Speculation: Player Discussion: Will Smith

[Barrie22]

Carlsson and Fantilli are getting more top minutes though and facing better players. Smith is definitely not performing to the level of Fantilli and Carlsson this year. I also think and have consistently said that it doesn't matter, even doesn't matter next year, you just want to see the trajectory. He may even be a VERY slow developer and end up needing 5 years to hit his peak/plateau, who knows.

So he is getting less minutes and less talent to work with (outside of a 10 game stretch with celebrini) and is still only 1 point back of carlsson with the same amount of games and 6 points back of fantilli with 7 less games.

Oh and that doesn't take into account that both of them are 2nd year nhl players and should actually be way farther ahead of Smith at this point in there careers.

 

[coooldude]

So he is getting less minutes and less talent to work with (outside of a 10 game stretch with celebrini) and is still only 1 point back of carlsson with the same amount of games and 6 points back of fantilli with 7 less games.

Oh and that doesn't take into account that both of them are 2nd year nhl players and should actually be way farther ahead of Smith at this point in there careers.

This is the same debate people are having with Celebrini vs. Michkov, the only difference being that the ppg is now firmly in Celebrini's favor.

A guy getting minutes vs. weaker players should be able to produce better than the guys getting top-line matched every game. He's even getting 3rd line treatment with Celebrini and the opposing teams aren't shutting their line down and he isn't really producing.

They were the same draft year, so I don't think "they should be doing better this year" is a good argument against. At any rate, I think that many fans and probably NHL front offices would swap Smith for Carlsson (and maybe Fantilli) in a heartbeat. There's a reason they went before him last year.

We don't need to put lipstick on a pig, he's not having a stellar rookie season. That's OK and we don't have to evaluate him as a core piece for another 2+ seasons.

 

[Barrie22]

This is the same debate people are having with Celebrini vs. Michkov, the only difference being that the ppg is now firmly in Celebrini's favor.

A guy getting minutes vs. weaker players should be able to produce better than the guys getting top-line matched every game. He's even getting 3rd line treatment with Celebrini and the opposing teams aren't shutting their line down and he isn't really producing.

They were the same draft year, so I don't think "they should be doing better this year" is a good argument against. At any rate, I think that many fans and probably NHL front offices would swap Smith for Carlsson (and maybe Fantilli) in a heartbeat. There's a reason they went before him last year.

We don't need to put lipstick on a pig, he's not having a stellar rookie season. That's OK and we don't have to evaluate him as a core piece for another 2+ seasons.

Smith is in the same process that fantili and Carlsson were going through last year. Learning on the fly in the nhl.

Smiths most paired linemates have been kunin, sturm, goodrow, grundstrom. And the only player that has any sort of nhl level offensive talent he has played with is Celebrini.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Fantilli has like, the worst underlying metrics of any player in the NHL this year. He’s definitely having a worse year than Smith.

 

[coooldude]

Fantilli has like, the worst underlying metrics of any player in the NHL this year. He’s definitely having a worse year than Smith.

But would you swap them? I'm not sure about Fantilli since he always seemed to be maybe a little bit of a meathead, but I'd swap Carlsson and Smith.

Smiths most paired linemates have been kunin, sturm, goodrow, grundstrom. And the only player that has any sort of nhl level offensive talent he has played with is Celebrini.

Been with Celebrini for 5? Games now and it hasn't looked very effective aside from about 5 good shifts.

 

[LilLeeroy]

But would you swap them? I'm not sure about Fantilli since he always seemed to be maybe a little bit of a meathead, but I'd swap Carlsson and Smith.


Been with Celebrini for 5? Games now and it hasn't looked very effective aside from about 5 good shifts.

Celebrini has not been playing well for weeks now, and Smith has consistently had a better xGoals% than him.

Smith was a disaster to start the year when they stapled him to Goodrow (like every player that has been paired with Goodrow) but has been effective since.

 

[coooldude]

Celebrini has not been playing well for weeks now, and Smith has consistently had a better xGoals% than him.

Smith was a disaster to start the year when they stapled him to Goodrow (like every player that has been paired with Goodrow) but has been effective since.

Agree to disagree on his effectiveness tonight. I think, as I suspected, that 51-71-2 or X-71-2 lines have been somewhat dangerous on the rush, but generally ineffective in OZ possession, aside from a few shifts.

Smith might have better xG% over a five game sample, but I don't think that is enough to declare that he's playing better than Celebrini. Those numbers can be really noisy in short samples.

Tldr not playing great but still not worried, just not very fun to watch as a fan right now. Sure would be nice to get one of those sick snipes or setups soon so we can talk about something else for a bit. Wish that PP crossbar had gone in.

 

[LilLeeroy]

Agree to disagree on his effectiveness tonight. I think, as I suspected, that 51-71-2 or X-71-2 lines have been somewhat dangerous on the rush, but generally ineffective in OZ possession, aside from a few shifts.

Smith might have better xG% over a five game sample, but I don't think that is enough to declare that he's playing better than Celebrini. Those numbers can be really noisy in short samples.

Tldr not playing great but still not worried, just not very fun to watch as a fan right now. Sure would be nice to get one of those sick snipes or setups soon so we can talk about something else for a bit. Wish that PP crossbar had gone in.

Better 10 game rolling average too. I think it's enough evidence to say there is something else clearing going on than "Smith is dragging down Celebrini" if Smith has been outchancing Macklin consistently despite more PP/empty net minutes.

 

[coooldude]

Better 10 game rolling average too. I think it's enough evidence to say there is something else clearing going on than "Smith is dragging down Celebrini" if Smith has been outchancing Macklin consistently despite more PP/empty net minutes.

I'm not one of the people saying Smith is dragging down Celebrini, I agree with you that Celebrini's in a slump. I think it's both of them playing an immature game and it doesn't really work.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

But would you swap them? I'm not sure about Fantilli since he always seemed to be maybe a little bit of a meathead, but I'd swap Carlsson and Smith.


Been with Celebrini for 5? Games now and it hasn't looked very effective aside from about 5 good shifts.

I'd swap Smith for Fantilli, absolutely. Fantilli still has the better raw tools and Fantilli's rookie year was still better than Smith's rookie year has been thus far despite it being Fantilli's D+1.

I expect Fantilli to get over whatever is going on. This happens to a lot of young players that turn out fine. I just wanted to point out there is more to who is having the better season than just what line they're playing on and how many points they have. Columbus' 5-on-5 score adjusted xGF% (using NST model) is 44% better with Fantilli on the bench than it is with him on the ice. (36.43% with him, 52.4% without him). That's utter absurdity. He's getting absolutely crushed despite favorable usage.

 

[coooldude]

In the spirit of positivity, some micro stats in this article showing Smith is doing well at passes leading to shots, and high danger chances at net front. Doing badly at puck battles.

Evaluating how Sharks players are performing in eight key micro-stats

San Jose Hockey Now’s Sheng Peng evaluates how some Sharks players have performed in several key micro-stats.

www.nbcsportsbayarea.com

 

[The Nemesis]

After thinking about it for a long time, I think I've come to the conclusion that "AHL Smith" is inappropriate and unfair and we should, collectively, not stoop to the level of using such ridiculously overstated and maliciously untrue nicknames to refer to players as it's not fair to them and it reflects poorly on us as a community.

With that in mind I hope they sort out ECHL Smith soon.

Spoiler

 

[DG93]

This entire Smith discussion is just the same people going around in circles. The same 3-4 posters outline the same criticisms of a teenager getting used to the NHL game as a 19-year-old, which is what everyone else responds with. It's tiring...

 

[hohosaregood]

If Will Smith was supposed to be a hockey player, his name would've been Will Hockeyman

 

[karltonian]

I'm not one of the people saying Smith is dragging down Celebrini, I agree with you that Celebrini's in a slump. I think it's both of them playing an immature game and it doesn't really work.

So I took a look at the numbers and he is in fact dragging down celebrini, which the eye test confirms. The utter lack of offensive zone possession really drags the line and Celebrini's effectiveness down. The fact he has a higher xgf% is a byproduct of being the f3 but it takes way too much work to get him the puck in a position where he can actually get a shot off.

Of the players Celebrini plays with most, he does the worst with Smith. Smith also does worse with Granlund and better with Wennberg, Goodrow (yes), and Sturm. That means basically that he is neutralized by defensive focus. And that much is obvious to the eye, he has little ability to beat decent NHL defense. Perhaps to be expected, but Celebrini can play against that competition and does demand that attention.

Smith is unfortunately just not a good fit with Celebrini at this time, he is on a different level of play and development, and I think it is a mistake to slow down Celebrini's development to the pace of Smith's.

Smith needs to grow into an NHLer anyway so who cares if he has to slum it a bit on the 3rd line. They put tyler toffoli on that line so they clearly view it as a partial scoring line.

 

[The Nemesis]

If Will Smith was supposed to be a hockey player, his name would've been Will Hockeyman

He should've been named Will Busrider.

 

[timorous me]

From Sheng's piece about Granlund today, some nice things about Smith straight from Granny:

“Once you see that, you put the work in, you can tell the confidence they have,” Granlund said. “Look at Smitty, what he looks like on the ice right now than he was few months ago. He’s more confident, he can make plays, but it all comes down to making those little things right, being able to win battles, escape, and then, all of a sudden, the skill will take over.”

 

[gaucholoco3]

Smith and Celebrini shouldn’t be on the same line because they play completely opposite games. Celebrini is always looking to push the pace and take the puck north south to the net. Smith wants to slow the game down and find east west slot passes to teammates. Once they both develop to be able to drive their own lines it will be a nightmare for coaches to game plan against the opposing styles.

The coach is putting them together now because he is trying to prioritize winning games. I personally disagree with the coach about the Lund line’s effectiveness but he keeps going back to it because he thinks it gives the team the best chance to win.

I would like to see them create pairs of F2 and F3 and then rotate F1’s to find the right fit.

Eklund - Celebrini
Smith - Granlund
Toffoli - Wenberg

I do think this will find the best balance between lines that compete now but also improve the development of Smith and Celebrini.

 

[TheBeard]

The coach is putting them together now because he is trying to prioritize winning games.

I don’t think that’s why. He’s trying to get his kids going. He’s trying to get any offense going. Since that brief spurt in November, the team has scored over 3 goals once (18 games). In those same games they’ve scored 2 or less in 11.