MacKinnon are out of the Avs lineup

 

[Mcnofool6110]

Game 1?
Skinner-McD-Hyman
Kane-Draisaitl-Brown
Podz-RNH-Arvidsson
Janmark-Henrique-Perry
Kapanen in case Hyman can't go.

Game 2?
Skinner-McD-Hyman
Kane-Draisaitl-Frederic
Pod-RNH-Arvidsson
Perry-Henrique-Brown
Janmark in every 2nd game to give Perry a break.

--
Walman-Bouch
Nurse-Stech (Kulak)
Kulak (Gleason)-Emberson
Gleason if Stech can't go

 

[Captain Controversy]

I'm taking another swing since Ekholm is out and the lines have changed recently.

Skinner - Mcdavid - Brown
Hyman Draisaitl Kane
Podz Nuge Arvidson
Janmark Henrique Perry

Kulak Nurse
Walman Bouchard
Stetcher Emberson
Brown

Picard
Skinner

If Frederic comes back then I can imagine him on nuges line.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

I have no idea what the lines will look like and who will even be available. Assuming that everyone is able to play:

Skinner-McDavid-Brown
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Kane-RNH-Hyman
Frederic-Henrique-Perry

Walman-Bouchard
Nurse-Stetcher
Kulak-Emberson


I just don't see a spot for Kapanen, Janmark and Ryan. If Frederic is still out I wonder if we keep Jones in to continue bringing some physicality to the line-up?

I think you are very close. Kane and Hyman could be swapped with Skinner and Brown, but I wouldn't. Also Kane and Frederic could be swapped. Kane and Rico have played together before

I also think when everyone is healthy Janmark plays over Perry.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

I'm taking another swing since Ekholm is out and the lines have changed recently.

Skinner - Mcdavid - Brown
Hyman Draisaitl Kane
Podz Nuge Arvidson
Janmark Henrique Perry

Kulak Nurse
Walman Bouchard
Stetcher Emberson
Brown

Picard
Skinner

If Frederic comes back then I can imagine him on nuges line.

Why are we breaking up all the chemistry. If Frederic is back you keep Podkolzin and Arvy together.

Also there is no way Hyman plays left wing.

 

[russ99]

I have no idea what the lines will look like and who will even be available. Assuming that everyone is able to play:

Skinner-McDavid-Brown
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Kane-RNH-Hyman
Frederic-Henrique-Perry

Walman-Bouchard
Nurse-Stetcher
Kulak-Emberson


I just don't see a spot for Kapanen, Janmark and Ryan. If Frederic is still out I wonder if we keep Jones in to continue bringing some physicality to the line-up?

I think the real issue there is own zone defensive faceoff and PK center.

Henrique is not good at this, ideally he should be a winger and one of Kapanen, Janmark or Ryan should be in. Ryan would be it if he hadn't faded so badly.

 

[Louis Cypher]

I think the lines will be different at home vs in LA.

At home we can stack and in LA i see them spreading out the talent with the defensive players.

 

[bone]

How does this compare with other teams missing their top 2 players?

I'm of the belief the league does everything they can to keep the illusion of parity, so am expecting it to be similar if say Makar/MacKinnon are out of the Avs lineup

That would take too long to compile, but I suspect it would have some similar effects. My comments are less about suggesting an anti-Edmonton agenda and moreso frustration that it's all just game management.

The league and its officials are convinced that missed calls impact games less than making a call that may turn out to be wrong and so the likeliness of the call leading to a game deciding goal influences whether they will call it. It's a dumb mentality but examples like what I show are evidence supporting it.