Potential Atlanta NHL Expansion Team Thread

[dj4aces]

“Forsyth County government announced today that they are taking steps to ensure approval of The Gathering at South Forsyth is contingent on the arena having an NHL tenant”

I don’t see any citation in this tweet or any other sources supporting this claim that Foryth County announced anything with these requirements?

In a reply, they cited this article, but it appears a subscription is required to read it. They later said they're "working on another post for that", which has yet to appear on the account.

So... if anyone has a subscription to the Forsyth News, all we have is a link with a headline proclaiming "new details", and someone running that account who has apparently read the article. Like you, I also did a search and found nothing.

 

[nhlfan79]

... if anyone has a subscription to the Forsyth News, all we have is a link with a headline proclaiming "new details", and someone running that account who has apparently read the article. Like you, I also did a search and found nothing.

I didn't know if that was referring to me, since I posted the link to the story above, but I haven't read the article either. I saw the headline on X/Twitter and just reposted it here.

 

[Dan K]

“Forsyth County government announced today that they are taking steps to ensure approval of The Gathering at South Forsyth is contingent on the arena having an NHL tenant”

I don’t see any citation in this tweet or any other sources supporting this claim that Foryth County announced anything with these requirements?

From Gainesville Times, a copy of the Forsyth County News article:
Daniel Dotson
Forsyth County News
Updated: Jan 18, 2024, 3:19 PM
Published: Jan 18, 2024, 3:04 PM


The latest details regarding the proposed $2 billion Gathering at South Forsyth arena project point to signs that Forsyth County could become home to a professional hockey team.
During a Development Authority meeting on Thursday, Jan. 18, Forsyth County Manager David McKee announced the county is in the process of drafting a memorandum of understanding, or MOU, with The Gathering development team that would outline conditions for approval of the project.
“Very soon, we will be formalizing, in the form of an MOU, the deal points for The Gathering,” said McKee. “Obviously, nothing is finalized; it has to go to the Board of Commissioners, and then there are some contingencies that have to be met.”
One contingency, in particular, is related directly to the involvement of the NHL.
“I think the most important part is if this deal goes forward, that everything is contingent on the National Hockey League landing a franchise at that facility,” said McKee.
McKee says the county’s negotiation team considered the original development proposition for The Gathering, that the arena be built first and then court an NHL team, to be “crazy.”
Now, according to McKee, the NHL will open an application for a franchise to locate in Forsyth County, which is a practice that the League has never utilized before. It is expected the application process will open as early as March or April of this year.
McKee told the Development Authority that the MOU will be presented to the Board of Commissioners within the next few weeks, along with the results of an economic impact analysis conducted on behalf of the county.
The county’s analysis, done by financial consulting company Earnst and Young, is one of three separate impact studies that have been conducted regarding the likely impact a development like The Gathering would have on the area.
Forsyth County Chamber of Commerce Vice President of Economic Development Alex Warner confirmed during the meeting that the Chamber’s analysis, though not yet made public, shows results substantially similar to the study commissioned by the county.
Warner stated that The Gathering, if approved, is expected to bring as many as 7,000 jobs to Forsyth County.

“I think it’s important for us to note that… it is The Gathering at South Forsyth,” said Board of Commissioners Chairman Alfred John during the meeting. “It puts Forsyth County’s name out there for people to know, to recognize, and want to come to do business in our county.”
The latest on bringing the NHL to a $2 billion entertainment district in Forsyth County

 

[Headshot77]

Sounds like Forsyth leadership really wants to push this thing through.

 

[dj4aces]

I didn't know if that was referring to me, since I posted the link to the story above, but I haven't read the article either. I saw the headline on X/Twitter and just reposted it here.

Not unless you're the one running the NHL to Atlanta account on Twitter! Sorry for the confusion.

 

[TheLegend]

From Gainesville Times, a copy of the Forsyth County News article:
Daniel Dotson
Forsyth County News
Updated: Jan 18, 2024, 3:19 PM
Published: Jan 18, 2024, 3:04 PM


The latest details regarding the proposed $2 billion Gathering at South Forsyth arena project point to signs that Forsyth County could become home to a professional hockey team.
During a Development Authority meeting on Thursday, Jan. 18, Forsyth County Manager David McKee announced the county is in the process of drafting a memorandum of understanding, or MOU, with The Gathering development team that would outline conditions for approval of the project.
“Very soon, we will be formalizing, in the form of an MOU, the deal points for The Gathering,” said McKee. “Obviously, nothing is finalized; it has to go to the Board of Commissioners, and then there are some contingencies that have to be met.”
One contingency, in particular, is related directly to the involvement of the NHL.
“I think the most important part is if this deal goes forward, that everything is contingent on the National Hockey League landing a franchise at that facility,” said McKee.
McKee says the county’s negotiation team considered the original development proposition for The Gathering, that the arena be built first and then court an NHL team, to be “crazy.”
Now, according to McKee, the NHL will open an application for a franchise to locate in Forsyth County, which is a practice that the League has never utilized before. It is expected the application process will open as early as March or April of this year.
McKee told the Development Authority that the MOU will be presented to the Board of Commissioners within the next few weeks, along with the results of an economic impact analysis conducted on behalf of the county.
The county’s analysis, done by financial consulting company Earnst and Young, is one of three separate impact studies that have been conducted regarding the likely impact a development like The Gathering would have on the area.
Forsyth County Chamber of Commerce Vice President of Economic Development Alex Warner confirmed during the meeting that the Chamber’s analysis, though not yet made public, shows results substantially similar to the study commissioned by the county.
Warner stated that The Gathering, if approved, is expected to bring as many as 7,000 jobs to Forsyth County.

“I think it’s important for us to note that… it is The Gathering at South Forsyth,” said Board of Commissioners Chairman Alfred John during the meeting. “It puts Forsyth County’s name out there for people to know, to recognize, and want to come to do business in our county.”
The latest on bringing the NHL to a $2 billion entertainment district in Forsyth County

At best….

This translates into the NHL agreeing to open the application process for an expansion team if the county approves this project.

It does not guarantee the approval of a franchise.

Quebec City, Part Deux

 

[tucker3434]

Oh, I get that money talks. To me it's a lot less about the alignment than it is the balance of "home runs" and "experiments."

Atlanta is an experiment. Quebec will definitely be supported. But they'll be supported like Winnipeg and Buffalo are supported.

Last time, Vegas was the experiment and Seattle was the home run. That's not to say you can't start Atlanta and Quebec City and then six years later add Houston and Salt Lake (or San Diego). But you have to have a reasonable expectation that your home run is on the way.

The NHL knew Seattle was working towards being #32. (It wasn't by any stretch a done deal; but you had FIVE PARTIES trying to make it happen, one of whom was Leiweke, who's like the Johnny Appleseed of sports/entertaining venues. BTW, back when the Kraken were announced, Leiweke said the NBA was "a 10-year process" and it looks like that's probably gonna come true, too).

And for the record, I mean no disrespect to Atlanta when I say it's an experiment. That's what I called Vegas while believing it would work. I think you'd be hard pressed to find a poster who's more pro-expansion and southern markets than I've been over the last 20 years of posting here. But a spade is a spade.

There are no homerruns left. There haven't been for years and years. Atlanta and Houston are about as safe as you can get due to size and corporate support. We won't have as many fans in the cheap seats, but the luxury boxes will have a waiting list.

 

[nhlfan79]

Not unless you're the one running the NHL to Atlanta account on Twitter! Sorry for the confusion.

Nope!

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

At best….

This translates into the NHL agreeing to open the application process for an expansion team if the county approves this project.

It does not guarantee the approval of a franchise.

Quebec City, Part Deux

You nailed it...



Though, they're not siting any sources, so I'm not so sure about that timeline. But it looks like the process continues in the meantime.

 

[dj4aces]

You nailed it...



Though, they're not siting any sources, so I'm not so sure about that timeline. But it looks like the process continues in the meantime.

In a reply, they cited what appears to be the same Forsyth County News article that started all this. I'm of the opinion, at this point, that I really don't believe much of it until I see it covered by the AJC, or The Athletic. I'd even accept it if Friedman discusses it on the 32 Thoughts podcast. The fact the AJC is mum on this so far tells me nothing has really changed.

But this person mentions March/April 2024, so I guess the wait continues?

 

[nhlfan79]

Ok, I'll say it. That NHL To Atlanta account should not be presumed as an authoritative source. All that person does is repackage readily available public information and make speculative inferences. And with terrible grammar and proofing, to boot. "NHL Expected To Apply For Franchise"? Wait, who? The league is applying for expansion? LOL (not LOL).

 

[TheLegend]

Ok, I'll say it. That NHL To Atlanta account should not be presumed as an authoritative source. All that person does is repackage readily available public information and make speculative inferences. And with terrible grammar and proofing, to boot. "NHL Expected To Apply For Franchise"? Wait, who? The league is applying for expansion? LOL (not LOL).

Whomever wrote the Forsythe News article made the assumption that it was expected the NHL would open the process.

But everyone need to understand that opening a process isn’t a guarantee a franchise coming. Again…. see Quebec City.

I think that is what county officials remember and they don’t want to end up being on the wrong end.

 

[GreenHornet]

Ok, I'll say it. That NHL To Atlanta account should not be presumed as an authoritative source. All that person does is repackage readily available public information and make speculative inferences. And with terrible grammar and proofing, to boot. "NHL Expected To Apply For Franchise"? Wait, who? The league is applying for expansion? LOL (not LOL).

I may be suffering from a bit of a Mandela effect here, but I seem to remember the original person behind the NHL To Atlanta account announced a little while ago that he was turning over the administration of the account to someone else because he's business and personal life had gotten too busy.

So, FWIW I think this is a different person running the account. From what (very) little I know about the situation (and admittedly, that's second hand at best), the original person did have some contacts to people in the know (moreso with the local folks involving The Gathering and arena than the NHL side).

 

[GreenHornet]

Whomever wrote the Forsythe News article made the assumption that it was expected the NHL would open the process.

But everyone need to understand that opening a process isn’t a guarantee a franchise coming. Again…. see Quebec City.

I think that is what county officials remember and they don’t want to end up being on the wrong end.

Whomever wrote the Forsythe News article made the assumption that it was expected the NHL would open the process.

But everyone need to understand that opening a process isn’t a guarantee a franchise coming. Again…. see Quebec City.

I think that is what county officials remember and they don’t want to end up being on the wrong end.

More likely, there was some miscommunication between the Forsyth Co. manager quoted (named McKee, IIRC) and the FCN reporter.

I think after reading the initial article, Krause realized that what the manager told the reporter came out in a really ham-fisted way, and he probably got some static from other county officials or someone from the NHL. So, he called the reporter to "clarify" the situation, thus leading to the follow-up article.

 

[KevFu]

There are no homerruns left. There haven't been for years and years. Atlanta and Houston are about as safe as you can get due to size and corporate support. We won't have as many fans in the cheap seats, but the luxury boxes will have a waiting list.

I mean, Seattle was. Houston would be. I think Atlanta would be just fine if they had an ownership group committed unlike ASG. But you're still talking about a place that's 0-for-2, so there's some risk.

It will be really nice though if the Thrashers come back and it goes extremely well and we can all use that in a data-based argument that the 1990s expansion mistakes were not market based but the circumstances of suddenly expanding with 14 new franchise brands in 10 seasons and nine of them being expansion teams, which were given terrible rosters and all sucking at once, they couldn't build the organization the right way (and in the case of eight new brands, being up in divisions that pitted them against other new brands).

That any market, given the proper way to expand the league, would be fine if they have the holy trinity of owner/arena/lease.

 

[dj4aces]

Ok, I'll say it. That NHL To Atlanta account should not be presumed as an authoritative source. All that person does is repackage readily available public information and make speculative inferences. And with terrible grammar and proofing, to boot. "NHL Expected To Apply For Franchise"? Wait, who? The league is applying for expansion? LOL (not LOL).

At the end of November, the original owner of the account posted that they had to step away, and was turning it over to someone they trust (as @GreenHornet stated). However, that post doesn't seem to be available any longer.

I'd have to scroll back through some of their older posts and analyze things like word choice and usage, grammatical choice, spelling, etc... but I'm not *that* invested in what the account actually posts. If it's not from a trusted source, I no longer really care.

Part of me wonders if the person operating the account is actually the author of the article.

Whomever wrote the Forsythe News article made the assumption that it was expected the NHL would open the process.

But everyone need to understand that opening a process isn’t a guarantee a franchise coming. Again…. see Quebec City.

I think that is what county officials remember and they don’t want to end up being on the wrong end.

From where I sit, it's fascinating to me that, while Forsyth and other exurban counties in the area continues to grow exponentially, that people (including myself) thought the county would simply rubber-stamp the project. So asking for assurances that the building would have an NHL anchor tenant makes perfect sense.

 

[nhlfan79]

Though we had never met, I knew who the original owner of that account was, if only from seeing him regularly at Glads games and knowing where he always liked to sit. I have the same recollection that he'd handed it off a little while back. I have no idea who the new person is.

 

[tucker3434]

I mean, Seattle was. Houston would be. I think Atlanta would be just fine if they had an ownership group committed unlike ASG. But you're still talking about a place that's 0-for-2, so there's some risk.

It will be really nice though if the Thrashers come back and it goes extremely well and we can all use that in a data-based argument that the 1990s expansion mistakes were not market based but the circumstances of suddenly expanding with 14 new franchise brands in 10 seasons and nine of them being expansion teams, which were given terrible rosters and all sucking at once, they couldn't build the organization the right way (and in the case of eight new brands, being up in divisions that pitted them against other new brands).

That any market, given the proper way to expand the league, would be fine if they have the holy trinity of owner/arena/lease.

We haven't proven that Seattle is perfect. We're still in the honeymoon phase with them. I'm sure they'll be fine. But most markets are going to struggle if they have an extended stretch like Ottawa, Buffalo, Arizona, etc.

The entire professional sports environment has evolved over time. It's never been more corporate than it is right now. It's also the least corporate it'll ever be. That changes the risk profile from what it was back in the Flames days. Honestly, the Thrashers would have survived if given much of any chance to.

So aside from something like Toronto2, Houston and Atlanta, who support the other 3 of the big 4 +MLS, are about as reasonable of a risk as there is out there.

Agreed on the rest though. Would have loved to see what the Thrashers could've done under modern expansion rules.

 

[dj4aces]

Agreed on the rest though. Would have loved to see what the Thrashers could've done under modern expansion rules.

A bit of a tangent maybe, but I still wonder what things would've been like if David McDavid had bought the trio instead of Atlanta Spirit.

 

[GreenHornet]

A bit of a tangent maybe, but I still wonder what things would've been like if David McDavid had bought the trio instead of Atlanta Spirit.

Don't know what the on-ice record would've been, but I'm convinced the Thrashers would still be here in Atlanta.

 

[BMN]

the circumstances of suddenly expanding with 14 new franchise brands in 10 seasons and nine of them being expansion teams, which were given terrible rosters and all sucking at once, they couldn't build the organization the right way (and in the case of eight new brands, being up in divisions that pitted them against other new brands).

This is criminally underdiscussed as, quite frankly, given how all of that expansion/relocation proceeded it's nothing short of a minor miracle the NHL has only had one relocation onward from 1998-2024. That's one move in over a quarter century! Despite all of those teams that started with the flimisest of competitive chances, on top of the normal difficulties that even the most established franchises can encounter.

If the NBA added that many brands that fast, I'm convinced you would have had an onslaught of relocations 15 years after.

 

[TheLegend]

There was another point I saw in the article where the author implied the NHL had never done something like open an expansion bid while a project was still in the process of approval and that’s a bit misleading.

The NHL has, in fact, done simultaneous vetting of potential ownerships in the past while they were still in the process of obtaining new agreements with an established venue (see Greg Jamison’s and Matt Hulsizer’s bids to buy the Coyotes.)

So while it might be “unprecedented” for a yet to be arena, it’s not new for the league to work on a simultaneous path like this.

It mainly depends on who these potential owners would be and what their involvement with The Gathering (if any) would be.

 

[KevFu]

We haven't proven that Seattle is perfect. We're still in the honeymoon phase with them. I'm sure they'll be fine. But most markets are going to struggle if they have an extended stretch like Ottawa, Buffalo, Arizona, etc.

The entire professional sports environment has evolved over time. It's never been more corporate than it is right now. It's also the least corporate it'll ever be. That changes the risk profile from what it was back in the Flames days. Honestly, the Thrashers would have survived if given much of any chance to.

Agree to everything here, although I think "the floor" for Seattle is A LOT higher than Ottawa or Buffalo because of market size. Yes it's a honeymoon period, but Seattle loved the Sonics, loves the Sounders (despite there being an article in their paper saying 95% of the market didn't give a damn about soccer at all) and Mariners (despite the being one of four long-tenured teams to never make the championship game/round).

Seattle is gonna be fine. You look for "market peers" and theirs is Colorado (Houston's is Dallas, Quebec's is Ottawa/Winnipeg; Vegas was Nashville, etc, etc).


And I think that Arizona shows off exactly the corporate part of sports perfectly: FANS like to point to attendance issues as "that team is Doooooomed!" The Coyotes have been a straight-up train wreck debacle for approaching two decades now. AND THEY'RE STILL THERE.

Just being part of the league provides enough revenue that you can survive damned near everything. COVID shows us that tickets really don't even matter. (Oakland doesn't even HAVE to move, they're moving because MLB gave them an ultimatum on a stadium deal or lose the revenue sharing that I'm saying can assure the survival of any Big Four team, and MLB did it because they want to go ahead with expansion ASAP).

 

[KevFu]

This is criminally underdiscussed as, quite frankly, given how all of that expansion/relocation proceeded it's nothing short of a minor miracle the NHL has only had one relocation onward from 1998-2024. That's one move in over a quarter century! Despite all of those teams that started with the flimisest of competitive chances, on top of the normal difficulties that even the most established franchises can encounter.

If the NBA added that many brands that fast, I'm convinced you would have had an onslaught of relocations 15 years after.

Thank you!

I do think part of the reason for only one relocation since is because the 1990s was the "new arena" era and all those markets built arenas and their teams signed 30-year leases.

We ARE about to enter a period where all those leases come to an end and teams will start looking for new arenas and you're gonna hear A LOT of NBA/NHL relocation talk.

Speaking of the NBA... they didn't add nine teams in nine years; they added SIX TEAMS From 1988 to 1995! And they had three relocations shortly thereafter: Vancouver to Memphis, Charlotte to New Orleans, and Seattle to Oklahoma City.


I think that all leagues learned their lesson from the NHL expansion and won't do that kind of thing again. Baseball is making damned sure that Oakland and Tampa resolve stadium issues BEFORE they expand.

NHL really screwed up by (a) not pausing the last round of expansion and offering "last chance" to Winnipeg, Quebec and Hartford.

(In defense of the NHL, the Wild replaced the Stars, Atlanta had previously lost the Flames, Columbus got teased with and nearly got the Whalers, and Nashville got teased with and nearly got the Devils; which was the origin of booing Bettman at the SCF!).

(b) going to the six division alignment. The Southeast and Pacific divisions played like 40% of their schedules against the new brands (less than a decade old, all of them). That's not being added, that's being an annex.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Don't know what the on-ice record would've been, but I'm convinced the Thrashers would still be here in Atlanta.

Along with his long lost nephew, Connor.