Post-consolidation VsX Benchmarks

[Czech Your Math]

Conclusion: although there's a cost of added complexity, the VsX system, using Sturm's metrics, is clearly superior to the Vs3 system, which is systematically biased for/against players from certain eras.

====

If I had to guess, the "VsN" system, where N is the number of teams, would probably give the best results. We'd be looking so deep into the scoring race that the impact of outliers is virtually eliminated. The issues are 1) lots of work to calculate the benchmark each year (I don't have time to try this) and 2) still going to have wonky results for WWII, which we always will unless we mark a reasonable attempt to quantify it, as Sturm has done.

Thanks for the analysis. I always start my studies after WWII, because the data prior to that seems so unreliable and drastically different. The post-O6 expansion period ("the '70s") is difficult to study as well. It's difficult for any system to objectively quantify the fact that the talent pool has changed substantially (players drawn away by war or competing league... or players added due to increased population or more open emigration policies, etc.).

These are VsN benchmarks for 1946 to present:

2015 72.20
2014 74.73
2013 48.07
2012 76.83
2011 77.47
2010 83.40
2009 84.20
2008 84.23
2007 91.00
2006 91.57
2004 74.67
2003 82.57
2002 74.90
2001 86.43
2000 77.79
1999 82.56
1998 78.15
1997 88.08
1996 104.50
1995 53.19
1994 98.42
1993 117.13
1992 99.95
1991 102.43
1990 105.81
1989 109.86
1988 107.24
1987 97.48
1986 112.52
1985 111.38
1984 109.05
1983 105.33
1982 113.62
1981 106.05
1980 100.14
1979 100.88
1978 92.83
1977 93.00
1976 101.28
1975 100.83
1974 90.06
1973 95.13
1972 93.57
1971 92.71
1970 79.92
1969 90.83
1968 74.75
1967 73.33
1966 79.50
1965 74.67
1964 79.17
1963 76.00
1962 77.00
1961 81.33
1960 75.83
1959 82.67
1958 74.50
1957 76.83
1956 73.33
1955 68.50
1954 60.83
1953 66.50
1952 65.33
1951 66.17
1950 65.83
1949 56.67
1948 57.00
1947 63.83
1946 51.50

 

[Rob Scuderi]

I started to look at VsN the other day, but haven't had much time. I didn't get much done and had no intention of posting it, but combining this with CYM's work there's only a few years left to run.

1927 – 29.7, 10 teams
1928 – 32.7, 10 teams
1929 – 24.5, 10 teams
1930 – 56.6, 10 teams
1931 – 41.8, 10 teams
1932 – 46.875, 8 teams
1933 – 40.88, 9 teams
1934 – 41.2, 9 teams
1935 – 45, 9 teams
1936 – 39.375, 8 teams
1937 – 40.625, 8teams
1938 – 42.75, 8 teams

 

[BM67]

I posted this in another thread a while ago.

Using the number of teams to set the mark. We start at either #1 or #2 through to T, the number of teams, and use the average as the "vs#2" number.

The table shows how many points that would be, and where that would sit in the scoring race.

Year | Teams | #1-#T | Rank | #2-#T | Rank
1918 | 3 | 44.67 | 3 | 43 | 3
1919 | 3 | 29.67 | 2 | 28 | 2
1920 | 4 | 43 | 3 | 41 | 3
1921 | 4 | 39.75 | 3 | 38.67 | 4
1922 | 4 | 39.5 | 2 | 37.33 | 4
1923 | 4 | 32.5 | 3 | 31 | 3
1924 | 4 | 22.75 | 3 | 22.33 | 3
1925 | 6 | 38.83 | 5 | 37.4 | 5
1926 | 7 | 31.14 | 3 | 29.33 | 5
1927 | 10 | 29.7 | 6 | 28.89 | 6
1928 | 10 | 32.7 | 6 | 30.67 | 6
1929 | 10 | 25.5 | 7 | 24.78 | 7
1930 | 10 | 56.6 | 6 | 54.78 | 7
1931 | 10 | 41.8 | 6 | 40.78 | 7
1932 | 8 | 46.88 | 6 | 46 | 6
1933 | 9 | 40.89 | 6 | 39.75 | 6
1934 | 9 | 41.22 | 4 | 39.88 | 4
1935 | 9 | 45 | 4 | 43.5 | 6
1936 | 8 | 39.38 | 4 | 38.57 | 4
1937 | 8 | 40.62 | 5 | 39.86 | 6
1938 | 8 | 42.75 | 4 | 41.43 | 5
1939 | 7 | 42.14 | 3 | 41.33 | 4
1940 | 7 | 42.14 | 4 | 40.5 | 4
1941 | 7 | 46.29 | 2 | 43.67 | 7
1942 | 7 | 50.57 | 5 | 49.67 | 5
1943 | 6 | 66 | 4 | 64.6 | 4
1944 | 6 | 75 | 3 | 73.6 | 4
1945 | 6 | 65.5 | 4 | 62.6 | 5
1946 | 6 | 51.5 | 3 | 49.6 | 5
1947 | 6 | 63.83 | 3 | 62.2 | 4
1948 | 6 | 57 | 3 | 56.2 | 4
1949 | 6 | 56.67 | 3 | 54.4 | 3
1950 | 6 | 65.83 | 4 | 63.4 | 5
1951 | 6 | 66.17 | 2 | 62.2 | 3
1952 | 6 | 65.33 | 3 | 61.2 | 4
1953 | 6 | 66.5 | 3 | 60.8 | 4
1954 | 6 | 60.83 | 4 | 56.8 | 4
1955 | 6 | 68.5 | 4 | 67.2 | 4
1956 | 6 | 73.33 | 3 | 70.4 | 4
1957 | 6 | 76.83 | 5 | 74.4 | 5
1958 | 6 | 74.5 | 5 | 72.6 | 5
1959 | 6 | 82.67 | 4 | 80 | 4
1960 | 6 | 75.83 | 3 | 74.8 | 3
1961 | 6 | 81.33 | 4 | 78.6 | 4
1962 | 6 | 77 | 3 | 75.6 | 5
1963 | 6 | 76 | 3 | 74 | 4
1964 | 6 | 79.17 | 3 | 77.2 | 4
1965 | 6 | 74.67 | 4 | 72.2 | 4
1966 | 6 | 79.5 | 2 | 76 | 5
1967 | 6 | 73.33 | 3 | 68.6 | 4
1968 | 12 | 74.75 | 7 | 73.64 | 7
1969 | 12 | 90.83 | 5 | 87.64 | 6
1970 | 12 | 79.92 | 4 | 76.27 | 6
1971 | 14 | 92.43 | 6 | 87.85 | 6
1972 | 14 | 93.57 | 7 | 90.54 | 8
1973 | 16 | 95.12 | 5 | 92.8 | 10
1974 | 16 | 90.06 | 4 | 86.4 | 6
1975 | 18 | 100.83 | 7 | 98.82 | 8
1976 | 18 | 101.28 | 9 | 99.88 | 10
1977 | 18 | 93 | 8 | 90.47 | 8
1978 | 18 | 92.83 | 6 | 90.53 | 7
1979 | 17 | 100.88 | 8 | 98.81 | 8
1980 | 21 | 100.14 | 8 | 98.3 | 9
1981 | 21 | 106.05 | 7 | 103.15 | 10
1982 | 21 | 113.62 | 9 | 108.7 | 9
1983 | 21 | 105.33 | 8 | 100.8 | 12
1984 | 21 | 109.05 | 9 | 104.25 | 11
1985 | 21 | 111.38 | 7 | 106.55 | 7
1986 | 21 | 112.52 | 8 | 107.4 | 9
1987 | 21 | 97.48 | 8 | 93.2 | 11
1988 | 21 | 107.24 | 8 | 104.2 | 11
1989 | 21 | 109.86 | 8 | 105.4 | 8
1990 | 21 | 105.81 | 8 | 104 | 9
1991 | 21 | 102.43 | 10 | 99.4 | 11
1992 | 22 | 99.95 | 10 | 98.48 | 11
1993 | 24 | 117.12 | 11 | 115.26 | 11
1994 | 26 | 98.42 | 11 | 97.16 | 11
1995 | 26 | 53.19 | 10 | 52.52 | 12
1996 | 26 | 104.5 | 11 | 102.24 | 12
1997 | 26 | 88.08 | 10 | 86.72 | 11
1998 | 26 | 78.15 | 11 | 77.2 | 13
1999 | 27 | 82.56 | 13 | 80.85 | 14
2000 | 28 | 77.79 | 13 | 77.11 | 13
2001 | 30 | 86.43 | 13 | 85.24 | 13
2002 | 30 | 74.9 | 16 | 74.17 | 16
2003 | 30 | 82.57 | 13 | 81.76 | 13
2004 | 30 | 74.67 | 15 | 74 | 15
2006 | 30 | 91.57 | 12 | 90.41 | 13
2007 | 30 | 91 | 14 | 90 | 15
2008 | 30 | 84.23 | 11 | 83.28 | 12
2009 | 30 | 84.2 | 12 | 83.21 | 13
2010 | 30 | 83.4 | 14 | 82.41 | 15
2011 | 30 | 77.47 | 10 | 76.55 | 11
2012 | 30 | 76.83 | 15 | 75.72 | 18
2013 | 30 | 48.07 | 13 | 47.66 | 17

One mod I am thinking of is using T-1 for split league years, PCHA and WHA, and the "war years".

What do you think of this?

 

[Sturminator]

VsN looks like it may have real potential. I think it should obviously begin at NHL consolidation and I anticipate distortions during the war years (league depth was a serious problem during that period), but this metric may prove just as good as non-war-fudged VsX with less complexity.

There is also the possibility that unforeseen difficulties arise in one era or the other. Post-expansion-era NHL may end up being problematic for this metric not due to Bobby Orr, but rather to a sudden, sharp uptick in the number of teams in the league. We shall see.

 

[Czech Your Math]

VsN looks like it may have real potential. I think it should obviously begin at NHL consolidation and I anticipate distortions during the war years (league depth was a serious problem during that period), but this metric may prove just as good as non-war-fudged VsX with less complexity.

There is also the possibility that unforeseen difficulties arise in one era or the other. Post-expansion-era NHL may end up being problematic for this metric not due to Bobby Orr, but rather to a sudden, sharp uptick in the number of teams in the league. We shall see.

The post-expansion NHL (~'68-'75) is always going to be a problem IMO. I think one probably has to choose whether they want the benchmark to be most useful when comparing the very top superstars (e.g. Orr, Espo, Clarke, Lafleur, Dionne) or more run of the mill star forwards.

One idea I had, that seems to work pretty well, is to use something like this starting with post-expansion:

Count the number of teams represented in the top 1N scorers.
Use that number as the "N" for that year.

For example, if there were 21 teams in the NHL that season, and there were 12 teams represented in the top 21 scorers, then use an average of the top 12 scorers as the VsN # for that season. This seems to put most of Espo's seasons on a more realistic level ('74 being the exception). Problems with this method would be determining how to treat players that tied for the Nth spot and players that were traded during the season. Also, I would keep the original method for pre-expansion seasons, it might be best to set a minimum of 6 as N (only necessary for the '71 and perhaps '68 seasons).

---------------

As far as the WWII years, it seems like it's mainly '44 & '45 that are a problem. I think one could use an objective method to adjust those seasons. This is what I came up with for VsN:

Determine which top players missed seasons due to WWII.
It appears that '43 to '46 are the four seasons affected.
Use the 1-3 seasons before & after the '43-'46 period as a sort of control to calculate an adjustment factor.
When calculating for any of the seasons during the war years, deduct those players who were missing during that season, and use the difference to calculate an adjustment factor.

I know this sounds confusing, so here is an example:

The season for which we are calculating an adjustment is 1944-45.
One of the control seasons used for the calculation will be 1941-42.
Normally we would just take the top N (in this case, 7) players and average their point totals:

1. Bryan Hextall*-NYR 56
2. Lynn Patrick*-NYR 54
3. Don Grosso-DET 53
4. Phil Watson-NYR 52
5. Sid Abel*-DET 49
6. Toe Blake*-MTL 45
Bill Thoms-CBH 45

This would give us an average of 354 / 7 = 50.57 points

Since we are calculating for '45, we deduct any players from the list who missed the '45 season due to WWII, until we reach 7 remaining players. The players deducted are bolded in the following list. The remaining players which will be used in the new calculation are underlined:

1. Bryan Hextall*-NYR 56
2. Lynn Patrick*-NYR 54
3. Don Grosso-DET 53
4. Phil Watson-NYR 52
5. Sid Abel*-DET 49
6. Toe Blake*-MTL 45
Bill Thoms-CBH 45
8. Gordie Drillon*-TOR 41
Syl Apps*-TOR 41
Tom Anderson-BRO 41
11. Billy Taylor-TOR 38
Eddie Wares-DET 38
13. Roy Conacher*-BOS 37
Mel Hill-BRO 37
15. Sweeney Schriner*-TOR 36

So using only players that were available during the '45 season (if not for WWII), the 1N score in '42 would have been: 309/7 = 44.14

The adjustment factor is simply the actual 1N divided by the "would have been" 1N: 50.57 / 44.14 = 1.146

I also calculated a similar score for the '45 season, using the '47 season (the first season after the war period) as control. In this case the adjustment factor was: 62.17 / 55.50 = 1.150

So if one was using only the first seasons before and after the war period, then the adjustment factor would be: (1.146 + 1.150) / 2 = 1.148

So the "adjusted" 1N for the '45 season would then be the actual 1N for '45 multiplied by the calculated adjustment factor:

1. Elmer Lach*-MTL 80
2. Maurice Richard*-MTL 73
3. Toe Blake*-MTL 67
4. Bill Cowley*-BOS 65
5. Ted Kennedy*-TOR 54
Bill Mosienko*-CBH 54

1N = 393 / 6 = 65.5
Adjustment factor = 1.148
Adjusted 1N = 65.5 * 1.148 = 75.19

I did this rather quickly for each of the 4 war seasons, using 1-3 control seasons both before and after the war period ('42 & '47 = one season; '40-42 & '47-49 = three seasons). These were the calculated adjustment factors, which definitely would need double-checking:

YEAR 1Year 2Years 3Years
-------------------------
1943 1.013 1.008 1.026
1944 1.106 1.080 1.098
1945 1.148 1.110 1.124
1946 1.035 1.025 1.037

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I think VsN could be worth exploring. I would hope you would do it in a new thread, though - this one is already getting kind of cluttered. Plus VsN would be an entirely different (though related) formula to VsX.

 

[Czech Your Math]

The "Vx3" benchmark is significantly lower in three years: 1945 (67 vs 78), 1946 (50 vs 60) and 1944 (74 vs 95). All, obviously, are seasons heavily impacted by the WWII talent depletion.

Based on the changes in their rankings, and the new relative rankings, the Vs3 method seems to systematically overrate WWII era players and underrate post-expansion era players (which is exactly what we'd expect based on the changes in benchmarks I described earlier). Bill Cowley is ranked ahead of Beliveau, Lafleur and Dionne. Elmer Lach is ranked ahead of Sakic, Yzerman and Selanne. Yvan Cournoyer is ranked on par with Olli Jokinen and Dino Ciccarelli.

Conclusion: although there's a cost of added complexity, the VsX system, using Sturm's metrics, is clearly superior to the Vs3 system, which is systematically biased for/against players from certain eras.

Here are the war-adjusted Vs3 numbers that I calculated by using "control" years of the three seasons before ('40 to '42) and three seasons after ('47 to '49). I calculated an adjustment factor based on what the Vs3 normally would calculate to in each of the "control" years divided by what it would be if you deducted the players missing during each of the war years.

The war-adjusted Vs3 calculated as follows:

'43: instead of 70, use 71.20
'44: instead of 74, use 79.29
'45: instead of 67, use 75.04
'46: instead of 50, use 51.01

I'm just curious how that affects the results for war-era players.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Here are the results for Vs3, using the modified benchmark for the four WWII-impacted years, as indicated above (ten years, unweighted):

Rank|Player|Result
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 154.4
2 | Phil Esposito | 123.2
3 | Gordie Howe | 120.8
4 | Mario Lemieux | 115.8
5 | Jaromir Jagr | 114.2
6 | Bobby Orr | 108.1
7 | Stan Mikita | 105.5
8 | Bobby Hull | 103.8
9 | Maurice Richard | 103.1
10 | Jean Beliveau | 101.8
11 | Guy Lafleur | 101.7
12 | Marcel Dionne | 101.5
13 | Sidney Crosby | 100.2
14 | Howie Morenz | 100.2
15 | Bill Cowley | 100
16 | Ted Lindsay | 99.9
17 | Andy Bathgate | 99.7
18 | Alex Ovechkin | 98.5
19 | Joe Thornton | 95.6
20 | Mike Bossy | 95.6
21 | Teemu Selanne | 95.2
22 | Max Bentley | 94.7
23 | Joe Sakic | 94.2
24 | Bill Cook | 94.2
25 | Charlie Conacher | 94.2
26 | Syl Apps Sr | 94.2
27 | Evgeni Malkin | 93.1
28 | Peter Forsberg | 92.7
29 | Elmer Lach | 92.7
30 | Frank Boucher | 91.9
31 | Doug Bentley | 91.6
32 | Marty Barry | 91
33 | Peter Stastny | 90.7
34 | Bernie Geoffrion | 90.5
35 | Steve Yzerman | 90.4
36 | Jarome Iginla | 90.3
37 | Martin St. Louis | 90.2
38 | Sweeney Schriner | 90.1
39 | Mark Messier | 89.9
40 | Sid Abel | 89.6
41 | Bryan Trottier | 89.3
42 | Adam Oates | 88.8
43 | Toe Blake | 88.7
44 | Bobby Clarke | 88.5
45 | Jari Kurri | 88.4
46 | Jean Ratelle | 88.2
47 | Paul Kariya | 87.9
48 | Gordie Drillon | 87.8
49 | Denis Savard | 87.5
50 | Paul Coffey | 87.4
51 | Roy Conacher | 87.3
52 | Busher Jackson | 86.9
53 | Milt Schmidt | 86.8
54 | Ilya Kovalchuk | 86.7
55 | Mark Recchi | 86.6
56 | Pavel Bure | 86.1
57 | Dale Hawerchuk | 85.9
58 | Nels Stewart | 85.6
59 | Syd Howe | 85.4
60 | John LeClair | 85.1
61 | Markus Naslund | 85
62 | Gilbert Perreault | 84.6
63 | Frank Mahovlich | 84.4
64 | Dickie Moore | 84.4
65 | Dany Heatley | 84.3
66 | Henrik Sedin | 84.1
67 | Norm Ullman | 84
68 | Henri Richard | 83.9
69 | Nicklas Backstrom | 83.6
70 | Ron Francis | 83.6
71 | Marian Hossa | 83.2
72 | Alex Delvecchio | 83.1
73 | Daniel Alfredsson | 83
74 | Ziggy Palffy | 82.7
75 | Luc Robitaille | 82.1
76 | Daniel Sedin | 82.1
77 | Brett Hull | 82
78 | Jeremy Roenick | 82
79 | Theoren Fleury | 81.8
80 | Darryl Sittler | 81.8
81 | Eric Lindros | 81.7
82 | Jason Spezza | 81.6
83 | Aurel Joliat | 81.5
84 | Rod Gilbert | 81.5
85 | Pavel Datsyuk | 81.5
86 | Mats Sundin | 81.5
87 | Paul Thompson | 81.1
88 | Michel Goulet | 80.9
89 | John Bucyk | 80.6
90 | Bill Mosienko | 80.5
91 | Steven Stamkos | 80.4
92 | Alexei Yashin | 80.2
93 | Lynn Patrick | 80.2
94 | Pierre Turgeon | 80.2
95 | Keith Tkachuk | 80
96 | Ted Kennedy | 79.9
97 | Patrik Elias | 79.9
98 | Alexander Mogilny | 79.6
99 | Clint Smith | 79
100 | Doug Weight | 78.9
101 | Brendan Shanahan | 78.9
102 | Mike Modano | 78.8
103 | Sergei Fedorov | 78.8
104 | Cecil Dillon | 78.8
105 | Ryan Getzlaf | 78.7
106 | Doug Gilmour | 78.7
107 | Brad Richards | 78.3
108 | Alex Kovalev | 78.2
109 | Cooney Weiland | 78.1
110 | Bernie Nicholls | 78
111 | Vincent Lecavalier | 77.8
112 | Pat LaFontaine | 77.2
113 | Lorne Carr | 77
114 | Pavol Demitra | 77
115 | Bernie Federko | 76.6
116 | Red Kelly | 76.4
117 | Bun Cook | 76.4
118 | Eric Staal | 76.1
119 | Bobby Bauer | 76.1
120 | Hooley Smith | 76.1
121 | Marc Savard | 75.9
122 | Anze Kopitar | 75.8
123 | Herbie Lewis | 75.6
124 | Bobby Rousseau | 75.5
125 | Phil Watson | 75.4
126 | Henrik Zetterberg | 75.4
127 | Bert Olmstead | 75.3
128 | Joe Primeau | 75.2
129 | Ken Hodge | 75.1
130 | Patrick Kane | 74.9
131 | Jacques Lemaire | 74.8
132 | Ray Whitney | 74.8
133 | Patrick Marleau | 74.7
134 | Milan Hejduk | 74.5
135 | Raymond Bourque | 74.5
136 | Vincent Damphousse | 74.4
137 | Phil Kessel | 74.4
138 | Corey Perry | 74.3
139 | Claude Giroux | 74.2
140 | Johnny Gottselig | 73.7
141 | Glenn Anderson | 73.7
142 | Alex Tanguay | 73.6
143 | Rod Brind'Amour | 73.5
144 | Don McKenney | 73.5
145 | Gaye Stewart | 73.4
146 | Tony Amonte | 73.4
147 | Denis Potvin | 73.2
148 | Woody Dumart | 73.2
149 | Phil Goyette | 73.2
150 | Rick Middleton | 73.1
151 | Neil Colville | 73.1
152 | Lanny McDonald | 73
153 | Eddie Wiseman | 72.8
154 | Brian Leetch | 72.7
155 | Bill Thoms | 72.3
156 | Kent Nilsson | 72.2
157 | Peter Bondra | 72
158 | Mike Ribeiro | 72
159 | Marian Gaborik | 71.9
160 | Zach Parise | 71.9
161 | Steve Larmer | 71.8
162 | Rick Martin | 71.7
163 | Kenny Wharram | 71.7
164 | Johnny Gagnon | 71.5
165 | Tod Sloan | 71.4
166 | Rick MacLeish | 71.3
167 | Dit Clapper | 71.3
168 | Dennis Maruk | 71.3
169 | Dino Ciccarelli | 70.9
170 | Joe Mullen | 70.6
171 | Olli Jokinen | 70.4
172 | Yvan Cournoyer | 70.4
173 | Bryan Hextall | 70.3
174 | Pete Mahovlich | 70.2
175 | Todd Bertuzzi | 70
176 | Larry Aurie | 70
177 | Jimmy Ward | 69.8
178 | Ebbie Goodfellow | 69.7
179 | Rick Nash | 69.6
180 | Dave Andreychuk | 69.5
181 | Rene Robert | 69.4
182 | Martin Straka | 69.3
183 | Buddy O'Connor | 69.3
184 | Baldy Northcott | 69.2
185 | Steve Sullivan | 69.2
186 | Sid Smith | 69.2
187 | Steve Shutt | 69.1
188 | Dave Taylor | 69.1
189 | Scott Gomez | 69.1
190 | Claude Provost | 68.9
191 | Alex Zhamnov | 68.8
192 | Jonathan Toews | 68.7
193 | Miroslav Satan | 68.7
194 | Al MacInnis | 68.5
195 | Herb Cain | 68.5
196 | Garry Unger | 68.4
197 | Paul Ronty | 68.4
198 | Jason Pominville | 68.3
199 | Ace Bailey | 68.1
200 | Kevin Stevens | 68.1
201 | Nicklas Lidstrom | 68
202 | Robert Lang | 67.9
203 | Jason Allison | 67.9
204 | Shane Doan | 67.9
205 | Dave Keon | 67.8
206 | Syl Apps | 67.8
207 | Mike Gartner | 67.8
208 | Billy Taylor | 67.7
209 | Pit Martin | 67.7
210 | Thomas Vanek | 67.6
211 | Gus Bodnar | 67.6
212 | Bill Hay | 67.4
213 | Camille Henry | 67.3
214 | Bobby Smith | 67.2
215 | Glen Murray | 67.1
216 | Joe Nieuwendyk | 66.9
217 | John Tavares | 66.9
218 | Bill Barber | 66.8
219 | Vaclav Prospal | 66.3
220 | Petr Nedved | 66.3
221 | Pierre Larouche | 66.3
222 | Dean Prentice | 66.2
223 | Art Chapman | 66
224 | Brian Propp | 66
225 | Fred Stanfield | 66
226 | Cory Stillman | 65.9
227 | Charlie Simmer | 65.7
228 | Murray Oliver | 65.7
229 | Owen Nolan | 65.6
230 | Craig Janney | 65.5
231 | Ed Litzenberger | 65.4
232 | Barry Pederson | 65.4
233 | Paul Stastny | 65.3
234 | Alexander Semin | 65.1
235 | Vic Hadfield | 65.1
236 | Dennis Hull | 65
237 | Patrick Sharp | 65
238 | Brian Bellows | 65
239 | Peter McNab | 64.9
240 | Bill Guerin | 64.9
241 | Neal Broten | 64.9
242 | Petr Sykora | 64.9
243 | Joe Pavelski | 64.7
244 | Simon Gagne | 64.7
245 | Red Berenson | 64.7
246 | Robert Reichel | 64.7
247 | Johnny Peirson | 64.7
248 | Wilf Paiement | 64.6
249 | Jozef Stumpel | 64.5
250 | Vyacheslav Kozlov | 64.5

Not going to do a detailed analysis here, but a quick glance shows that the results for WWII era stars appear to be more reasonable.

 

[Czech Your Math]

Two seasons that don't seem right to me:

1962 & 1995. In each case there was a tie for the lead in scoring. Shouldn't there be a rule that a point total that leads the league can't be used as the benchmark?

 

[Sturminator]

Two seasons that don't seem right to me:

1962 & 1995. In each case there was a tie for the lead in scoring. Shouldn't there be a rule that a point total that leads the league can't be used as the benchmark?

Are you suggesting that we ought to use the #3 scorer for these seasons? This presents the following problem:

The 1961-62 top-5 leaderboard was as follows:

Hull - 84
Bathgate - 84
Howe - 77
Mikita - 77
Mahovlich - 71

If we use the #3 scorer here, that might seem to make sense with the numbers as they are, but what if Andy Bathgate scores one point fewer?...then we would need to use his hypothetical 83 points as the benchmark. So, in a proposed fix where the benchmark is set at #3 in case of a tie, we have the problem of the benchmark tracking with Bathgate over the 78 -> 83 point range, but then jumping back down to Howe at 77 as soon as Bathgate hits 84 points. This is a bad idea for reasons which I think should be obvious with the problem framed in this way.

"Jumpy" benchmarks are bad juju. A certain amount of "jumpiness" is unavoidable (for example, the 10% rule would cause a jump to the #3 value if Hull/Mikita fell down to 75 points scored), but it should be avoided whenever possible.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

The point of comparing to #2 is to avoid most outliers (with the additional added complications to avoid other outliers). If #1 and 2 are tied, then #1 is not an outlier, right?

 

[Sturminator]

The point of comparing to #2 is to avoid most outliers (with the additional added complications to avoid other outliers). If #1 and 2 are tied, then #1 is not an outlier, right?

Unless both #1 and #2 are both 10% or further ahead of #3 (or there is some other big gap deeper in the top-5), yeah, that's the basic idea.

The "jumpiness" of the 10% gap rule is bothering me now, though. I'll put some thought into coming up with a simplified system to address this problem.

 

[Hardyvan123]

A look at Crosby and Ovechkin's VsX. They're the two biggest stars of the past decade and their VsX scores finally dropped non-elite seasons (i.e. this season was their 7th season with a really high VsX score).

Year | Crosby | Ovechkin
2005-06 | 96.2 | 100.0
2006-07 | 105.3 | 80.7
2007-08 | 67.9 | 105.6
2008-09 | 93.6 | 100.0
2009-10 | 100.0 | 100.0
2010-11 | 66.7 | 85.9
2011-12 | 38.1 | 67.0
2012-13 | 98.2 | 98.2
2013-14 | 119.5 | 90.8
2014-15 | 97.7 | 94.2
Unweighted Average | 101.5 | 98.4

If the benchmark stays around the 85 point mark next season it would require Crosby to have 80+ points and Ovi to have 77+ points to change their scores. Both are likely.

Also goes to show just how dominant Gretzky was. He averages 155.3 over his best seven years. A 155.3 in 2014-15 would be 133 points. His best VsX score (1.69 in 86-87) would be 145 points today.

Sid's line is remarkable considering he missed 1/4 of a season in one of his best 7 year scores and is 15th all time right now in the 7 year VsX metric listed above.

And 23rd in the 10 year metric, which includes every injured season.

It will be very interesting to see where he ends up on these lists, top 10 is looking pretty likely at this point, maybe even higher.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

VxS UPDATED THROUGH 2016 - TEN BEST SEASONS OF CAREER - GOALS

Rank|Player|Goals
1 | Bobby Hull | 64.9
2 | Maurice Richard | 61.2
3 | Gordie Howe | 61.1
4 | Phil Esposito | 56.3
5 | Alex Ovechkin | 55.5
6 | Wayne Gretzky | 53.9
7 | Brett Hull | 51.1
8 | Jean Beliveau | 50.4
9 | Mario Lemieux | 49.9
10 | Mike Bossy | 49.4
11 | Frank Mahovlich | 47.3
12 | Nels Stewart | 47.3
13 | Jaromir Jagr | 46.7
14 | Bernie Geoffrion | 45.9
15 | Ted Lindsay | 45.5
16 | Stan Mikita | 45.2
17 | Bill Cook | 45
18 | Marcel Dionne | 44.5
19 | Teemu Selanne | 44.4
20 | Charlie Conacher | 43.7
21 | Ilya Kovalchuk | 43.5
22 | Norm Ullman | 43.3
23 | Jarome Iginla | 43.1
24 | Steve Yzerman | 42.9
25 | Luc Robitaille | 42.7
26 | Roy Conacher | 42.7
27 | Pavel Bure | 42.6
28 | Peter Bondra | 42.1
29 | Guy Lafleur | 41
30 | Keith Tkachuk | 40.6
31 | Joe Sakic | 40.5
32 | Busher Jackson | 40.4
33 | Jari Kurri | 40.2
34 | Andy Bathgate | 39.8
35 | John Bucyk | 39.6
36 | Brendan Shanahan | 39.6
37 | Sweeney Schriner | 39.6
38 | Bryan Hextall | 39.5
39 | Toe Blake | 39.4
40 | Mike Gartner | 39.1
41 | Syl Apps Sr | 39
42 | Marty Barry | 39
43 | Howie Morenz | 38.9
44 | Marian Hossa | 38.7
45 | Rick Nash | 38.6
46 | John LeClair | 38.4
47 | Max Bentley | 38.2
48 | Syd Howe | 38.1
49 | Yvan Cournoyer | 37.9
50 | Steven Stamkos | 37.8
51 | Michel Goulet | 37.8
52 | Mats Sundin | 37.6
53 | Dany Heatley | 37.4
54 | Camille Henry | 37.2
55 | Joe Nieuwendyk | 37
56 | Aurel Joliat | 37
57 | Pat LaFontaine | 36.9
58 | Rod Gilbert | 36.8
59 | Dino Ciccarelli | 36.8
60 | Dickie Moore | 36.8
61 | Alexander Mogilny | 36.8
62 | Theoren Fleury | 36.7
63 | Lorne Carr | 36.7
64 | Patrick Marleau | 36.4
65 | Dave Keon | 36.4
66 | Sidney Crosby | 36.4
67 | Corey Perry | 36.4
68 | Rick Martin | 36.2
69 | Eric Lindros | 36.2
70 | Cecil Dillon | 36.1
71 | Jean Ratelle | 36
72 | Paul Kariya | 36
73 | Lanny McDonald | 35.9
74 | Markus Naslund | 35.8
75 | Bill Mosienko | 35.8
76 | Alex Delvecchio | 35.7
77 | Mike Modano | 35.6
78 | Joe Mullen | 35.6
79 | Dale Hawerchuk | 35.5
80 | Mark Messier | 35.5
81 | Darryl Sittler | 35.4
82 | Sergei Fedorov | 35.4
83 | Doug Bentley | 35.3
84 | Tony Amonte | 35.2
85 | Herb Cain | 35.1
86 | Jeremy Roenick | 35
87 | Pierre Turgeon | 34.9
88 | Martin St. Louis | 34.9
89 | Dave Andreychuk | 34.9
90 | Henri Richard | 34.8
91 | Marian Gaborik | 34.8
92 | Garry Unger | 34.7
93 | Kenny Wharram | 34.7
94 | Woody Dumart | 34.5
95 | Milan Hejduk | 34.4
96 | Ted Kennedy | 34.4
97 | Steve Shutt | 34.2
98 | Ziggy Palffy | 34.2
99 | Dit Clapper | 34.2
100 | Mark Recchi | 34.1
101 | Jeff Carter | 34.1
102 | Bill Barber | 34.1
103 | Cam Neely | 34
104 | Bryan Trottier | 34
105 | Milt Schmidt | 34
106 | Glenn Anderson | 33.9
107 | Gilbert Perreault | 33.8
108 | Pat Verbeek | 33.7
109 | Ken Hodge | 33.7
110 | Vincent Lecavalier | 33.7
111 | Zach Parise | 33.7
112 | Thomas Vanek | 33.6
113 | Eric Staal | 33.5
114 | Bernie Nicholls | 33.4
115 | Owen Nolan | 33.4
116 | Jacques Lemaire | 33.3
117 | Alexei Yashin | 33
118 | Evgeni Malkin | 33
119 | Rick Vaive | 33
120 | Bill Guerin | 32.9
121 | Dean Prentice | 32.9
122 | Gordie Drillon | 32.8
123 | Patrik Elias | 32.8
124 | Bill Cowley | 32.8
125 | Miroslav Satan | 32.8
126 | Sid Abel | 32.8
127 | Rick Middleton | 32.7
128 | Daniel Alfredsson | 32.7
129 | Peter Stastny | 32.6
130 | Steve Larmer | 32.5
131 | Don McKenney | 32.3
132 | Phil Kessel | 32.1
133 | Reggie Leach | 32
134 | Jean Pronovost | 31.9
135 | Cooney Weiland | 31.9
136 | Harry Watson | 31.9
137 | Ray Sheppard | 31.8
138 | Brian Bellows | 31.8
139 | Tod Sloan | 31.7
140 | Ron Ellis | 31.4
141 | Rick MacLeish | 31.2
142 | Rick Tocchet | 31
143 | Daniel Sedin | 31
144 | Joe Pavelski | 30.9
145 | Gary Roberts | 30.9
146 | Denis Savard | 30.9
147 | Dick Duff | 30.9
148 | John Ogrodnick | 30.8
149 | Alex Kovalev | 30.8
150 | Gaye Stewart | 30.8
151 | Johnny Gottselig | 30.8
152 | Bun Cook | 30.7
153 | Tim Kerr | 30.6
154 | Paul Thompson | 30.6
155 | Elmer Lach | 30.6
156 | Stephane Richer | 30.5
157 | Pierre Larouche | 30.5
158 | Lynn Patrick | 30.5
159 | Ryan Smyth | 30.4
160 | Glen Murray | 30.2
161 | John MacLean | 30.2
162 | Brian Propp | 30.2
163 | Bob Nevin | 30.1
164 | Dennis Hull | 30.1
165 | Jason Spezza | 30
166 | Larry Aurie | 30
167 | Herbie Lewis | 29.8
168 | Jonathan Toews | 29.8
169 | Bobby Rousseau | 29.8
170 | Patrick Kane | 29.7
171 | Bob Pulford | 29.7
172 | Danny Gare | 29.7
173 | Pavol Demitra | 29.6
174 | Sid Smith | 29.5
175 | Ralph Backstrom | 29.5
176 | Vic Hadfield | 29.5
177 | Dave Taylor | 29.5
178 | Claude Provost | 29.4
179 | Clint Smith | 29.3
180 | Rick Kehoe | 29.3
181 | Olli Jokinen | 29.2
182 | Hooley Smith | 29.2
183 | Adam Graves | 29.1
184 | Pavel Datsyuk | 29.1
185 | Jim Pappin | 29.1
186 | Rod Brind'Amour | 28.9
187 | Vincent Damphousse | 28.9
188 | Petr Sykora | 28.9
189 | Tomas Sandstrom | 28.9
190 | Shane Doan | 28.8
191 | Jimmy Ward | 28.8
192 | Simon Gagne | 28.8
193 | Butch Keeling | 28.7
194 | Bill Goldsworthy | 28.7
195 | Geoff Sanderson | 28.7
196 | Henrik Zetterberg | 28.6
197 | Don Marshall | 28.6
198 | Jason Arnott | 28.6
199 | Charlie Simmer | 28.5
200 | Kevin Stevens | 28.5
201 | Greg Adams | 28.4
202 | Bobby Orr | 28.4
203 | Ray Whitney | 28.3
204 | Joe Thornton | 28.3
205 | Claude Lemieux | 28.3
206 | George Armstrong | 28.1
207 | Peter McNab | 28.1
208 | Patrick Sharp | 28.1
209 | Steve Thomas | 28
210 | Mike Bullard | 28
211 | Frank Boucher | 28
212 | Red Kelly | 27.9
213 | Ray Ferraro | 27.9
214 | Geoff Courtnall | 27.8
215 | Dennis Maruk | 27.8
216 | Petr Nedved | 27.7
217 | Pit Martin | 27.6
218 | Baldy Northcott | 27.6
219 | Scott Hartnell | 27.5
220 | Dave Gagner | 27.5
221 | Paul MacLean | 27.4
222 | Andy Hebenton | 27.4
223 | Anze Kopitar | 27.4
224 | John Sorrell | 27.3
225 | Murray Oliver | 27.3
226 | Butch Goring | 27.2
227 | Paul Henderson | 27.1
228 | Bobby Clarke | 27
229 | Alexander Semin | 27
230 | Bill Thoms | 26.9
231 | Buzz Boll | 26.9
232 | Wilf Paiement | 26.9
233 | Hec Kilrea | 26.8
234 | Jason Pominville | 26.8
235 | Ivan Boldirev | 26.8
236 | Brian Rolston | 26.8
237 | Chris Kunitz | 26.7
238 | Doug Mohns | 26.6
239 | Wendel Clark | 26.6
240 | Michael Ryder | 26.5
241 | Danny Grant | 26.4
242 | Doug Gilmour | 26.4
243 | Brian Gionta | 26.4
244 | Ron Francis | 26.3
245 | Vyacheslav Kozlov | 26.3
246 | Ed Olczyk | 26.3
247 | Pete Mahovlich | 26.2
248 | Paul Coffey | 26.2
249 | Ed Litzenberger | 26.2
250 | James Neal | 26.1

Ovechkin rises to 6th place based on peak.

Through the first eleven seasons of his career, Ovechkin has the 2nd highest cumulative VsX goal-scoring total, behind only Bobby Hull.

Stamkos continues to climb the latter and is now in 50th place (despite only playing in eight seasons).

 

[Hockey Outsider]

VxS UPDATED THROUGH 2016 - TEN BEST SEASONS OF CAREER - POINTS

Rank|Player|Points
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 144.7
2 | Gordie Howe | 118.1
3 | Phil Esposito | 117.6
4 | Mario Lemieux | 112
5 | Jaromir Jagr | 105.9
6 | Stan Mikita | 102.5
7 | Bobby Hull | 101.8
8 | Jean Beliveau | 100
9 | Maurice Richard | 97.9
10 | Marcel Dionne | 97.5
11 | Ted Lindsay | 95.8
12 | Andy Bathgate | 95.6
13 | Sidney Crosby | 94.1
14 | Joe Sakic | 94
15 | Alex Ovechkin | 93.5
16 | Bobby Orr | 92.1
17 | Guy Lafleur | 91
18 | Joe Thornton | 90.8
19 | Mike Bossy | 89.4
20 | Howie Morenz | 88.9
21 | Frank Boucher | 88.8
22 | Steve Yzerman | 88.8
23 | Teemu Selanne | 88.7
24 | Bryan Trottier | 87.2
25 | Nels Stewart | 87.1
26 | Bill Cowley | 86.7
27 | Martin St. Louis | 86.3
28 | Adam Oates | 86.2
29 | Jean Ratelle | 85.3
30 | Mark Messier | 85
31 | Norm Ullman | 84.7
32 | Bill Cook | 84.4
33 | Mark Recchi | 84.3
34 | Ron Francis | 84.2
35 | Frank Mahovlich | 84.1
36 | John Bucyk | 83.9
37 | Syl Apps Sr | 83.9
38 | Brett Hull | 83.6
39 | Bobby Clarke | 83.5
40 | Bernie Geoffrion | 83.4
41 | Alex Delvecchio | 82.9
42 | Charlie Conacher | 82.5
43 | Peter Forsberg | 82.1
44 | Paul Coffey | 82
45 | Marty Barry | 81.8
46 | Dale Hawerchuk | 81.7
47 | Gilbert Perreault | 81.6
48 | Jarome Iginla | 81.5
49 | Toe Blake | 81.4
50 | Jari Kurri | 81.2
51 | Luc Robitaille | 80.9
52 | Peter Stastny | 80.8
53 | Darryl Sittler | 80.4
54 | Busher Jackson | 80.2
55 | Max Bentley | 80
56 | Mats Sundin | 79.9
57 | Rod Gilbert | 79.7
58 | Sweeney Schriner | 79.7
59 | Henrik Sedin | 79.5
60 | Elmer Lach | 79.2
61 | Pierre Turgeon | 78.9
62 | Henri Richard | 78.9
63 | Milt Schmidt | 78.8
64 | Paul Kariya | 78.6
65 | Evgeni Malkin | 78.5
66 | Marian Hossa | 78.1
67 | Denis Savard | 78
68 | Theoren Fleury | 77.9
69 | Mike Modano | 77.7
70 | Syd Howe | 77.7
71 | Daniel Alfredsson | 77.4
72 | Sergei Fedorov | 77.1
73 | Doug Gilmour | 77.1
74 | Pavel Datsyuk | 77.1
75 | Ilya Kovalchuk | 76.9
76 | Doug Bentley | 76.7
77 | Daniel Sedin | 76.4
78 | Jeremy Roenick | 76.1
79 | Eric Lindros | 76
80 | Sid Abel | 75.8
81 | Aurel Joliat | 75.1
82 | Ryan Getzlaf | 74.8
83 | Brendan Shanahan | 74.4
84 | Dickie Moore | 74.3
85 | Roy Conacher | 74.1
86 | Jason Spezza | 74.1
87 | Eric Staal | 74
88 | Bernie Federko | 74
89 | Ken Hodge | 74
90 | Keith Tkachuk | 73.9
91 | Ted Kennedy | 73.8
92 | Bernie Nicholls | 73.7
93 | Patrik Elias | 73.6
94 | Brad Richards | 73.2
95 | Markus Naslund | 73
96 | Alexander Mogilny | 72.9
97 | Pavel Bure | 72.7
98 | Henrik Zetterberg | 72.6
99 | Anze Kopitar | 72.4
100 | Dany Heatley | 72.3
101 | Patrick Kane | 72.3
102 | Doug Weight | 72.2
103 | Michel Goulet | 71.8
104 | Pat LaFontaine | 71.8
105 | Jacques Lemaire | 71.7
106 | Raymond Bourque | 71.5
107 | Yvan Cournoyer | 71.5
108 | Bryan Hextall | 71.3
109 | John LeClair | 71.2
110 | Vincent Damphousse | 71.1
111 | Vincent Lecavalier | 71
112 | Alexei Yashin | 70.8
113 | Dave Keon | 70.7
114 | Red Kelly | 70.5
115 | Bill Mosienko | 69.8
116 | Patrick Marleau | 69.7
117 | Hooley Smith | 69.5
118 | Ziggy Palffy | 69.4
119 | Nicklas Backstrom | 69.3
120 | Cooney Weiland | 69.3
121 | Bert Olmstead | 69.2
122 | Bobby Rousseau | 69.1
123 | Lorne Carr | 69
124 | Dit Clapper | 69
125 | Paul Thompson | 68.9
126 | Brian Leetch | 68.8
127 | Alex Kovalev | 68.7
128 | Phil Watson | 68.7
129 | Bun Cook | 68.7
130 | Rod Brind'Amour | 68.6
131 | Ray Whitney | 68.5
132 | Johnny Gottselig | 68.5
133 | Denis Potvin | 68.4
134 | Steve Larmer | 68.2
135 | Mike Ribeiro | 68.1
136 | Lanny McDonald | 68
137 | Lynn Patrick | 67.9
138 | Pavol Demitra | 67.7
139 | Corey Perry | 67.7
140 | Phil Goyette | 67.6
141 | Alex Tanguay | 67.6
142 | Woody Dumart | 67.5
143 | Pete Mahovlich | 67.5
144 | Tony Amonte | 67.5
145 | Rick Middleton | 67.2
146 | Cecil Dillon | 67.1
147 | Dino Ciccarelli | 66.9
148 | Clint Smith | 66.8
149 | Don McKenney | 66.8
150 | Joe Mullen | 66.6
151 | Peter Bondra | 66.6
152 | Milan Hejduk | 66.5
153 | Bobby Smith | 66.3
154 | Joe Nieuwendyk | 66.3
155 | Dave Andreychuk | 66.2
156 | Bill Barber | 66.2
157 | Al MacInnis | 66.1
158 | Mike Gartner | 66
159 | Herbie Lewis | 66
160 | Glenn Anderson | 65.7
161 | Nicklas Lidstrom | 65.6
162 | Bill Thoms | 64.8
163 | Brian Propp | 64.7
164 | Rick Nash | 64.6
165 | Pit Martin | 64.6
166 | Garry Unger | 64.1
167 | Zach Parise | 64
168 | Dave Taylor | 64
169 | Marc Savard | 64
170 | Dean Prentice | 63.9
171 | Ebbie Goodfellow | 63.7
172 | Dennis Maruk | 63.5
173 | Marian Gaborik | 63.5
174 | Phil Kessel | 63.5
175 | Thomas Vanek | 63.4
176 | Rick MacLeish | 63.3
177 | Rick Martin | 63.2
178 | Scott Gomez | 63.2
179 | Shane Doan | 62.5
180 | Olli Jokinen | 62.4
181 | Phil Housley | 62.4
182 | Eddie Wiseman | 62.3
183 | Steven Stamkos | 62.3
184 | Tom Lysiak | 62.1
185 | Owen Nolan | 62.1
186 | Tod Sloan | 62
187 | Miroslav Satan | 62
188 | Steve Shutt | 61.6
189 | Jonathan Toews | 61.6
190 | Larry Aurie | 61.5
191 | Butch Goring | 61.4
192 | Patrice Bergeron | 61.4
193 | Alex Zhamnov | 61.4
194 | Brian Bellows | 61.3
195 | Herb Cain | 61.3
196 | Jason Pominville | 61.2
197 | Kenny Wharram | 61.1
198 | Wayne Cashman | 60.8
199 | Gordie Drillon | 60.7
200 | Steve Sullivan | 60.7
201 | Joe Pavelski | 60.7
202 | Dennis Hull | 60.4
203 | Craig Janney | 60.3
204 | Pat Verbeek | 60.3
205 | Rene Robert | 60
206 | Vic Hadfield | 59.9
207 | Todd Bertuzzi | 59.9
208 | Murray Oliver | 59.9
209 | Pierre Larouche | 59.8
210 | Petr Sykora | 59.7
211 | Robert Lang | 59.7
212 | Jimmy Ward | 59.7
213 | Jean Pronovost | 59.6
214 | Bob Nevin | 59.4
215 | Ryan Smyth | 59.3
216 | Claude Provost | 59.3
217 | Buddy O'Connor | 59.2
218 | Martin Straka | 59.1
219 | Camille Henry | 58.9
220 | Red Berenson | 58.8
221 | Kirk Muller | 58.8
222 | Ivan Boldirev | 58.8
223 | Johnny Gagnon | 58.7
224 | Brad Park | 58.7
225 | Jason Arnott | 58.6
226 | Petr Nedved | 58.6
227 | Vyacheslav Kozlov | 58.6
228 | Fred Stanfield | 58.5
229 | Cliff Ronning | 58.5
230 | Cory Stillman | 58.5
231 | Claude Giroux | 58.4
232 | Andrew Brunette | 58.3
233 | Neal Broten | 58.2
234 | Sergei Gonchar | 58.2
235 | Larry Murphy | 58.1
236 | Peter McNab | 58.1
237 | Jeff Carter | 58.1
238 | Wilf Paiement | 57.9
239 | Bill Guerin | 57.8
240 | Gary Roberts | 57.7
241 | George Armstrong | 57.6
242 | Jozef Stumpel | 57.6
243 | Walt Tkaczuk | 57.5
244 | Eddie Shore | 57.5
245 | Steve Thomas | 57.4
246 | Chris Drury | 57.2
247 | Paul Stastny | 57.2
248 | Kevin Stevens | 57.2
249 | Rick Tocchet | 57
250 | Patrick Sharp | 56.9

Crosby climbs to 13th, and Ovechkin rises to 15th. Ovechkin's results are pretty consistent and I`m not sure if he has a lot more potential to rise. Crosby has terrible (comparatively speaking) 9th- and 10th-best seasons due to injuries, so he has more potential to ascend the ranks.

Thornton had a surprisingly good campaign and climbs to 19th.

Kane won the Art Ross trophy by a wide margin, but he only has two elite offensive seasons so far (and a bunch of very good ones). He currently ranks 101st but has a lot of potential to keep climbing.

Sedin, Malkin, Getlzaf, Spezza, Zetterberg and Kopitar all make small jumps.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

HO, can you give 7 year VsX (the preferred measure for any comparison including pre-expansion players).

 

[ImporterExporter]

Thanks as always to the guys who calculate these!

It will be interesting to see how high Crosby can climb in the 10 year version, given that he does have a couple of injury riddled seasons to replace. Can he pass Beliveau at 8?

 

[MXD]

Thanks as always to the guys who calculate these!

It will be interesting to see how high Crosby can climb in the 10 year version, given that he does have a couple of injury riddled seasons to replace. Can he pass Beliveau at 8?

If the table quoted above is right, and if I understand the thing, a frankly below-average 16-17 season for him, or a season which in which Crosby is himself but otherwise misses 20 games, would be enough to end up a hair behind Beliveau. (For these purposes, a frankly below average season for him would still net him 80 "points").

 

[Hockey Outsider]

VxS UPDATED THROUGH 2016 - SEVEN BEST SEASONS OF CAREER - GOALS

Rank|Player|Goals
1 | Bobby Hull | 70.2
2 | Maurice Richard | 67.2
3 | Gordie Howe | 65.5
4 | Phil Esposito | 62.1
5 | Alex Ovechkin | 59.2
6 | Wayne Gretzky | 59
7 | Brett Hull | 56.3
8 | Mario Lemieux | 54.5
9 | Jean Beliveau | 54.4
10 | Charlie Conacher | 54.3
11 | Mike Bossy | 52.9
12 | Bill Cook | 52.7
13 | Bernie Geoffrion | 51.2
14 | Frank Mahovlich | 50.8
15 | Nels Stewart | 50.7
16 | Jaromir Jagr | 50.4
17 | Steven Stamkos | 50.4
18 | Pavel Bure | 50.3
19 | Stan Mikita | 50
20 | Roy Conacher | 49.6
21 | Ted Lindsay | 48.4
22 | Howie Morenz | 48.3
23 | Teemu Selanne | 48.3
24 | Guy Lafleur | 47.2
25 | Peter Bondra | 47.2
26 | Marcel Dionne | 47.2
27 | Steve Yzerman | 47
28 | Gordie Drillon | 46.9
29 | Norm Ullman | 46.7
30 | Ilya Kovalchuk | 46.6
31 | Jarome Iginla | 46.5
32 | Bryan Hextall | 46.3
33 | Marty Barry | 45.6
34 | Busher Jackson | 45.6
35 | Jari Kurri | 45.4
36 | John LeClair | 45.2
37 | Luc Robitaille | 44.7
38 | Sweeney Schriner | 44.3
39 | Andy Bathgate | 44.2
40 | Joe Sakic | 43.8
41 | Cecil Dillon | 43.6
42 | Keith Tkachuk | 43.4
43 | Camille Henry | 43.2
44 | Michel Goulet | 43.1
45 | John Bucyk | 42.8
46 | Rick Martin | 42.6
47 | Brendan Shanahan | 42.5
48 | Dickie Moore | 42.5
49 | Max Bentley | 42.3
50 | Toe Blake | 42.3
51 | Dany Heatley | 42.1
52 | Rick Nash | 41.7
53 | Mike Gartner | 41.6
54 | Syl Apps Sr | 41.6
55 | Yvan Cournoyer | 41.5
56 | Corey Perry | 41.4
57 | Aurel Joliat | 41.2
58 | Pat LaFontaine | 41
59 | Marian Hossa | 40.9
60 | Syd Howe | 40.9
61 | Lorne Carr | 40.7
62 | Cam Neely | 40.6
63 | Markus Naslund | 40.6
64 | Kenny Wharram | 40.4
65 | Doug Bentley | 40.3
66 | Ziggy Palffy | 40.3
67 | Gaye Stewart | 40.3
68 | Herb Cain | 40.3
69 | Paul Kariya | 40.2
70 | Eric Lindros | 40.2
71 | Alexander Mogilny | 40.2
72 | Theoren Fleury | 40
73 | Sidney Crosby | 39.9
74 | Joe Nieuwendyk | 39.8
75 | Lanny McDonald | 39.5
76 | Bill Mosienko | 39.5
77 | Steve Shutt | 39.4
78 | Tony Amonte | 39.3
79 | Mats Sundin | 39.3
80 | Sid Smith | 39.2
81 | Ken Hodge | 39.1
82 | Rod Gilbert | 39.1
83 | Alex Delvecchio | 39
84 | Patrick Marleau | 38.8
85 | Tim Kerr | 38.8
86 | Sid Abel | 38.8
87 | Dave Keon | 38.7
88 | Dino Ciccarelli | 38.6
89 | Marian Gaborik | 38.6
90 | Milan Hejduk | 38.5
91 | Evgeni Malkin | 38.5
92 | Jean Ratelle | 38.4
93 | Jeff Carter | 38.3
94 | Mike Modano | 38.2
95 | Jeremy Roenick | 38.1
96 | Ted Kennedy | 38
97 | Woody Dumart | 38
98 | Dave Andreychuk | 38
99 | Zach Parise | 37.9
100 | Dit Clapper | 37.9
101 | Joe Mullen | 37.9
102 | Dale Hawerchuk | 37.7
103 | Paul Thompson | 37.7
104 | Phil Kessel | 37.6
105 | Mark Messier | 37.4
106 | Garry Unger | 37.4
107 | Sergei Fedorov | 37.3
108 | Bill Cowley | 37.2
109 | Henri Richard | 37.2
110 | Glenn Anderson | 37.2
111 | Bernie Nicholls | 37.1
112 | Bryan Trottier | 37.1
113 | Alexei Yashin | 37.1
114 | Martin St. Louis | 37
115 | Thomas Vanek | 36.9
116 | John Tavares | 36.9
117 | Pierre Turgeon | 36.9
118 | Milt Schmidt | 36.9
119 | Gilbert Perreault | 36.8
120 | Bill Guerin | 36.8
121 | Tod Sloan | 36.8
122 | Pat Verbeek | 36.7
123 | Darryl Sittler | 36.7
124 | Bill Barber | 36.7
125 | Owen Nolan | 36.7
126 | Patrik Elias | 36.6
127 | Reggie Leach | 36.6
128 | Vincent Lecavalier | 36.6
129 | Rick Middleton | 36.5
130 | Lynn Patrick | 36.5
131 | Joe Pavelski | 36.4
132 | Mark Recchi | 36.4
133 | Cooney Weiland | 36.4
134 | Eric Staal | 36.4
135 | Rick MacLeish | 36.1
136 | Daniel Alfredsson | 36.1
137 | Miroslav Satan | 36
138 | Ray Sheppard | 36
139 | Don McKenney | 36
140 | Rick Vaive | 36
141 | Patrick Kane | 35.7
142 | Glen Murray | 35.7
143 | Jean Pronovost | 35.7
144 | Danny Gare | 35.7
145 | Peter Stastny | 35.5
146 | Jonathan Toews | 35.4
147 | Harry Watson | 35.4
148 | Dean Prentice | 35.3
149 | John Ogrodnick | 35.3
150 | Jacques Lemaire | 35.2
151 | Steve Larmer | 35.1
152 | Stephane Richer | 35.1
153 | Bun Cook | 35
154 | Bobby Bauer | 35
155 | Bobby Orr | 34.9
156 | Brian Bellows | 34.8
157 | Kevin Stevens | 34.8
158 | Bill Goldsworthy | 34.8
159 | Charlie Simmer | 34.8
160 | Daniel Sedin | 34.5
161 | Simon Gagne | 34.4
162 | Ron Ellis | 34.4
163 | Pierre Larouche | 34.4
164 | Gary Roberts | 34.3
165 | Clint Smith | 34.3
166 | Alex Kovalev | 34.2
167 | Dennis Hull | 34.2
168 | Baldy Northcott | 34.2
169 | Johnny Gottselig | 34.2
170 | Larry Aurie | 34.2
171 | Dick Duff | 34.1
172 | Elmer Lach | 34
173 | Ed Litzenberger | 33.9
174 | Grant Warwick | 33.9
175 | James Neal | 33.8
176 | Andy Hebenton | 33.8
177 | Olli Jokinen | 33.7
178 | Herbie Lewis | 33.6
179 | Danny Grant | 33.5
180 | John MacLean | 33.5
181 | Denis Savard | 33.3
182 | Bob Nevin | 33.3
183 | Jim Pappin | 33.2
184 | Jason Spezza | 33.2
185 | Claude Provost | 33
186 | Pavol Demitra | 33
187 | Dave Taylor | 33
188 | Bobby Rousseau | 33
189 | Hooley Smith | 32.9
190 | Rick Tocchet | 32.8
191 | Geoff Sanderson | 32.8
192 | Patrick Sharp | 32.7
193 | Dennis Maruk | 32.7
194 | Alex Shibicky | 32.6
195 | Mike Bullard | 32.6
196 | Jamie Benn | 32.6
197 | Ralph Backstrom | 32.5
198 | Butch Keeling | 32.5
199 | Ryan Smyth | 32.4
200 | Brian Propp | 32.3
201 | Johnny Peirson | 32.2
202 | Alexander Semin | 32.2
203 | Adam Graves | 32.2
204 | Mickey Redmond | 32.1
205 | John Sorrell | 32.1
206 | Jimmy Ward | 32
207 | Bob Pulford | 32
208 | Gilles Tremblay | 31.9
209 | Peter McNab | 31.9
210 | Don Marshall | 31.9
211 | Tomas Sandstrom | 31.8
212 | Henrik Zetterberg | 31.8
213 | Paul MacLean | 31.7
214 | Greg Adams | 31.7
215 | Tony Tanti | 31.6
216 | Pete Mahovlich | 31.6
217 | Steve Thomas | 31.6
218 | Buzz Boll | 31.5
219 | Frank Boucher | 31.5
220 | Red Hamill | 31.5
221 | Mud Bruneteau | 31.5
222 | Jimmy Carson | 31.4
223 | Vic Stasiuk | 31.4
224 | Vic Hadfield | 31.3
225 | Rick Kehoe | 31.3
226 | Bobby Ryan | 31.3
227 | Carl Liscombe | 31
228 | Vincent Damphousse | 31
229 | Pavel Datsyuk | 30.9
230 | Brian Sutter | 30.8
231 | Anze Kopitar | 30.8
232 | Ace Bailey | 30.8
233 | Paul Henderson | 30.8
234 | John McKenzie | 30.8
235 | Claude Lemieux | 30.7
236 | Eric Daze | 30.7
237 | Bobby Clarke | 30.7
238 | Bill Thoms | 30.6
239 | Petr Sykora | 30.6
240 | Petr Nedved | 30.6
241 | Blaine Stoughton | 30.5
242 | Wendel Clark | 30.5
243 | Loui Eriksson | 30.5
244 | Ray Getliffe | 30.5
245 | Rod Brind'Amour | 30.5
246 | Eddie Wiseman | 30.4
247 | Johnny Gagnon | 30.4
248 | Joe Carveth | 30.4
249 | Michael Ryder | 30.3
250 | Dave Gagner | 30.3

Ovechkin is in 5th place under both time frames (ten years or seven years).

Charlie Conacher, whose ranking is based almost entirely on his best five seasons, moves to just outside the top ten.

Stamkos climbs to 17th place.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

VxS UPDATED THROUGH 2016 - SEVEN BEST SEASONS OF CAREER - POINTS

Ranks|Player|Points
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 155.6
2 | Phil Esposito | 130.4
3 | Gordie Howe | 125.5
4 | Mario Lemieux | 119.8
5 | Bobby Orr | 114.8
6 | Jaromir Jagr | 114.2
7 | Bobby Hull | 108.3
8 | Stan Mikita | 107.8
9 | Jean Beliveau | 105.7
10 | Guy Lafleur | 104.5
11 | Ted Lindsay | 104.4
12 | Marcel Dionne | 103.3
13 | Maurice Richard | 102.4
14 | Howie Morenz | 102.2
15 | Sidney Crosby | 101.8
16 | Andy Bathgate | 101.1
17 | Alex Ovechkin | 98.4
18 | Joe Sakic | 97.7
19 | Bill Cowley | 97
20 | Charlie Conacher | 96.2
21 | Bill Cook | 96
22 | Joe Thornton | 95.6
23 | Frank Boucher | 95.1
24 | Mike Bossy | 94.8
25 | Bryan Trottier | 93.7
26 | Steve Yzerman | 93.2
27 | Teemu Selanne | 92.7
28 | Martin St. Louis | 92.4
29 | Syl Apps Sr | 92.4
30 | Sweeney Schriner | 91.3
31 | Bobby Clarke | 90.4
32 | Max Bentley | 90.4
33 | Peter Forsberg | 90.3
34 | Nels Stewart | 90.3
35 | Adam Oates | 90
36 | Bernie Geoffrion | 89.9
37 | Mark Messier | 89.6
38 | Jean Ratelle | 89.6
39 | Marty Barry | 89.6
40 | Norm Ullman | 89.5
41 | Busher Jackson | 89.5
42 | Evgeni Malkin | 89.2
43 | John Bucyk | 88.7
44 | Peter Stastny | 88.4
45 | Mark Recchi | 88.4
46 | Jari Kurri | 88.1
47 | Paul Coffey | 88.1
48 | Brett Hull | 88
49 | Frank Mahovlich | 87.8
50 | Ron Francis | 87.4
51 | Sid Abel | 87.3
52 | Milt Schmidt | 86.9
53 | Jarome Iginla | 86.7
54 | Gordie Drillon | 86.7
55 | Doug Bentley | 86.6
56 | Toe Blake | 86.3
57 | Elmer Lach | 86.1
58 | Dale Hawerchuk | 86
59 | Gilbert Perreault | 85.7
60 | Darryl Sittler | 85.7
61 | Denis Savard | 85.5
62 | Dickie Moore | 85.4
63 | Roy Conacher | 85.2
64 | Henri Richard | 85.2
65 | Pavel Bure | 85.2
66 | Eric Lindros | 85
67 | Paul Kariya | 84.9
68 | Alex Delvecchio | 84.8
69 | Patrick Kane | 84.5
70 | Henrik Sedin | 84.5
71 | Luc Robitaille | 84.2
72 | Ilya Kovalchuk | 83.9
73 | Syd Howe | 83.9
74 | Nicklas Backstrom | 83.2
75 | Ken Hodge | 83.2
76 | Rod Gilbert | 83.1
77 | Steven Stamkos | 83
78 | Markus Naslund | 82.9
79 | Aurel Joliat | 82.6
80 | Paul Thompson | 82.6
81 | Pavel Datsyuk | 82.5
82 | Marian Hossa | 82.4
83 | Daniel Alfredsson | 82.3
84 | Ryan Getzlaf | 82.1
85 | Pierre Turgeon | 82.1
86 | Mats Sundin | 82.1
87 | Doug Gilmour | 82
88 | Theoren Fleury | 82
89 | John LeClair | 81.7
90 | Mike Modano | 81.5
91 | Jeremy Roenick | 81.2
92 | Dany Heatley | 81
93 | Bryan Hextall | 80.9
94 | Sergei Fedorov | 80.8
95 | Bernie Nicholls | 80.6
96 | Ziggy Palffy | 80.1
97 | Daniel Sedin | 79.9
98 | Claude Giroux | 79.9
99 | Lynn Patrick | 79.4
100 | Michel Goulet | 79.3
101 | Jason Spezza | 79.1
102 | Keith Tkachuk | 79
103 | Brendan Shanahan | 79
104 | Cooney Weiland | 78.9
105 | Patrik Elias | 78.9
106 | Eric Staal | 78.8
107 | Ted Kennedy | 78.8
108 | Pat LaFontaine | 78.5
109 | Doug Weight | 78.3
110 | Cecil Dillon | 78.1
111 | Henrik Zetterberg | 78
112 | Brad Richards | 78
113 | Hooley Smith | 78
114 | Jacques Lemaire | 77.9
115 | Alexander Mogilny | 77.7
116 | Bernie Federko | 77.6
117 | Alexei Yashin | 77.1
118 | Yvan Cournoyer | 77.1
119 | Vincent Lecavalier | 76.9
120 | Anze Kopitar | 76.9
121 | John Tavares | 76.8
122 | Phil Watson | 76.7
123 | Bun Cook | 76.3
124 | Bert Olmstead | 75.9
125 | Bobby Rousseau | 75.5
126 | Raymond Bourque | 75.5
127 | Red Kelly | 75.4
128 | Alex Kovalev | 75.3
129 | Bill Mosienko | 75.2
130 | Phil Goyette | 75.2
131 | Clint Smith | 75.1
132 | Corey Perry | 75
133 | Herbie Lewis | 75
134 | Denis Potvin | 74.9
135 | Phil Kessel | 74.9
136 | Johnny Gottselig | 74.8
137 | Joe Primeau | 74.8
138 | Bobby Bauer | 74.6
139 | Pavol Demitra | 74.5
140 | Lorne Carr | 74.4
141 | Dave Keon | 74.3
142 | Lanny McDonald | 74.1
143 | Rick Middleton | 74.1
144 | Mike Ribeiro | 74.1
145 | Vincent Damphousse | 74
146 | Pete Mahovlich | 73.8
147 | Dit Clapper | 73.7
148 | Brian Leetch | 73.7
149 | Alex Tanguay | 73.4
150 | Marc Savard | 73.3
151 | Don McKenney | 73.3
152 | Rick MacLeish | 73.3
153 | Patrick Marleau | 73.2
154 | Milan Hejduk | 73.1
155 | Rick Martin | 73.1
156 | Tony Amonte | 73
157 | Ray Whitney | 72.9
158 | Jamie Benn | 72.7
159 | Bill Thoms | 72.7
160 | Woody Dumart | 72.7
161 | Rod Brind'Amour | 72.6
162 | Jonathan Toews | 72.3
163 | Neil Colville | 72.1
164 | Glenn Anderson | 72
165 | Peter Bondra | 72
166 | Steve Larmer | 71.9
167 | Eddie Wiseman | 71.8
168 | Joe Mullen | 71.6
169 | Larry Aurie | 71.6
170 | Kent Nilsson | 71.3
171 | Dennis Maruk | 71.3
172 | Joe Pavelski | 71.1
173 | Rene Robert | 71
174 | Zach Parise | 70.9
175 | Tod Sloan | 70.9
176 | Steve Shutt | 70.6
177 | Pit Martin | 70.6
178 | Al MacInnis | 70.5
179 | Johnny Gagnon | 70.4
180 | Joe Nieuwendyk | 70.3
181 | Dave Taylor | 70.2
182 | Garry Unger | 70.1
183 | Bill Barber | 70
184 | Marian Gaborik | 69.9
185 | Dino Ciccarelli | 69.8
186 | Kenny Wharram | 69.8
187 | Gaye Stewart | 69.8
188 | Ebbie Goodfellow | 69.6
189 | Dave Andreychuk | 69.5
190 | Nicklas Lidstrom | 69.4
191 | Rick Nash | 69.2
192 | Syl Apps | 69.1
193 | Bobby Smith | 68.9
194 | Mike Gartner | 68.8
195 | Thomas Vanek | 68.7
196 | Baldy Northcott | 68.6
197 | Todd Bertuzzi | 68.5
198 | Jimmy Ward | 68.5
199 | Miroslav Satan | 68.4
200 | Dennis Hull | 68.3
201 | Sid Smith | 68.2
202 | Olli Jokinen | 68.2
203 | Wayne Cashman | 67.8
204 | Fred Stanfield | 67.8
205 | Robert Lang | 67.8
206 | Butch Goring | 67.8
207 | Paul Ronty | 67.8
208 | Walt Tkaczuk | 67.8
209 | Scott Gomez | 67.6
210 | Steve Sullivan | 67.6
211 | Red Berenson | 67.5
212 | Ed Litzenberger | 67.5
213 | Martin Straka | 67.4
214 | Craig Janney | 67.4
215 | Brian Propp | 67.2
216 | Herb Cain | 67.1
217 | Camille Henry | 67
218 | Dean Prentice | 67
219 | Kevin Stevens | 67
220 | Pierre Larouche | 66.6
221 | Owen Nolan | 66.6
222 | Ace Bailey | 66.6
223 | Patrice Bergeron | 66.5
224 | Claude Provost | 66.4
225 | Patrick Sharp | 66.2
226 | Peter McNab | 66.1
227 | Shane Doan | 66.1
228 | Jason Pominville | 66
229 | Blake Wheeler | 65.9
230 | Jason Allison | 65.9
231 | Buddy O'Connor | 65.9
232 | Petr Nedved | 65.9
233 | Alex Zhamnov | 65.7
234 | Tom Lysiak | 65.7
235 | Glen Murray | 65.5
236 | Billy Taylor | 65.5
237 | Wilf Paiement | 65.3
238 | Jean Pronovost | 65.3
239 | Vic Hadfield | 65.2
240 | Charlie Simmer | 65.2
241 | Art Chapman | 65.2
242 | Jeff Carter | 65.2
243 | Brian Bellows | 65.1
244 | Phil Housley | 65.1
245 | John McKenzie | 65
246 | Petr Sykora | 64.8
247 | Murray Oliver | 64.7
248 | Kirk Muller | 64.7
249 | Barry Pederson | 64.7
250 | Neal Broten | 64.5

 

[MXD]

That may be because I'm not math-oriented at all, but why do the goals numbers are so low? Less "points" awared to the benchmark?

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Correct, points are benchmarked to 100 per year, and goals are benchmarked to 50.

I haven't done an analysis of assists. It's easy for me to run the numbers, but time-consuming to calculate all of the yearly benchmarks.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Here's my attempt to calculate the yearly benchmarks for assists. A second set of eyes looking this over would definitely be appreciated:

Year | Benchmark | Approach | Player | Notes
1927 | 11.875 | Average top eight | Between Frederickson/Bailey and Clancy |
1928 | 14 | 2nd place | Cook |
1929 | 12 | Bathgate rule | Lowrey |
1930 | 26.875 | Average top eight | Between Cook/Weiland and Clancy |
1931 | 23 | 3rd place | Goodfellow/Morenz |
1932 | 25 | 3rd place | Jackson/Morenz |
1933 | 27 | 2nd place | Shore |
1934 | 26 | Bathgate rule | Dillon |
1935 | 30.5 | Average top four | Between Boucher and Aurie |
1936 | 26 | 2nd place | Schriner |
1937 | 27 | 2nd place | Barry |
1938 | 27 | 2nd place | Chapman |
1939 | 33 | 2nd place | Haynes |
1940 | 24.5 | Average top eight | Between Bauer and Howe |
1941 | 28 | 2nd place | Colville |
1942 | 32 | 2nd place | Hextall |
1943 | 44 | 2nd place | Bentley | The first year where the WWII talent depletion started impacting the NHL. I don’t think a subjective adjustment is necessary here - Max Bentley is a reasonable runner-up and the playmaking race is grouped tightly together.
1944 | 48 | 2nd place | Lach | During this year, Clinth Smith lead the league in assists. I don't think a subjective adjustment is needed as Lach, one of the top playmakers of his era, finished a close second.
1945 | 40 | 2nd place | Cowley | Another war year, but once again no subjective adjustment is needed. Cowley, one of the top playmakers of all-time, was runner-up to Lach.
1946 | 30 | 2nd place | Mosienko/Bentley | The league was recovering from WWII but I don't think any subjective adjustments are needed. The runners up were Mosienko and Max Bentley. The former wasn't a great playmaker, but the youngest Bentley brother was (he placed as high as 3rd in assists outside of the war years). No changes needed.
1947 | 35 | 3rd place | Schmidt |
1948 | 36 | 2nd place | O'Connor |
1949 | 29 | 3rd place | Ronty |
1950 | 36 | 2nd place | Ronty |
1951 | 43 | 2nd place (tied for 1st) | Howe/Kennedy |
1952 | 42 | 2nd place | Raleigh |
1953 | 38 | Subjective adjustment | Ronty | Red Wings finished 1-2-3-5 in assists. Assume 4th place Ronty is the benchmark.
1954 | 37 | 2nd place | Olmstead |
1955 | 43 | 2nd place | Harvey |
1956 | 47 | 2nd place | Bathgate |
1957 | 51 | 2nd place | Beliveau |
1958 | 48 | 2nd place | Bathgate/Moore |
1959 | 48 | 2nd place | Bathgate |
1960 | 48 | 2nd place | Bathgate |
1961 | 50 | 2nd place | Kelly |
1962 | 48.1666666 | Average of top six | Between Mikita and Howe |
1963 | 49 | 2nd place | Beliveau |
1964 | 50 | 2nd place | Mikita/Beliveau |
1965 | 47 | 2nd place | Howe |
1966 | 48 | 2nd place (tied for 1st) | Mikita/Rousseau/Beliveau |
1967 | 49 | 2nd place | Goyette |
1968 | 48 | 2nd place | Delvecchio/Gilbert |
1969 | 59 | 3rd place | Howe |
1970 | 52 | Adjustment for Orr's Bruins | Williams | Orr and Esposito finish 1-2 in assists on the powerhouse Bruins. Subjectively assume that 3rd place Williams is the benchmark.
1971 | 65 | Adjustment for Orr's Bruins | Bucyk | The year that breaks the system! The Bruins have sole possession of the top five spots. I've arbitrarily assumed 3rd place Bucyk (a Bruin, obviously) is the benchmark. Is this too harsh a standard for everyone else?
1972 | 63 | Adjustment for Orr's Bruins | Ratelle | Bruins finish 1-2-4 in assists. Subjectively assume 3rd place Ratelle is the benchmark.
1973 | 67 | Adjustment for Orr's Bruins | Clarke | Esposito and Orr finish 1-2 in assists on the powerhouse Bruins. Subjectively assume that 3rd place Clarke is the benchmark.
1974 | 62 | 3rd place | Hextall |
1975 | 74 | Bathgate rule | Dionne |
1976 | 71 | 2nd place | Mahovlich |
1977 | 69 | 2nd place | Dionne |
1978 | 72 | 2nd place | Sittler/Lafleur |
1979 | 77 | 2nd place | Lafleur |
1980 | 72.33333333 | Average of top six | Between Lafleur and Perreault |
1981 | 82 | 2nd place | Nilsson |
1982 | 93 | 2nd place | Stastny |
1983 | 79.666666 | Average of 1st through 6th | Between Stastny and Coffey |
1984 | 77 | 3rd place | Pederson |
1985 | 72 | 2nd place | Bourque |
1986 | 85 | Average of 2nd through 5th | Between Coffey and Stastny | A rule-breaking year from Gretzky! If I average the top six, as the methodology suggests, we'd get a benchmark of 95.3 assists, which is higher than 2nd place. Gretzky recorded so many assists he singlehandedly raises the average to an unrealistically high level. Instead I propose we average 2nd through 5th place.
1987 | 72 | 2nd place | Bourque |
1988 | 85.83333 | Average of top six | Between Savard and Hawerchuk |
1989 | 90 | 3rd place | Yzerman |
1990 | 84 | 2nd place | Messier |
1991 | 75 | 3rd place | MacInnis |
1992 | 87 | 2nd place | Lemieux |
1993 | 95 | 2nd place | Gilmour/Lafontaine |
1994 | 84 | 2nd place | Gilmour |
1995 | 44 | 2nd place | Coffey |
1996 | 86 | Subjective adjustment | Forsberg | None of Sturm's rules apply here but I think using 92 assists as the benchmark is too high. Three teammates finished 1-2-3 in assists. I arbitrarily treated Forsberg (who finished 4th) as the benchmark this season.
1997 | 63 | 3rd place | Francis/Yzerman |
1998 | 67 | 2nd place (tied for 1st) | Gretzky/Jagr |
1999 | 67 | 2nd place | Forsberg |
2000 | 56 | 2nd place | Oates |
2001 | 69 | 2nd place (tied for 1st) | Jagr/Oates |
2002 | 55 | 2nd place | Allison |
2003 | 65 | 2nd place | Thornton |
2004 | 56 | 2nd place (tied for 1st) | St. Louis/Gomez |
2006 | 71 | 2nd place | Spezza |
2007 | 74 | 3rd place | Savard |
2008 | 66 | 2nd place | Datsyuk |
2009 | 70 | 2nd place | Crosby |
2010 | 69 | 2nd place | Thornton |
2011 | 68 | 2nd place | St. Louis |
2012 | 65 | 2nd place | Giroux |
2013 | 41 | 2nd place | Crosby |
2014 | 65 | 2nd place | Thornton |
2015 | 59 | 2nd place | Voracek |
2016 | 63 | 2nd place | Thornton |
2017 | 63 | 2nd place | Backstrom |

 

[trentmccleary]

Question:
Alfredsson scored 794 points in 750 games in his 10 best years... 9 of which between 2001-2010.
Hossa scored 770 points in 793 games in his 10 best seasons... 8 of which between 2001-2010.

How can the calculation put Hossa ahead of Alfredsson in 3/7/10 year VSX's when their peaks occurred at the same time and Hossa rarely scored more points in real life?

I'm also assuming that there will be similar discrepancies among other players from the same era's.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Here's my latest post - http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2215905

It shows them as virtually even. Over their best ten years, Hossa is ahead 78.1-77.4, and over their best seven years, Hossa is ahead 82.4-82.3. Nobody (I hope) is using this system to pretend that tiny differences are important, so I'm treating them as virtually even in both cases.

So really your question is - why are they rated as virtually even, when Alfredsson outscored Hossa in real life?

It's a result of the timing of their big seasons. Alfredsson's top three seasons (the only times he scored more than 80 points) occurred in the three years immediately after the lockout. Since there were more powerplays and the top forwards were putting up better numbers, all of the seasons immediately after the lockout get discounted somewhat (no different than, say, a season from the 1980s).

In other words - the system reads Alfredsson's best seasons as somewhat inflated (compared to Hossa) because a greater percentage of his offense occurred right after the lockout, when scoring was (somewhat) inflated.