Speculation: Player Discussion: Will Smith

[sincityshark]

I see a player out there who isn't confident right now.

He's scared to make mistakes because his ice time will diminish... I would love for him to be sent down to the A and let him get his confidence back, he has the tools and the i.q. to be a solid 2c in the future.. just needs to hone in his game and work on his skating.. idk im no scout..

 

[Forlan]

Smith is very dependent on line partners. He's good on free ice and when there's little pressure. Smith doesn't have good skating and physical conditioning to feel confident in stressful situations. It remains to be hoped that he will significantly improve in these aspects

 

[Shark Finn]

Smith is very dependent on line partners. He's good on free ice and when there's little pressure. Smith doesn't have good skating and physical conditioning to feel confident in stressful situations. It remains to be hoped that he will significantly improve in these aspects

It'll be a very long offseason for Smith to train and concentrate on his glaring weaknesses while improving otherwise too. I'm not too worried at this point. The kid will learn.

 

[TheBigDrunkPanda]

I see a player out there who isn't confident right now.

He's scared to make mistakes because his ice time will diminish... I would love for him to be sent down to the A and let him get his confidence back, he has the tools and the i.q. to be a solid 2c in the future.. just needs to hone in his game and work on his skating.. idk im no scout..

Im not sure if sending him down to the A now would be helpful. He hasn’t been same player since getting injured. His 2 biggest weaknesses are his strength and lack of speed/acceleration those won’t get fixed in the A, this offseason is probably going to be very critical in his development, eklund had the same problem too but he put on muscle since his rookie year and it’s paid dividends

 

[Shark Finn]

1+1 on Celebrini's wing.

 

[CHALUPA]

Can we just accept he’s going to be inconsistent this year? He’s going to flash his potential, and he’s going to have bad moments. Just enjoy the ride

 

[MackAttack71]

Smith is so bad, send him to the AHL.
Very unusual, a rookie with bad linemates has problems to perform.
Perhaps we can stop this dumb discussion one day.
He is young, he has to develop and will struggle and having bad games at time.
I'm totally fine with it and love watching him play.

 

[coooldude]

He looked much better of course, and that was great to see. They both looked more like the teenagers they are, including Celebrini - high event, some great plays and some bonehead decisions. An awesome possession shift in the OZ right away which surprised me, and then within the next two shifts got totally hemmed in in the DZ which was unsurprising. Zetts isn't really the perfect linemate for them, might want to try Kovalenko. But then again the line could gel a bit more if they stick with it tonight.

Overall Macklin is creeping back into "trying to do it all" a bit too much but hard to tell an 18yo with his energy and skill not to. I'm game to see them keep the kids together for a few more games. Definitely a good influence on Smith who was skating harder and more engaged last night.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

I actually don't agree with people who state that Smith is definitively not NHL caliber and would not be in the NHL right now if not for his draft position.

IMO, if Smith walked onto training camp at age 25, there are some teams who would see his talent and find a place for him in a soft-minutes scoring role with PP time, and others who would cut him. Very few (if any) teams have 9 forwards with the raw offensive talent that Smith has. On the flip side, very few teams have more than 1-2 forwards who are as poor defensively as Smith. This makes him an edge case.

Some other full-time NHL forwards who currently fit the Smith mold include Robby Fabbri, Cole Sillinger, Jack Quinn, Alex Newhook, Jeff Skinner, Vladimir Tarasenko, Patrick Kane. Per 60 minutes, Smith has the highest PP scoring rate of all of these players, and only Sillinger has a higher 5v5 scoring rate. Even if you just want to look at points per game, only Kane and Sillinger are ahead of Smith. All of them (including Smith) are near the worst defensive forwards in the NHL according to my WAR model, and none of them have a good defensive reputation either.

If you want to argue that these are some of the worst forwards in the league, go for it. I won't disagree. But the point is that there are full-time NHL forwards who fit a similar mold as Smith: Terrible defensively, and talented offensively, but not exactly lighting it up on the scoresheet. So, to definitively state that Smith is just not an NHLer and that he is being totally gifted this spot due to his draft position and some agreement with Grier is unfounded. There is no way you can say 31 other teams would be playing him in the AHL.

The key distinction is that no other team would be playing a player in this mold in a checking role with most common 5v5 forward linemates Luke Kunin & Barclay Goodrow. Fabbri's most common linemates are Mason McTavish and Cutter Gauthier. Kane's most common linemates are DeBrincat and JT Compher. Skinner is the one who has been closest to a 4th line role, and his most common forward linemates are Adam Henrique and Mattias Janmark.

I won't go through the full list, but it's clear that Smith is being deployed differently than other forwards who fit a similar mold. That's why it feels like he's out of place, or like he's being forced into the NHL. If he played in a role more suited to his strengths, he'd look more like a limited, soft-minutes 3rd line scorer who gives up a lot defensively.

 

[sampler]

He looked pretty good last night. Lost tons of battles and iffy defensively but he did get to flex some offensive muscles pared with celly and Zetts. Made some sweet passes, drove the net well, and was a factor.

My fave is getting an assist for a lost FO.

Smith is 19. Likely he would develop in the ahl or nhl. He just needs experience playing against men. The one thing he doesn’t need is healthy scratches or 8-10 mins of fourth line duty. That’s why I was pushing for ahl where he can play 18-20 mins of top line play. If he’s gunna stay nhl, he needs a similar deployment: at least 13-14 mins with good lines mates. I like putting him with celly…

 

[Tw1ster]

He looked pretty good last night. Lost tons of battles and iffy defensively but he did get to flex some offensive muscles pared with celly and Zetts. Made some sweet passes, drove the net well, and was a factor.

My fave is getting an assist for a lost FO.

Smith is 19. Likely he would develop in the ahl or nhl. He just needs experience playing against men. The one thing he doesn’t need is healthy scratches or 8-10 mins of fourth line duty. That’s why I was pushing for ahl where he can play 18-20 mins of top line play. If he’s gunna stay nhl, he needs a similar deployment: at least 13-14 mins with good lines mates. I like putting him with celly…

I know this is always brought up but let’s not forget he also had some good defensive moments that I actually thought outweighed the “iffy” ones.

 

[Shark Finn]

Can we just accept he’s going to be inconsistent this year? He’s going to flash his potential, and he’s going to have bad moments. Just enjoy the ride

Accept? Probably. Agree? No.

 

[coooldude]

I actually don't agree with people who state that Smith is definitively not NHL caliber and would not be in the NHL right now if not for his draft position.

IMO, if Smith walked onto training camp at age 25, there are some teams who would see his talent and find a place for him in a soft-minutes scoring role with PP time, and others who would cut him. Very few (if any) teams have 9 forwards with the raw offensive talent that Smith has. On the flip side, very few teams have more than 1-2 forwards who are as poor offensively as Smith. This makes him an edge case.

Some other full-time NHL forwards who currently fit the Smith mold include Robby Fabbri, Cole Sillinger, Jack Quinn, Alex Newhook, Jeff Skinner, Vladimir Tarasenko, Patrick Kane. Per 60 minutes, Smith has the highest PP scoring rate of all of these players, and only Sillinger has a higher 5v5 scoring rate. Even if you just want to look at points per game, only Kane and Sillinger are ahead of Smith. All of them (including Smith) are near the worst defensive forwards in the NHL according to my WAR model, and none of them have a good defensive reputation either.

If you want to argue that these are some of the worst forwards in the league, go for it. I won't disagree. But the point is that there are full-time NHL forwards who fit a similar mold as Smith: Terrible defensively, and talented offensively, but not exactly lighting it up on the scoresheet. So, to definitively state that Smith is just not an NHLer and that he is being totally gifted this spot due to his draft position and some agreement with Grier is unfounded. There is no way you can say 31 other teams would be playing him in the AHL.

The key distinction is that no other team would be playing a player in this mold in a checking role with most common 5v5 forward linemates Luke Kunin & Barclay Goodrow. Fabbri's most common linemates are Mason McTavish and Cutter Gauthier. Kane's most common linemates are DeBrincat and JT Compher. Skinner is the one who has been closest to a 4th line role, and his most common forward linemates are Adam Henrique and Mattias Janmark.

I won't go through the full list, but it's clear that Smith is being deployed differently than other forwards who fit a similar mold. That's why it feels like he's out of place, or like he's being forced into the NHL. If he played in a role more suited to his strengths, he'd look more like a limited, soft-minutes 3rd line scorer who gives up a lot defensively.

All makes sense. I don't agree with the connotations, but the poster making the Labanc parallel is onto the same thing (for now). The obvious thing is that we're comparing a 19yo who isn't even fully developed and is still in his first 40 pro games, versus a multi year vet. But the immediate lineup problem is the same: they need better top 6 minutes to be good/their best, but they can be highly detrimental to those lines in DZ/possession, leaving the coach with a dilemma. The likelihood and hope is that he stays on a strong learning curve for 3-5 more seasons and grows out of this problem.

As for the PP1, I'm still hesitant to put Smith there in place of Granlund, because Smith has killed a ton of PP possessions on his own. But Granlund has looked pretty terrible on the left point of late also. We really are missing Eklund and Walman, and that waterfall harms Smith disproportionately.

 

[sampler]

All makes sense. I don't agree with the connotations, but the poster making the Labanc parallel is onto the same thing (for now). The obvious thing is that we're comparing a 19yo who isn't even fully developed and is still in his first 40 pro games, versus a multi year vet. But the immediate lineup problem is the same: they need better top 6 minutes to be good/their best, but they can be highly detrimental to those lines in DZ/possession, leaving the coach with a dilemma. The likelihood and hope is that he stays on a strong learning curve for 3-5 more seasons and grows out of this problem.

As for the PP1, I'm still hesitant to put Smith there in place of Granlund, because Smith has killed a ton of PP possessions on his own. But Granlund has looked pretty terrible on the left point of late also. We really are missing Eklund and Walman, and that waterfall harms Smith disproportionately.

Smith was deployed correctly last night with celebrini and a solid third (zetterlund/toffoli/etc).

The kids belong together. I actually think celebrini's energy is infectious to smith who is prone to laziness and half efforts sometimes. When healthy, I would like:

Celebrini-Smith-Toffoli
Lund Line (they remain most effective with each other)
Wennberg-Kunin-Kovalenko
Kostin-sturm-Grund
(Im over dyllandrea and goodrow)

Also, TBH, I have liked what Ive seen from grundstrom. I might give him a little look on the top lines. He may be a better asset than his current deployment.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

Smith just isn't physically developed. Celebrini is going toe to toe and thorwing the body. Smith needs to live in the weight room in the off season.