Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Washington
Boston
NYI
NYR
NJ
Buffalo
-----
Okay, I'm going to put some thought into this.
It's crazy because I can see almost any of these teams falling behind the 8-ball and not being able to catch up to a good group. But here is what I expect:
Washington Makes it. Even in bad years they are good in the regular season. Their top 2 lines are really dangerous and well balanced. Should be motivated to make up for the humiliating way they acquitted themselves in the play-ins.
But: If Ilya Samsonov falters in his return from injury or gets overwhelmed being the guy, then they could miss.
Philadelphia Makes it. They have a good young D and lot's of offensive depth/skill. Kevin Hayes came in and fit that team like a glove, Konecny broke out and seems legit. Giroux and Voracek still have a decent amount left in the tank and they aren't expected to carry the team anymore. Vigneault is also a really good coach.
But: If the unexpected retirement of Niskanen throws all of their D pairings out of wack and moves guys into positions they aren't ready for, I could see them missing.
New York Islanders: Makes it. In a year where teams are going to have to hit the ground running, it pays to be a team that is cohesive and stout defensively. I'm thinking of the 95 Devils as a team who did well in a lockout shortened season (although it took them time to find their game in the regular season, so maybe it's a bad comparison). The Islanders play a gritty, battle winning system that is somewhat immune to long slumps. Best coach in the league too.
But: Barzal isn't signed. He's important in that he's the single forward they have out of 12 who is truly dynamic. If he doesn't sign on time, or misses training camp and struggles, they could lose a lot of games 2-1. They will also miss Devon Toews.
Pittsburgh: Makes it. Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Zucker, Kapanen, Rust. It's hard to picture that top 6 being unable to take their team to the playoffs. If Pastrnak and Marchand miss some games or show some rust, I see Pittsburgh in the playoffs.
But: That D has a lot of question marks. If Letang gets hurt, if Matheson or Ceci are asked to carry too much mail, if Marino has a sophomore slump. Or if Tristan Jarry isn't ready. It could get ugly in Steel town.
Boston: Misses. They're left side D looks incredibly weak as it currently sits. They are also dealing with significant injury.
But: If Marchand AND Pastrnak come back healthy and playing like they can, then I see them making it.
New York Rangers: Misses. The upside is incredibly tantalizing. Lafrenierre, Kaako, Shesterkin, if all 3 play to their full potential right away, it's hard to see them missing. But this is a flawed team. Panarin is a true Hart contender (He was my winner last year), but Ryan Strome as your 2nd line center? What if Zibanejad has a bad year or gets hurt? The D is skilled but not very stout. It's hard to see Shesterkin not having some wobbles.
But: If it all goes right for them, they could win the division going away. Further, the future is briiiiight.
Buffalo: Misses. It must be frustrating to be a Sabres fan, both in general and this season. This should be their year to potentially make some noise with the acquisition of Taylor Hall, continued development of Dahlin, potential bounce back of Skinner, and having a top 5-8 player in the game in Eichel. But the division is too tough, the goal tending is terrible, and the culture is broken until they prove that it isn't.
But: If Cozens, Staal, and Hall all come in and play like gangbusters, Dahlin goes supernova, and Jokiharju and Ristolainen play well enough, it could all come together at once for this team.
New Jersey: Misses. This is a team in transition. The young studs are too young, the old guys are too old. Subban seems like his body has broken down and/or he doesn't care enough anymore. Murray is constantly hurt (but is solid) and is slow as molasses, Kulikov is terrible. Hughes and Hischier are both players with tremendous upside, but they aren't ready to go head to head with the top 2 centers of the other teams in this division.
But: Blackwood and Crawford have the potential to be one of the top goaltending duos in the league, and if Hughes and Hischier both go supernova, it could be enough. But I don't see it.
---
I may come back later and look at the Central, but this took awhile and I have to go out. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.