The only reason Kirk should be traded is for an absolute irresistible deal. Ideally, him and Moreno are used as a 1A-1B tandem with whoever isn't playing either DHing or taking the day off.
Blue Jays Discussion: post-deadline, back-at-home edition
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Yes, it is.
Toronto Blue Jays Leaderboards » 2021 » Relievers » Win Probability Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball
The TL;DR is that our highest leverage situations have gone to Chatwood all season while Cimber has been used almost exclusively in low leverage.
Basically, the bullpen has been used as poorly as it looks
zeke
The Dube Abides
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I think the important thing is that Kirk's bat is so good he can DH.
For the first month of the season, Chatwood was the only guy getting outs in high leverage situations.
Underperforming your run differential is more a luck thing than a manager/bullpen thing.
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The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
No he didn't. He gave up 8 hits and a walk. Which, granted, isn't great in 5 innings. But when you literally strike out half the batters you face (23) you can get away with it.
If Kirk’s bat is as good as it’s been so far, Moreno is as good as he’s looked and McGuire is also a 2+ WAR guy, I’d have no issues carrying 3 catchers knowing that Kirk is good enough to be a DH 50 times a year and catcher is a hard position defensively. Also believe Moreno may be able to play 3B in a pinch but we’ll see how that goes. Kirk’s bat is far better then all of our outfielders not named Springer or Teo and McGuire offers more defensive value then Gurriel.
This is just patently false.
Merryweather and Romano were dominant for the first month.
What is the most telling thing here is that if filter down to any innings pitched and remove Soria (since he only pitched recently and has limited innings), our highest leverages entering a game are Merryweather, Bergen, Romano, Chatwood, Phelps, Murphy, Castro, Edwards Jr, Hand, Mayza, Richards, Dolis, Borucki, Cimber, Thornton in that order.
We DFA'd Payamps despite him performing well so that we could keep a mixed bag of guys that were consistently losing us games.
But hey, if you are okay with trusting Bergen, Chatwood, Murphy, Castro, and Edwards Jr on the mound with the game on the line instead of Mayza, be my guest (or Payamps who outpitched them all)
But hey, if you are okay with trusting Bergen, Chatwood, Murphy, Castro, and Edwards Jr on the mound with the game on the line instead of Mayza, be my guest (or Payamps who outpitched them all)
I have no idea why we hate Payamps so much. He looked way better than those other guys.
If the biggest issue on this team is our 12th pitcher we'll be OK
metafour
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They DFA'd Payamps because pretty much all of his underlying metrics strongly indicated that him "performing well" was a complete mirage/sample size luck:
6.60 K/9 vs. 3.30 BB/9 - completely piss-poor ratio
.220 BABIP - basically equal to or better than the elitest of the elite relievers
79.9% LOB% - basically equal to or better than the elitest of the elite relievers
10.6% LD% - completely unsustainable and a complete fluke - this blows away the best relievers in baseball
19.4% IFFB% - completely unsustainable and a complete fluke
So you have a guy who doesn't strike batters out, isn't an elite control pitcher, and who displayed a completely unsustainable batted-ball profile in the sense that he ran an absurdly low LD% while simultaneously running an insanely high IFFB%, all combining into a BABIP that would indicate that he's among the best of the best in terms of being unhittable?
Orrrrrr....he's a replacement level pitcher who was benefiting from sample-size luck and was going to implode at any moment. Hence the 4.20 FIP and 5.03 xFIP in comparison to his 2.70 ERA. In 7 IP for Kansas City's AAA team he's running a 5.14 ERA.
I really wish that people would spend the time to analyze a player's performance accurately, as opposed to concluding that management made some completely baffling decision that defies all logic when they DFA or get rid of a player who is quite clearly benefiting from luck.
The debate was whether poor decisions by Charlie impact our record or if it is just luck
Kurtz
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Jeff Blair was on the Goodshow this morning, and said that he was a bit surprised that fans still don't know that the bullpen decisions are not made by Montoya but rather by the analytics team who map out the scenarios before the game.
Merryweather threw 4 innings. He wasn't exactly an option to turn to.
Plus, I mean... I said the first month, but I was off by a bit. It was actually the first six weeks of the season, where Chatwood had a 0.53 ERA and a 1.41 FIP. Romano had been good, but he was the one with walk problems early on. For most of April and May, until he suddenly became a walk machine again, Chatwood was by far the best reliever on the Jays and giving him the most high leverage innings for the first couple months was 100% justified.
I really, really don't like Montoyo's bullpen management, but there was a big chunk of the season where injuries left them with very little to work with and forced him to use guys in situations they shouldn't have had to be used in.
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
1 ER with elite peripherals from April 1st to May 21st for Chatwood. He was without a doubt the Jays best reliever at the time, and Phelps/Castro were doing extremely well too. Just because he was trash immediately after that run doesn’t necessarily mean Chatwood was undeserving of high leverage innings. Mayza early on was shit too. No idea why he’s the guy you want to run with or Payamps for that matter who was babiping to success like Bergen.
Chatwood's literal overnight turnaround from being absolutely dominant the first 6-7 weeks of the season into a Steve Blass disaster was absolutely astonishing.
Through May 21 : 17 IP 24K 5BB 0.53 ERA 0.72 WHIP
After May 23 : 11 IP 8K 15BB 13.09 ERA 2.45 WHIP
Through May 21 : 17 IP 24K 5BB 0.53 ERA 0.72 WHIP
After May 23 : 11 IP 8K 15BB 13.09 ERA 2.45 WHIP
So you're telling me that we pay a team to not be able to correctly interpret stats?
Kurtz
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Well, I'm just relaying what Blair said.
But further, I would ask - is it more likely that you yourself are incorrectly interpreting stats, or that the Jays analytics team is doing the same?
Consider that the analytics team is likely looking at far more detailed stats than "high/low leverage". I wager that they look at all historical matchups between the active players, then they look at each reliever's most effective pitches and zones and compare that against each hitter's most preferred contact zones, pitches, etc. Then they have to compensate for the new 3 out rule, so they run multiple out-scenarios to come up with the best matchup for a sequence of batters in various out scenarios.
Off course at the end of the day what they engage in is predictive analytics. What you've shown is limited descriptive analytics. The latter is very easy to execute - all you need is a link and maybe a couple of filters. The former is much more challenging, and in a limited sample size, sometimes does not pan out.
WeThreeKings
Demidov is a HAB
Canada4Gold
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Given the turnover of the pen in the recent month and the stat that was brought up the other day where the Jays have had very very few high leverage spots out of the pen in the last month one would assume if you're using a full season list any newer pitchers are going to be further down that list because only being here the last month would leave you with almost no high leverage spots to pitch in while guys like Chatwood, Castro, etc etc who were here all year were on a team that had more higher leverage spots available to the pen as a whole.
A more fair way to compare the pen usage of guys like Cimber, Richards, Hand, Soria would be to just compare the last month for everyone.
Toronto Blue Jays Leaderboards » 2021 » Relievers » Win Probability Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball
Soria - 1.44, 1.0 IP
Richards - 1.16, 10.2 IP
Romano - 1.16, 8.2 IP
Hand - 0.87, 3.1 IP
Thornton - 0.81, 2.2 IP
Cimber - 0.75, 12.2 IP
Murphy - 0.61, 2.1 IP
Mayza - 0.48, 7.2 IP
Borucki - 0.36, 6.0 IP
Barnes - 0.34, 2.1 IP
Dolis - 0.33, 8.0 IP
Snead - 0.26, 3.1 IP
Saucedo - 0.22, 8.1 IP
Kay - 0.11, 1.1 IP
It looks more reasonable. Obviously you don't want Thornton up that high. It's only 2.2 IP and I would guess yesterday is the heavy influence there. You'd like Cimber to be in your top 3 with Richards and Romano, and Mayza to be higher as well.
I was surprised how low Dolis was given it seems high pressure everytime he's in there and how well he's pitched this past month.
Suntouchable13
Registered User
What scares me is that Jays might need a 200+M payroll in order to keep all of our guys. Ray, Semien, already have Springer locked up at 25 per, then how much would it take to lock up Bo and Vladdy? Then you got Berrios. I mean, damn.
Canada4Gold
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Yes. Small sample size warning. He's "struggled" results wise in 7 games with Vancouver with only a .636 OPS, but he's actually striking out at a lower clip than in Dunedin, sub 20%. I'm guessing some BABIP luck issues as he's 3 for 21 on balls in play and 3 of his 5 hits are 2 HR and a double so I'd suspect it's not a weak contact issue. But without furthur information it's just boxscore scouting.
zeke
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They've saved enough money the last 5yrs.
I find it difficult to believe that analytics told them that Trent Thornton was the best choice to throw essentially the 8th inning of a 1-run game (6th inning of 7-inning game = 8th inning of a 9-inning game) coming off a rest day with everyone available.
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