Line Combos: Playoff Lines

[TIGERCOOL]

This is getting tough, but to me Dewar has got to be the odd man out. His even strength play has been lackluster. He's essentially a passenger on our fourth line. I understand our PK has improved but that could be just as much puck luck as anything else. Marner returning and Jarnkrok (soon) can make up the difference there.

Bert/Matthews/Domi
McMann/Tavares/Marner
Knies/Holmberg/Nylander
Jarnkrok/Kampf/Reeves

Swap 4LW and 3LW depending on how that third line is looking defensively.

 

[thusk]

So what you're saying is we should expect back to back Conn Smythe worthy playoff performances from Nylander,

what im saying is nylander doesn't exploit entierly his talent and he could be much more than what he bring right now and the Nylander we saw 1st half is by far better than the nylander we saw on 2nd half. I want to see the nylander who was working and not the nylander who taking it easy

the 1st version can really help the leafs but not sure about the 2nd version

 

[ponder]

Overall we're 3-0 since Marner returned, with the forward lines always being variants of:

Bert - Matthews - Domi
xxx - JT - Marner
xxx - Holmberg - Willy
xxx - Kampf - xxx

Albeit against below average competition (Habs, Pens and Devils), but still, can't complain much about 3-0. I do think we're on the right track spreading out the offence like this, but I'd say so far:

• Bert - Matthews - Domi has been dominant
• McMann - JT - Marner hasn't lit it up on the score sheet, but are really controlling play and looking good IMO
• But none of the Willy lines have worked too well yet, it doesn't feel like we've come up with a combo that properly uses Willy's talent IMO

Looking at NHL Lines Advanced Stats , here's all forward lines with 60+ mins this season:

By expected goals %

By actual goals % (doesn't yet include today's game, Bert/Matthews/Domi will jump even higher)

My takeaways, both from these numbers, and watching the games:

• Basically any line with Matthews on it is incredible. But Bert/Matthews/Domi specifically is as good or better than any other Matthews line, and allows us to use both Marner and Nylander in the middle 6, so that's a winner
• Not showing up in the above stats (not enough minutes together), but the current McMann/JT/Marner line has been very good, both by the eye test and advanced stats
  • However, with this line, we aren't getting much out of xxx/Holmberg/Willy IMO
• To get more out of Willy, McMann/JT/Willy has been really good. True, in limited minutes, but not THAT limited, we should give it more burn

So I think this is worth a try for the playoffs, assuming Jarnkrok is healthy and up to speed by game 1 (hopefully back for the last 1-3 regular season games):

Bert - Matthews - Domi
McMann - JT - Willy
Jarnkrok - Holmberg - Marner
Knies - Kampf - TBD

Where TBD is one of Reaves, Gregor, Dewar or Robertson, really not sure! And also a few shifts a game of Willy/JT/Marner, throwing that out when we have a key offensive zone faceoff where we really want to apply offensive pressure, but the Matthews line needs rest.

But really, we want to find a combo where all 3 of the top lines are very dangerous, all really controlling the play, and I don't think we're quite there yet. The above is worth a shot IMO!

 

[Mitch nylander]

To me I think the last spot is between Dewar and Reaves. And I think I like what Reaves brings. Love Robertson but it's him or Knies and I prefer Knies.

I have more question on d. I don't love Timmins or Lyubushkin. And I don't really like the idea of having all LDs. But at this point I'm struggling to pick the right 6.

 

[ponder]

To me I think the last spot is between Dewar and Reaves. And I think I like what Reaves brings. Love Robertson but it's him or Knies and I prefer Knies.

I have more question on d. I don't love Timmins or Lyubushkin. And I don't really like the idea of having all LDs. But at this point I'm struggling to pick the right 6.

Yeah, I'd probably slightly side with one of Dewar or Reaves (depending on whether we feel we need more PK help or physicality), along with Knies/Kampf, for the 4th line.

For D pairs, yeah ... it's gonna be a little sketchy no matter what. I personally think:

• We simply do not have anything remotely resembling a top pair RD, Rielly's partner is going to be weak, and there's just no way around that. But Rielly/Schenn was great last playoffs, maybe Rielly/Boosh can find similar magic
  • Rielly/Boosh has been a fairly good pair so far - 56% 5v5 goals pct (best of any Rielly pair with 100+ mins), 54% 5v5 expected goals pct (2nd best of any Rielly pair with 100+ mins, after Rielly/Lily)
• McCabe/Benoit have generally been very good, that seems like a keeper
• For the 3rd pair, either Edmundson/Lily or Edmundson/Brodie, and I'd personally side Edmundson/Lily
  • Lily has been basically Edmundson's only partner so far, and it's worked great - they've only had 86 mins together, but have been on for 5 goals for, 1 against, for a truly excellent 83% 5v5 goals pct
  • Obvious that 83% won't hold up over a larger sample size, crazy numbers, but they looked really good before the injuries, worth more burn IMO

So with everyone healthy, I'd lean towards this:

Rielly - Boosh
McCabe - Benoit
Edmundson - Lily

With Brodie as the #7, stepping in if there are injuries or if any of those 6 are struggling. Brodie is right on the edge of being in the lineup, but with everyone healthy, IMO those are the best pairings we can field, Brodie is just barely on the outside looking in.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Tonight's game showed, yet again, that JT does not belong on the top PP unit any more. Bert would be a much better option.

Also, Willy and Mitch seemed to have chemistry, but JT wasted them.

Reminds me of the old joke: 'What do you call a blonde between two redheads?' A mental block.

JT looked much better as 3C.

Either:
Willy - Holmberg - Mitch
McMann - JT - Knies/Jarnkrok
or:
McMann/Knies - Willy - Mitch
McMann/Knies - JT - Jarnkrok
would be better.

 

[1specter]

I don't love Holmberg as 3C, I like the player but just don't feel comfortable with him taking on that role in playoffs. Now, Jarnkrok is an important piece to the third line and potentially with him back it'll be better, but I also feel like it's a weird line where Nylander is getting kinda wasted as well. At the same time, I'm not sure what else to do, as I like the top two lines and don't really want to break up Bertuzzi-Matthews-Domi after they've been playing so well.

 

[LeafalCrusader]

Really think Tavares should be 3c with guys like Knies and McMann. Problem is what to do with the 2nd line.

 

[1specter]

Really think Tavares should be 3c with guys like Knies and McMann. Problem is what to do with the 2nd line.

Not giving Nylander a shot at C again was a mistake. We should've given it a real try for 15-20 games to see if it could work, missed opportunity now.

 

[Kyle089]

Bertuzzi - Matthews - Domi
Nylander - Holmberg - Marner
Knies - Tavares - McMann
Robertson - Kampf - Jarnkrok

- I don't see any need in touching the top line, as they've been dynamite so far.
- Nylander with Marner on the same line has the potentially to be a dynamic duo. Then you add Mitchy's favourite player in the NHL as his center for extra motivation.
- Tavares gets two big physical wingers with good hands to cycle down low, wearing the opposition down.
- When Robertson plays he scores, so I had to put him in the lineup. Putting him with 2 defensively responsible players should help him out at the other end of the ice.

Rielly - Lyubushkin
Benoit - McCabe
Edmundson - Liljegren

Does this defence core scream Stanley Cup contenders? Absolutely not, but I got to work with what's available. There's some good size which will hopefully help with the opposition's forecheck and with clearing the front of the crease.

 

[ZEBROA]

Bertuzzi - Matthews - Domi
McMann- Nylander - Marner
Knies? - Tavares - Jarnkrok
Robertson? - Kampf - Holmberg

 

[arso40]

Bertuzzi - Matthews - Domi
McMann- Nylander - Marner
Knies? - Tavares - Jarnkrok
Robertson? - Kampf - Holmberg

I'd love that second line

 

[LeafSteel]

Bertuzzi - Matthews - Domi
Nylander - Holmberg - Marner
Knies - Tavares - McMann
Robertson - Kampf - Jarnkrok

- I don't see any need in touching the top line, as they've been dynamite so far.
- Nylander with Marner on the same line has the potentially to be a dynamic duo. Then you add Mitchy's favourite player in the NHL as his center for extra motivation.
- Tavares gets two big physical wingers with good hands to cycle down low, wearing the opposition down.
- When Robertson plays he scores, so I had to put him in the lineup. Putting him with 2 defensively responsible players should help him out at the other end of the ice.

Rielly - Lyubushkin
Benoit - McCabe
Edmundson - Liljegren

Does this defence core scream Stanley Cup contenders? Absolutely not, but I got to work with what's available. There's some good size which will hopefully help with the opposition's forecheck and with clearing the front of the crease.

Agree with your lineup, from top to bottom.

Well done.

 

[Leafs98]

Just cant have any Robertson spaz moves in tight playoff games. It'll go the other way and in back of the net. But such a dilema cause he makes another line so much more offensive. But possessing the puck means no blind passes or skating over the puck. I dont think he ironed that out yet.

 

[thusk]

personally i would stay with actual line up. If leafs is able to get 3 line playing at high rare, if much harder to play against.

If they are better offensively and keeping puck possession even more in general, they will also defending less, allowing less scoring chance and goal.... and since they rolling them on 3 different line, they was looking most better to protect their lead.

If leafs need a goal, keefe will still able to use nylander and marner together to create something but overal, leafs should keep actual line up.

 

[ToneDog]

If this team is going to go deep spreading the wealth, they need Matty to produce with Max and Bert, Mitch to carry Tavares and Willie to drive line #3. I'm just not sure where Jarnkrok fits in. I can see him playing on like #1 late in games when they have the lead. Ideally he would be on RW with Matty allowing Domi to play #3C with Willie and Knies but I can't see them breaking up Bert, Matty and Domi to start the playoffs.

 

[Machinae]

They'll never do it, but the Leafs should ice a shut down line of:

Jarnkrok - Kampf - Marner

 

[kevsh]

Nylander - Holmberg - Marner

I have great concerns Holmberg centering any of the top 3 lines in the playoffs (this of course applies to everyone that has suggested his spot in their ideal lineup, not just this version). It's simply a question of experience, in that he has exactly zero playoff games under his belt. On the road where the Leafs won't get last change, opposing teams can take advantage as he hasn't proven yet he's going to be able to handle tough assignments.

Unfortunately, there aren't many other options. It's basically Holmberg, Kampf or Domi. Kampf hasn't been great this year but he's got the experience, Domi is looking like he's locked onto Matthews' wing.

The other options: Jarnkrok is going to be rusty and hasn't worked out at C while Nylander just hasn't worked out at C.

 

[ZEBROA]

I have great concerns Holmberg centering any of the top 3 lines in the playoffs (this of course applies to everyone that has suggested his spot in their ideal lineup, not just this version). It's simply a question of experience, in that he has exactly zero playoff games under his belt. On the road where the Leafs won't get last change, opposing teams can take advantage as he hasn't proven yet he's going to be able to handle tough assignments.

Unfortunately, there aren't many other options. It's basically Holmberg, Kampf or Domi. Kampf hasn't been great this year but he's got the experience, Domi is looking like he's locked onto Matthews' wing.

The other options: Jarnkrok is going to be rusty and hasn't worked out at C while Nylander just hasn't worked out at C.

They have tried Nylander at C with Marner and Mcmann how many games?

 

[sxvnert]

Bert Matthews Domi
Marner Holmberg Nylander
McMann Tavares Knies
Dewer Jarnkrok Reaves

 

[Gary Nylund]

Bertuzzi - Matthews - Domi
Nylander - Holmberg - Marner
Knies - Tavares - McMann
Robertson - Kampf - Jarnkrok

- I don't see any need in touching the top line, as they've been dynamite so far.
- Nylander with Marner on the same line has the potentially to be a dynamic duo. Then you add Mitchy's favourite player in the NHL as his center for extra motivation.
- Tavares gets two big physical wingers with good hands to cycle down low, wearing the opposition down.
- When Robertson plays he scores, so I had to put him in the lineup. Putting him with 2 defensively responsible players should help him out at the other end of the ice.

Rielly - Lyubushkin
Benoit - McCabe
Edmundson - Liljegren

Does this defence core scream Stanley Cup contenders? Absolutely not, but I got to work with what's available. There's some good size which will hopefully help with the opposition's forecheck and with clearing the front of the crease.

Interesting! I don't know how well Marner and Nylander would work together, but it's definitely worth a try. The rest of it looks really good, and I LOVE that you have Robertson in there. Most of the line combos I've seen posted leave him out but like you say, when he plays he scores so I say you find a spot for him which you did.

 

[Skullz]

Yeah, I agree with some of the posts here. I've liked the three-line attack, but it has led to Willy being a little wasted.

 

[conFABulator]

There are so many options, so many combinations and permutations. That's a good thing of course. It speaks to our depth.

The concern is that I don't want to see us tinkering and messing with our chemistry and flow simply to counter what the other team/coach is doing.

I want us to know find out best line-up, run with it and make the other team respond. Of course, injuries and other factors will require us to tinker and tweak. We will have players sitting out that I would be VERY comfortable playing for us. This will help us sustain a long run, but we need o win a round or two for that to be a factor.

Bertuzzi Matthews Domi - to me, this line is a lock. They gel well, surround our star with jam and playoff pedigree and give us balance depth on lines #2 and #3.

McMann Tavares Marner - I like this one too. Marner and McMann support JT's defensive shortcomings and this seems like a line that can chip in a goal a night.

Jarnkrok Holmberg Nylander - here is where it gets interesting. I like the looks of this line. I like the idea of a Swedish-connection chemistry and we know WN and CJ play well together. This also has nice defensive balance for our sniping star. It should also kick in a goal a night.

Knies Kampf Reaves - I think we saw the partial audition for this last night and Knies was a beast on the fourth with Kampf. I think Reaves can handle fourth line ice time and I think he brings value in other ways against a team like Florida.

As for depth, I am surprised I have Reaves in ahead of Robertson, Dewar and Gregor.l but do any of those guys bring something more valuable in six minutes night? Maybe Dewar on the PK. Our flexibility is very useful though. If someone in our top nine goes down, we can put Knies or Robertson up and backfill on the fourth.

As for D, it is much less clear to me. We need to see who Edmondson plays well with and if Liljegren is healthy or not. We are running out of time for these experiments. Today, I would go with...

Rielly Lyubushkin - LD\RD with some track record. Partnering MR with a stay at home with sandpaper seems like the model (Schenn last year, Lyubushkin the year before). It also gives us more options on the other pairings. We might see Mo get five or six more minutes a night than Boosh, maybe not if we go five forwards on the PP.

McCabe Benoit - They work together, they might be our shit down pair and they play playoff hockey. I think both are in the PO top six.

Brodie Edmondson - This remains to be seen. We could swap Liljegren or Gio in for Brodie but I want to see this one first. TJB has shown he aril has some hockey left and maybe third pairing, on the left side with a partner like JE is the play here?

We start Samsonov in G1, no doubt about it. We give him some leash. We haven't seen a goalie on this kind of heater heading into the playoffs in quite some time.

 

[thusk]

Yeah, I agree with some of the posts here. I've liked the three-line attack, but it has led to Willy being a little wasted.

Domi played majority ofbseason on a 3rd line and still have basically same number of pts than nylander and marner.

I dont know why most of you considerating playing on a different line = waste a player

if as exemple removing nylander from a 2nd line to reducing 2nd line impact of 10% but helping to raise 3rd line impact of 25-30%. As a team you will be winner by balancing your line up. the goal is not to look sexy but to win. If thats making leafs a better team, they are not wasting nylander in any case but just making ajustment that will finally making leafs a better playoff team and not just talking about offensive side but can also help the team in the defensive end too.

Thats also can removing pressure individualy off matthews, marner, nylander. if 1 one those 3 line had a bad night, you still have 2 line to compensate... when your put all your eggs on same basket, when 1 of 2 line had a bad night... youre only having 1 remaining line to overcome this. Put a lot of pressure on core.

 

[sxvnert]

The media calls to reunite Marner-Matthews are idiotic.

When Matthews plays with Domi/Bert hes the line driver. When Matthews plays with Marner, Marner is while Matthews does figure eights in the offensive zone waiting for a pass.

A more engaged Matthews is a much more dangerous Matthews. Keefe being Keefe, he'll reunite them the second he panics.