Playoff Analysis and Future Thoughts

[SirPaste]

Would love to add Bennett as a 2C. Seeing he doesn’t put up a ton of points could possibly mean the Blues could get him in the 5-7M range.

Bennett is arguably the top C UFA available and will have a ton of suitors, he is going to get a big deal likely in the 7 year 7-8 million range. Not sure he is the type of player you want to be signing to that kind of contract, will likely age very poorly as soon as year 2.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

If we sign Bennett to anything more than 5.5 on a 3 year deal I might actually get physically sick

 

[MissouriMook]

Bennett is arguably the top C UFA available and will have a ton of suitors, he is going to get a big deal likely in the 7 year 7-8 million range. Not sure he is the type of player you want to be signing to that kind of contract, will likely age very poorly as soon as year 2.

I would be ecstatic if we landed him this summer for 5 years @ $7M per year or for 7 years @ $5M per year with the contract front-loaded. I'd be very uncomfortable giving him $7M-$8M per year for 7 years, even if someone else will.

 

[Brian39]

I can't imagine Bennett getting less than $40M on his next deal.

$40M from Florida would be $5M x 8 years. That is a team in win-now mode that should have no problem going 8 years if they can get him at a good AAV. Their core is locked up through 2029/30+ and he fails right in the middle of their age range (Barkov is 29, Tkachuk is 27, Reinhart is 29, Verhaege is 29, Forsling is 28, Jones is 30, and Bennett is 28). I would be absolutely stunned if Florida isn't currently willing to extend him at $5M x 8. His current $4.425M AAV is 5.03% of this year's cap. $5M AAV would be 5.24% of next year's cap and 4.81% of the cap in 2026/27.

$5M x 8 years wouldn't even be a raise. It would be a lower cap percentage in year 1 than his current contract was and by year 2 it would be a smaller cap percentage than any year of his current contract. Given the rising cap and what he's done since signing his last deal, the Panthers should be ecstatic if they can get him at a $5M AAV.

He is currently leading the Panthers in playoff goals with 6 and his 9 points are 1 back of the team lead. They are the most physical team in the playoffs and he leads them in hits. He was 2nd on the team in goals during the regular season, 5th in points, and 4th in hits. Depending on who you ask, he is either favored by the DoPS or knows exactly where the supplemental discipline line is better than anyone in the league. Either way, he tangibly weakens playoff opponents without having to sit in the press box. None of this is a one off. He led them in hits last playoffs and led all their forwards in hits the playoffs before that. 7 goals and 14 points through 19 games on the way to the Cup in 2023/24. 5 goals and 15 points on the way to the Final in 2022/23.

And we're to believe that Florida wouldn't give him max term (understanding that he will not be worth it by the end) in order to keep him around for their existing Cup window at $5M AAV?

I'd be shocked if the Panthers wouldn't be rushing to sign him at $5M x 8, which tells me that any other team looking to land him needs to be making it crystal clear to his agent that they are looking to find a physical, playoff performing, 20+ goal center and have an owner who is happy to spend way more than $40M to land such a guy.

 

[Mike Liut]

I’m not sure what the better option is.. to over pay for a FA 2C by a couple mill per year, or spend valuable assets trading for one. I think I’d rather waste the money than spend the assets.

 

[The Note]

I’m not sure what the better option is.. to over pay for a FA 2C by a couple mill per year, or spend valuable assets trading for one. I think I’d rather waste the money than spend the assets.

It’s not exactly apples to apples but I think anytime you can afford not overpaying a player that is the preference. Just to use an example - if the choice this offseason is to pay Sam Bennett $7.5x7 or trade 19 overall + a non-Dvorsky prospect, I’d rather make the trade. And I’m someone who’s already not thrilled with the amount of picks the Blues don’t have over the next couple years. Of course it’s not usually an easy either/or decision like that.

 

[Majorityof1]

It’s not exactly apples to apples but I think anytime you can afford not overpaying a player that is the preference. Just to use an example - if the choice this offseason is to pay Sam Bennett $7.5x7 or trade 19 overall + a non-Dvorsky prospect, I’d rather make the trade. And I’m someone who’s already not thrilled with the amount of picks the Blues don’t have over the next couple years. Of course it’s not usually an easy either/or decision like that.

I concur. The name of the game in the salary cap era is maximizing the amount you underpay your players so you can fit mire talent under the cap.

Its a balancing act, because those picks could turn into good players on ELC/bridges. But actively deciding to overpay a player across the whole contract is never smart if you want to be truly competitive.

 

[ScratchCatFever]

I'm worried about how Bennett will age once he's past 30. He's logged 50 playoff games to date since Florida's run in the 23 playoffs (95 total) with a chance to close in on 65 over the last 3 seasons by the end of the playoffs if they advance past Toronto, beat Carolina and get back to the Finals. He's a good hockey player, but his style of taking liberties away from the play and throwing elbow headshots isn't something I'm sure I want in a Blue Note. Imo, he just crosses the line far more often than he toes it. I'm proud of the Blues history of not employing guys who are actively trying to shorten the careers of other players.

 

[MissouriMook]

I concur. The name of the game in the salary cap era is maximizing the amount you underpay your players so you can fit mire talent under the cap.

Its a balancing act, because those picks could turn into good players on ELC/bridges. But actively deciding to overpay a player across the whole contract is never smart if you want to be truly competitive.

I would respectfully argue that another reason to stick to a budget with your good but not great players is so that when a player is available that can have a huge impact on your roster you can afford to do what it takes to get that player. I wouldn’t put Bennett in that category but I still feel like that’s another reason to budget your bread and butter guys.

 

[ToastedRavioli]

Bennett would definitely help this team considerably in the short-term. It's just a question of how much term he wants. If he wants a long-term contract we should probably just stay away. However, with two free agent signings this team really could be a contender.

Buchnevich - Thomas - Snuggerud
Holloway - Schenn - Kyrou
Neighbours - Bennett - Bolduc
Toropchenko - Faksa/Sundqvist - Walker

Fowler - Parayko
Broberg - Fabbro
Tucker - Faulk

Binnington
Hofer

That's a fantastic forward group and a good D-core. With Binnington as a potential x-factor in the playoffs, that team has contender potential. Neighbours - Bennett - Bolduc would be a nightmare third line for opposing teams in the playoffs. Three skilled, physical pests on one line. Fabbro rounds out our D-core really nice and allows us to shelter Faulk. Fabbro seems like a no-brainer for the Blues given his age and position. Only question is if he is willing to sign here or if he can command enough money to price himself out as an option for this team. Bennett on the other hand is more of a mixed bag. He would really help our team in the short-term, especially given his playoff success. However, if he only wants a long-term contract, that could be counter-productive to the long-term vision Armstrong and Steen have for this team.

 

[Majorityof1]

I would respectfully argue that another reason to stick to a budget with your good but not great players is so that when a player is available that can have a huge impact on your roster you can afford to do what it takes to get that player. I wouldn’t put Bennett in that category but I still feel like that’s another reason to budget your bread and butter guys.

I agree with that to an extent. I think there is a rising cost to the more elite talent. A 70-point player is rarer than a 35-point player, so you can pay them more than double due to that rarity and it is still count as fair pay or underpay. The market reflects the rising cost of incremental talent at the high end. But to give that 70-point player $2M more than they would make on the market because they would not sign with your team otherwise is not desirable. A lot of times, even paying market price is undesirable as the market tends to be an overpay anyway.

 

[MissouriMook]

I agree with that to an extent. I think there is a rising cost to the more elite talent. A 70-point player is rarer than a 35-point player, so you can pay them more than double due to that rarity and it is still count as fair pay or underpay. The market reflects the rising cost of incremental talent at the high end. But to give that 70-point player $2M more than they would make on the market because they would not sign with your team otherwise is not desirable. A lot of times, even paying market price is undesirable as the market tends to be an overpay anyway.

Your last point was where my comment was primarily focused on, having additional flexibility to pay full market rate for a player we might otherwise be reluctant to compete for. I can’t think of a whole bunch of players for whom I would pay a premium to already inflated UFA prices. I would also extend this to acquiring a player via trade that is already on a market value contract.

 

[BlueDream]

I'm worried about how Bennett will age once he's past 30. He's logged 50 playoff games to date since Florida's run in the 23 playoffs (95 total) with a chance to close in on 65 over the last 3 seasons by the end of the playoffs if they advance past Toronto, beat Carolina and get back to the Finals. He's a good hockey player, but his style of taking liberties away from the play and throwing elbow headshots isn't something I'm sure I want in a Blue Note. Imo, he just crosses the line far more often than he toes it. I'm proud of the Blues history of not employing guys who are actively trying to shorten the careers of other players.

Meh. Let’s be honest here, we have employed guys like that. It would be impossible not to when the franchise has been around for almost 60 years.

I just don’t buy into the moral grandstanding by fans acting like their team is better than that. Nah, we’re not. The name of the game is winning and every team will always do whatever it takes to win games. This goes for any sport too, not just hockey.

 

[ScratchCatFever]

Meh. Let’s be honest here, we have employed guys like that. It would be impossible not to when the franchise has been around for almost 60 years.

I just don’t buy into the moral grandstanding by fans acting like their team is better than that. Nah, we’re not. The name of the game is winning and every team will always do whatever it takes to win games. This goes for any sport too, not just hockey.

"Moral Grandstanding" Now how did I know that's almost precisely how my comment would be construed by at least one person? For the record, I absolutely despise that garbage. There's a difference between having an opinion of a player that has a proof positive track record of questionable bush league physical contact that is nowhere near the puck and usually aimed at the upper body or head area of a player and shaming the masses for supporting being dirty. I think we all understand it's part of the game. Hell, I even gave the guy credit for being a good hockey player.

The biggest thing for me is guys who don't mind taking liberties with the top players of other teams will inevitably draw the same attention and ire to Thomas, Broberg, Kyrou, Holloway. I'd rather our top players remain in the lineup and not concussed due to petty retribution in the second month of the season. The virtual non-existence of a true enforcer roll has much to do with how I view this matter now.

 

[HighNote]

Meh. Let’s be honest here, we have employed guys like that. It would be impossible not to when the franchise has been around for almost 60 years.

I just don’t buy into the moral grandstanding by fans acting like their team is better than that. Nah, we’re not. The name of the game is winning and every team will always do whatever it takes to win games. This goes for any sport too, not just hockey.

Who was the last player the Blues had like that? I mean someone who is fined and/or suspended as much as Bennett is.

 

[The Note]

Bennett would definitely help this team considerably in the short-term. It's just a question of how much term he wants. If he wants a long-term contract we should probably just stay away. However, with two free agent signings this team really could be a contender.

Buchnevich - Thomas - Snuggerud
Holloway - Schenn - Kyrou
Neighbours - Bennett - Bolduc
Toropchenko - Faksa/Sundqvist - Walker

Fowler - Parayko
Broberg - Fabbro
Tucker - Faulk

Binnington
Hofer

That's a fantastic forward group and a good D-core. With Binnington as a potential x-factor in the playoffs, that team has contender potential. Neighbours - Bennett - Bolduc would be a nightmare third line for opposing teams in the playoffs. Three skilled, physical pests on one line. Fabbro rounds out our D-core really nice and allows us to shelter Faulk. Fabbro seems like a no-brainer for the Blues given his age and position. Only question is if he is willing to sign here or if he can command enough money to price himself out as an option for this team. Bennett on the other hand is more of a mixed bag. He would really help our team in the short-term, especially given his playoff success. However, if he only wants a long-term contract, that could be counter-productive to the long-term vision Armstrong and Steen have for this team.

He’s 1,000% going to want (rightfully) max term and some sort of movement protection. Sure if he wants to sign for 3 years, go for it. But that’s not happening.

Meh. Let’s be honest here, we have employed guys like that. It would be impossible not to when the franchise has been around for almost 60 years.

I just don’t buy into the moral grandstanding by fans acting like their team is better than that. Nah, we’re not. The name of the game is winning and every team will always do whatever it takes to win games. This goes for any sport too, not just hockey.

It’s not moral grandstanding to acknowledge a guy is a dirty player and prefer your team to stay away. I haven’t seen anyone say they’re going to boycott the team if they sign him. I don’t want them to sign him for a myriad of reasons but at least a part of his value is the fact he apparently has carte blanche to knock opposing players out of playoff series with dirty plays.

 

[BlueDream]

He’s 1,000% going to want (rightfully) max term and some sort of movement protection. Sure if he wants to sign for 3 years, go for it. But that’s not happening.

It’s not moral grandstanding to acknowledge a guy is a dirty player and prefer your team to stay away. I haven’t seen anyone say they’re going to boycott the team if they sign him. I don’t want them to sign him for a myriad of reasons but at least a part of his value is the fact he apparently has carte blanche to knock opposing players out of playoff series with dirty plays.

What are you talking about? I bolded the part of the post where he said he takes pride in the fact that throughout the Blues history, they haven’t employed guys like that. That’s what I was replying to. And that is flat out false whether you want to admit it or not. I never denied that Bennett is a dirty player, you just completely missed the point.

Who was the last player the Blues had like that? I mean someone who is fined and/or suspended as much as Bennett is.

We’ve employed guys like Ott, Lapierre, Nichol, Reaves, etc who certainly had track records with numerous fines and suspensions in their careers.

Isn’t Chris Pronger one of the most famous players we’ve ever had? Maybe you’re too young to remember how he played, I’m not sure. But maybe you need to go look up how he played the game. He’d be getting suspended every week if he was an active player these days.

I can list plenty of guys. It’s not difficult to do.

"Moral Grandstanding" Now how did I know that's almost precisely how my comment would be construed by at least one person? For the record, I absolutely despise that garbage. There's a difference between having an opinion of a player that has a proof positive track record of questionable bush league physical contact that is nowhere near the puck and usually aimed at the upper body or head area of a player and shaming the masses for supporting being dirty. I think we all understand it's part of the game. Hell, I even gave the guy credit for being a good hockey player.

The biggest thing for me is guys who don't mind taking liberties with the top players of other teams will inevitably draw the same attention and ire to Thomas, Broberg, Kyrou, Holloway. I'd rather our top players remain in the lineup and not concussed due to petty retribution in the second month of the season. The virtual non-existence of a true enforcer roll has much to do with how I view this matter now.

Alright, if you didn’t want someone to reply with that comment then don’t make an inaccurate post and act like the Blues organization has always been “too classy” and too good to employ dirty players. We’ve done it, every team has done it. If you don’t think we have, then you’re a homer and I can’t help you.

 

[HighNote]

We’ve employed guys like Ott, Lapierre, Nichol, Reaves, etc who certainly had track records with numerous fines and suspensions in their careers.

Isn’t Chris Pronger one of the most famous players we’ve ever had? Maybe you’re too young to remember how he played, I’m not sure. But maybe you need to go look up how he played the game. He’d be getting suspended every week if he was an active player these days.

I can list plenty of guys. It’s not difficult to do.

Thanks for the response. Chris Pronger is pretty irrelevant to the discussion as it's been so long, I meant recent players. He hasn't been a Blue for over 20 years.

I don't know if I'd put Reaves in the same boat as all those other guys. I think he has like 3 hits that he was suspended for, out of 3065 career hits. Those are great numbers. He's also not the kind of player to try sneaky stuff like the Keith Special where you slash guys on the hands, or the Marchand Slew Foot, etc. I think Bennett has about the same amount of suspensions with less than half the amount of hits.

I agree on the rest. Ott was the most recent player, so it's been about a decade since we've had one. Good job on the Blues' for avoiding them for as long as they have, seems like they've moved away from it. Hopefully they keep avoiding those guys.

 

[Reality Czech]

I wanted him gone in 2019. after the Cup run I stopped complaining for a bit, but I still think he's a flawed GM overall and want someone new at the helm. The problem with mediocre GMs (like Yzerman, who I think is worse than Army) is that even if their mistakes outweigh or outnumber their wins....firing them almost always guarantees you end up with someone worse. Almost all NHL GMs are bad at their jobs, but since its a good ol' boys club they just keep playing musical chairs and there is rarely any new blood (and when there is, you end up with Pejorative Slurs like the guy from the Coyotes that got forced out of the league).

Basically, in a perfect world, Army would have been gone at least 6 years ago and replaced with someone better. However, in the real world 95% of his likely replacements in that timeframe would have worse than him anyway. He's made several really great moves lately which - just like the Cup win - made everyone forget all the years of bad moves he made leading up to those points.

I really hope Steen is better than Army and stays around a long time if he is.

So you're doubling down on being wrong. Ballsy.

Armstrong isn't perfect but I can't see how anyone is still on the fire Army train. Pretty hard to justify that opinion anymore.

 

[Reality Czech]

Broberg is far more defensively responsible than Josi (and presumably Werenski, but I don't watch CBJ much). What I was getting at is he has shown flashes of elite offense, times where he blows by opponent and drives the net. He would be freed to do more of that, as Josi does, playing deep in O zone if he had a partner he could rely upon to cover for him. With Faulk he had to limit how daring he could be. That is where I see a stronger defensive partner can really open up broberg offense. If we could find that without breaking up fowler/parayko- who complement each other amazingly- we would have darn good top 4d.

Broberg far better defensively than Josi? Wow, that's a stretch.

I know it's trendy to blame everything on Faulk, but I think it's a cop out to claim Faulk held him back. He had plenty of leeway to run. I think Faulk actually outperformed Bro late in the year after the Parayko injury. He logged the most minutes during our winning streak so Faulk must have been doing something right.

I know we always have to bash and praise the same players all the time around here, but Broberg looked a lot more ordinary after his injury. I hope he can build on this year and find more consistency next year but let's pump the brakes on comparing him to a future HOFer like Josi.

 

[ArenaRat]

Josi and werenski each played best hockey of their career paired with him. If we think he is guy who can unlock broberg offensive potential, I’d pay good but for that. Otherwise, he’s just a guy. Maybe 4x4? 5x5 feels rich.

Maybe, but whenever I see 4x4 I think Jay McKee... followed closely by Nick Leddy... so, no thank you lol

 

[Pizza!Pizza!]

So you're doubling down on being wrong. Ballsy.

Armstrong isn't perfect but I can't see how anyone is still on the fire Army train. Pretty hard to justify that opinion anymore.

triple down. one good season doesnt undo his record for me. unless Army wows me again this offseason, Im inclined to believe last year was a fluke,

 

[Louie the Blue]

triple down. one good season doesnt undo his record for me. unless Army wows me again this offseason, Im inclined to believe last year was a fluke,

Every GM is flawed as no team has ever gone 82-0.

Armstrong has made some brutal mistakes and has been criticized (most of it warranted) for said moves. His mistakes are fewer than what he’s gotten right as well as generally have not impacted the team long term.


However, he’s been the head guy for almost 15 years and has routinely done more good than bad. I do not think there are many people who have comparable positions to him in the league or in the wings that are better than him. To say he is mediocre is misleading.

 

[SirPaste]

I wanted him gone in 2019. after the Cup run I stopped complaining for a bit, but I still think he's a flawed GM overall and want someone new at the helm. The problem with mediocre GMs (like Yzerman, who I think is worse than Army) is that even if their mistakes outweigh or outnumber their wins....firing them almost always guarantees you end up with someone worse. Almost all NHL GMs are bad at their jobs, but since its a good ol' boys club they just keep playing musical chairs and there is rarely any new blood (and when there is, you end up with Pejorative Slurs like the guy from the Coyotes that got forced out of the league).

Basically, in a perfect world, Army would have been gone at least 6 years ago and replaced with someone better. However, in the real world 95% of his likely replacements in that timeframe would have worse than him anyway. He's made several really great moves lately which - just like the Cup win - made everyone forget all the years of bad moves he made leading up to those points.

I really hope Steen is better than Army and stays around a long time if he is.

Just to be clear, in your perfect world, Army would have been fired right after winning the teams first ever Stanley Cup?

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Broberg far better defensively than Josi? Wow, that's a stretch.

I know it's trendy to blame everything on Faulk, but I think it's a cop out to claim Faulk held him back. He had plenty of leeway to run. I think Faulk actually outperformed Bro late in the year after the Parayko injury. He logged the most minutes during our winning streak so Faulk must have been doing something right.

I know we always have to bash and praise the same players all the time around here, but Broberg looked a lot more ordinary after his injury. I hope he can build on this year and find more consistency next year but let's pump the brakes on comparing him to a future HOFer like Josi.

Josi is going to hold bc of his offense. He is good defensively. He excels on offensive zone. He doesn’t have brobergs skating, size, or defensive stick.