Predict the Atlantic Standings

[Golden_Jet]

The way I am reading these boards expectations are very high. Habs fans seem to think their team due to the run, is a top team in the league. I think they are going to miss the playoffs by a substantial amount.

I think most teams in the league would think they will make the playoffs if they had a SCF run, including your own team vs saying they will miss by a substantial amount.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

The way I am reading these boards expectations are very high. Habs fans seem to think their team due to the run, is a top team in the league. I think they are going to miss the playoffs by a substantial amount.

The Board's expectations are high? I literally went through all the predictions in this thread and the vast majority have the Canadiens anywhere from 4-6 in the division. As for Habs fans, I don't know which ones you are referring to? Sure there are always a minority that will expect a cup from a team that was just a tad over .500 in points % but the vast majority you are referring to, I don't see it. They were a .527 points % team last year. I don't see them dropping to .427 %. This would be a vast disappointment. As for getting back to the cup finals, I think only one team would be vastly disappointed if they do not make it back, that is TB.

 

[bert]

I think most teams in the league would think they will make the playoffs if they had a SCF run, including your own team vs saying they will miss by a substantial amount.

If my team lost the exact essence that made them competitive and only squeeked into the playoffs because of a strange year two seasons in a row no I dont think id expect them to be a good team. I am a pretty big realist though.

 

[bert]

The Board's expectations are high? I literally went through all the predictions in this thread and the vast majority have the Canadiens anywhere from 4-6 in the division. As for Habs fans, I don't know which ones you are referring to? Sure there are always a minority that will expect a cup from a team that was just a tad over .500 in points % but the vast majority you are referring to, I don't see it. They were a .527 points % team last year. I don't see them dropping to .427 %. This would be a vast disappointment. As for getting back to the cup finals, I think only one team would be vastly disappointed if they do not make it back, that is TB.

Yes none habs fans have them out of the playoffs. The ones that all have them in are from Montreal.

Thats under the assumption that .527 would get them in this year or last year for that matter. They were the 9th best team in the East last year but got in due to divisions. This year it will be even harder to get in. The east is better and they got worse as a team.

 

[Fledgemyhedge]

This is going to be a very disappointing season for Habs fans. They have got worse in just about every way possible outside of goaltending. A team that wouldnt have made the playoffs last year if not for Covid. They all bought in and played a great team game due to leadership. Weber, Perry and Danault are gone. Two very short off seasons. I just dont see it.

Probably worse off for goaltending aswell with the price injury. Glad we got to enjoy some playoff hockey last season

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I'm a little surprised that Corey Perry isn't mentioned as one of the losses the Habs had this off-season that could affect their performance.

I know he's no longer the star winger he was in Anaheim, but he provided a lot of that veteran character to the bottom six that helped them in their Cup run. Players like him are exactly the type of bottom six veterans you see on competing teams.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Yes none habs fans have them out of the playoffs. The ones that all have them in are from Montreal.

Thats under the assumption that .527 would get them in this year or last year for that matter. They were the 9th best team in the East last year but got in due to divisions. This year it will be even harder to get in. The east is better and they got worse as a team.

Listen, I am not a Habs fan, but it is reasonable to expect Suzuki and Caulfield who they didn't have for the majority of the regular season improve. They lost Weber, and who knows if he would have been effective this season being hurt with a serviceable replacement in Savard who just won the cup. Romanov should be ready to take on a bigger role also now that he is not a rookie. They also added Dvorak and Hoffman. Losing Perry will hurt, Danault's checking can be replaced, but losing him is not like losing a #1C. I just don't see how they are far worse than a .527 points % team that they were last season than you are claiming they will be. They can either make or miss the playoffs. Either would not be a major surprise.

 

[bert]

Listen, I am not a Habs fan, but it is reasonable to expect Suzuki and Caulfield who they didn't have for the majority of the regular season improve. They lost Weber, and who knows if he would have been effective this season being hurt with a serviceable replacement in Savard who just won the cup. They also added Dvorak and Hoffman. Losing Perry will hurt, Danault's checking can be replaced, but losing him is not like losing a #1C. I just don't see how they are far worse than a .527 points % team than you are claiming them to be. They can either make or miss the playoffs. Either would be a major surprise.

The reason that Montreal team had success is because of the defensive and team buy in built around its leadership core. Outside of Price they lost the three most important elements of that in Weber, Perry and Danault. They aren't going to out skill anyone with that roster. Secondly outside of Savard who is no where near the player Weber is they brought in players with questionable attitudes while subtracting fierce competitors. That teams leadership core and mantra has been dismantled and they aren't any better on paper from a skill perspective. You talk about replacing what Danault brought as being simple... Players like Hoffman and Wideman have history of being selfish, while replacing some of the most storied winners in modern hockey.

Suzuki was really good last year with or without Caufield, he would have to take a massive step in order to make that much of a bigger difference. Sure Caufield will help, for an entire season. Will Toffoli score at the highest pace of his career again?... Short off season lost the thing that gave them an identity. I dont see it.

Again I have been wrong before but I just think its going to be a tough season, they have to get off to a good start.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

The reason that Montreal team had success is because of the defensive and team buy in built around its leadership core. Outside of Price they lost the three most important elements of that in Weber, Perry and Danault. They aren't going to out skill anyone with that roster. Secondly outside of Savard who is no where near the player Weber is they brought in players with questionable attitudes while subtracting fierce competitors. That teams leadership core and mantra has been dismantled and they aren't any better on paper from a skill perspective. You talk about replacing what Danault brought as being simple... Seems like you are pushing an agenda with statements like that. Players like Hoffman and Wideman have history of being selfish, while replacing some of the most storied winners in modern hockey.

Suzuki was really good last year with or without Caufield, he would have to take a massive step in order to make that much of a bigger difference. Sure Caufield will help, for an entire season. Will Toffoli score at the highest pace of his career again?... Short off season lost the thing that gave them an identity. I dont see it.

Sounds like you are basing a vast decline on leadership and not talent. Kind of a stretch or wishful thinking from my point of view. My point is they were only a .527 team last year. Based on the moves they made, and a reasonable improvement of their young players this season, I don't see how anyone can catagorically claim they are vastly worse this season as you are claiming. You can make a prediction, anyone can, but if they play .500 next year, would this be vastly worse? It would be similar to this past season. They would have to play at least at a .425 clip to be considered vastly worse.

 

[bert]

Sounds like you are basing a vast decline on leadership and not talent. Kind of a stretch or wishful thinking from my point of view. My point is they were only a .527 team last year. Based on the moves they made, and a reasonable improvement of their young players this season, I don't see how anyone can catagorically claim they are vastly worse this season as you are claiming. You can make a prediction, anyone can, but if they play .500 next year, would this be vastly worse? It would be similar to this past season. They would have to play at least at a .425 clip to be considered vastly worse.

Well we all see hockey in different ways I guess. Cinderella teams win and come together due to leadership, compete and buy in. They lost the leadership core that instilled these standards in coming to the rink every day. It maybe a stretch or wishfull thinking in your opinion but historically thats not the case. The 55 games is a better representation of that team than the 20 on a playoff run. Again they werent a playoff team last year, they made it due to the divisions. That's the team I think they are closer to this year which is a non playoff team. While yes their young players will improve, but so will other teams. They are also in a much harder division. Then I take into account a short offseason and alot of turnover. That is why I think they will be worse and miss the playoffs.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

The bar isn't exactly that high for Montreal, as they've proven that all they'll need is a seat at the playoff table to potentially be a contender.

Yes, Tampa Boston and Florida should almost assuredly be better than Montreal...but the rest of the Atlantic are middling teams.

Two season's past Toronto was on pace 95 points and still were in the running for a playoff berth. If 95 points buys a playoff invitation this season, I'd say that would be a very obtainable obstacle to overcome for the Habs.

 

[Pyrophorus]

The bar isn't exactly that high for Montreal, as they've proven that all they'll need is a seat at the playoff table to potentially be a contender.

Yes, Tampa Boston and Florida should almost assuredly be better than Montreal...but the rest of the Atlantic are middling teams.

Two season's past Toronto was on pace 95 points and still were in the running for a playoff berth. If 95 points buys a playoff invitation this season, I'd say that would be a very obtainable obstacle to overcome for the Habs.

Show your work.

I divided the 77pts by 56 (games) and multiplied it by 82.
112.75pts

Secondly if you do make the playoffs, Pittsburgh and Washington had the same amount of points. Were they pacing for 95pts too?

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Well we all see hockey in different ways I guess. Cinderella teams win and come together due to leadership, compete and buy in. They lost the leadership core that instilled these standards in coming to the rink every day. It maybe a stretch or wishfull thinking in your opinion but historically thats not the case. The 55 games is a better representation of that team than the 20 on a playoff run. Again they werent a playoff team last year, they made it due to the divisions. That's the team I think they are closer to this year which is a non playoff team. While yes their young players will improve, but so will other teams. They are also in a much harder division. Then I take into account a short offseason and alot of turnover. That is why I think they will be worse and miss the playoffs.

For the record, I see Montreal as a bubble playoff team. They can squeak in or squeak out. I don't see them dropping off to Buffalo levels as maybe your position suggests with the vastly worse criteria you floated. I only replied to your post because you posted they would be vastly worse than last year. This is why I asked do you mean playoff Montreal where I still don't see the vast posts in this thread pointing to this, or the .527 points % team they were last year. I think they in the range of .500 team. They will miss Perry, I think he added a lot to the team. But if Weber was going to play at less than 100% this year, then it's reasonable to surmise a healthy Savard is a good offset to his loss. Maybe it's me, but I don't regard Danault as irreplaceable as perhaps your analysis of him is. I value leadership, don't get me wrong there. But I just don't see or would cite this as a main reason for a vast drop off in a team. Talent, Goaltending, Coaching, injuries would be bigger factors to me. Given the roster and projected improvement of their young players. I can see this team being on the bubble. It is a tougher division this year also, most North teams that made the playoffs should expect a normalization facing a tougher set of teams.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Show your work.

I divided the 77pts by 56 (games) and multiplied it by 82.
112.75pts

Secondly if you do make the playoffs, Pittsburgh and Washington had the same amount of points. Were they pacing for 95pts too?

"Two season's past"...

 

[bert]

The bar isn't exactly that high for Montreal, as they've proven that all they'll need is a seat at the playoff table to potentially be a contender.

Yes, Tampa Boston and Florida should almost assuredly be better than Montreal...but the rest of the Atlantic are middling teams.

Two season's past Toronto was on pace 95 points and still were in the running for a playoff berth. If 95 points buys a playoff invitation this season, I'd say that would be a very obtainable obstacle to overcome for the Habs.

The bar will be unfortunately much higher this season for Montreal to get into the dance. They finished 12th and 9th respectively the last two years in the east but still got in due to irregular divisions and playoff formats. As a team they will have to be much better in the regular season than they have been the past two seasons. With high turnover in leadership and a short off season, in a very very difficult east I personally dont see it happening. But again I have been wrong before, I see them as a team that regresses this year. They are likely back in the mix in 2022-2023.

For the record, I see Montreal as a bubble playoff team. They can squeak in or squeak out. I don't see them dropping off to Buffalo levels as maybe your position suggests with the vastly worse criteria you floated. I only replied to your post because you posted they would be vastly worse than last year. This is why I asked do you mean playoff Montreal where I still don't see the vast posts in this thread pointing to this, or the .527 points % team they were last year. I think they in the range of .500 team. They will miss Perry, I think he added a lot to the team. But if Weber was going to play at less than 100% this year, then it's reasonable to surmise a healthy Savard is a good offset to his loss. Maybe it's me, but I don't regard Danault as irreplaceable as perhaps your analysis of him is. I value leadership, don't get me wrong there. But I just don't see or would cite this as a main reason for a vast drop off in a team. Talent, Goaltending, Coaching, injuries would be bigger factors to me. Given the roster and projected improvement of their young players. I can see this team being on the bubble. It is a tougher division this year also, most North teams that made the playoffs should expect a normalization facing a tougher set of teams.

I do think they finish in the high 70's in points this year. So below 500%.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

The bar will be unfortunately much higher this season for Montreal to get into the dance. They finished 12th and 9th respectively the last two years in the east but still got in due to irregular divisions and playoff formats. As a team they will have to be much better in the regular season than they have been the past two seasons. With high turnover in leadership and a short off season, in a very very difficult east I personally dont see it happening. But again I have been wrong before, I see them as a team that regresses this year. They are likely back in the mix in 2022-2023.


I do think they finish in the high 70's in points this year. So below 500%.

Everybody had irregular divisions last season. Some simply were better Cinderella teams at taking advantage of those irregular divisions, shortened season and limited opponents than Montreal was.

If anything was close to "normal" last season, it was the playoff formatting.

 

[Tairy Greene]

Let's be honest here, Habs would have had a better regular season record if Price played up to his ability. I think they are a playoff team if they get good goaltending.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Let's be honest here, Habs would have had a better regular season record if Price played up to his ability. I think they are a playoff team if they get good goaltending.

The Habs might also have a better regular season record once the NHL resumes playing " regular" seasons.

Maybe it's as simple as that. Season-wise, the Habs have recent past history of being a mercurial team...up one season, down the next. Maybe last season's 'Cup run portents a run of the Habs on the upswing.

 

[bert]

Everybody had irregular divisions last season. Some simply were better Cinderella teams at taking advantage of those irregular divisions, shortened season and limited opponents than Montreal was.

If anything was close to "normal" last season, it was the playoff formatting.

Well yeah, some teams would have got in if they were in the North that didnt. Its not hard to figure out when you look at the point totals. They finished 9th in the east.

The Habs might also have a better regular season record once the NHL resumes playing " regular" seasons.

Maybe it's as simple as that. Season-wise, the Habs have recent past history of being a mercurial team...up one season, down the next. Maybe last season's 'Cup run portents a run of the Habs on the upswing.

Maybe they would but there is literally nothing that indicates that. If anything if the season went two more weeks they may have missed the north divisions playoffs entirely. They were in a free fall.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Well yeah, some teams would have got in if they were in the North that didnt. Its not hard to figure out when you look at the point totals. They finished 9th in the east.

Yeah.

Except the comparison of regular season points across divisions last season is meaningless. There's no way to tell how North teams would have fared in the East last season...or how other divisional teams might have succeeded or failed to thrive playing in the North.

 

[bert]

Yeah.

Except the comparison of regular season points across divisions last season is meaningless. There's no way to tell how North teams would have fared in the East last season...or how other divisional teams might have succeeded or failed to thrive playing in the North.

If you want to be completely ignorant to the eye test or what teams point totals have looked like over the last two years sure thing.

Islanders actually pushed Tampa and went the conference finals the previous year. They finished 4th in their division.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

OK. So we do the "Eye Test" and we cherrypick the last two seasons...which, not coincidentally, are the two most Cinderella-induced regular season success stories in modern NHL history...if not in the totality of the NHL proper.

Yeah, that sounds legit.

 

[Pyrophorus]

"Two season's past"...

Oh...ancient history.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Let's be honest here, Habs would have had a better regular season record if Price played up to his ability. I think they are a playoff team if they get good goaltending.

The issue going into this season is, who are they better than? Are they better than Tampa, Florida, Boston or Toronto? Those are the consensus top 4 teams (in whatever order) in the Atlantic. So which of those do you feel comfortable putting Montreal ahead of?

And if not them, in order for Montreal to finish 5th in the Atlantic and still make the playoffs they'd have to beat *two* Metro teams for the final wildcard spot. Is Montreal better than Washington, Pittsburgh, Carolina, or the Islanders? One of those 4 will have to be a wildcard since only the top 3 are guaranteed. Is Montreal definitely better than Philadelphia or the Rangers?

That's the issue with Montreal. Which of those 8 or 9 teams battling for a playoff spot do you think Montreal is clearly ahead of?

 

[Tairy Greene]

The issue going into this season is, who are they better than? Are they better than Tampa, Florida, Boston or Toronto? Those are the consensus top 4 teams (in whatever order) in the Atlantic. So which of those do you feel comfortable putting Montreal ahead of?

And if not them, in order for Montreal to finish 5th in the Atlantic and still make the playoffs they'd have to beat *two* Metro teams for the final wildcard spot. Is Montreal better than Washington, Pittsburgh, Carolina, or the Islanders? One of those 4 will have to be a wildcard since only the top 3 are guaranteed. Is Montreal definitely better than Philadelphia or the Rangers?

That's the issue with Montreal. Which of those 8 or 9 teams battling for a playoff spot do you think Montreal is clearly ahead of?

Good point, it's a hard division.