Value of: PLD's trade value this summer with 1 RFA year left?

[Habs Halifax]

The habs could definitely trade a 23 first. They already own two of those, and they might have more if Monahan/Edmundson trades returns a 1st.

It's possible the Habs add another 1st but I would not bank on it.

Right now, I have the Panthers in the 10-20 range and the Habs in the 5-12 range.

Debrincat was just traded for the 7th pick but that was this season and one more RFA season of control. Dubois on draft day is one RFA year left. 10-20 range pick might get it done.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Agree. His max value is right before the 2023 draft. Get that Florida or Habs pick (whichever is higher, from the Habs) and take a dump contract like Hoffman or Arima to juice up the return.

Problem for the Habs now. If you’re trading for assets like PLD, your rich farm system gets attention and it gets raided. Much harder for Habs to win trades now because you have much to horse trade with. GMs know this and they hold the line on their demands. Call it the curse of good drafting.

I would expect the Panthers pick to be 10-20 range in the end and not win the lottery if they are 10-16 range. So that would likely be at play.

Then the other angle what happens with Monahan/Dvorak from now till draft day. If the Habs sign Monahan, then I would expect Dvorak to be going the other way in the Dubois trade. Jets would need center depth and if they are rebuilding/retooling, Dvorak is a good min eater for those years. Otherwise, they would have to sign somebody and might not want to pay them more than Dvorak's term. So that fits more than what fans will say it does.

* Panthers pick (10-20 range)
* Dvorak (Monahan is not traded and extended before this deadline)
* Possible grade B prospect included... TBD.

Our farm system would not be raided. We would still own all our picks and the Flames 1st. Our prospect pool is deep. Might not have sure shot grade A's but it's loaded with B+ types that could surprise. If we bat 1/3, we will exit this in very good shape. At the very least, we won't have depth issues with this pool and those ELC will provide advantage in terms of freeing up future cap space to add improvements

Dubois is 1 year older than Suzuki. He fits.

Caufield / Suzuki / Dach
Slaf / PLD / ???
??? / Monahan / Anderson

* Prospects like Farrell, Beck, Mesar, Hutson, Mailloux, Heineman, Kidney, Roy, etc at forward. We have loads of prospects producing to above pt/game in their development. If 1/3 of them turn into anything good, watch out.

* Add future picks. Habs own all of our 1st as well as the Flames. Trading the Panthers 1st (10-20) range for a 24 year old who fits well with Suzuki? Sign me up. Suzuki, PLD, Monahan up the middle is very good.

 

[McJedi]

I would expect the Panthers pick to be 10-20 range in the end and not win the lottery if they are 10-16 range. So that would likely be at play.

Then the other angle what happens with Monahan/Dvorak from now till draft day. If the Habs sign Monahan, then I would expect Dvorak to be going the other way in the Dubois trade. Jets would need center depth and if they are rebuilding/retooling, Dvorak is a good min eater for those years. Otherwise, they would have to sign somebody and might not want to pay them more than Dvorak's term. So that fits more than what fans will say it does.

* Panthers pick (10-20 range)
* Dvorak (Monahan is not traded and extended before this deadline)
* Possible grade B prospect included... TBD.

Our farm system would not be raided. We would still own all our picks and the Flames 1st. Our prospect pool is deep. Might not have sure shot grade A's but it's loaded with B+ types that could surprise. If we bat 1/3, we will exit this in very good shape. At the very least, we won't have depth issues with this pool and those ELC will provide advantage in terms of freeing up future cap space to add improvements

Dubois is 1 year older than Suzuki. He fits.

Caufield / Suzuki / Dach
Slaf / PLD / ???
??? / Monahan / Anderson

* Prospects like Farrell, Beck, Mesar, Hutson, Mailloux, Heineman, Kidney, Roy, etc at forward. We have loads of prospects producing to above pt/game in their development. If 1/3 of them turn into anything good, watch out.

* Add future picks. Habs own all of our 1st as well as the Flames. Trading the Panthers 1st (10-20) range for a 24 year old who fits well with Suzuki? Sign me up. Suzuki, PLD, Monahan up the middle is very good.

Keep adding. Your farm system will be raided. You’ve got the pieces teams will demand.

Dvorak is filler. Peg won’t place much value on him

PLD for a base of Mesar + let’s say the 18th overall pick in 2023 + cap filler. Dvorak in your example is the cap filler but they may want someone else like Hoffman since his contract ends sooner.

 

[StewieP19]

If Montreal wants him at the draft it will cost 2023 1st round pick unprotected.
Dach cost a top 15 and doesn't have Dubois number
Dubois is on pace of 88 pts this year.
If Dubois sign with Habs after trade, Coaching staff will have Headache to manage center line to be sure that Suzuki and Dubois ice time and play time with quality players.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

He's coming home for free (cap space) , No need to give up any assets for him.

Anyways he *says* he wants to play in Montreal but personally i think he would just crumble under the pressure of being a hometown kid. Plus the kid has some diva in him. Red flags so i'd rather get him for free. Or not get him at all , not really a big deal. Jets would try to fleece us anyways and ask for the moon (rightfully so)

 

[KingBogo]

I think the Jets would move him at the draft or in the summer and they will know his intentions after the playoffs are done.

A full season vs rental at the deadline gets them a bigger return IMO. Rental price is likely a 20+ pick and prospect and trade on draft day might get the Jets a pick from 10-20 range and a prospect. Better % of hitting on someone in that range.



Dubois won't sign for 2-3 years. He's going to take the 7 or 8 year deal and max out his AAV as much as possible. He's earned that right and his next contract sets him and his family for life.

If he wanted to sign the 2-3 year deal, he could have done that last summer.

Why wouldn't he sign a 3 year deal the Jets? It would maximize is career earnings and his chance to win a cup. The Jets would probably pay him close to what he would get long term for a 3 year deal, at the end of which he would be 27 y/o UFA in the heart of his prime, most likely with a much deeper resume to command top dollar. And the cap should have risen significantly by then. In terms of winning the Jets are likely to be going all in with their current core with a Vezina quality goalie over the next couple years. If he then does want to go to the Habs, in 3 years they are probably just entering a competitive window.

 

[Mrfenn92]

No guarantee Winnepeg moves him this offseason either. He has one season remaining of team control, Scheifle, helle, wheeler, Dillon, Demelo. If they have a good run this year they might keep everyone together for one last year.

Also what actual report has surfaced he would sign with Montreal or actually wants to?

 

[Linds]

He would return a significant package. However, when you are trading the best player in his prime in the deal you will almost always lose

 

[Hunter368]

Personally IMO:

- PLD decision to sign or not sign with the Jets depends (at least partially) on the direction they go with the rest of their core who multi have expiring deals in the next 1-2 years. No one in their prime wants to sign long term with a team just entering a rebuild, if thats what the Jets do.

- PLD might also be interested in what the Jets do with Mark S, PLD plays 2C duty behind Mark now, will he be happy with that moving forward? Not sure, but Mark averages 3 mins more per game then PLD now. PLD might look to a team where he's the 1C and the way he's playing this year he could find teams like that or if Mark is traded and Jets extend PLD long term is another option.

- Lets assume PLD doesn't extend with the Jets long term for one of multi reasons possibly and he informs the Jets of this fact at the end of the season. Just playing along with the OP idea

- I highly suspect Chevy would trade him pre draft this summer for a 2023 1st rd pick, good young roster player and maybe pick depending on the value of the younger player/1st rd pick to the highest bidder. Of course the value of the 1st effects the value of the young roster player and same thing in reverse. Chevy gives teams the right to talk to PLD's agent to address any concerns about an extension which helps with more teams making offers.

- Trouba returned a top 4 D and 20th OA pick and TSN reported that wasn't the best offer Chevy received it was just the one he went with......not sure why possibly to help Trouba out (doubt that) or maybe to get the Jets 20th OA back from a previous trade not sure if he was thinking about a OS, maybe the other offer came in late. But IIRC TSN reported the Pens offered more for Trouba but Chevy accepted the Rangers offer. Either way Trouba was seen as a #3D or 2nd pairing RHD at the time with top pairing potential and he returned a top 4 RHD and 20th OA pick so I would assume PLD would be similar return, maybe a bit more PLD plays center and is playing at PPG this season.

All I know is if he keeps playing like a 1C PPG and only getting 2C TOI his value is only increasing.

IMO

 

[Adam da bomb]

Call me gullible but I do think he wants to play for the Habs... lets follow the timeline of events.

1) Habs shopping Subban before his NMC kicks in. Habs tried to get the 4th or 5th pick from the Oilers or Canucks but Blue Jackets ruin that plan by taking PLD 3rd ahead of Puljujarvi and Juolevi. I bet you Dubois thought he was close to being drafted by the Habs.

2) Asked for a trade out of Columbus. No doubt in my mind the Habs tried to trade for him and once again, Dubois likely pondered if he was going to be playing for the Habs. Jets offered Laine and Habs couldn't touch that offer.

3) First season for the Jets was very inspired hockey. Invisible in the playoffs against the Habs that year. Not the Dubois we have come to know.

4) Sucks it up and has a great 2nd season for the Jets. Then tells them he prefers to head to UFA but will honor his RFA years left. Also tells members around the Jets organization he would like to play for the Habs one day.

5) No doubt in my mind Gorton/Hughes talked to his agent when he was RFA last season. Jets and Habs likely talked trade but nothing developed. Dubois signs a 1 year deal vs a 2 year RFA deal.



It's not likely. You would not make that decision if you were him. His agent will advise against it. It's his time to cash in and you are thinking he won't? What happens if he gets injured in those 2-3 years?

Dubois is clearly going to sign with a team that has good direction and for 7 or 8 years. Gets to play for a team that is in the right direction and also gets to set his family up for life. I'd be shocked he don't choose this road.

Depends on how badly he wants a cup.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Depends on how badly he wants a cup.

IMO, I think he will choose a road where he gets paid and is on a team with good direction. He will have options and I highly doubt he signs for 2-3 years. Possible but unlikely

Why wouldn't he sign a 3 year deal the Jets? It would maximize is career earnings and his chance to win a cup. The Jets would probably pay him close to what he would get long term for a 3 year deal, at the end of which he would be 27 y/o UFA in the heart of his prime, most likely with a much deeper resume to command top dollar. And the cap should have risen significantly by then. In terms of winning the Jets are likely to be going all in with their current core with a Vezina quality goalie over the next couple years. If he then does want to go to the Habs, in 3 years they are probably just entering a competitive window.

I think he's going to sign a 7 or 8 year deal (sign/trade). I would not bet against that

 

[Habs Halifax]

Keep adding. Your farm system will be raided. You’ve got the pieces teams will demand.

Dvorak is filler. Peg won’t place much value on him

PLD for a base of Mesar + let’s say the 18th overall pick in 2023 + cap filler. Dvorak in your example is the cap filler but they may want someone else like Hoffman since his contract ends sooner.

No, it won't be raided. It won't be higher than Debrincat for the 7th pick. Debrincat had this season and one more RFA year on control. That was Dubois's value last summer. This summer is one full RFA season. That's his value.

If the Jets/Habs can't agree, we can talk to Dubois after July 1st and his agent will tell us his true intentions. If that don't play out, so be it. We are not going to go as deep as you think to acquire him when there is a fair chance we can sign him as a UFA for free.

Platform for the trade is sound. It measure up well to both Debrincat and Trouba trades.

* Panthers pick (10-20) range

* Cap contract like Dvorak. Jets won't complain too much about that cause if they trade PLD, they will need to find a center. Lets say they say no to Dvorak. Habs are OK with that cause we have the cap space. Then what? Jets have to sign another center. Do they make a play for Horvat? Up to them to decide. Dvorak is an option if they want it for a depth center min eater.

* Another grade B piece. TBD. Could be any one of Kidney, Tuch, Kapanen, Engstrom, Rohrer, etc. There would be lots for the Jets to choose from. It's possible someone like Harris is included as a young NHL asset. There are options with this 3rd piece.

 

[SlafySZN]

Blue Jackets won't even offer anything. Why would they? He asked to be traded out and they are in rebuilding mode. What would be the point to have him play his RFA year with them and then leave for UFA?

Habs are rebuilding, too.

Some habs fans are forgetting that lol. They will finally have some cap space, they won’t sign another big contract, other than Caufield, just when they made some space. And especially not trade mid-teen draft pick for him.

 

[McJedi]

No, it won't be raided. It won't be higher than Debrincat for the 7th pick. Debrincat had this season and one more RFA year on control. That was Dubois's value last summer. This summer is one full RFA season. That's his value.

If the Jets/Habs can't agree, we can talk to Dubois after July 1st and his agent will tell us his true intentions. If that don't play out, so be it. We are not going to go as deep as you think to acquire him when there is a fair chance we can sign him as a UFA for free.

Platform for the trade is sound. It measure up well to both Debrincat and Trouba trades.

* Panthers pick (10-20) range

* Cap contract like Dvorak. Jets won't complain too much about that cause if they trade PLD, they will need to find a center. Lets say they say no to Dvorak. Habs are OK with that cause we have the cap space. Then what? Jets have to sign another center. Do they make a play for Horvat? Up to them.

* Another grade B piece. TBD. Could be any one of Kidney, Tuch, Kapanen, Engstrom, Rohrer, etc. There would be lots for the Jets to choose from. It's possible someone like Harris is included as a young NHL asset. There are options with this 3rd piece.

You’re a Pollyanna if you think other GMs are going to let Hughes get cute on trades. They’ll hold the line and you’ll see the Habs start to stretch to make trades. You’re leaving rebuilding. Going into contention window. Trades get harder from here on out. The more assets you have, the more other GMs will expect.

PLD will have many suitors.

 

[KingBogo]

IMO, I think he will choose a road where he gets paid and is on a team with good direction. He will have options and I highly doubt he signs for 2-3 years. Possible but unlikely



I think he's going to sign a 7 or 8 year deal (sign/trade). I would not bet against that

So he will leave money on the table? At 27 y/o with a big jump in the cap by then he will command a much bigger 7-8 year deal at that time. We just saw Matthews, Laine and Kaprizov sign shorter than max year deals at close to max dollars, to keep them in their prime for the next contract. If PLD signs long term now he will be 32-33 y/o after and past the prime window to maximize his next contract. Panarin did the same thing a few years back and look how that paid off for him. I think we will see more and more top players try to get 11-13 years at max salary rather than 7-8 years at max salary.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You’re a Pollyanna if you think other GMs are going to let Hughes get cute on trades. They’ll hold the line and you’ll see the Habs start to stretch to make trades. You’re leaving rebuilding. Going into contention window. Trades get harder from here on out.

Trades are circumstantial most of the time. This would be a circumstantial trade if it played out. Jets have limited options if Dubois does not want to sign long term. Habs will play this angle well and it works to our advantage in terms of Dubois looking for a team with good direction and the cap space to sign him for 7/8 years at $8M. Not many teams can say they have both available to him as a UFA. Avs and Habs are two that come to my mind. Of course the Avs are cup contenders and the Habs are not right now but you should get the point on the cap space/team direction narrative. This is what Dubois will be after IMO. Jets can't stop him and only control his one RFA year left.

Past trades like Debrincat and Trouba are ones GM's will use in evaluation to compare. This is not a gullible reach in trade value on Dubois

 

[lomiller1]

Sorry but where has PLD scored 80-90 points in the past?

he's on pace for it this year, and it's not out of line with his upward trajectory. Remember he's still only 24 and year over year improvements are still the norm at that age.

 

[Habs Halifax]

So he will leave money on the table? At 27 y/o with a big jump in the cap by then he will command a much bigger 7-8 year deal at that time. We just saw Matthews, Laine and Kaprizov sign shorter than max year deals at close to max dollars, to keep them in their prime for the next contract. If PLD signs long term now he will be 32-33 y/o after and past the prime window to maximize his next contract. Panarin did the same thing a few years back and look how that paid off for him. I think we will see more and more top players try to get 11-13 years at max salary rather than 7-8 years at max salary.

RFA years vs UFA years. Matthews, and Kaprizov are terrible examples. Laine would be closer than the other two in terms of how many RFA years vs UFA years are purchased.

* Matthews sign for 5 years and $58.2M at age 22. 4 RFA years and 1 UFA year
* Kaprizov signed for 5 years and $45M at age 24. 3 RFA years and 1 UFA year
* Laine signed for 4 years and $38.8M at age 24. 1 RFA year and 4 UFA years

Dubois is not signing for 2-3 years and $16M/$24M. Maybe 5 years is possible at $40M. Most in his position, sign for the 7/8 year term. Arguing against it is unreasonable but you will find a few Laine contracts yes.

$24M on a 3 year deal vs $56/$64M on a 7 or 8 year deal? . He'll take the guaranteed money if offered it and I'm sure he will be offered it.

 

[lomiller1]

The other angle to this is Debrincat had this season and one more RFA season in control so that was similar to Dubois last summer. You're right, 1 vs 1, Dubois has more value but it's altered with team control aspect where Dubois is one RFA year then UFA this summer.

Yeah but that 1 extra year is at a minimum of $9 million AAV. That means if you want him to sign for longer that 1 year and walk to free agency you need to give him a multi-year $9 million AAV contract. Even if he'd performed the way it was hoped he'd only be worth 8, and with the performance he's actually turned in Ottawa will either need to let him walk or overpay him by $2+ million per year.

This is why Chicago got so little in return for him. If it wasn't for the inevitability of the his next contract being an overpay he'd have returned another 1st round pick at least so you can't use him to judge market vale.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Yeah but that 1 extra year is at a minimum of $9 million AAV. That means if you want him to sign for longer that 1 year and walk to free agency you need to give him a multi-year $9 million AAV contract. Even if he'd performed the way it was hoped he'd only be worth 8, and with the performance he's actually turned in Ottawa will either need to let him walk or overpay him by $2+ million per year.

This is why Chicago got so little in return for him. If it wasn't for the inevitability of the his next contract being an overpay he'd have returned another 1st round pick at least so you can't use him to judge market vale.

No you don't. That's the qualifying offer in order to retain your RFA asset. If there is no long term agreement, that qualifying offer kicks in. That's how it works. KK with a $6.1M salary vs a 8 year deal at $4.82M is a recent example.

Meier's base salary this year is $10M. Gives him some leverage yes but I'm thinking that his 8 year extension is less than $10M AAV.

 

[KingBogo]

RFA years vs UFA years. Matthews, and Kaprizov are terrible examples. Laine would be closer than the other two in terms of how many RFA years vs UFA years are purchased.

* Matthews sign for 5 years and $58.2M at age 22. 4 RFA years and 1 UFA year
* Kaprizov signed for 5 years and $45M at age 24. 3 RFA years and 1 UFA year
* Laine signed for 4 years and $38.8M at age 24. 1 RFA year and 4 UFA years

Dubois is not signing for 2-3 years and $16M/$24M. Maybe 5 years is possible at $40M. Most in his position, sign for the 7/8 year term. Arguing against it is unreasonable but you will find a few Laine contracts yes.

$24M on a 3 year deal vs $56/$64M on a 7 or 8 year deal? . He'll take the guaranteed money if offered it and I'm sure he will be offered it.

We will see, but for top players there is far less of a distinction between RFA and UFA then there once was. Top players used to get 5-6 years out of their ELC's and put them into the heart of their prime for their big UFA deals. Then teams pushed back and tried to lock up players long term before they truly broke out and have them under paid through their primes. Now we are seeing more and more top players trying to get top dollar and still get themselves into that 27-29 y/o range for a long term teal to maximize career earnings. You don't think it is better to get paid $8 M a season for 11-13 years rather than 7-8 years. Some players are risk adverse, but most like to bet on themselves.

 

[Habs Halifax]

We will see, but for top players there is far less of a distinction between RFA and UFA then there once was. Top players used to get 5-6 years out of their ELC's and put them into the heart of their prime for their big UFA deals. Then teams pushed back and tried to lock up players long term before they truly broke out and have them under paid through their primes. Now we are seeing more and more top players trying to get top dollar and still get themselves into that 27-29 y/o range for a long term teal to maximize career earnings. You don't think it is better to get paid $8 M a season for 11-13 years rather than 7-8 years. Some players are risk adverse, but most like to bet on themselves.

It could be 5 years but it won't be 2-3 years. I'm saying 7 or 8 years but maybe a safer bet is 5-8 years.

There are exceptions to the rule but the exception is not the rule. Dubois is likely to sign for 7 or 8 years but it's possible he signs one more RFA year first. Depends on how things play out this summer.

Saying he will sign a Laine contract is kind of like the Habs thinking we will get another 1st cause Savard and Chiarot got a first . Possible but not probable.

 

[Habs Halifax]

He's coming home for free (cap space) , No need to give up any assets for him.

Anyways he *says* he wants to play in Montreal but personally i think he would just crumble under the pressure of being a hometown kid. Plus the kid has some diva in him. Red flags so i'd rather get him for free. Or not get him at all , not really a big deal. Jets would try to fleece us anyways and ask for the moon (rightfully so)

In past years he might crumble under pressure cause he would be a "go to guy" and leaned on heavy cause we would have lacked talent. This is different cause he joins Suzuki and others who share the pressure.

Imagine Tavares in Toronto without Matthews? Things change drastically and in truth, Tavares might just choose to stay in NY or take the Sharks offer. Apply that to the Habs and it's very possible PLD says no to the Habs if we don't have Suzuki and others.

 

[Habs Halifax]

No guarantee Winnepeg moves him this offseason either. He has one season remaining of team control, Scheifle, helle, wheeler, Dillon, Demelo. If they have a good run this year they might keep everyone together for one last year.

Also what actual report has surfaced he would sign with Montreal or actually wants to?

Lots of context came out last summer. These are not gullible click bait reports by unreliable sources. There is more context but I'll try to keep this post short.

1) A reporter who covers the Jets released information that Dubois has told the Jets he would like to play for the Habs one day. This was laughed at on HF boards but the funny part is more context just kept coming after. "Pierre-Luc Dubois would really like to play in Montreal, eventually. He doesn't even mind telling members of the organization." - Murat Ates

2) Tells the Jets he will honor his RFA years but prefers to explore his UFA options and will not sign long term. Report: Dubois tells Jets he plans to test free agency in 2024

3) Dubois agent says Dubois is interested in playing for the Habs when he was a RFA without a contract.

Agent: Dubois wants to play for Canadiens

Pierre-Luc Dubois has his eyes set on suiting up for his boyhood team one day.His agent, Pat Brisson, said Wednesday that Dubois would like to play for the Montreal Canadiens."Montreal is a city he would probably … I can talk about it because he doesn't have a contract at the moment - he's a...

www.thescore.com

4) After signing the 1 year RFA deal, he has a press conference to calm down the media/fan noise going on last summer. Basically says the things he needs to say. Says he grew up in Montreal, of course he would like to play for his childhood team he cheered for. Who wouldn't? I'm speculating but this was to calm down the noise and he said he wants to focus on Hockey and help the Jets win. Which is what he is doing.... honoring his RFA years.

 

[bernmeister]

Rangers are out, b'c WPG properly wants max return, pref top $, and NY mustn't be stupid and do 1 yr win now, assuming they even can make best offer.

There is an exception to this rule.
Panarin is an elite W, but he and his 11+m cap hit are gone when his deal is up.
Recovering most of that now would help us manage roster getting our young core under cap w/almost no forced moves.

bread has full nmc. he'd veto 99% of scenarios.
Howev, he has good experience w/PLD
and is familiar/comfortable w'LaF

That's a complete line.
If NY could recover some of
high cost of PLD
then also reasonable return in draft picks/futures for bread + LaF from MON
the value of locking down Chytil, Kakko, KAM etc could be worth it.

NY's + DAL 2023 1sts + Jones for PLD + Stanley is what I see, and that is too big a burn if PLD is not under contract and can walk.

It would have to be a virtual, prearrannged 3 way,
PLD to Rangers
who immediately flip to MON for bigger deal as described.


Not impossible but longer odds than an inside straight in poker