Value of: PLD's trade value this summer with 1 RFA year left?

[jokesondee]

I never said he's nearly as good.

I said he's already good and he'll become even better. Because he just turned 22.

Furthermore you seems to overlook the contrat situation, since money is so important in a post COVID cap strapped NHL.

It's not how good a player is, it's how much is he efficient money wise.

And on that point, Dach is hard to beat, nonetheless his sky high potential that isn't taped yet.

Add to this PLD situation in Winnipeg, which want it or not cannot be overlooked neither, at the end of the day you guys can dream about obtaining a Dach+ kinda return for Dubois, but personally I think it will be that, just a dream...

Ummm correct me if im wrong but "almost equivalent NHL player" sounds very much like nearly as good. Ill agree Dach's contract does add some appeal to him, but he's not anywhere near PLD's current value/level and may never be. No one knows the future, youve gotta pay for the now. His jackass agent opening his mouth has hurt PLD's return no doubt. Im certain Chevy will get the best package available, regardless of where the player wants to play.

 

[StreetHawk]

Ummm correct me if im wrong but "almost equivalent NHL player" sounds very much like nearly as good. Ill agree Dach's contract does add some appeal to him, but he's not anywhere near PLD's current value/level and may never be. No one knows the future, youve gotta pay for the now. His jackass agent opening his mouth has hurt PLD's return no doubt. Im certain Chevy will get the best package available, regardless of where the player wants to play.

Are teams trading for 1 year or multi years of PLD’s service. He’s rfa so he can be moved anywhere. Whether he extend for term with that trading partner is going to dictate value that you get back.

 

[samsagat]

Ummm correct me if im wrong but "almost equivalent NHL player" sounds very much like nearly as good. Ill agree Dach's contract does add some appeal to him, but he's not anywhere near PLD's current value/level and may never be. No one knows the future, youve gotta pay for the now. His jackass agent opening his mouth has hurt PLD's return no doubt. Im certain Chevy will get the best package available, regardless of where the player wants to play.

Ok sorry.

I ment almost equivalent "value wise", my bad.

And if you don't agree with that, then let's agree to disagree.

Cause in my book, value isn't just about pure stats. It's about a bunch of factors.

Dach was traded for a 13th pick+ early 3rd round pick coming from a 27 pts season at the last draft. He was a big question mark but still having that kind of value.

Now that the question marks are over, plus his advantageous contract, his value sky rocketed.

What it is?
I don't know but it's huge.

Now, PLD has question marks/uncertainties of his own, which affect his value.

We'll see, none of us are right or wrong untill all of this comes to a conclusion.

My way of seeing things is as good as yours.

BUT I would be very surprised if HuGo give Dach for PLD.

Pretty sure they'll pass if it's the asking price..

 

[Heldig]

first it seems clear that PLD wants to play for the habs. He wont sign until he is a ufa and can sign with the habs. As long as this is all true then a few things are set in stone.
1- any team offering a trade with Jets better know its a 1 year deal thats it for PLD.
2- Habs dont need him right now. They are NOT ready for prime time and wont be for at least 2 years
3- Habs wont have to PAY anybody for PLD he will be a FREE AGENT in 1.4 years. FREE FREE FREE.
4- After years and years of MTL not getting players to come to MTL due to, income taxes,cold weather, no cup in sight, no palm trees, wife dont want, kids dont want, cheaper state taxes on dam near everything, some states NO tax at all and lastly the pressure of playing your best every game in MTL of the media will roast you. In some US cities you can walk about and NOBODY KNOWS YOU.
for once in 20 years here is a guy thats WANTS to play in MTL, finally Habs have an advantage to get this players and now posters hate that. I remember when Lindros REFUSED to play for Quebec, NOBODY hated him for that so what is with the 2 standards? What goes around comes around and it seems its habs turn.

First, it may not be as clear as Habs fans like that Dubois wants to play in Montreal in 2024-25. He has stated he intends to go to UFA. It is reported he has stated he would like to play in Montreal. He has also stated his main desire is to play on a cup contender.

To points 1,2 and 3 that may all be true. Point 2 might actually be a negative for the Habs not a positive. If you still suck in 2 years he might not want to go there.

Besides, not acting now (this summer) could lead to other attractive options for Dubois. Maybe a lengthy playoff run this spring has him decide to stay with the Jets for the next 5 years. Maybe the Jets trade him at the draft to a perennial contender like Boston or Tampa Bay and he decides to sign long term there. Maybe he just gets miffed at Habs management for not wanting him now and decides to sign with someone that really wants him (and gives him a chance to win).

To point 4, I am a Jets fan so am fully aware of the disadvantages of getting players to want to come to your market.

And I am pretty sure there was a LOT of hatred directed towards Lindros for refusing to play in Quebec.

 

[Snowman]

My argument is that trade deadline value is inflated because acquiring teams are in a strong position and are willing to overpay to try and take advantage of the stars lining up for them.

This isn't representative of trade value over the summer.

Nor is it representative of value for a player likely going somewhere for only one season.

Okay, so you're banking on two very unlikely things. One, that a player's value will drop... just because, with nothing to show that has ever happened. Even though there will be far more demand for PLD's services in the summer which almost always results in a higher price and as opposed to at the TDL with only a team or two bidding. Two, that the Jets will only trade him to a team where he isn't willing to extend.

Unlikely, but at least I can see where you're going. I think most here would prefer to discuss things that are likely to happen and have actually happened in the past.

I guess if any of those unlikely possibilities happen we could discuss it then, but right now I think most would prefer you discuss the trade in relation to actual historical comparables.

It's too hard to assign values to pieces in situations that haven't happened before and aren't likely to happen now.

 

[Hunter368]

I think a deal would need to be designed around Anderson or Dvorak.

They're your players so I get you value them, but personally I don't see much value there at least from my POV. Both guys are really bottom six guys, which don't carry much value to me. Not slagging on them, but I just don't see much value there. I would never suggest we could build a trade around Lowry for Suzuki.......not perfect example I get but your understand I'm sure

 

[Hunter368]

So if you can’t secure anyone to help now then you should ride out PLD and give it your best shot. A futures package does what for them? Can they flip that for a roster player who wouldn’t list winnipeg on their ntc?

As I stated before its depend what happens with Mark & Helle contract this summer, either extend them or ride PLD, Mark & Helle into UFA and let them all walk for free in 1.5 years or trade all three this summer and rebuild or some combo of one of the options.

I'm sure Chevy knows already if PLD, Mark and Helle, which ones are willing to resign and under what situations. Example, I highly doubt Mark & Helle have any interest in a full rebuild. But if Mark & Helle will resign if the Jets are competitive then ok.

Really depends on a number of factors what the Jets will want for a return either heavy futures or heavy roster player(s) or combo or just let all walk for free in 1.5 years. The Habs vets are all bottom six forwards or bottom pairing D, they really aren't help the Jets in significant way. Could the Jets use futures from the Habs to convert them into roster players? Likely but requires alot of work and risk.

 

[Hunter368]

Yep, and some Jets fans want an almost equivalent NHL player, a middle of the 1st round pick and a good prospect...

Fans are fans...

Literally no one is expecting that, despite some Habs fans keep saying it. What the Jets fans don't want is depth players playing on the 3rd or 4th line and a B prospect.

As I've stated multi times: start with a offer that would be PLD value at the TDL next year and add to that depending how many teams would be bidding on his services and offering him long term deals driving up his cap hit. Another perfectly valid option is offer nothing and wait for 1.5 years and hope none of the other teams make him & the Jets an offer that meets that value.

 

[MXD]

They're your players so I get you value them, but personally I don't see much value there at least from my POV. Both guys are really bottom six guys, which don't carry much value to me. Not slagging on them, but I just don't see much value there. I would never suggest we could build a trade around Lowry for Suzuki.......not perfect example I get but your understand I'm sure

They'd have to be in the deal for cap reasons (without being dumps) but they wouldn't be the "value" in the trade. They'd be the collaterals, so to speak. As opposed to Hoffman or Gallagher -- those have negative value.

 

[Snowman]

They'd have to be in the deal for cap reasons (without being dumps) but they wouldn't be the "value" in the trade. They'd be the collaterals, so to speak. As opposed to Hoffman or Gallagher -- those have negative value.

The "cap reasons" are Montreal's problem not Winnipeg's. Those players hold no value to the Jets and theJets don't have the cap space to waste on them. You'd need to move them elsewhere.

The Jets would already be giving up a good young player at a discount, they aren't going to make that worse by taking back bad cap.

 

[Hunter368]

They'd have to be in the deal for cap reasons (without being dumps) but they wouldn't be the "value" in the trade. They'd be the collaterals, so to speak. As opposed to Hoffman or Gallagher -- those have negative value.

Fair enough, while I haven't read all the posts in this thread the ones I've seen are Habs fans presenting Dvorak or Andersen as the big piece in any offer when most Jets fans see them as dead cap space in our lineup. Not saying they are negative value or cap dumps, but Dvorak is a lateral move at best for Lowry and Jets aren't bumping him down to the 4th line for any lateral player so Dvorak would be the 4C or a 3rd line winger. Josh can't beat out any of the top 6 wingers the Jets have now so he would also be a 3rd line winger. So you can see why Jets fans look at those guys as dead cap space & undesirable, they would be way overpaid for their role on the Jets team and what they bring hurting the Jets lineup and ability to compete.

So I understand your point, but understand ours we have no place for either of those guys where they would add any value so place no value on them in any trade with us. Trade them else where, otherwise they add no value to the Jets and just in way make the Jets less competitive by having overpaid 3rd liners (no offense meant).

 

[MXD]

The "cap reasons" are Montreal's problem not Winnipeg's. Those players hold no value to the Jets and theJets don't have the cap space to waste on them. You'd need to move them elsewhere.

The Jets would already be giving up a good young player at a discount, they aren't going to make that worse by taking back bad cap.

Then no trade to be made. Simple as that.

 

[Snowman]

Then no trade to be made. Simple as that.

Works for Winnipeg.

 

[Buffdog]

Crazy how Habs fans have taken PLD's agent's somewhat non-commital comments when he was basically ambushed and cornered on a MTL radio show as "he's gonna sign here in two years anyway"

 

[Thechozen1]

I've literally read thousands of posts by Jets fans on the main and their board, I've yet to see a single one (or at least extremely few) want or expect "full" value for PLD in a trade (full value would be massive). Where the disconnect is between fans bases is some Habs fans offer nearly nothing vs what Jets fans expect will be multi teams showing interest in PLD and PLD will be offered multi very big offers by teams other then the Habs which will then create competition for his services..........So Habs fans often think they are the only game in town for PLD trade when Jets fans think there will be multi teams offering PLD deals. If there is even two teams (Habs plus one more team) that PLD is interested in suddenly some of those terrible Habs offers we see will not be even close to getting the job done, albeit PLD still will not be traded at full value, albeit full value would be a massive return.

As a base line IMO both groups should use the TDL value of PLD or similar value b/c many teams would offer that as a rental on PLD especially if Jets retain........then the offer goes up based on how many other teams offer PLD long term deals that he's interested in (which none of us will know how many there will be ). PLD would look good playing in a warm tax free team down south.

Still think if NYR disappoint in these playoffs, they can be a legitimate player for Dubois’ services and they have plenty of assets to make a deal. Not to mention, a history making deals with Chevy.

 

[pth2]

Crazy how Habs fans have taken PLD's agent's somewhat non-commital comments when he was basically ambushed and cornered on a MTL radio show as "he's gonna sign here in two years anyway"

Keep in mind, PLD isn't a guy Montreal would be targeting, otherwise, with Suzuki and Dach as top 2 centers, there are plenty of other holes to be filled. Now, if PLD really wants to be here, there is always a way to add a quality player in a lineup... but that doesn't mean paying a premium that caters to Winnipeg's whims.

 

[Buffdog]

Keep in mind, PLD isn't a guy Montreal would be targeting, otherwise, with Suzuki and Dach as top 2 centers, there are plenty of other holes to be filled. Now, if PLD really wants to be here, there is always a way to add a quality player in a lineup... but that doesn't mean paying a premium that caters to Winnipeg's whims.

There is zero confirmed indication that it's a "Montreal or nothing" mindset from PLD

 

[Hunter368]

Still think if NYR disappoint in these playoffs, they can be a legitimate player for Dubois’ services and they have plenty of assets to make a deal. Not to mention, a history making deals with Chevy.

There is no doubt there will be 4-6 teams this summer who are going to be very interested in PLD and willing to make him a very rich man on a long term deal and likely some of those teams will be based in warm states, big markets and tax free. This summer if the Jets put PLD up as trade bait, PLD is going to have multi big deal offers to look at and some good teams to pick from.

 

[Heldig]

Keep in mind, PLD isn't a guy Montreal would be targeting, otherwise, with Suzuki and Dach as top 2 centers, there are plenty of other holes to be filled. Now, if PLD really wants to be here, there is always a way to add a quality player in a lineup... but that doesn't mean paying a premium that caters to Winnipeg's whims.

Where would you rank Dubois compared to Suzuki and Dach?

 

[pth2]

Where would you rank Dubois compared to Suzuki and Dach?

Similar to Suzuki overall, PLD probably has better upside but also more character issues.

Dach is clearly less proven, but is signed to a cheap deal and is trending very well, so the increase in value isn't that huge. And to me, Dach is a better fit age-wise considering most of the young core is from the '19 to '22 drafts. Dach might never be as good as Dubois, but his value to Montreal isn't far behind.

 

[Thechozen1]

He would be their best player and francophone face of the franchise for the next decade. No question. Thats why im always surprised when Habs fans balk at trading Dach for him. Dach is a nice player but nowhere near PLD level.

Exactly! Personally I’d find a return of Dach and the Florida 1st to be mildly underwhelming. Not terrible, just underwhelming.

Dach is okay but there no indication he’ll ever be more than a 40-50 point player. You move those types every day when you can land and lock up a player of Dubois’ caliber.

It’s like some believe Dach to have some untapped Getzlaf lite potential. Please!!!

 

[pth2]

There is no doubt there will be 4-6 teams this summer who are going to be very interested in PLD and willing to make him a very rich man on a long term deal and likely some of those teams will be based in warm states, big markets and tax free. This summer if the Jets put PLD up as trade bait, PLD is going to have multi big deal offers to look at and some good teams to pick from.

Good for him. The kind of massive overpayment required to apparently get him isn't something logical for Montreal to do at this point in their rebuild.
Like I said elsewhere, Habs can make a decent offer so Winnipeg can accept letting him go in the summer of '23 rather than '24 if he's really only going to sign in Montreal anyways, but if he'll be going for the biggest bucks from a team willing to throw assets Winnipeg's way, I don't expect my team to get into a bidding war. Good luck to him.

Exactly! Personally I’d find a return of Dach and the Florida 1st to be mildly underwhelming. Not terrible, just underwhelming.

Your underwhelming offer is more than I'd give up.

 

[Hunter368]

Good for him. The kind of massive overpayment required to apparently get him isn't something logical for Montreal to do at this point in their rebuild.
Like I said elsewhere, Habs can make a decent offer so Winnipeg can accept letting him go in the summer of '23 rather than '24 if he's really only going to sign in Montreal anyways, but if he'll be going for the biggest bucks from a team willing to throw assets Winnipeg's way, I don't expect my team to get into a bidding war. Good luck to him.


Your underwhelming offer is more than I'd give up.

This thread isn't about a trade to the Habs, its about PLD value if traded this summer. Habs fans are coming to this general thread making offers Jets fans and other teams fans are responding those offers with their opinions.

Decent offer sounds underwhelming even how you state it, maybe its just your choice of words. I would be looking for a "fair or competitive offer" and I think that's all any Jets fans expect. What is a fair or competitive offer is a good question and no one can answer that b/c we don't know how many offers the Jets get for him.......but you know beyond a shadow of a doubt there will be multi offers from some aggressive GM's looking at PLD to be a major piece of their team. IMO the baseline to work form would be PLD's value at next years TDL and add from there if traded during the summer which adds some value and then the big driver of his value will be how many teams are bidding for him.........there will easily be 4-6 teams with good offers to Chevy. Some will be dependent on contract talks beforehand and some won't be (likely similar to Timo M situation right now, some teams want to talk contracts before meeting the Sharks demands).......obvouisly Chevy will grant access to PLD agent beforehand to help his value.

So what is fair or competitive offer? I've seen 2-3 interesting Habs offers, but the vast majority have been poor TBH. The most common offers have been Andersen or Dvorak (both are viewed as dead cap space on our team bc they fill no needs and are overpaid for 3rd line duty so they add virtually no value to any offer to the Jets) plus a C level or B level prospect, sometimes people have added a late 1st or 2nd pick. Do you think that's a competitive offer if there is multi teams making offers to the Jets for a guy playing like a big physical nearly PPG #1C this year who is 24 years old?

 

[pth2]

.... Andersen or Dvorak (both are viewed as dead cap space on our team bc they fill no needs and are overpaid for 3rd line duty so they add virtually no value to any offer to the Jets) ...

That's just being needlessly insulting.
Adios.

 

[Hunter368]

That's just being needlessly insulting.
Adios.

Who is either player replacing in the Jets top 6? No one, its not being insulting it being realistic.

Top 6:
KC - No
Ehlers - No
Wheeler - No
Mark - No
Cole P - No

Everyone can agree Dvorak or Andersen can't even get close to replacing any of the Jets top 5, no debate there.

PLD - If traded, who fills one of the top 6, assuming Cole P or Wheeler moves to center (Cole natural position is center, Jets no doubt grooming him to be top 6 center & Wheeler has played center multi occasions for periods of time when needed & done well). Winger to be added this summer could easily be better then either Dvorak or Andersen at less cap, heck Appleton could be played up which adds a nice boost defensively while adding offence. Dvorak isn't a top 6 center by any means, heck I would play Lowry before Dvorak on the 3rd line so Dvorak would have to be moved to the wing just to play in the top 9. Playing Andersen or Dvorak on the 3rd line would be a overpayment for 3rd liners and hurt the Jets overall from a cap ROI POV. Right now Jets have been heavily connected to Timo M trade, so the Jets are looking to add a significant piece to their top 6 (whether its Timo or someone else). This isn't including any potential returns the Jets get on PLD or FA signings or trades or any internal development by multi talented forward prospects.

3rd Line
Lowry - No
Appleton - Maybe, hard to judge this year bc he's been hurt
Barron - Yes
Jets could fit one of them on the 3rd line, but its a overpayment for a 3rd line player both are overpaid. Pushing it both could be played on the 3rd line, but its still bad usage of cap paying either guy their contracts so its not attractive. I haven't said either guy are cap dumps or bad players, they're ok players who are overpaid. On a deep forward group like the Jets, they would struggle to ever play top 6 barring injuries and are paid too much for 3rd line duty.