Blue Jays Discussion: post-deadline, back-at-home edition

[canucksfan]

 

[Bjindaho]

Well, I'm just relaying what Blair said.

But further, I would ask - is it more likely that you yourself are incorrectly interpreting stats, or that the Jays analytics team is doing the same?

Consider that the analytics team is likely looking at far more detailed stats than "high/low leverage". I wager that they look at all historical matchups between the active players, then they look at each reliever's most effective pitches and zones and compare that against each hitter's most preferred contact zones, pitches, etc. Then they have to compensate for the new 3 out rule, so they run multiple out-scenarios to come up with the best matchup for a sequence of batters in various out scenarios.

Off course at the end of the day what they engage in is predictive analytics. What you've shown is limited descriptive analytics. The latter is very easy to execute - all you need is a link and maybe a couple of filters. The former is much more challenging, and in a limited sample size, sometimes does not pan out.

No intelligent argument says to pitch a dumpster pickup over anything we have (or using green rookies in high leverage situations òver the other guys)

An analytics team should tell you that we need a reliever.

 

[Cloned]

I find it difficult to believe that analytics told them that Trent Thornton was the best choice to throw essentially the 8th inning of a 1-run game (6th inning of 7-inning game = 8th inning of a 9-inning game) coming off a rest day with everyone available.

If it did, then we have bigger problems than Charlie Montoyo lol.

 

[trellaine201]

Glad we finally rid ourselves of Murphy. He was god awful.

 

[Dr.Funk]

Vlad back in the 3 hole tonight

 

[OVO16]

Should we give Aaron Sanchez a shot

 

[trellaine201]

Check this out lol. I thought the umps were bad in the MLB. Look at the player’s reaction.

 

[saska sault]

Love the energy of Manoah coming off the field. He wanted to finish that inning... Love that fire. Kids a gamer.

 

[Maestro84]

Should we give Aaron Sanchez a shot

Blisters

 

[saska sault]

Where is everyone who was earlier bitching about George and his quad?

 

[Maestro84]

At this point Shohei might as well pitch every day and hit 8 times in the lineup (9 when there’s no trout)

LAA is a hapless organization and I loathe them for wasting this generations GOAT and modern day Babe Ruth the way they have

 

[The Nemesis]

Check this out lol. I thought the umps were bad in the MLB. Look at the player’s reaction.

In defence of those umps, they're mostly going to be volunteers.

MLB umpires are getting paid to be that terrible.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Orelvis HR

Might be having some bad luck when the balls in play but when it's over the fence it's always a HR.

 

[Kurtz]

I find it difficult to believe that analytics told them that Trent Thornton was the best choice to throw essentially the 8th inning of a 1-run game (6th inning of 7-inning game = 8th inning of a 9-inning game) coming off a rest day with everyone available.

I think this proves the point. It would be clearly foolish to throw Trent into a situation like that normally - unless they had stats on Thorton's previous matchups with upcoming batters, or showed data that Thorton's strengths matchup with the hitters weaknesses.

I don't know. Either you trust Blair on this or you think he's making it up for some reason.

 

[93LEAFS]

At this point Shohei might as well pitch every day and hit 8 times in the lineup (9 when there’s no trout)

LAA is a hapless organization and I loathe them for wasting this generations GOAT and modern day Babe Ruth the way they have

Well, they've already done it with this generation's Willie Mays/Mickey Mantle.

 

[GreytWun]

Of course the A’s, Seattle and Yankees won

 

[Advanced stats]

Sooo... Manoah to the BP still?

 

[theaub]

Of course the A’s, Seattle and Yankees won

Just need to keep winning and hope that the schedule variance takes care of itself.

After this weekend, for the following three weeks:

TOR: at WAS, DET, CWS, @DET, BAL, OAK
OAK: @CWS, SF, SEA, NYY, @DET, @TOR
NYY: BOS, MIN, @ATL, at OAK, @LAA, BAL
BOS: @NYY, TEX, MIN, @CLE, @TB, CLE

Everyone else plays each other, meanwhile we only have to play Oakland at home and the other tough series is the White Sox but also at home.

Need to make up some solid ground because it gets a bit tougher after that with 7 against the Yanks/6 against Tampa.

 

[Discoverer]

I think this proves the point. It would be clearly foolish to throw Trent into a situation like that normally - unless they had stats on Thorton's previous matchups with upcoming batters, or showed data that Thorton's strengths matchup with the hitters weaknesses.

I don't know. Either you trust Blair on this or you think he's making it up for some reason.

I don't really have a whole lot of trust in Blair, to be honest. I also don't think he's making it up, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's just misinterpreting or stretching the truth a bit. Like... it's not that much of a leap to think he has sources who told him Montoyo and the analytics department have regular meetings to develop strategies on pitcher usage and the decisions he makes are largely based on the team's in-depth analytical research, and then Blair turned that into "Montoyo has no say in how players are used".

I thought bringing Thornton in with two-on late in a one-run game was a huge mistake. I get wanting to save your big arms for different situations (particularly in game one of a double-header) but there has to be something between the big high-leverage guys and the guy you just called up for the double-header. Ultimately, though, Thornton did just fine and the team around him let them down.

 

[saska sault]

At this point Shohei might as well pitch every day and hit 8 times in the lineup (9 when there’s no trout)

LAA is a hapless organization and I loathe them for wasting this generations GOAT and modern day Babe Ruth the way they have

Agree. Mike Trout could possibly be the best baseball player to ever walk the earth and he is not even a house hold name. Ohtani is worth the price of admission alone... That organization just wasted a ton of money on Rendon. Get them some pitching please. Need to see those guys in October games.

 

[Beaumaris]

Where is everyone who was earlier bitching about George and his quad?

I’m here.

 

[Bjindaho]

I don't really have a whole lot of trust in Blair, to be honest. I also don't think he's making it up, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's just misinterpreting or stretching the truth a bit. Like... it's not that much of a leap to think he has sources who told him Montoyo and the analytics department have regular meetings to develop strategies on pitcher usage and the decisions he makes are largely based on the team's in-depth analytical research, and then Blair turned that into "Montoyo has no say in how players are used".

I thought bringing Thornton in with two-on late in a one-run game was a huge mistake. I get wanting to save your big arms for different situations (particularly in game one of a double-header) but there has to be something between the big high-leverage guys and the guy you just called up for the double-header. Ultimately, though, Thornton did just fine and the team around him let them down.

To be fair, the pitch Adell popped up was a mistake (a 94 mph fastball middle-in at the belt (though it apparently moved a lot vertically).

 

[Maestro84]

Of course the A’s, Seattle and Yankees won

I feel like Boston and Oakland are catchable as I genuinely feel we have a better team than both if everyone is healthy. Seattle is not a threat and neither are LAA especially if we beat them again tonight. It's going to be between us and the Yankees imo, they got the two strongest teams among non-division leaders in AL and I think there's a strong chance we'll be playing each other in the WC game.

I doubt we catch the Rays, they're a much better team than the 2015 NYY were. Not only were the Jays on fire in 2015 but the Yankees were really not that good and were bound to be evened out, the Rays are legit WS contenders this year.

Then again, I've been wrong several times before lol

 

[Hoverhand]

Just need to keep winning and hope that the schedule variance takes care of itself.

After this weekend, for the following three weeks:

TOR: at WAS, DET, CWS, @DET, BAL, OAK
OAK: @CWS, SF, SEA, NYY, @DET, @TOR
NYY: BOS, MIN, @ATL, at OAK, @LAA, BAL
BOS: @NYY, TEX, MIN, @CLE, @TB, CLE

Everyone else plays each other, meanwhile we only have to play Oakland at home and the other tough series is the White Sox but also at home.

Need to make up some solid ground because it gets a bit tougher after that with 7 against the Yanks/6 against Tampa.

This solidly confirms my priors about 3 teams making the playoffs out of the AL East. That A's schedule is brutal after they leave Texas, even the "break" in that list is Detroit who have been doing well since late July and just took 2/3 from Boston.

 

[canucksfan]

If Manoah improves his changeup, he will be so dominant. It doesn't have to be on par with his other two pitches either.