Playoff Analysis and Future Thoughts

[BadgersandBlues]

Hey everyone. I used to do this a lot back in the day when we had an up and coming core that was looking to break through and win a Cup, and then we did win it, so I stopped (Amongst other reasons). I basically touch on all aspects of the organization from top to bottom, give my opinion using a mix of metrics (Almost always pulled from Natural Stat Trick, and unless otherwise stated, only taking into account the Montgomery time period) as well as eye test, and try my best to predict what needs to happen for us to take the next step and win the Cup! This is a loooooong thread, but that's mainly b/c I haven't really touched on each of these guys - moving forward it'll probably be much more concise. I know we have a lot of different threads that this could probably fit under, but I write my own so that I can more easily find my prior thoughts year over year (Plus this thing is a bear). OK, so without further ado, let's hop to it.

Ownership​

As I said, I like to start at the top. I think Tom Stillman is one of the best owners in sports overall, and I like to take a minute to tip my cap to him. This man has brought us our only Cup, and he clearly believes the Blues are a civic treasure. He has never, ever, once wavered in his willingness to invest in this franchise, even during down periods. Other owners might have scoffed at paying guys like Holloway and Broberg above market rates during a re-whatever, and he didn't blink. We are all lucky to have this man.

GM
​

Huh that's weird. You guys hear that? Nope? Yea, that's because the Fire Armstrong crowd has been awwwwwful quiet recently. As well they should be - after fleecing Edmonton out of two now-core players in Holloway and Broberg, bringing in a guy who played like a true Franchise D for peanuts in Fowler, and hiring one of the best coaches in the NHL, along with showing that our amateur scouting team is still as strong as ever with the recent success of Bolduc, Snuggy, Tucker, and a plethora of prospects at the WJC/AHL, Doug Armstrong is reminding everyone that he still has plenty of zip on his fastball. I think this off-season has the potential to have massive ramifications for the future of this franchise. We have cap space, we have attractive assets, and we have fairly defined needs. We laid a lot of potential trade groundwork in the lead up to the Deadline as we weren't sure which direction the club was going to go. The UFA class actually has some interesting players for the first time in forever, and a lot of other teams that sync up well with our needs are facing crossroads, such as LA, Seattle, and both New York clubs. I'm excited and hopeful that Armstrong has one or two more rabbits to pull and really set us up for the next decade of thrilling, successful Blues' hockey, then riding off into the sunset Indiana Jones style (Yes I know he's staying as President, but allow me the metaphor).

Coach
​

While there are some nits I'd pick about player usage and man down situations, in the big picture, Jim Montgomery was nothing short of a revelation this season. After two years of abysmal 5v5 play under two different head coaches, where we ranked in the bottom 5-7 in almost every relevant category, (And more importantly, putting me to f***ing sleep) Montgomery walked in and took us into the top half of the league in GF%, xGF%, and HDCF%. Under Monty we had the second best GF%, with only the Jets ahead of us. We had the 3rd highest GF/60 and the 4th best GA/60 under Montgomery. Our Powerplay went from 16.7% (25th in the league) under Bannister to 23.8% (12th) under Montgomery. The one area we struggled, our Achillies Heel if you would, was man down situations.

There was a pretty long stretch there under Monty (About 41 games from his hire until Parayko's injury) where we had legitimately the worst PK in the history of the NHL (67.4%, record is 68.2%). Funny enough our PK went from "Worst PK in NHL history" to the best PK in the league (88.2%) over the 17 games that Parayko missed (As an author, Memento will have to give us all a refresher, but I believe this is called Foreshadowing). Then there's the obvious 6v5 issue that was present through much of the regular season, as well as the backbreakers in G7 of the playoffs. According to Army today, we were the only team to give up more 6v5 goals against then score. Yikes. I attribute a lot of this to Monty shortening his bench far too much far too quickly and gassing out our players. I'll get into this more as we move into the player sections, but according to basically every public model available, of lines that played at least 150 5v5 minutes, the Joseph-Sunny-Bolduc line had the best xGA/60 on the entire team, coming in 11th overall in the NHL and sandwiched between the Verhaeghe-Barkov-Reinhart line (For those of you playing at home, that's the line with two Selke finalists on it) and the Jarvis-Aho-Blake line. Now obviously those lines probably had tougher deployment, but it's not like JSB were a bunch of slouches defensively. How many shifts did that line have together after the 15 minute mark in the third period of Game 7? Zero. Bolduc didn't see the ice at all after the 15 minute mark, Joseph got two shifts, and Sunny was basically out there as a backup faceoff guy before rushing to get off the ice. Monty needs to trust his players more, and stop relying on the WTF line (Which, funny enough, was our second WORST regular line in terms of xGA/60.) I also think a lot of this is due to the style Monty coaches, which is far too conservative for my taste in 6v5 situations. I'd rather we pressure teams way harder and smash the dagger in vs. sit back and hope nothing gets through. I was heartened to hear Armstrong put an emphasis on it in the presser today, as Monty needs to fix this if we want to go further in the playoffs. Still super pumped about his hire though, and believe he's the right guy to lead us to the promised land.

Forwards
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Robert Thomas - Easily our best player and franchise pillar. The center beam that holds up the house as some posters used to call AP. I'm not sure if he's a top 10 C in the league, but he's -right- outside it if not. When accounting for his production and contract, there's almost no one in the league I'd move him for. We should feel very comfortable putting him down for 25 goals, 60 assists, and stellar defensive play for the next 5-7 years, with the potential for even more if one of our better shooters like Snuggy or Bolduc find chemistry with him. I think he had a bit of a rough playoffs, but this was his first time as "The guy," and all things considered he showed well. We can 100% build a Cup contender around him. Bonus fun fact - From Nov. 24th (The day we hired Monty) until the end of the season, of players who had at least 100 minutes 5v5, Thomas had the 3rd best p/60 5v5 in the entire league. Better then McDavid, Mackinnon, Drai, and Kucherov. He's a f***ing gem.

Jordan Kyrou - The second best offensive player on this team. 35 goals/35 assists is his floor moving forward and might only get higher as we put more talent around him. Made incredible strides defensively this year and found chemistry with Holloway. He's top 25 in goal scoring over the last three years, scoring two less the Kyle Conner and seven less the Kucherov. He's top 50 in points, with his most frequent linemate the corpse of Brayden Schenn. He was by far our best 5v5 g/60 at 1.45 - next best was Holloway at 1.12, a fairly massive dropoff. He had a rough playoffs from a production perspective, but he did lead the team in SC and HDSC. This was also his first time in the playoffs as "The guy," and while I wouldn't say he acquitted himself as well as Thomas, I would also say this - the Jets were probably the worst matchup for Kyrou in the entire league, sans maybe the Panthers. I know that might not mean much to some, but I've watched almost every playoff game of every series up to this point, and I cannot begin to describe how less physical every other series was compared to ours. Had we played any other Western Conference team, I think we'd be having a much different conversation around Kyrou right now. He needs to up his battle level because we will eventually have to beat a team like the Jets if we want to win a Cup, but I believe he can do it.

I know there's a lot of chatter around trading him, especially before his NTC kicks in. I am not completely opposed to trading him, especially if we could replace him with Marner (Which I think is a pipe dream). If we are trading Kyrou, it's gotta be for a Center or RHD that's in our core age group, locked up long term, and is a top player at his position. Basically guys like Larkin, Fox, or McAvoy. I'm not interested in a project or a prospect if we're moving on from Kyrou. And abso-f***ing-loutly no to Brady. There's no reason to trade our best chip for a slight upgrade with a much worse contract. Kyrou's contract is going to age very well and the flexibility it provides will pay dividends down the road.

Dylan Holloway - Were you guys expecting that? Because I was NOT expecting that. Ho-ly. Offensively gifted with a non-stop motor. If we're drawing comparisons to our Cup team, Thomas is our new ROR, Kyrou is our new Tarasenko, and Holloway is 100% our new Schwartz, and maybe a better one to boot. (We can quibble about how those comparisons really match up, but I think they all fit those roles pretty well) He lead the team in xGF%, HDCF%, and was second in GF% and p/60 at 5v5. He was a PPG player under Montgomery, and it's an absolute shame he didn't get to play in these playoffs at all. I could write another five paragraphs on how fun it was to watch this kid play, and I am so happy we stole him from Edmonton, a franchise I do not respect at all.

Pavel Buchnevich - The reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated. After moving back to winger full time, Buch was pacing for a 23 goal, 67 point season, with a positive xGF% at 5v5 while drawing some of the hardest defensive assignments in the entire league. He plays in all situations, works well with Thomas (He creates so much space for Thomas to operate), and is a solid all around top 6 option. I wouldn't have been mad if we had traded him to say Vancouver for Willander+ last year, but that ship has sailed. I think he's going to be plenty good for the next 2-3 years, and should gracefully age into a middle six role as guys like Neighbors, Bolduc, Snuggy, and Stenberg hopefully move up. I'd have liked to see more production from him during the playoffs, but frankly, Snuggy/whomever we had with Buch/Thomas wasn't really ready for a top line role at the moment. The Buch-Thomas-Kyrou line was actually outstanding from an xGF% perspective in G7, but it was too little too late at that point.

Brayden Schenn - Schenn had a nice bounce back year numbers wise, but was buoyed by playing with our two best wingers for most of the season. His xGF% with Kyrou and Holloway was over 55%, but without those two guys, it plummeted to under 38%.......big yikes. I think everyone on here knows that he needs to get pushed down the lineup, at least to 3C, and imo, all the way down to 4C if we can manage it. I know that it's a tough nut to find two top/middle 6 Centers, but I really don't think Schenn is even capable of 3C play without dynamic talent on his wings, and unless we're willing to balance the lines a bit by breaking up Kyrou and Holloway, I just don't see how it can work. Without breaking those two up, our most likely 3W's are some combo of Neighbors, Bolduc, and Snuggerud. None of those guys really excel with the puck on their stick at this point of their development, and Neighbors and Snuggy are currently our two worst defensive wingers, with Schenn grading out as our worst defensive Center. As I said earlier, our third line of Joseph-Sunny-Bolduc was one of the best overall defensive lines in the league this year - to go from that to Neighbors-Schenn-Snuggy looks pretty painful. I think we can tread water for a bit early on, but we need to push Schenn down to the Steen role ASAP if we have any real hope of success in the playoffs.

Jake Neighbors - After a breakout campaign last season, I was excited to see Neighbors come into this season and show some improvement in at least one aspect of his game. For the first 50-55 games, I was very underwhelmed. He hadn't seemed to really grow his game in any meaningful way over the summer - footspeed, puck skills, shot, defensive acumen, etc. He was easily the player I least wanted to see leading an odd-man rush, especially a 3 on 2, as he would continually look lost upon zone entry and generally make a bad pass to no one in particular or to the opposing team. Lucky, development isn't linear, and in the last 20-25 games or so, he really started to turn a corner. His passing became much better, his puck decisions became much better, and he showed that he could potentially become a 25/25 type guy.

I think his playoffs was a bit of a mixed bag, but still fairly positive for a kid getting his first taste of NHL playoff action. He made some soft plays in the D-zone that hurt us, and he took some undisciplined penalties that I would mark down as youthful exuberance. He also needs to learn to get to the net front faster in the playoffs, as there were multiple times that some loose change dropped in front of the crease and he wasn't close/fast enough to cash in. If I have one wish for him this off-season, it's to continue to improve on the defensive side of the puck. I'd love it if we could turn him into a PKer at some point, as Joseph and Sunny are probably not every night starters moving forward and we need someone to replace them on the PK. I'm not sure what his true ceiling is, but if his floor is a 20/20 guy, that's pretty solid.

Zach Bolduc - If anyone has paid attention to these boards over the last couple of months, then you know I'm a massive Zach Bolduc truther. He's got a good frame, he skates well, and has a cannon for a shot. He has no issue getting greasy and laid some of the biggest f***ing hits of the season. He's also pretty defensively responsible, with the second best xGA/60 on the entire team, while not getting sheltered much at all with a Ozone faceoff rate just above 50%. I have really no idea what Monty was doing with this kid. I know he was a rookie, but he had the second best xGF% on the entire team, matched Holloway in g/60 and iHDSC/60, and all this with Sunny and Joseph as his most often linemates. He had a sparkling xGF% in limited time with either Holloway or Thomas (Both above 63% xGF%, and didn't overlap with both at the same time), so playing him with better players didn't sewer anyone. On a per/60 basis, he was one of the top 5 highest scoring rookies, and scored goals at a better rate then anyone other then Mitchkov. I think we really underutilized him most of this season to our detriment, and I hope that next year Monty gives him more of an opportunity.

His playoffs was also a bit of a mixed bag. He took a couple of dumb, DUMB penalties early in the series, letting his emotions get the better of him and retaliating in stupid spots. He also looked a bit out of sorts in the first few games 5v5. However, as the series went on, he improved dramatically. He drew two penalties while instigating, instead of retaliating, and in game 6 he had a .6 xGF with a zero! xGA (For an xGF% of 100%!!!). In game 7 he had a xGF of .57 and an xGA of .28, for an xGF% of 67.21, third best on the team. Again, all this with Sunny and Joseph as his linemates.

If I have one thing that I'd like to see him work on this off-season, it's getting more comfortable with the puck on his stick. There were a lot of times this season where he looked a bit lost in transition, or if he got the puck somewhat outside our regular structure. We need more play drivers on this team, and I'd love to see him develop into one. Then again, if he turns into a 40 goal guy I won't really f***ing care lol.

Jimmy Snuggerud - We had only a limited viewing of Snuggy, but I was extremely impressed by what I saw. I'm still in shock that anyone was questioning his skating at this point - it looked completely fine to me, if anything he already looks like one of our better skaters. His shot is as advertised. That whistler he sent over Helly's blocker was all world. His passing was also NHL caliber, and he seemed to find some chemistry with Neighbors in the little time they played together, especially in transition. Clearly, he has defensive deficencies, and is in real need of gaining some muscle/strength. I'm very excited to see this kid next season, I think the sky is the limit for him. He looks every bit the guy who could potentially become a multi-faceted gamebreaking offensive player.

Dalibor Dvorsky - We only saw two games from Dalibor this season, but that's OK, b/c he is clearly not ready. His skating is a real concern, he looks like a baby fawn trying to walk for the first time (Yes I'm stealing that line again). His puck skills, IQ, and shot will play at this level I think, but man he needs to get his skating figured out pronto.

Ok in an effort to not make this post any longer then it's already becoming, I'm going to lump all the other bottom 6 guys together and simply say, WTF was solid, Sunny is pretty cooked, and Joseph I think was better then most believed but made braindead plays at the worst time. In a perfect world, we bring back Faksa for less and move Sunny to wing on the 4th line or the pressbox, with Joseph and Tex fighting for the 14th forward spot. On to the Defense.

Defenseman
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Cam Fowler - Hey does anyone else have a slightly used defenseman they'd like to trade us for nothing that will suddenly turn into a top 10 caliber guy? Cuz that would be super. Wow and I mean WOW did Fowler have an exceptional season once he got here. He scored at a 58 point pace, had the lowest xGA/60 of all D-men on our roster, all while playing against the toughest matchups and getting an Ozone faceoff rate of under 45%. Then he went on and scored 10 points in 7 playoff games and was the highest xGF% of any player on our roster. Take a bow sir, you played out of this world for us this season.

Philip Broberg - I'm still a bit in awe of his play this year. I mean I know I said it with Holloway, but I feel it bears repeating here - did ANYONE see this coming? This is a guy that had played 81 games over three seasons and had averaged less then 13 minutes a game. He comes here, plays 20:30 a game over 68 games and might be one of the top 5-10 best defensive defenseman on the season, all while chipping in almost 30 points. I am about as high on him as I have been on a Blues defenseman in the last 10-15 years. His skating is absurd, his positioning and stick work is fairly advanced from a guy with only 81 NHL games to his name prior to this year - and his offense looks like it's only a matter of time. He's already a solid #2, and if he can find another level offensively, he's going to come a bona-fide top 10 guy. Thanks again Edmonton, you f***ing losers.

Colton Parayko - Had a great season. Really can't argue that. But he's not the guy who can be the #1D and lead us to playoff success. He simply cannot transition the puck up the ice with consistency against a reasonable forecheck. Good news is, now he doesn't have to be, with Broberg and Fowler here. I still think he sucks on the PK, and I could go down that road a bit more (I already mentioned it a bit earlier up) but I'm running out of steam on this and kinda just want to finish lol. I'm sure someone will tell me I'm stupid and after I get some sleep I'll bust out all the stats on why he blows, but until then, just trust me bro Glad he's a Blue, but I always feel like I'm wanting more from the guy.

Justin Faulk - I think he's been beat up enough on these boards over the last couple of days, so I'm not going to pile on too much. Suffice to say he's clearly the weak link in our top 4. I think he'd be fine down on the third pair and on the PP2, but we need to find a guy to take his place in the top 4. The good news is that with Broberg's ascension, we could look for a guy with a slanted tool kit instead of a well rounded tool kit - what I mean by that is, I think we could get a mainly offensive guy to play in the top 4 (Think Shatty or like Ghost) and let Broberg cover for those deficiencies - or we could get a really solid defensive guy and hope that Broberg throws off the reins and goes bonkers on offense. I think we tried to kinda split the difference with Faulk, and he's just not capable of it anymore.

Leddy, Suter, and Tucker - I think Suter had a solid season, but for the second or maybe third year in a row, he couldn't handle the speed as the intensity ramps up in the playoffs. We should look at him as defensive depth, not a regular moving forward. Leddy is straight up cooked, he looks like he can barely skate anymore. Get rid of him for anything you possibly can. Tucker is fine, getting a 7th rounder to play NHL games at all is cool. I think we really need to rebuild the entire third pair though.

Goaltending
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Jordan Binnington - Glad to see Binner get his flowers at the 4 Nations. He's been an absolute beaut for us over the last 6-7 years. He didn't have the best regular season, especially compared to last year but he did enough to get us in and give us every chance to win. He deserved a better outcome in that Game 7.

Joel Hofer - I think Hofer had a solid season. Goaltending is voodoo, and he's good enough as a backup for now.

Summary
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Overall this was a very positive year for the franchise. We incorporated a lot of young, new players, gave them bigger roles then before, and watched them mostly succeed. We had a franchise long winning streak, and we 100% should have beat the President's Trophy winners. Moving forward, I think there are a lot of directions we could go. We clearly need a 2C, and maybe even a 3C. While I'd like to upgrade on Faulk, I think Center(s) is the bigger priority. We cannot go into next season with Sunny as a full time regular, especially down the middle. I think one team we should reach out to is Seattle. They have three Centers already in Beniers, Wright, and Catton, and there's a good chance they will be in a position to draft another at #8 this year. We have a plethora of wingers and D prospects - could we work something out?

Another potential is Marner. Now I know it's a pipe dream, but IF we could get Marner to sign here, that would make me feel a lot more comfortable about using Kyrou as trade bait. We sign Marner then trade Kyrou for Larkin or one of the Seattle Centers? What about for a stud young RHD? I think the targets are well established by now - Dobson, Nemec, Clarke, Morrow, and Willander are the usual suspects. I wouldn't trade Kyrou straight up for any of them, but they could be the centerpieces of the deal.

Finally, with the cap going up, we are in a position to offer one of the UFA Centers a big AAV, short(er) term deal. Would Tavares come here for a 2 year 10-12M AAV contract? How about Duchene? I want to stay far away from Bennett. I think unless we can upgrade on Schenn at both 2C AND 3C though, it would probably behoove us to split up Holloway and Kyrou. I am operating under the assumption that Dvo is not ready next year, which I think is fair, unless his skating takes a massive jump (Unlikely) We could run:

Buch-Thomas-Kyrou
Neighbors-Tavares-Snuggy
Holloway-Schenn-Bolduc
Toro-Faksa-Sunny/Walker
Joseph

I really really don't want to see a Neighbors-Schenn-Snuggy/Bolduc line, that line will struggle to generate AND defend. I don't think Snuggy is ready for top line deployment, as we use Thomas too much as a matchup. I think Bolduc slots well into that spot, but it seems that Monty disagrees, and until I see otherwise, I'll operate under the assumption it won't happen. Bolduc had success with Holloway and Sunny, so I'm guessing Schenn can fill that role reasonably well. If I had my druthers though, I think I'd setup our lines like this:

Buch-Thomas-Bolduc
Holloway-Schenn-Kyrou
Neighbors-Tavares-Snuggy

Anyway, I think I've been writing this for going on like 5 hours now, and I need to pass out. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk, and as always, Flame On

 

[Reality Czech]

Stopped reading when you mentioned "the corpse of Brayden Schenn." The dude is 33 and put up 50 points this year. Winnipeg's 2C had 38 points for comparison.

I get the urge to upgrade 2C and support that but the amount of disrespect Schenn gets is kind of asinine. He's put his heart into this team ever since he's got here and some fans are so eager to just throw him on the scrap heap. 4C really?

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Hey everyone. I used to do this a lot back in the day when we had an up and coming core that was looking to break through and win a Cup, and then we did win it, so I stopped (Amongst other reasons). I basically touch on all aspects of the organization from top to bottom, give my opinion using a mix of metrics (Almost always pulled from Natural Stat Trick, and unless otherwise stated, only taking into account the Montgomery time period) as well as eye test, and try my best to predict what needs to happen for us to take the next step and win the Cup! This is a loooooong thread, but that's mainly b/c I haven't really touched on each of these guys - moving forward it'll probably be much more concise. I know we have a lot of different threads that this could probably fit under, but I write my own so that I can more easily find my prior thoughts year over year (Plus this thing is a bear). OK, so without further ado, let's hop to it.

Ownership​

As I said, I like to start at the top. I think Tom Stillman is one of the best owners in sports overall, and I like to take a minute to tip my cap to him. This man has brought us our only Cup, and he clearly believes the Blues are a civic treasure. He has never, ever, once wavered in his willingness to invest in this franchise, even during down periods. Other owners might have scoffed at paying guys like Holloway and Broberg above market rates during a re-whatever, and he didn't blink. We are all lucky to have this man.

GM
​

Huh that's weird. You guys hear that? Nope? Yea, that's because the Fire Armstrong crowd has been awwwwwful quiet recently. As well they should be - after fleecing Edmonton out of two now-core players in Holloway and Broberg, bringing in a guy who played like a true Franchise D for peanuts in Fowler, and hiring one of the best coaches in the NHL, along with showing that our amateur scouting team is still as strong as ever with the recent success of Bolduc, Snuggy, Tucker, and a plethora of prospects at the WJC/AHL, Doug Armstrong is reminding everyone that he still has plenty of zip on his fastball. I think this off-season has the potential to have massive ramifications for the future of this franchise. We have cap space, we have attractive assets, and we have fairly defined needs. We laid a lot of potential trade groundwork in the lead up to the Deadline as we weren't sure which direction the club was going to go. The UFA class actually has some interesting players for the first time in forever, and a lot of other teams that sync up well with our needs are facing crossroads, such as LA, Seattle, and both New York clubs. I'm excited and hopeful that Armstrong has one or two more rabbits to pull and really set us up for the next decade of thrilling, successful Blues' hockey, then riding off into the sunset Indiana Jones style (Yes I know he's staying as President, but allow me the metaphor).

Coach
​

While there are some nits I'd pick about player usage and man down situations, in the big picture, Jim Montgomery was nothing short of a revelation this season. After two years of abysmal 5v5 play under two different head coaches, where we ranked in the bottom 5-7 in almost every relevant category, (And more importantly, putting me to f***ing sleep) Montgomery walked in and took us into the top half of the league in GF%, xGF%, and HDCF%. Under Monty we had the second best GF%, with only the Jets ahead of us. We had the 3rd highest GF/60 and the 4th best GA/60 under Montgomery. Our Powerplay went from 16.7% (25th in the league) under Bannister to 23.8% (12th) under Montgomery. The one area we struggled, our Achillies Heel if you would, was man down situations.

There was a pretty long stretch there under Monty (About 41 games from his hire until Parayko's injury) where we had legitimately the worst PK in the history of the NHL (67.4%, record is 68.2%). Funny enough our PK went from "Worst PK in NHL history" to the best PK in the league (88.2%) over the 17 games that Parayko missed (As an author, Memento will have to give us all a refresher, but I believe this is called Foreshadowing). Then there's the obvious 6v5 issue that was present through much of the regular season, as well as the backbreakers in G7 of the playoffs. According to Army today, we were the only team to give up more 6v5 goals against then score. Yikes. I attribute a lot of this to Monty shortening his bench far too much far too quickly and gassing out our players. I'll get into this more as we move into the player sections, but according to basically every public model available, of lines that played at least 150 5v5 minutes, the Joseph-Sunny-Bolduc line had the best xGA/60 on the entire team, coming in 11th overall in the NHL and sandwiched between the Verhaeghe-Barkov-Reinhart line (For those of you playing at home, that's the line with two Selke finalists on it) and the Jarvis-Aho-Blake line. Now obviously those lines probably had tougher deployment, but it's not like JSB were a bunch of slouches defensively. How many shifts did that line have together after the 15 minute mark in the third period of Game 7? Zero. Bolduc didn't see the ice at all after the 15 minute mark, Joseph got two shifts, and Sunny was basically out there as a backup faceoff guy before rushing to get off the ice. Monty needs to trust his players more, and stop relying on the WTF line (Which, funny enough, was our second WORST regular line in terms of xGA/60.) I also think a lot of this is due to the style Monty coaches, which is far too conservative for my taste in 6v5 situations. I'd rather we pressure teams way harder and smash the dagger in vs. sit back and hope nothing gets through. I was heartened to hear Armstrong put an emphasis on it in the presser today, as Monty needs to fix this if we want to go further in the playoffs. Still super pumped about his hire though, and believe he's the right guy to lead us to the promised land.

Forwards
​

Robert Thomas - Easily our best player and franchise pillar. The center beam that holds up the house as some posters used to call AP. I'm not sure if he's a top 10 C in the league, but he's -right- outside it if not. When accounting for his production and contract, there's almost no one in the league I'd move him for. We should feel very comfortable putting him down for 25 goals, 60 assists, and stellar defensive play for the next 5-7 years, with the potential for even more if one of our better shooters like Snuggy or Bolduc find chemistry with him. I think he had a bit of a rough playoffs, but this was his first time as "The guy," and all things considered he showed well. We can 100% build a Cup contender around him. Bonus fun fact - From Nov. 24th (The day we hired Monty) until the end of the season, of players who had at least 100 minutes 5v5, Thomas had the 3rd best p/60 5v5 in the entire league. Better then McDavid, Mackinnon, Drai, and Kucherov. He's a f***ing gem.

Jordan Kyrou - The second best offensive player on this team. 35 goals/35 assists is his floor moving forward and might only get higher as we put more talent around him. Made incredible strides defensively this year and found chemistry with Holloway. He's top 25 in goal scoring over the last three years, scoring two less the Kyle Conner and seven less the Kucherov. He's top 50 in points, with his most frequent linemate the corpse of Brayden Schenn. He was by far our best 5v5 g/60 at 1.45 - next best was Holloway at 1.12, a fairly massive dropoff. He had a rough playoffs from a production perspective, but he did lead the team in SC and HDSC. This was also his first time in the playoffs as "The guy," and while I wouldn't say he acquitted himself as well as Thomas, I would also say this - the Jets were probably the worst matchup for Kyrou in the entire league, sans maybe the Panthers. I know that might not mean much to some, but I've watched almost every playoff game of every series up to this point, and I cannot begin to describe how less physical every other series was compared to ours. Had we played any other Western Conference team, I think we'd be having a much different conversation around Kyrou right now. He needs to up his battle level because we will eventually have to beat a team like the Jets if we want to win a Cup, but I believe he can do it.

I know there's a lot of chatter around trading him, especially before his NTC kicks in. I am not completely opposed to trading him, especially if we could replace him with Marner (Which I think is a pipe dream). If we are trading Kyrou, it's gotta be for a Center or RHD that's in our core age group, locked up long term, and is a top player at his position. Basically guys like Larkin, Fox, or McAvoy. I'm not interested in a project or a prospect if we're moving on from Kyrou. And abso-f***ing-loutly no to Brady. There's no reason to trade our best chip for a slight upgrade with a much worse contract. Kyrou's contract is going to age very well and the flexibility it provides will pay dividends down the road.

Dylan Holloway - Were you guys expecting that? Because I was NOT expecting that. Ho-ly. Offensively gifted with a non-stop motor. If we're drawing comparisons to our Cup team, Thomas is our new ROR, Kyrou is our new Tarasenko, and Holloway is 100% our new Schwartz, and maybe a better one to boot. (We can quibble about how those comparisons really match up, but I think they all fit those roles pretty well) He lead the team in xGF%, HDCF%, and was second in GF% and p/60 at 5v5. He was a PPG player under Montgomery, and it's an absolute shame he didn't get to play in these playoffs at all. I could write another five paragraphs on how fun it was to watch this kid play, and I am so happy we stole him from Edmonton, a franchise I do not respect at all.

Pavel Buchnevich - The reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated. After moving back to winger full time, Buch was pacing for a 23 goal, 67 point season, with a positive xGF% at 5v5 while drawing some of the hardest defensive assignments in the entire league. He plays in all situations, works well with Thomas (He creates so much space for Thomas to operate), and is a solid all around top 6 option. I wouldn't have been mad if we had traded him to say Vancouver for Willander+ last year, but that ship has sailed. I think he's going to be plenty good for the next 2-3 years, and should gracefully age into a middle six role as guys like Neighbors, Bolduc, Snuggy, and Stenberg hopefully move up. I'd have liked to see more production from him during the playoffs, but frankly, Snuggy/whomever we had with Buch/Thomas wasn't really ready for a top line role at the moment. The Buch-Thomas-Kyrou line was actually outstanding from an xGF% perspective in G7, but it was too little too late at that point.

Brayden Schenn - Schenn had a nice bounce back year numbers wise, but was buoyed by playing with our two best wingers for most of the season. His xGF% with Kyrou and Holloway was over 55%, but without those two guys, it plummeted to under 38%.......big yikes. I think everyone on here knows that he needs to get pushed down the lineup, at least to 3C, and imo, all the way down to 4C if we can manage it. I know that it's a tough nut to find two top/middle 6 Centers, but I really don't think Schenn is even capable of 3C play without dynamic talent on his wings, and unless we're willing to balance the lines a bit by breaking up Kyrou and Holloway, I just don't see how it can work. Without breaking those two up, our most likely 3W's are some combo of Neighbors, Bolduc, and Snuggerud. None of those guys really excel with the puck on their stick at this point of their development, and Neighbors and Snuggy are currently our two worst defensive wingers, with Schenn grading out as our worst defensive Center. As I said earlier, our third line of Joseph-Sunny-Bolduc was one of the best overall defensive lines in the league this year - to go from that to Neighbors-Schenn-Snuggy looks pretty painful. I think we can tread water for a bit early on, but we need to push Schenn down to the Steen role ASAP if we have any real hope of success in the playoffs.

Jake Neighbors - After a breakout campaign last season, I was excited to see Neighbors come into this season and show some improvement in at least one aspect of his game. For the first 50-55 games, I was very underwhelmed. He hadn't seemed to really grow his game in any meaningful way over the summer - footspeed, puck skills, shot, defensive acumen, etc. He was easily the player I least wanted to see leading an odd-man rush, especially a 3 on 2, as he would continually look lost upon zone entry and generally make a bad pass to no one in particular or to the opposing team. Lucky, development isn't linear, and in the last 20-25 games or so, he really started to turn a corner. His passing became much better, his puck decisions became much better, and he showed that he could potentially become a 25/25 type guy.

I think his playoffs was a bit of a mixed bag, but still fairly positive for a kid getting his first taste of NHL playoff action. He made some soft plays in the D-zone that hurt us, and he took some undisciplined penalties that I would mark down as youthful exuberance. He also needs to learn to get to the net front faster in the playoffs, as there were multiple times that some loose change dropped in front of the crease and he wasn't close/fast enough to cash in. If I have one wish for him this off-season, it's to continue to improve on the defensive side of the puck. I'd love it if we could turn him into a PKer at some point, as Joseph and Sunny are probably not every night starters moving forward and we need someone to replace them on the PK. I'm not sure what his true ceiling is, but if his floor is a 20/20 guy, that's pretty solid.

Zach Bolduc - If anyone has paid attention to these boards over the last couple of months, then you know I'm a massive Zach Bolduc truther. He's got a good frame, he skates well, and has a cannon for a shot. He has no issue getting greasy and laid some of the biggest f***ing hits of the season. He's also pretty defensively responsible, with the second best xGA/60 on the entire team, while not getting sheltered much at all with a Ozone faceoff rate just above 50%. I have really no idea what Monty was doing with this kid. I know he was a rookie, but he had the second best xGF% on the entire team, matched Holloway in g/60 and iHDSC/60, and all this with Sunny and Joseph as his most often linemates. He had a sparkling xGF% in limited time with either Holloway or Thomas (Both above 63% xGF%, and didn't overlap with both at the same time), so playing him with better players didn't sewer anyone. On a per/60 basis, he was one of the top 5 highest scoring rookies, and scored goals at a better rate then anyone other then Mitchkov. I think we really underutilized him most of this season to our detriment, and I hope that next year Monty gives him more of an opportunity.

His playoffs was also a bit of a mixed bag. He took a couple of dumb, DUMB penalties early in the series, letting his emotions get the better of him and retaliating in stupid spots. He also looked a bit out of sorts in the first few games 5v5. However, as the series went on, he improved dramatically. He drew two penalties while instigating, instead of retaliating, and in game 6 he had a .6 xGF with a zero! xGA (For an xGF% of 100%!!!). In game 7 he had a xGF of .57 and an xGA of .28, for an xGF% of 67.21, third best on the team. Again, all this with Sunny and Joseph as his linemates.

If I have one thing that I'd like to see him work on this off-season, it's getting more comfortable with the puck on his stick. There were a lot of times this season where he looked a bit lost in transition, or if he got the puck somewhat outside our regular structure. We need more play drivers on this team, and I'd love to see him develop into one. Then again, if he turns into a 40 goal guy I won't really f***ing care lol.

Jimmy Snuggerud - We had only a limited viewing of Snuggy, but I was extremely impressed by what I saw. I'm still in shock that anyone was questioning his skating at this point - it looked completely fine to me, if anything he already looks like one of our better skaters. His shot is as advertised. That whistler he sent over Helly's blocker was all world. His passing was also NHL caliber, and he seemed to find some chemistry with Neighbors in the little time they played together, especially in transition. Clearly, he has defensive deficencies, and is in real need of gaining some muscle/strength. I'm very excited to see this kid next season, I think the sky is the limit for him. He looks every bit the guy who could potentially become a multi-faceted gamebreaking offensive player.

Dalibor Dvorsky - We only saw two games from Dalibor this season, but that's OK, b/c he is clearly not ready. His skating is a real concern, he looks like a baby fawn trying to walk for the first time (Yes I'm stealing that line again). His puck skills, IQ, and shot will play at this level I think, but man he needs to get his skating figured out pronto.

Ok in an effort to not make this post any longer then it's already becoming, I'm going to lump all the other bottom 6 guys together and simply say, WTF was solid, Sunny is pretty cooked, and Joseph I think was better then most believed but made braindead plays at the worst time. In a perfect world, we bring back Faksa for less and move Sunny to wing on the 4th line or the pressbox, with Joseph and Tex fighting for the 14th forward spot. On to the Defense.

Defenseman
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Cam Fowler - Hey does anyone else have a slightly used defenseman they'd like to trade us for nothing that will suddenly turn into a top 10 caliber guy? Cuz that would be super. Wow and I mean WOW did Fowler have an exceptional season once he got here. He scored at a 58 point pace, had the lowest xGA/60 of all D-men on our roster, all while playing against the toughest matchups and getting an Ozone faceoff rate of under 45%. Then he went on and scored 10 points in 7 playoff games and was the highest xGF% of any player on our roster. Take a bow sir, you played out of this world for us this season.

Philip Broberg - I'm still a bit in awe of his play this year. I mean I know I said it with Holloway, but I feel it bears repeating here - did ANYONE see this coming? This is a guy that had played 81 games over three seasons and had averaged less then 13 minutes a game. He comes here, plays 20:30 a game over 68 games and might be one of the top 5-10 best defensive defenseman on the season, all while chipping in almost 30 points. I am about as high on him as I have been on a Blues defenseman in the last 10-15 years. His skating is absurd, his positioning and stick work is fairly advanced from a guy with only 81 NHL games to his name prior to this year - and his offense looks like it's only a matter of time. He's already a solid #2, and if he can find another level offensively, he's going to come a bona-fide top 10 guy. Thanks again Edmonton, you f***ing losers.

Colton Parayko - Had a great season. Really can't argue that. But he's not the guy who can be the #1D and lead us to playoff success. He simply cannot transition the puck up the ice with consistency against a reasonable forecheck. Good news is, now he doesn't have to be, with Broberg and Fowler here. I still think he sucks on the PK, and I could go down that road a bit more (I already mentioned it a bit earlier up) but I'm running out of steam on this and kinda just want to finish lol. I'm sure someone will tell me I'm stupid and after I get some sleep I'll bust out all the stats on why he blows, but until then, just trust me bro Glad he's a Blue, but I always feel like I'm wanting more from the guy.

Justin Faulk - I think he's been beat up enough on these boards over the last couple of days, so I'm not going to pile on too much. Suffice to say he's clearly the weak link in our top 4. I think he'd be fine down on the third pair and on the PP2, but we need to find a guy to take his place in the top 4. The good news is that with Broberg's ascension, we could look for a guy with a slanted tool kit instead of a well rounded tool kit - what I mean by that is, I think we could get a mainly offensive guy to play in the top 4 (Think Shatty or like Ghost) and let Broberg cover for those deficiencies - or we could get a really solid defensive guy and hope that Broberg throws off the reins and goes bonkers on offense. I think we tried to kinda split the difference with Faulk, and he's just not capable of it anymore.

Leddy, Suter, and Tucker - I think Suter had a solid season, but for the second or maybe third year in a row, he couldn't handle the speed as the intensity ramps up in the playoffs. We should look at him as defensive depth, not a regular moving forward. Leddy is straight up cooked, he looks like he can barely skate anymore. Get rid of him for anything you possibly can. Tucker is fine, getting a 7th rounder to play NHL games at all is cool. I think we really need to rebuild the entire third pair though.

Goaltending
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Jordan Binnington - Glad to see Binner get his flowers at the 4 Nations. He's been an absolute beaut for us over the last 6-7 years. He didn't have the best regular season, especially compared to last year but he did enough to get us in and give us every chance to win. He deserved a better outcome in that Game 7.

Joel Hofer - I think Hofer had a solid season. Goaltending is voodoo, and he's good enough as a backup for now.

Summary
​

Overall this was a very positive year for the franchise. We incorporated a lot of young, new players, gave them bigger roles then before, and watched them mostly succeed. We had a franchise long winning streak, and we 100% should have beat the President's Trophy winners. Moving forward, I think there are a lot of directions we could go. We clearly need a 2C, and maybe even a 3C. While I'd like to upgrade on Faulk, I think Center(s) is the bigger priority. We cannot go into next season with Sunny as a full time regular, especially down the middle. I think one team we should reach out to is Seattle. They have three Centers already in Beniers, Wright, and Catton, and there's a good chance they will be in a position to draft another at #8 this year. We have a plethora of wingers and D prospects - could we work something out?

Another potential is Marner. Now I know it's a pipe dream, but IF we could get Marner to sign here, that would make me feel a lot more comfortable about using Kyrou as trade bait. We sign Marner then trade Kyrou for Larkin or one of the Seattle Centers? What about for a stud young RHD? I think the targets are well established by now - Dobson, Nemec, Clarke, Morrow, and Willander are the usual suspects. I wouldn't trade Kyrou straight up for any of them, but they could be the centerpieces of the deal.

Finally, with the cap going up, we are in a position to offer one of the UFA Centers a big AAV, short(er) term deal. Would Tavares come here for a 2 year 10-12M AAV contract? How about Duchene? I want to stay far away from Bennett. I think unless we can upgrade on Schenn at both 2C AND 3C though, it would probably behoove us to split up Holloway and Kyrou. I am operating under the assumption that Dvo is not ready next year, which I think is fair, unless his skating takes a massive jump (Unlikely) We could run:

Buch-Thomas-Kyrou
Neighbors-Tavares-Snuggy
Holloway-Schenn-Bolduc
Toro-Faksa-Sunny/Walker
Joseph

I really really don't want to see a Neighbors-Schenn-Snuggy/Bolduc line, that line will struggle to generate AND defend. I don't think Snuggy is ready for top line deployment, as we use Thomas too much as a matchup. I think Bolduc slots well into that spot, but it seems that Monty disagrees, and until I see otherwise, I'll operate under the assumption it won't happen. Bolduc had success with Holloway and Sunny, so I'm guessing Schenn can fill that role reasonably well. If I had my druthers though, I think I'd setup our lines like this:

Buch-Thomas-Bolduc
Holloway-Schenn-Kyrou
Neighbors-Tavares-Snuggy

Anyway, I think I've been writing this for going on like 5 hours now, and I need to pass out. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk, and as always, Flame On

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[Thallis]

GM
​

Huh that's weird. You guys hear that? Nope? Yea, that's because the Fire Armstrong crowd has been awwwwwful quiet recently. As well they should be - after fleecing Edmonton out of two now-core players in Holloway and Broberg, bringing in a guy who played like a true Franchise D for peanuts in Fowler, and hiring one of the best coaches in the NHL, along with showing that our amateur scouting team is still as strong as ever with the recent success of Bolduc, Snuggy, Tucker, and a plethora of prospects at the WJC/AHL, Doug Armstrong is reminding everyone that he still has plenty of zip on his fastball. I think this off-season has the potential to have massive ramifications for the future of this franchise. We have cap space, we have attractive assets, and we have fairly defined needs. We laid a lot of potential trade groundwork in the lead up to the Deadline as we weren't sure which direction the club was going to go. The UFA class actually has some interesting players for the first time in forever, and a lot of other teams that sync up well with our needs are facing crossroads, such as LA, Seattle, and both New York clubs. I'm excited and hopeful that Armstrong has one or two more rabbits to pull and really set us up for the next decade of thrilling, successful Blues' hockey, then riding off into the sunset Indiana Jones style (Yes I know he's staying as President, but allow me the metaphor).

​

Just touching on this because I'm one of the people you're referring to. I've been mostly quiet because it's obnoxious to be constantly negative when things are going well and everyone is happy as team is on a roll. I haven't really been swayed by anything yet. I very much disagree with the direction the franchise has taken, and still don't see a real path to true contention because of it.

Despite playing well and being instrumental to the turnaround, I still believe the Fowler trade was an awful move. It was a win now deal for a team that isn't close to being able to win. Fowler is a 33 year old defenseman who played at a level he hasn't seen for at least 5 years. It worked out to make us a playoff team, but I don't want to be just a playoff team. I don't want to be the Kings, Wild, or Flames. In a similar vein, Montgomery is undeniably one of the best coaches in the league, but if the roster doesn't have the talent to win the Stanley Cup or legitimately make noise in the playoffs, what does that really accomplish?

Our problem is still the same: we lack the truly elite talent that can take over a series, our defense is aging, and our organizational depth on defense is incredibly thin. I still have a lot of doubts as to how real the streak at the end of this season was and could easily see us on the outside looking in next if Utah takes another step.

 

[taylord22]

Sharing my thoughts, mostly from the series performance perspective with some broader takes thrown in. Agree with a lot of Badger's analysis.

Toropchenko had a great series — he’s a keeper that every other team in the NHL would love to have on their 4th. He’s already the energy driver of his line and brings a rare toolkit that feels like it still has some headroom. I can't stress enough how much impact he creates both in terms of forecheck and DZ coverage. Speed, Span, Strength and Endurance creates havoc and he has them all in abundance. The fact that Army referenced him when comping Peterson shows how highly he’s valued internally. I hope he prioritizes skill work in the offseason, but I would also love to see him become more of a "don't cross his wires" threat.

Faksa - Incredible performance in the playoffs - it was an absurdly impactful line. However, I wasn’t a fan of that line until after the 4 Nations. He stated after he was traded that he was looking for a more dynamic role, and it felt like he was initially trying to be the driver of that line— when really, it’s the Torpo show. That’s not a knock on Faksa, but once he simplified his game, that’s when the line really started to click. I’m curious how interested he is in returning. It’s encouraging that Army spoke with him, but he also made a point to mention there are younger guys they may want to give looks to.

Neighbors really grew into the series. The second line was a tough fit, but his compete level and small-area game were exactly what we have all hoped and assumed - he's a playoff player. I’d like to see him on the third line with more puck touches in a role where he’s driving play — there’s still more to unlock and I think more time with the puck on his stick is how it gets unlocked.

Thomas wasn’t 100%, yet he was still making plays with two defenders draped on him. I wouldn’t say he was inconsistent, but his dominant stretches increased as the series progressed. He got caught up in the physicality late in series, which may have taken away from his offense, but it was a great sign that he could flip that playoff-style switch. I think he has another conditioning level in him — being able to extend shifts and go all-out both ways would elevate his impact. Yes, we all wish he shot more, but he'll work with Oates again this offseason with plenty of new tape. His shift on the tying goal — even though it didn’t result in much — was all effort. Worth isolating.

Broberg was good early and great in the final three games. He settled in and began to take over shifts. His retrieval game needs refinement — there were some delayed reads under forecheck pressure — but that will improve. Once it does, he could be a true No. 1. For now, he’s already a near-dominant stay-at-home No. 2 with offensive upside. Confidence and reps are the key. Practicing with Fowler — whose retrieval IQ is elite — might be a perfect development path.

Fowler — simply put, couldn’t be happier with his performance. We'd chased him for 2-years before finally landing him - all the credit in the world to front office and pro scouts for isolating on him.

Buchnevich had a solid series. At times, he was the best puck-support player on the team; at others, he looked disconnected. He’s always been a chameleon — capable of adapting to line needs — and I think he’s still waiting for that other winger to "click" so he can mold his game accordingly.

Snuggerud started in the NHL trying to win battles like he was still in college but adapted quickly with smarter body and stick positioning. Really impressive. Reminded me a bit of Schwartz. With more NHL reps, I think his play selection and confidence in staying in lanes would’ve led to far more high-danger looks. He played a very high-event game, always engaging in the action, which pulled him out of offensive looks at times. He might be the missing link on that line — I’d be shocked if he’s not with Thomas out of the gate, especially due to the summer hockey that still exists in Oct. No concerns about him ramping with the NHL pace.

Faulk — I’ve been critical before and still have concerns about his long-term role, but overall, this season and series were a net positive. While I’d prefer to see him on the third pair, if Broberg is the driver and Faulk simplifies, that pairing could work.

Leddy didn’t look healthy. When he did flash, his mobility was still a luxury — but it’s hard to count on consistently. That’s concerning for us and any other NHL team.

Schenn is in decline but remains a good player and, by all accounts, the heart of the locker room. Still an important piece. We all know he needs 3rd vs. 2nd line minutes, but it will be interesting to see how we treat our middle-6 with any additions that come in. I could see an argument for leaving him with 25/81 -letting them insulate him- and moving e.g. our new (likely higher octane) center to be the pivot between Neighbors/Bolduc/Snuggy/etc...which may offer better balance. Or not, we'll see.

Bolduc — the “rat” element came out of nowhere, eh? I agree with Badger: his tools pop all over the ice. I’d have liked to see more self-creation, but the talk of him being highly coachable makes me think he was hyper focused on playing smart, safe and not making mistakes. Excited to see more. At the same time, I catch myself hesitating to get too attached — he’s almost certainly viewed as a valuable trade chip league-wide. I hope he stays, but if Army is going big-game hunting, he’d be on my list of asks if I'm another GM. His floor basically being a 20 goal super utility forward is already an eye popping outcome.

Kyrou -- I thought had a strange series. I do think he was either hurt or seeing ghosts -maybe both- but he remained engaged. Broadly speaking, there aren't many burner/snipers that play a decisively more engaged game than Kyrou did this year. He clearly struggled adapting his game to both the pressure/isolation he faced, and mapping his game better to Schenn/Neighbors. The latter is not all his fault. He did generate chances, though. The underlying numbers would say he led the team in overall chances (just not HD). I think all of us -including his detractors- would agree that Holloway would've made a huge difference in his impact, and that's something that cuts both ways. You don't like to have too many IFTT players/combos, but the chemistry between them was so good that you have to think very long and hard about breaking it up. I'm not going to dissuade people from throwing his name in proposals or thought experiments, but, I will say: Monty/Thomas working together mapping his game to Eichel tape did wonders for Thomas. There's plenty of Connor tape for them to do the same with Kyrou after this series.

 

[pseudoswede]

Honestly, there isn't anyone else on the team that I'd want to wear the C except for Schenn. I'd be open to suggestions. But I think slotting him in at 2C or 3C depending on the matchups (and injuries) is where he belongs.

 

[Itsnotatrap]

Was blown away by Holloway and Broberg both throughout the season, but will echo the idea that Broberg continued to surprise and impress me in the playoffs.

After that tying goal I was in the dumps and defeatist about the OT’s, but Broberg did catch my eyes as being stabilizing and strong throughout the game and into the OT’s.

Let’s get that long term deal done there, and get him some power play reps.

 

[Stealth JD]

Just touching on this because I'm one of the people you're referring to. I've been mostly quiet because it's obnoxious to be constantly negative when things are going well and everyone is happy as team is on a roll. I haven't really been swayed by anything yet. I very much disagree with the direction the franchise has taken, and still don't see a real path to true contention because of it.

Despite playing well and being instrumental to the turnaround, I still believe the Fowler trade was an awful move. It was a win now deal for a team that isn't close to being able to win. Fowler is a 33 year old defenseman who played at a level he hasn't seen for at least 5 years. It worked out to make us a playoff team, but I don't want to be just a playoff team. I don't want to be the Kings, Wild, or Flames. In a similar vein, Montgomery is undeniably one of the best coaches in the league, but if the roster doesn't have the talent to win the Stanley Cup or legitimately make noise in the playoffs, what does that really accomplish?

Our problem is still the same: we lack the truly elite talent that can take over a series, our defense is aging, and our organizational depth on defense is incredibly thin. I still have a lot of doubts as to how real the streak at the end of this season was and could easily see us on the outside looking in next if Utah takes another step.

The margins are so incredibly thin, that minor improvements can pay huge dividends. We just saw how close this team, as the second wild card, was to advancing past the President's Cup winners. You mean to say that you can't see how there's a path past round two and beyond? That's incredibly short-sighted if so, and playoff favorites routinely get goalied or derailed by injury. If the Blues close out that series with Winnipeg (which isn't some unfathomable outcome), they could be one heavy check away from putting Wyatt Johnston or Thomas Harley out for the Star's series, joining both Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen on the sideline. You don't think that could change the outcome of a potential second round series?

Also, the next time I worry about the Utah franchise making the playoffs will be the first. Until they prove otherwise, they're the Sabres of the West. There are very few power-houses in the conference against whom the Blues couldn't compete. Being upset because we traded a 2nd round pick for Fowler instead of cruising to a 6-9th overall pick seems...odd.

 

[Thallis]

The margins are so incredibly thin, that minor improvements can pay huge dividends. We just saw how close this team, as the second wild card, was to advancing past the President's Cup winners. You mean to say that you can't see how there's a path past round two and beyond? That's incredibly short-sighted if so, and playoff favorites routinely get goalied or derailed by injury. If the Blues close out that series with Winnipeg (which isn't some unfathomable outcome), they could be one heavy check away from putting Wyatt Johnston or Thomas Harley out for the Star's series, joining both Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen on the sideline. You don't think that could change the outcome of a potential second round series?

Also, the next time I worry about the Utah franchise making the playoffs will be the first. Until they prove otherwise, they're the Sabres of the West. There are very few power-houses in the conference against whom the Blues couldn't compete. Being upset because we traded a 2nd round pick for Fowler instead of cruising to a 6-9th overall pick seems...odd.

We had so much go right in that series that typically does not. We faced a historically bad goaltending performance from the most expensive player on the Jet's roster while they were missing an entire top 6 line and still couldn't close it out. A team with real cup aspirations should have blown through Winnipeg in the state they were in. The path you're describing, essentially gooning our way to the cup final, l isn't a real thing. It hasn't happened in decades, why would we think that's an actual path? Why is our path to success that other teams' stars get hurt and ours aren't? I want the franchise to be in a state where on paper and on ice we should be dominant in the opening rounds of the playoffs, with players who can take over a conference final. That's how you create decade long contention windows, not play "what ifs" on if we can hurt important enough players. That's what loser franchises who play bullshit hockey do.

As for the other point, Utah was right in the mix of things until we went on our run. They're a young team with elite talent, a better pipeline, and are in a better position to spend than any other team in the league. They have the assets and cap space to add a Kyrou level difference maker to a team that was already on the cusp. Obviously, the off season moves will tell all, but this is a team that's very well positioned for the future and not one that should be compared to how handcuffed they were in Arizona.

 

[Ranksu]

Quiet?

Ofc I cheers when team is playoffs. Shit its already on pants so why not enjoy The ride.

3 games won and what else?

Team shit themselves and couldt Win team who was missing #1 center and top2 dmen and shakey goaltender. Gontratz.

Game 7 performance was chokejob of this franchise. So If that makea our kids better so Be IT and good experience.

O boy I would Be hyped if our team Be #10 spot and won draft lottery.


Dont Be shocked If this team isnt next season Even close to bubble.

Thsnk god Binnington isnt Freddie Anderson or Antti Raanta.

 

[Majorityof1]

The margins are so incredibly thin, that minor improvements can pay huge dividends. We just saw how close this team, as the second wild card, was to advancing past the President's Cup winners. You mean to say that you can't see how there's a path past round two and beyond? That's incredibly short-sighted if so, and playoff favorites routinely get goalied or derailed by injury. If the Blues close out that series with Winnipeg (which isn't some unfathomable outcome), they could be one heavy check away from putting Wyatt Johnston or Thomas Harley out for the Star's series, joining both Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen on the sideline. You don't think that could change the outcome of a potential second round series?

Also, the next time I worry about the Utah franchise making the playoffs will be the first. Until they prove otherwise, they're the Sabres of the West. There are very few power-houses in the conference against whom the Blues couldn't compete. Being upset because we traded a 2nd round pick for Fowler instead of cruising to a 6-9th overall pick seems...odd.

We took President's trophy team to the brink when their MVP candidate goalie turned into a pumpkin. If Helle turned in even a league average performance, it would have been less close. We played great but we played at 95%, they played at 75% and we still lost.

6-9 sure. Maybe that doesn't move the needle. But 10th would have given us #1 OA, not the Isle. And that does move the needle. It's a Fowler level floor LD for potentialy a decade instead of 2 years.

 

[STL fan in MN]

We took President's trophy team to the brink when their MVP candidate goalie turned into a pumpkin. If Helle turned in even a league average performance, it would have been less close. We played great but we played at 95%, they played at 75% and we still lost.

6-9 sure. Maybe that doesn't move the needle. But 10th would have given us #1 OA, not the Isle. And that does move the needle. It's a Fowler level floor LD for potentialy a decade instead of 2 years.

Well sure. With hindsight, it would look really really good to have finished 10th worst as the 3.5% chance of that team winning the lottery happened but with foresight? I don’t have an issue with how the Blues front office made their decisions.

 

[Xerloris]

es, we all wish he shot more, but he'll work with Oates again this offseason with plenty of new tape. His shift on the tying goal — even though it didn’t result in much — was all effort. Worth isolating.

Is this personal opinion or do you know this to be true?

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I like future thoughts. I get to know what I’m going to think before I think it.

 

[Majorityof1]

Well sure. With hindsight, it would look really really good to have finished 10th worst as the 3.5% chance of that team winning the lottery happened but with foresight? I don’t have an issue with how the Blues front office made their decisions.

The same could be said about doing as well as we did in the playoffs. Not many of us would have predicted it with foresight either.

I often said I liked our low chances of winning the lottery over our chances of winning if we made the playoffs. I recanted later as I gained more info once we started winning after the 4 nations.

But with foresight at the time of the Fowler trade, who would have predicted a team record winning streak and a 7 game squeaker against the President's trophy winner?

 

[STL fan in MN]

Is this personal opinion or do you know this to be true?

It’s known that Thomas has worked with Oates in the past. Unless taylord has inside info, it would be speculation that Thomas would work with Oates again…but it makes sense as RT spoke highly of what he learned from Oates. I wish more of our players worked with Oates, Belfry or one of the other specialized skills coaches out there.

Edit: looked it up and Oates’ websites details who all he works with. Thomas, Buchy and Schenn on the list.

Oates Sports Group

PAVEL BUCHNEVICH

CAL CLUTTERBUCK

ANDREW COPP

RASMUS DAHLIN

MAX DOMI

MATT DUCHENE

JACK EICHEL

CONOR GARLAND

ERIK GUDBRANSON

BO HORVAT

NIKITA KUCHEROV

OLLI MAATTA

NATHAN MACKINNON

CONNOR MCDAVID

JOSH MORRISSEY

DARNELL NURSE

ALEXANDER ROMANOV

MARK SCHEIFELE

BRAYDEN SCHENN

LUKE SCHENN

TYLER SEGUIN

JEFF SKINNER

STEVEN STAMKOS

RYAN STROME

NICK SUZUKI

SHEA THEODORE

ROBERT THOMAS

MATTHEW TKACHUK

JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK

TREVOR ZEGRAS

 

[taylord22]

Is this personal opinion or do you know this to be true?

He's been working with Adam Oates the last two off-seasons and has described a lot of that as going over video about shot/play selections. There's a post dispatch article on the topic and often snippets woven into Athletic articles (e.g. below):​

"Last offseason, Thomas worked on his offensive skill development, including his shooting, with Hall of Famer and former Blues center Adam Oates, who does one-on-one specialization with dozens of other players around the NHL. He said Oates’ help has taught him to bring a different approach to his shot decisions and selections.

“I think most of it is just the way I see the ice,” Thomas said. “I think the more video you watch, you kind of realize when you’re in the right position, the play kind of slows down a little, and you get that extra second. That’s what I worked on a lot this summer, watching video and realizing that extra second. Sometimes you think it’s there and it’s not and you turn it over. But eight or nine times out of 10 it’s there, and it leads to better quality shot.”​

​

​

Obviously, I don't know that he's 100% going back to Oates this summer - but I'm assuming it's very likely. If I remember correctly he did joke in a post game interview earlier this season that Oates was going to be laughing/on him about a play he made where he should've shot, but made the pass, it got blocked, but he grabbed the rebound and put it in for the Game Winner.

​

​

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I predicted the Blues would be the WC2 and lose R1 in 5. They exceeded my prediction.

With the right tweaks, the Blues will win at least one round next playoffs.

 

[Brian39]

We took President's trophy team to the brink when their MVP candidate goalie turned into a pumpkin. If Helle turned in even a league average performance, it would have been less close. We played great but we played at 95%, they played at 75% and we still lost.

6-9 sure. Maybe that doesn't move the needle. But 10th would have given us #1 OA, not the Isle. And that does move the needle. It's a Fowler level floor LD for potentialy a decade instead of 2 years.

Which of our 3 victories do you think goes the other direction if Helly was simply average?

I very much disagree that him being simply average turns 7, 5, and 5 goal nights from the Blues into 1 or 2 goal nights for the Blues. Our expected goals in each of our wins were between 2.4 and 2.95, despite pretty noticeably taking our foots off the gas offensively down the stretch. Helly being better wouldn't have caused Binner to allow more goals. Binner allowed 1 goal until garbage time in games 3 and 6. In both games, the refs started calling game management penalties to control after-the-whistle stuff that was getting out of hand due to the score. They aren't getting those calls in a tight game. And then in game 4 he allowed 1 goal through the whole game.

So in each of our wins, we're talking about Helly needing to allow 3+ fewer goals for it to be a tight game that they'd have a chance to win. And in all 3 games, he'd need to have stopped more than expected just for them to get into an empty net scenario.

Helly being awful was great fun, but I think his play turned likely Blues wins into curb stomps. He'd have needed to be far better than just league average for them to get any of those 3 games to OT. I don't disagree with the overall point that a ton went right in this series for us, but Helly turning pumpkin isn't the only reason we came 1.6 seconds away from winning that series.

 

[Oberyn]

Blues still win all their home games against Winnipeg even if Hellebuyck is playing at his usual level. It's not like we beat them 3-2 each game, we literally blew them out on all 3 victories. He might have saved a goal or two more but the Blues still win those.

 

[Brian39]

Overall, I agree with just about all of your analysis here Badger. Some disagreement, but I'm not going to quibble about small differences.

I will say that I think you're being overly critical on Schenn. I don't want him at 2C, I do think that he was carried by line mates, and I've long hated his defensive play. The underlying numbers definitely get uglier without Holloway/Kyrou, but he also played a heavy defensive role in the minutes he played without them. I think it's way premature to be trying to get him to the 4th line as I think he's currently an above-average 3C. Beyond just where I think he 'deserves' to be, I'm also not eager to spend assets on a 2C AND a different/better 3C.

If we find ourselves a 2C upgrade, I'm extremely content plugging Schenn into 3C and forcing Dvorsky to earn the 3C spot (or start as a wing and work his way up the lineup like Thomas did).

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Blues still win all their home games against Winnipeg even if Hellebuyck is playing at his usual level. It's not like we beat them 3-2 each game, we literally blew them out on all 3 victories. He might have saved a goal or two more but the Blues still win those.

Which means the Blues must finish higher in the standings in order to have home-ice advantage.

 

[Majorityof1]

Which of our 3 victories do you think goes the other direction if Helly was simply average?

I very much disagree that him being simply average turns 7, 5, and 5 goal nights from the Blues into 1 or 2 goal nights for the Blues. Our expected goals in each of our wins were between 2.4 and 2.95, despite pretty noticeably taking our foots off the gas offensively down the stretch. Helly being better wouldn't have caused Binner to allow more goals. Binner allowed 1 goal until garbage time in games 3 and 6. In both games, the refs started calling game management penalties to control after-the-whistle stuff that was getting out of hand due to the score. They aren't getting those calls in a tight game. And then in game 4 he allowed 1 goal through the whole game.

So in each of our wins, we're talking about Helly needing to allow 3+ fewer goals for it to be a tight game that they'd have a chance to win. And in all 3 games, he'd need to have stopped more than expected just for them to get into an empty net scenario.

Helly being awful was great fun, but I think his play turned likely Blues wins into curb stomps. He'd have needed to be far better than just league average for them to get any of those 3 games to OT. I don't disagree with the overall point that a ton went right in this series for us, but Helly turning pumpkin isn't the only reason we came 1.6 seconds away from winning that series.

That analysis ignores momentum. The wind visibly left Wpg's sails (boat idiom in honor of Army's love of nautical sayings) when he let in a bad goal. If they don't go down that early, if the game doesn't get out of hand, that is a different game and different wpg team than what we saw.

Maybe you are right and it's the same result. BuI'I think it's a different series with better Wpg goaltending. Bad early goals can change a game's trajectory.

 

[TheDizee]

lots of good discussion here.

but please keep in mind, we would also have won this series if Kyrou was not a mess. He could have buried a goal in Game 1 on a breakaway but he missed on a goaltender who was obviously trash all series. He was total no shows in every other game including 7. And I think Game 7 was his worst game of the series with how many puck battles he lost, how he showed no determination and he got called out on national TV for it.

 

[Stealth JD]

lots of good discussion here.

but please keep in mind, we would also have won this series if Kyrou was not a mess. He could have buried a goal in Game 1 on a breakaway but he missed on a goaltender who was obviously trash all series. He was total no shows in every other game including 7. And I think Game 7 was his worst game of the series with how many puck battles he lost, how he showed no determination and he got called out on national TV for it.

My God, man. You're like Gallager here smashing watermelons . You desperately need some new material.

Edit: thanks to STL Fan in MN for correcting my produce!