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Playoff Push

frightenedinmatenum2 said:
We are going to face Tampa, which is hilarious given the ticket situation. Lots of Leafs fans (both undercover SSMs and Stubhub buyers) are going to take a bath on tickets.
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Most likely result by far is that we play the Leafs, but there is a good chance we pass Florida and play Tampa. Even if we win 4/5 to close the year it's only 40% chance we take the 3rd divisional spot.

Looking at the schedule, though, we could easily win four out of five games. The game against Montreal on Friday will be the real test. If we win that game, then it's Flyers, Blackhawks, and Hurricanes. It would be cool if home ice came down to us winning the last game of the year.
 
milkbag said:
Ahh see now you're adding the "wild card" caveat, which wasn't included before since 7 and 8 wildcard aren't 7 and 8 in points. The ol' goal post movin. Hit me with one of your Facebook-boomer laugh reacts again, baby.
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It’s not a goal post move, you’re struggling with the word hybrid that’s all.

I’ve never had a Facebook account in my life, and don’t plan on it, so no idea what your talking about.
 
MiscBrah said:
Most likely result by far is that we play the Leafs, but there is a good chance we pass Florida and play Tampa. Even if we win 4/5 to close the year it's only 40% chance we take the 3rd divisional spot.

Looking at the schedule, though, we could easily win four out of five games. The game against Montreal on Friday will be the real test. If we win that game, then it's Flyers, Blackhawks, and Hurricanes. It would be cool if home ice came down to us winning the last game of the year.
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The problem with the percentage based prediction, is that I don't think it properly contextualizes Florida's recent performance. Even so, 40 is still pretty high odds.

We obviously will start resting guys at some point, but Florida is missing so many key players and started jobbing early. I think they will catch up (or is it down?) to us by time we start limiting the lineup.
 
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frightenedinmatenum2 said:
The problem with the percentage based prediction, is that I don't think it properly contextualizes Florida's recent performance. Even so, 40 is still pretty high odds.

We obviously will start resting guys at some point, but Florida is missing so many key players and started jobbing early. I think they will catch up (or is it down?) to us by time we start limiting the lineup.
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Yea, it doesn't capture everything. But we aren't playing Florida, so it's like they have to keep losing, and we need to keep winning. We're just running out of racetrack, but it's very much a possibility. Like I said, I think it comes down to us beating Montreal on Friday. if we do that, we have a good chance to win all 5 games, even if we are resting players against Philly and Chicago. I think we have shot at 2nd in division they may go for it..

I can't help but think back to that Florida road trip before the four nations breaks. If we just get 2-3/6 points on that trip we would be 2nd in the division. Obviously, you can't isolate just for that, but that's when the divisional battle was made really difficult for us IMO.
 
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I want us to win the rest of our games so we can have a 100point season, but don't want to face Florida or TBL. We'd have to rely on lights out goaltending every game against TBL, even if Tkachuk comes back at 100% and Stu regains his scoring touch. Florida, if they get MTkachuk back will have us screwed. I like our chances against Florida better because they have less talented players than TBL and rely on refs letting Bennett and Marchand be rats.

I want a Battle of Ontario, where we also are facing a more talented and deep roster, but at least the hype will ne bnext level
 
bicboi64 said:
I want us to win the rest of our games so we can have a 100point season, but don't want to face Florida or TBL. We'd have to rely on lights out goaltending every game against TBL, even if Tkachuk comes back at 100% and Stu regains his scoring touch. Florida, if they get MTkachuk back will have us screwed. I like our chances against Florida better because they have less talented players than TBL and rely on refs letting Bennett and Marchand be rats.

I want a Battle of Ontario, where we also are facing a more talented and deep roster, but at least the hype will ne bnext level
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A 100-pt finish to the season would be a feather in the cap for this ownership and management group.

What a turn around
 
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bicboi64 said:
I want us to win the rest of our games so we can have a 100point season, but don't want to face Florida or TBL. We'd have to rely on lights out goaltending every game against TBL, even if Tkachuk comes back at 100% and Stu regains his scoring touch. Florida, if they get MTkachuk back will have us screwed. I like our chances against Florida better because they have less talented players than TBL and rely on refs letting Bennett and Marchand be rats.

I want a Battle of Ontario, where we also are facing a more talented and deep roster, but at least the hype will ne bnext level
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With the Panthers injury troubles, the series might be the Leafs to lose...which isn't saying much, but if we can beat Tampa there is a chance for battle of Ontario in round 2.
 
Past Champions are ALWAYS tough to toss out of PO
Also Tampa is one of the dirtiest PO team and Florida is not very far behind
Plus we wouldn't get many calls our way against either
Tronna much more soft therefore beatable
 
frightenedinmatenum2 said:
With the Panthers injury troubles, the series might be the Leafs to lose...which isn't saying much, but if we can beat Tampa there is a chance for battle of Ontario in round 2.
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A number of their guys would be playing right now if they were needed, including Barkov. I don't think they will be nearly as depleted for game 1. Then Ekblad is back for game 3.
 
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Nova Stutzlia said:
Sens have 90 points

Most possible points for the Wings and Rangers is 91
For the Islanders it's 90.
So 2 points any way you want to look at it, will do the trick.
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I think (but am not sure) that Isles can’t catch us. By my math they could match our points and RW, but cannot catch our ROW. Someone let me know if I’m off here.
 
dpw said:
Florida is resting guys now. I think their tanking to play the Leafs.
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Not much of a reason to play their full line-up. Winning the division is out of the question and they're guaranteed to play either Tampa or Toronto. The only thing at stake for them now is home ice, but they'd probably prefer to rest their injury-riddled roster.
 
How will resting our players work for us given our cap situation? Can we call up more players from Belleville? Assuming we can't, with a fully healthy roster we are currently carrying the following extra players: Hamonic, Gilbert and Crookshank.

So if we want, we could sit Jensen for Hamonic. We are currently "resting" Brady by playing Crookshank, so if/when Brady comes back we could rest another forward instead. I'm thinking the following forwards seem to need a rest: Stutzle (can't shoot), Pinto (had an injury pre-4 Nations and seem to be a bit slow right now), Cozens (some people here said that as the adrenaline of the trade settled he has slowed down maybe due to being out of shape).

If we want to rest two forwards and one defenseman, we could go 11/7 and play all of Hamonic, Gilbert and Crookshank. I don't know how we could rest more than that, unless we rotate between the players we give a rest to, or we simply reduce and re-distribute ice time.

As for our goalies, I imagine we just keep alternating Ullmark and Forsberg now. If we want to give Ullmark more rest than that, we just play Forsberg more. It would be nice to give Merilainen a couple more starts, but I imagine for that we may need to send Crookshank down?
 
Nobody outside the playoffs is catching us outside of multiple once in a lifetime type situations all happening at once. While I'm as superstitious as the next fan and refuse to believe we have playoffs until we officially clinch, any sane person would conclude that we have almost certainly clinched a playoff spot.

The Eastern playoff race is almost over. The only thing that could possibly make it interesting is if Detroit beats Montreal in regulation and then wins their game in hand. Then there is a legit threat to Montreal. Rangers and CBJ are almost certainly out, if Detroit loses to Montreal they are also probably out.

Detroit/Montreal is almost like a play in game at this point. The result doesn't 100 percent determine who makes it in, but it probably decided if Detroit doesn't.
 
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DrEasy said:
How will resting our players work for us given our cap situation? Can we call up more players from Belleville? Assuming we can't, with a fully healthy roster we are currently carrying the following extra players: Hamonic, Gilbert and Crookshank.

So if we want, we could sit Jensen for Hamonic. We are currently "resting" Brady by playing Crookshank, so if/when Brady comes back we could rest another forward instead. I'm thinking the following forwards seem to need a rest: Stutzle (can't shoot), Pinto (had an injury pre-4 Nations and seem to be a bit slow right now), Cozens (some people here said that as the adrenaline of the trade settled he has slowed down maybe due to being out of shape).

If we want to rest two forwards and one defenseman, we could go 11/7 and play all of Hamonic, Gilbert and Crookshank. I don't know how we could rest more than that, unless we rotate between the players we give a rest to, or we simply reduce and re-distribute ice time.

As for our goalies, I imagine we just keep alternating Ullmark and Forsberg now. If we want to give Ullmark more rest than that, we just play Forsberg more. It would be nice to give Merilainen a couple more starts, but I imagine for that we may need to send Crookshank down?
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so we cant call anyone else up. Once cousins gets activated from LTIR (i expect it to be soon since he has been regularly skating) we will have to send down someone (most likely crookshank) just to stay cap compliant

I was on the full rest route until the possibility of 3rd in the division opened up. I get that tampa would be a harder matchup but we split the season series and for a team that is just earning its playoff spot the higher position would be better psychologically imo

for forwards personally i start the resting train at giroux then go to pinto and timmy
for dmen i would look at resting jensen, zub

unfortunately we missed the opportunity to give ullmark another full night off (unless brady comes back sooner and cousins stays on the ltir for a bit) but personally we need brady at 100% for the playoffs so he can rest as much as he needs to
 
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frightenedinmatenum2 said:
Nobody outside the playoffs is catching us outside of multiple once in a lifetime type situations all happening at once. While I'm as superstitious as the next fan and refuse to believe we have playoffs until we officially clinch, any sane person would conclude that we have almost certainly clinched a playoff spot.

The Eastern playoff race is almost over. The only thing that could possibly make it interesting is if Detroit beats Montreal in regulation and then wins their game in hand. Then there is a legit threat to Montreal. Rangers and CBJ are almost certainly out, if Detroit loses to Montreal they are also probably out.

Detroit/Montreal is almost like a play in game at this point. The result doesn't 100 percent determine who makes it in, but it probably decided if Detroit doesn't.
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for the east moneypuck has
montreal at 84.2%
NYR at 8.4%
wings at 4.6%
isles at 2.6%

and cbj is basically done

so that last spot is really down to two teams (montreal and rangers) especially since the wings have a hard schedule to end the season
 
DrEasy said:
How will resting our players work for us given our cap situation? Can we call up more players from Belleville? Assuming we can't, with a fully healthy roster we are currently carrying the following extra players: Hamonic, Gilbert and Crookshank.

So if we want, we could sit Jensen for Hamonic. We are currently "resting" Brady by playing Crookshank, so if/when Brady comes back we could rest another forward instead. I'm thinking the following forwards seem to need a rest: Stutzle (can't shoot), Pinto (had an injury pre-4 Nations and seem to be a bit slow right now), Cozens (some people here said that as the adrenaline of the trade settled he has slowed down maybe due to being out of shape).

If we want to rest two forwards and one defenseman, we could go 11/7 and play all of Hamonic, Gilbert and Crookshank. I don't know how we could rest more than that, unless we rotate between the players we give a rest to, or we simply reduce and re-distribute ice time.

As for our goalies, I imagine we just keep alternating Ullmark and Forsberg now. If we want to give Ullmark more rest than that, we just play Forsberg more. It would be nice to give Merilainen a couple more starts, but I imagine for that we may need to send Crookshank down?
Click to expand...
Ya with the cap position it’s hard, but also there is this, after the deadline until the end of the regular season, NHL teams are only permitted four regular player recalls, the rest fall under emergency recalls.
Not sure how many of the 4, the Sens have used.
Likely if Cousins is ready soon, he’d like 1 or 2 games.
 
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