biturbo19
Registered User
- Jul 13, 2010
- 26,282
- 11,392
I think it's fairly reasonable to expect a Gudbranson deal to fall somewhere in that ~$4M ballpark +/-. Many here inevitably won't like that (primarily because they just don't value the type or style of player he is, i presume)...but we're talking about a Top-4D, even if that is more of a "#4" than anything higher up the chart. That comes at a premium these days - and the ability to play hard minutes and bring "intangibles" and physicality do influence value as well. Gudbranson's case isn't going to rest solely on this season with Vancouver either...he's got a body of work behind that.
Plus, the biggest thing...he's starting from a $3.5M baseline just on a Qualifying Offer basis. So any silly notion of bringing it down below that is out the question.
There aren't really a ton of perfect comps for Gudbranson though. It's kind of mucked up by the fact that he's got quite a few years under his belt for his age - relative to a lot of the more comparable 2nd-pairing type defencemen. A lot of the other guys who have come into the league as young as Gudbranson and notched a bunch of seasons before 25, tend to be other high picks who have obviously panned out better, and with more point production to them. A lot of the age/experience/stage of career cohorts aren't really applicable as quality of contribution comps. And a lot of the comps in terms of actual level of play...are guys who had a lot less NHL experience in the bank and less of a track record to go on at this rough age point.
imo one of the closest comps as a reference point is probably Marco Scandella @ $4M x 5 years. He had quite a bit less NHL experience in the bank at that similar age point, but i think it's a solid comp in terms of years playing in that 18-20mins range and comparable role. A bit more production, a bit less shutdown credentials. Overall probably about as close as it gets. I think that would be a fair deal.
The best low-end comp i can think of is Mattias Ekholm. $3.75M x 6 years. One of the best bargain deals in the league now, but at the time of signing...he was coming off only his 2nd real NHL season, and first playing in that 18+ mins range, with only 18pts. Probably hard to argue as a case against Gudbranson though, as it was a real "paying for potential" type gamble based on where he was trending at the time. vs Gudbranson with quite a bit more experience/track record to lean on. The numbers at time of signing are in the ballpark though.
There are also the uglier comps out there though. A guy like Emelin @ $4.1M...i think there's a strong case to be made that Gudbranson is the better player. So you can point at Tanev @ $4.45M and say Gudbranson absolutely must be below that, which you can argue quite reasonably - but there really isn't a lot of room over $4.1M and below $4.45M. So you're probably just haggling over maybe $300k one way or the other, which obviously matters...but is still pretty insignificant in the larger picture.
That's the reasonable range as an RFA. Right in and around $4M per. Say...$4M-4.3M or so.
However...any deal signed with Gudbranson at this point is going to start buying UFA years almost immediately. Which is where him having all those extra games of experience accrued compared to his natural player calibre cohorts could really bite us in the ass. Because he started in the NHL so young and notched so many games early...he'll be UFA eligible after next season. Which means, should Gudbranson's camp think he could fetch more on the open market as a UFA (and i think there's a good chance he would)...his camp can effectively throw out all the RFA comps altogether. Not hard for his camp to get him to open market very soon.
In which case, all bets are off really. If negotiations go down that road, negotiating with UFAs or impending UFAs is a crapshoot and can obviously get extremely pricey in a hurry. I really hope that's not where this goes...but it's certainly a possibility. That possibility is where rather than nickle and diming him over maybe $200k per year, it might be better/cheaper in the long-run to concede a little bit and not to force the issue down the path of Gudbranson going to UFA.
Really, that little 1-year extension from Florida made this situation a lot worse. But it is what it is i guess.
Plus, the biggest thing...he's starting from a $3.5M baseline just on a Qualifying Offer basis. So any silly notion of bringing it down below that is out the question.
There aren't really a ton of perfect comps for Gudbranson though. It's kind of mucked up by the fact that he's got quite a few years under his belt for his age - relative to a lot of the more comparable 2nd-pairing type defencemen. A lot of the other guys who have come into the league as young as Gudbranson and notched a bunch of seasons before 25, tend to be other high picks who have obviously panned out better, and with more point production to them. A lot of the age/experience/stage of career cohorts aren't really applicable as quality of contribution comps. And a lot of the comps in terms of actual level of play...are guys who had a lot less NHL experience in the bank and less of a track record to go on at this rough age point.
imo one of the closest comps as a reference point is probably Marco Scandella @ $4M x 5 years. He had quite a bit less NHL experience in the bank at that similar age point, but i think it's a solid comp in terms of years playing in that 18-20mins range and comparable role. A bit more production, a bit less shutdown credentials. Overall probably about as close as it gets. I think that would be a fair deal.
The best low-end comp i can think of is Mattias Ekholm. $3.75M x 6 years. One of the best bargain deals in the league now, but at the time of signing...he was coming off only his 2nd real NHL season, and first playing in that 18+ mins range, with only 18pts. Probably hard to argue as a case against Gudbranson though, as it was a real "paying for potential" type gamble based on where he was trending at the time. vs Gudbranson with quite a bit more experience/track record to lean on. The numbers at time of signing are in the ballpark though.
There are also the uglier comps out there though. A guy like Emelin @ $4.1M...i think there's a strong case to be made that Gudbranson is the better player. So you can point at Tanev @ $4.45M and say Gudbranson absolutely must be below that, which you can argue quite reasonably - but there really isn't a lot of room over $4.1M and below $4.45M. So you're probably just haggling over maybe $300k one way or the other, which obviously matters...but is still pretty insignificant in the larger picture.
That's the reasonable range as an RFA. Right in and around $4M per. Say...$4M-4.3M or so.
However...any deal signed with Gudbranson at this point is going to start buying UFA years almost immediately. Which is where him having all those extra games of experience accrued compared to his natural player calibre cohorts could really bite us in the ass. Because he started in the NHL so young and notched so many games early...he'll be UFA eligible after next season. Which means, should Gudbranson's camp think he could fetch more on the open market as a UFA (and i think there's a good chance he would)...his camp can effectively throw out all the RFA comps altogether. Not hard for his camp to get him to open market very soon.
In which case, all bets are off really. If negotiations go down that road, negotiating with UFAs or impending UFAs is a crapshoot and can obviously get extremely pricey in a hurry. I really hope that's not where this goes...but it's certainly a possibility. That possibility is where rather than nickle and diming him over maybe $200k per year, it might be better/cheaper in the long-run to concede a little bit and not to force the issue down the path of Gudbranson going to UFA.
Really, that little 1-year extension from Florida made this situation a lot worse. But it is what it is i guess.
