Predict the Atlantic Standings

[The90]

I mean the team sucks on paper but it's a easy parity league. Making the playoffs/winning a round is not very hard/impressive the bar is pretty low for Habs since as fans all we can ask for is making the playoffs at this point with the team we have

I don’t think it sucks. I really don’t. You have nice depth and a good goalie, very good in the playoffs. I just think they’re in a tough division at this point and could end up as a not in the playoffs, not in the lottery tweener.

 

[bobholly39]

Toronto completely dominated Montreal outside of game 7 (Habs were the much better team in game 7). Carey Price prolonged that series. Toronto are objectively better and outplayed the Habs in most of their series. Habs pulled off the win, so kudos there, but it is not indicative of how both teams would fare in 82-game season.

Habs did not play "much much" better than the Avs. They had a better result. Habs did well against Vegas, but the difference was mostly goaltending. Isles pushed the Bolts like the Habs never even came close to pushing them. They employed a similar style to the Habs and did it better. They are a much better comparable to the Habs than the Habs are to the Avs. Neither performance are really indicative of how each team will fare this year, I agree... but you are the one who said the Habs finished "2nd" and were the second best team in the league... which is just false. They were SCF finalists, but they were clearly not the second best team.

If you want to use a Cinderella run to justify an unrealistic prediction, go ahead, we'll just have to agree to disagree. You call it an optimistic prediction... but it is mostly unrealistic. Could happen, weirder things have happened, but with the data we have today, it is not a prediction that makes much sense. But, hey, it is the NHL and there is a lot of parity, so maybe you will be right at the end. I certainly hope so for your fanbase.

Florida finished 4th in the league, 2nd in their division, first in the 'atlantic' this past season. And going into last season - I guarantee you any prediction of success for Florida probably hinged on "if Bob bounces back, Florida will do ____". But - Bob sucked, and they still performed that well. Why? They didn't exactly have a roster overhaul going into the season last year. Couple years ago Calgary won their conference, while sucking since as well as the year prior. I think you're trying too hard to claim I can't predict my teams will finish 2nd - they absolutely can. Anything can happen in this league. Didn't Colorado go from an all-time bad season to a playoff team a few years ago? It's really not that unrealistic.

Habs did much better against Vegas than Colorado did, yes.
Isles did much better than Habs did against Tampa, yes.

So if you're using that logic to say "see, Isles are way better than Habs", why can't I come back and use similar logic and say "see, Habs are much better than Avs". Because teams have bad series sometimes, and one series shouldn't be used to predict an 82 game season.

My only argument remains here - everyone around here seems convinced Habs won't make the playoffs, and I think more posters have them in 6th in division than in the playoffs. I think that's underselling them a lot, and I think they should be given a tad more respect after their performance in the playoffs. Teams ride playoff momentum into next season all the time. Look no further then the Isles who unexpectedly made playoffs and went really far a couple of years ago, and continued success in following years despite a roster most tend to underestimate. Or - Vegas after their inaugural season way over exceeding, expectations, and then following through with continued success.

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

I see not many believe in Montreal.... (still not)

People forget that Shea Weber's role was not that big/important last season to begin with,
so losing Weber means less to none for them.

What comes to Price...surgeries make you better, not worse..
and Price is believed to be ready and healthy when the next season begins.
- Habs have a good goalie duo in Price & Allen

All the Habs young, star players are now 1 season more experienced, better, stronger and what not.

The addition's of David Savard to D, Mike Hoffman and Cedric Paquette to F are significant ones.

D Chris Wideman is a wildcard, who comes from the KHL, so is F Mathieu Perrault, who joins them from Wpeg.

-----

Not sure what people see when they look at Habs roster, but they should look at it again and give it more time and thought

Its strengths are once again better than average depth combined with a strong goaltending tandem, and in my view, improved (albeit micromanaging) coaching. Some of these strengths are somewhat undermined by the departure of Danault and Weber's recovery, but only to a degree. Possible wildcard also in Norlinder, though Wideman is more likely to contribute right away. Moreover, if anything, the depth is even better, even if the star players are still developing. I also see a year of Caufield and Hoffman potentiating the offense significantly.

 

[bobholly39]

I don’t think it sucks. I really don’t. You have nice depth and a good goalie, very good in the playoffs. I just think they’re in a tough division at this point and could end up as a not in the playoffs, not in the lottery tweener.

I agree that the Habs are in a tough division and i'm not trying to convince others they should be looked at as some giant favorites. I just think other teams have question marks too.

I honestly don't understand why everyone is so certain Florida will be a top team.

1. Huge question marks in nets. Knight is young and unpredictable - Bob has sucked big time now 2 years in a row, including playoffs.
2. Florida has only had one strong regular season in the past 4 years. It was a really good season last year, but recent league history is full of teams who suck for a while, than have a good season, and go back to sucking.

Florida might do great again - i'm not saying it's impossible.
Florida however might also come back down to earth and go back to 'bubble' territory.

Majority seem so certain they will be a top team, and I don't agree with those odds at all. It's possible, but nowhere near certain

 

[Mudz]

Toronto completely dominated Montreal outside of game 7 (Habs were the much better team in game 7). Carey Price prolonged that series. Toronto are objectively better and outplayed the Habs in most of their series. Habs pulled off the win, so kudos there, but it is not indicative of how both teams would fare in 82-game season.

Are you sure you were tuned in the right games? Mtl dominated game 1, game 5-6 (outside late 3rd periods spurts ) and game 7.

If you want to use a Cinderella run to justify an unrealistic prediction, go ahead, we'll just have to agree to disagree. You call it an optimistic prediction... but it is mostly unrealistic. Could happen, weirder things have happened, but with the data we have today, it is not a prediction that makes much sense. But, hey, it is the NHL and there is a lot of parity, so maybe you will be right at the end. I certainly hope so for your fanbase.

Which data? distance traveled by teams and timezone crossed last season. Injuries to key players? Number of game played by week after covid breaks?

Reality is that you could easily make a case for MTL to finish between 2- 13. Where you put them in this only shows your personal bias.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

Florida finished 4th in the league, 2nd in their division, first in the 'atlantic' this past season. And going into last season - I guarantee you any prediction of success for Florida probably hinged on "if Bob bounces back, Florida will do ____". But - Bob sucked, and they still performed that well. Why? They didn't exactly have a roster overhaul going into the season last year. Couple years ago Calgary won their conference, while sucking since as well as the year prior. I think you're trying too hard to claim I can't predict my teams will finish 2nd - they absolutely can. Anything can happen in this league. Didn't Colorado go from an all-time bad season to a playoff team a few years ago? It's really not that unrealistic.

Habs did much better against Vegas than Colorado did, yes.
Isles did much better than Habs did against Tampa, yes.

So if you're using that logic to say "see, Isles are way better than Habs", why can't I come back and use similar logic and say "see, Habs are much better than Avs". Because teams have bad series sometimes, and one series shouldn't be used to predict an 82 game season.

My only argument remains here - everyone around here seems convinced Habs won't make the playoffs, and I think more posters have them in 6th in division than in the playoffs. I think that's underselling them a lot, and I think they should be given a tad more respect after their performance in the playoffs. Teams ride playoff momentum into next season all the time. Look no further then the Isles who unexpectedly made playoffs and went really far a couple of years ago, and continued success in following years despite a roster most tend to underestimate. Or - Vegas after their inaugural season way over exceeding, expectations, and then following through with continued success.

The Habs could also win the President trophy. I could also get hit by a bus tomorrow. Both things could happen, yet both are rather unlikely.

Weird results happen in hockey all the time. That much is true. Habs could very well finish 2nd... it is still a bad prediction based on a whim more than actual analysis. It is fair, it just does not make much sense. Could happen, sure. But you are trying to sell us on something that would be a huge surprise if it happened.

Florida could badly regress, that's true too. However, looking at their roster, they should not.

With the Habs, it is not even that they would regress. They have been middle of the pack for the last 5 years, missing the playoffs more than they make them. Make-up of the team is similar to the team that finished 18th last year. You can argue until you are blue in the face that they will be better, they very well might be, but you also have to look at their competition and their competition is better positioned than they are.

Now, I'll just agree to disagree and move on. Feel free to brag if you end up being right, I'll gladly congratulate you on a great season... it still will have been a huge surprise.

 

[cowboy82nd]

1. Florida - The most improved team in the NHL, maybe the best roster in the entire NHL? -
2. Montreal - You won't get to the SC Finals by just luck -
3. Tampa - Bolts are not as nearly as good what last season, but their top guys will win them 3rd spot -
4. Boston - Average/Good team, is better what 5, 6, 7 and 8, but not good enough what 3, 2, 1
5. Toronto - Roster has improved from last season, but the 4 teams ahead, are better -
6. Ottawa - Keeps improving, keeps challenging, small margins -
7. Detroit - There are lots of quality young pieces, but really bad coaching hurts them -
8. Buffalo - What is or are the Buffalo Sabres? -

makes the play-offs
misses the play-offs

Didn't people say the same thing about Dallas the year before?

 

[swiftwin]

ill be shocked it Ottawa finish above Montreal.

I'll be shocked if Montreal finish above Ottawa.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

I'll be shocked if Montreal finish above Ottawa.

I won't be shocked by either of these results.

 

[Holymakinaw]

1. Tampa
2. Toronto
3. Florida
4. Boston
5. Ottawa
6. Montreal
7. Detroit
8. Buffalo

 

[pb1300]

Florida finished 4th in the league, 2nd in their division, first in the 'atlantic' this past season. And going into last season - I guarantee you any prediction of success for Florida probably hinged on "if Bob bounces back, Florida will do ____". But - Bob sucked, and they still performed that well. Why? They didn't exactly have a roster overhaul going into the season last year. Couple years ago Calgary won their conference, while sucking since as well as the year prior. I think you're trying too hard to claim I can't predict my teams will finish 2nd - they absolutely can. Anything can happen in this league. Didn't Colorado go from an all-time bad season to a playoff team a few years ago? It's really not that unrealistic.

Habs did much better against Vegas than Colorado did, yes.
Isles did much better than Habs did against Tampa, yes.

So if you're using that logic to say "see, Isles are way better than Habs", why can't I come back and use similar logic and say "see, Habs are much better than Avs". Because teams have bad series sometimes, and one series shouldn't be used to predict an 82 game season.

My only argument remains here - everyone around here seems convinced Habs won't make the playoffs, and I think more posters have them in 6th in division than in the playoffs. I think that's underselling them a lot, and I think they should be given a tad more respect after their performance in the playoffs. Teams ride playoff momentum into next season all the time. Look no further then the Isles who unexpectedly made playoffs and went really far a couple of years ago, and continued success in following years despite a roster most tend to underestimate. Or - Vegas after their inaugural season way over exceeding, expectations, and then following through with continued success.

What are you talking about? Florida had a huge turnover from two seasons ago to last season. They had nearly half a new roster, including new assistant coaches. And the season before last, they were right there in the hunt for the playoffs, a couple of points behind Toronto, before COVID. So its not like they came out of completely nowhere. And even with Bob being average by how good we consider him to be, the Panthers were still a .610+ team in games that he played. And what did they do this offseason? They got rid of dead weight on the blueline, and added a top six forward, giving them arguably the deepest forward group in the league. So going by what you said, they should do well this season because they didnt have a roster overhaul from last seasons team, all they did was tweak and improve on it.

And teams might ride previous playoff momentum into next season, but you have to look at what they did to their roster, along with the other teams they are fighting with for a playoff spot. The players they lost versus the players they signed doesnt make them significantly better, and losing Price and Weber certainly doesnt help either. If the Habs had the run they had last season, and this offseason re-signed Danault, traded for Eichel, and didnt lose Price or Weber, do you think people in this thread would be placing them 4/5/6? Forgetting about what they did last playoffs, talent wise, I dont think they are more talented than Florida and Tampa, and I have a hard time putting them ahead of Boston and Toronto. Ill take into consideration what they did in the playoffs, but with the moves that were made, and the losses due to injury, that certainly has to be taken into account as well.

I agree that the Habs are in a tough division and i'm not trying to convince others they should be looked at as some giant favorites. I just think other teams have question marks too.

I honestly don't understand why everyone is so certain Florida will be a top team.

1. Huge question marks in nets. Knight is young and unpredictable - Bob has sucked big time now 2 years in a row, including playoffs.
2. Florida has only had one strong regular season in the past 4 years. It was a really good season last year, but recent league history is full of teams who suck for a while, than have a good season, and go back to sucking.

Florida might do great again - i'm not saying it's impossible.
Florida however might also come back down to earth and go back to 'bubble' territory.

Majority seem so certain they will be a top team, and I don't agree with those odds at all. It's possible, but nowhere near certain

If Florida doesnt do good, its because they underachieved. This crap about what they did years ago really needs to stop. New management, improved coaching, roster turnover, a lot happened since Zito took over.

And they dont have "huge" question marks in net. They have question marks just like every team in the division, other than Tampa. But they do have a better percentage than other teams to be good in net. And Id take my chances with Knight and Bob over any team in the division other than the obvious.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Tampa
Toronto
Florida
Bruins
-----------
Habs
Sens
Wings
Sabres

 

[The90]

Are you sure you were tuned in the right games? Mtl dominated game 1, game 5-6 (outside late 3rd periods spurts ) and game 7.



Which data? distance traveled by teams and timezone crossed last season. Injuries to key players? Number of game played by week after covid breaks?

Reality is that you could easily make a case for MTL to finish between 2- 13. Where you put them in this only shows your personal bias.

Lol. Montreal was dominated in both games 5 and 6. You are either crazy biased, or very unknowledgeable about hockey. It’s possible for a team to play well and lose, and for a team to be outplayed and win. In this case Carey price provided door number 2, x2.

Go look at whatever statistic you want, and re check your eye test. But you won’t find very many fans who honestly say montreal outplayed Toronto in any game in that series other than game 7 when Toronto laid a dud.

I don’t think Toronto is an all world team, they for sure have their flaws. But in that series, they were absolutely the better team save for game 7 and to a much lesser degree, game 1. Outside of that, Toronto skated all over Montreal.

 

[r0bert8841]

Wow lots of people sleeping on Detroit. I understand having them miss the playoffs. But it seems 90% of these lists have Ottawa higher in the standings than Detroit. Since the Vrana-Mantha trade they played 500 hockey despite missing their whole first line to injury. I expect next season to be at least 500 hockey.

Also the Habs hype is pretty ridiculous. They played at an 86 point pace last year despite being in a terrible division. Then they lose their captain. And Danault. I get that they had an awesome playoff run, but regular season hockey is way different than the playoffs and they do not have a team for regular season success. They didn't last year and they definitely don't this year.

Florida
Tampa
Boston
Toronto
Detroit
Montreal
Ottawa
Buffalo

 

[Essenege]

I expect the top 5 teams in the Atlantic division will dominate the Metro, I see Washington, Pittsburgh and Canes as regressing, Rangers improved. Toronto is still a solid team, vastly underrated, Montreal were solid with healthy squad (first 30 games last season, playoffs), I expect them to very slightly regress compared to those stretches. Boston/Florida are good teams too. I see NYI, Caps and Car. Rangers and Pens just between 95-98 pats and barely missing.



Toronto 110
Tampa 109
Montreal 103
Florida 102
Boston 100
Ottawa 90
Detroit 78
Buffalo 70

 

[Essenege]

Lol. Montreal was dominated in both games 5 and 6. You are either crazy biased, or very unknowledgeable about hockey. It’s possible for a team to play well and lose, and for a team to be outplayed and win. In this case Carey price provided door number 2, x2.

Go look at whatever statistic you want, and re check your eye test. But you won’t find very many fans who honestly say montreal outplayed Toronto in any game in that series other than game 7 when Toronto laid a dud.

I don’t think Toronto is an all world team, they for sure have their flaws. But in that series, they were absolutely the better team save for game 7 and to a much lesser degree, game 1. Outside of that, Toronto skated all over Montreal.

Montreal had the edge in game 6 in expected goals…should have been 3-0 exiting the first period but Campbell did some magic. They dominated the OT but were lucky to get there.

Habs dominated game 5 until they were up 3-0 ,scoring chances shows that too

 

[Beezeral]

Florida. Take the past 4 years combined - they have 0 playoff wins, and only 1 above average regular season. They were very good last season, but does that guarantee future success?

If we are taking the last 4 years combined, the Panthers have had a better regular season record 3 of the previous 4 seasons. They have also played at a 95+ point pace in 3 of the past 4 years. But according to you, that only equals 1 above average regular season. WAT? How is last year not a predictor of future success but the prior 4 years are? You are talking yourself in circles trying to discount the Panthers.

The NHL of the past 10 years is full of teams who had a great unexpected surge one year - and everyone expected them to repeat - but instead they went back to mediocrity. To me - that's Florida until proven otherwise.

And those one hit wonders usually have huge analytics red flags. Something the Panthers don't have. Their analytics are actually extremely strong.

Big question mark on their goalies.

Price last season: .901 Sv% -1.5 Goals Saved above Expected
Bobrovsky last season: .906 Sv%, -8.1 Goals Saved above Expected

Seems like both teams have a question mark in goal...

Florida finished 4th in the league, 2nd in their division, first in the 'atlantic' this past season. And going into last season - I guarantee you any prediction of success for Florida probably hinged on "if Bob bounces back, Florida will do ____". But - Bob sucked, and they still performed that well. Why? They didn't exactly have a roster overhaul going into the season last year. Couple years ago Calgary won their conference, while sucking since as well as the year prior. I think you're trying too hard to claim I can't predict my teams will finish 2nd - they absolutely can. Anything can happen in this league. Didn't Colorado go from an all-time bad season to a playoff team a few years ago? It's really not that unrealistic.

Here is where you really show your ass in this discussion. They swapped out 7 forwards including 4 players in the top 6. They brought in 4 new defenseman as well. To say the team didn't receive an overhaul is absolutely absurd.

Did the Panthers benefit from breakout seasons from previously unknown guys like Forsling and Verheaghe? Absolutely. But those breakout seasons are backed up by strong analytics. It's not a wild prediction to expect them to recreate that success.

So if you're using that logic to say "see, Isles are way better than Habs", why can't I come back and use similar logic and say "see, Habs are much better than Avs". Because teams have bad series sometimes, and one series shouldn't be used to predict an 82 game season.

This argument is insanely flawed because the only thing the Habs did better than the Avs is play a good series. A 7 game sample size. By any other metric, the Avalanche were better than the Habs.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Detroit will make the playoffs.
Berggren, Raymond, Seider will be #1, 2, 3 in Calder votes.

 

[Theodore450]

Florida finished 4th in the league, 2nd in their division, first in the 'atlantic' this past season. And going into last season - I guarantee you any prediction of success for Florida probably hinged on "if Bob bounces back, Florida will do ____". But - Bob sucked, and they still performed that well. Why? They didn't exactly have a roster overhaul going into the season last year. Couple years ago Calgary won their conference, while sucking since as well as the year prior. I think you're trying too hard to claim I can't predict my teams will finish 2nd - they absolutely can. Anything can happen in this league. Didn't Colorado go from an all-time bad season to a playoff team a few years ago? It's really not that unrealistic.

Habs did much better against Vegas than Colorado did, yes.
Isles did much better than Habs did against Tampa, yes.

So if you're using that logic to say "see, Isles are way better than Habs", why can't I come back and use similar logic and say "see, Habs are much better than Avs". Because teams have bad series sometimes, and one series shouldn't be used to predict an 82 game season.

My only argument remains here - everyone around here seems convinced Habs won't make the playoffs, and I think more posters have them in 6th in division than in the playoffs. I think that's underselling them a lot, and I think they should be given a tad more respect after their performance in the playoffs. Teams ride playoff momentum into next season all the time. Look no further then the Isles who unexpectedly made playoffs and went really far a couple of years ago, and continued success in following years despite a roster most tend to underestimate. Or - Vegas after their inaugural season way over exceeding, expectations, and then following through with continued success.

Your a 100% correct. It’s funny because I’m a Florida panthers fan 2nd and no Drieger is gonna hurt if Bob sucks. And forsling playing like a top 4 is that a flash in the pan? Atlantic is gonna be a mess and the habs are definitely on the same plane as Boston and Toronto and Florida. All these teams have flaws it’s just the habs have no flashy names so people won’t pick them. Actual rosters habs are still a playoff team.

 

[Beezeral]

Wow lots of people sleeping on Detroit. I understand having them miss the playoffs. But it seems 90% of these lists have Ottawa higher in the standings than Detroit. Since the Vrana-Mantha trade they played 500 hockey despite missing their whole first line to injury. I expect next season to be at least 500 hockey.

Also the Habs hype is pretty ridiculous. They played at an 86 point pace last year despite being in a terrible division. Then they lose their captain. And Danault. I get that they had an awesome playoff run, but regular season hockey is way different than the playoffs and they do not have a team for regular season success. They didn't last year and they definitely don't this year.

Florida
Tampa
Boston
Toronto
Detroit
Montreal
Ottawa
Buffalo

nobody is sleeping on detroit. they just aren't very good. it would take everything going their way to finish 5th in the division.

 

[Evergreen]

1. Tampa Bay
2. Florida
3. Toronto
4. Boston

5. Montreal


6. Ottawa

7. Detroit




8. Buffalo

 

[swiftwin]

Wow lots of people sleeping on Detroit. I understand having them miss the playoffs. But it seems 90% of these lists have Ottawa higher in the standings than Detroit. Since the Vrana-Mantha trade they played 500 hockey despite missing their whole first line to injury. I expect next season to be at least 500 hockey.

Also the Habs hype is pretty ridiculous. They played at an 86 point pace last year despite being in a terrible division. Then they lose their captain. And Danault. I get that they had an awesome playoff run, but regular season hockey is way different than the playoffs and they do not have a team for regular season success. They didn't last year and they definitely don't this year.

Florida
Tampa
Boston
Toronto
Detroit
Montreal
Ottawa
Buffalo

I mean, since the Vrana-Mantha trade, Ottawa went 10-3-1 despite missing Chabot for a chunk of these games (.750, 3rd best record in the league in that time frame).

 

[Blowfish]

Toronto is a pretty good season team, I'm pretty sure they'll be over Boston who've lost quite a few feathers in the last several years, and now lost an important center while Bergeron and Marchand aren't getting any younger.

Every year the Boston Bruins aren't getting any younger comments....Love it!

 

[pb1300]

Every year the Boston Bruins aren't getting any younger comments....Love it!

Marchand > the much younger Matthews

They did lose Krecji though, and now have depth issues at center.

 

[Lays]

1. Tampa-I don’t think they threepeat. Losing that entire 3rd line is huge

2. Panthers-Zito has done a very good job here and they’ve improved from last season. Weegar/Ekblad are underrated, and they have high end depth now.

3. Leafs-I think they got worse this season and won’t be able to bully around the North division again. 3rd seems fine for them. I see another first round loss though. Awful depth, bad goaltending, mediocre defense but of course have AM, MM, WN, JT to carry them in the regular season

4. Bruins-they got weaker too but it depends how their LHD and forward depth hold up.

5. Ottawa-Really like their rebuild progress, I think a lot of guys take the next step next season. Guys like Stutzle, Tkachuk, Pinto, etc.

6. Montreal-lucky run, bad roster

7. Buffalo

8. Detroit

Overall: easy division