Player Discussion: Erik Gudbranson | Part 4

[Rotting Corpse*]

I don't think going back that far matters. Current staff with no experience was a failure and in my opinion the ownership group won't do that again.

Well there are two positions that they filled with rookies. Benning at least had a lot of FO experience.

Fill the President's role with someone with a lot of experience and let him choose a GM with a lot of brains.

 

[F A N]

I don't think going back that far matters. Current staff with no experience was a failure and in my opinion the ownership group won't do that again.

Based on past history? Based on trends?

If there's a guy that the owners know well then I can see that happening. But to be fair, how many GMs have been hired in recent years that have GM experience? Lou, Rutherford, and McPhee weren't even guys fans were clamouring to hire and those guys weren't out of a job for long. Anyone else? The only ex GMs I can think of who is out of work but not for too long that would make a good GM are Gillis and Tallon. Of course things can change and guys can be let go but how many GMs currently managing NHL teams would you want managing the Canucks?

There's nothing wrong with the Benning and Willie hire in terms of experience. They both plied their trade. Experience doesn't have a whole lot of value unless there is a record of winning. I certainly wouldn't have given Willie's job to Gully over Green simply because Gully has experience.

 

[Hit the post]

There's nothing wrong with the Benning and Willie hire in terms of experience.

Have to wonder why it took so long for Willie to get his first gig at the NHL (granted there is alot of recycling of coaches in the NHL).

Just me, but I have a problem not so much with one particular individual, but a series of "rookies" in key management positions at the same time.

 

[Get North]

There was a great article on Florida changing their philosophy to be an advanced stats org and traded away their weak advanced stat players in Kulikov and Gudbranson. They've been making some great moves. See the Marchessault deal.

Those trades aren't really working out in their favour though (so far). Out of the playoffs by 3 points, should be doing better after the year they just had.

 

[Hit the post]

Those trades aren't really working out in their favour though (so far). Out of the playoffs by 3 points, should be doing better after the year they just had.

I think they've had a large rash of injuries (a guy like McCann no way should be playing in the NHL at the moment but did because of that).

 

[me2]

Those trades aren't really working out in their favour though (so far). Out of the playoffs by 3 points, should be doing better after the year they just had.

I don't think the trades are hurting them. It is their forwards not stepping up (injury and form), Marchessault aside. Ekblad could be better too.

I have a lot more faith in them turning it around than I do the Canucks.

 

[arttk]

Those trades aren't really working out in their favour though (so far). Out of the playoffs by 3 points, should be doing better after the year they just had.

Bjustad amd Huberdeau both injured, that's gotta hurt big time. Not to mention Jagr is finally old.

 

[geebaan]

Bjustad amd Huberdeau both injured, that's gotta hurt big time. Not to mention Jagr is finally old.

Big one for me. He was a stick that stirred the drink for them last year, and hasn't looked nearly as good so far.

 

[timw33]

Would very happily give Gudbranson a QO and nothing more. Would gladly go to arbitration—IMO he has zero leverage because the arbitrator isn't going to value "intangibles, big physical player, leadership". They are going to look at comparables and raw statistics, of which he has nothing.


This is a player you need to play hardball with.

 

[arttk]

Big one for me. He was a stick that stirred the drink for them last year, and hasn't looked nearly as good so far.

I mean he is 45.

 

[arttk]

Would very happily give Gudbranson a QO and nothing more. Would gladly go to arbitration—IMO he has zero leverage because the arbitrator isn't going to value "intangibles, big physical player, leadership". They are going to look at comparables and raw statistics, of which he has nothing.


This is a player you need to play hardball with.

Remember who we lowered Raymond's pay during arbritration? We should do that with Gub. He puts up less than 10 pts a year, good luck making a case that he deserves his QO.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

Yeah this is one of those rare cases where the team could actually elect for arbitration.

Guys like Methot and Fayne signed as UFA are not allowed to be used as comparables in arbitration and any other defensemen who have as few points over the past few years as RealGud are guys like Brenden Dillon and Ian Cole making well short of 4M, let alone 5M.

Since 2013-2014 only 10 defensemen have played 200+ games and put up fewer than 40 points.

Mark Fayne 216 GP / 27 P / 3.625M (UFA)
Mark Stuart 211 GP / 30 P / 2.625M (UFA)
Josh Gorges 210 GP / 32 P / 3.9M (RFA about to become UFA. Also ouch.)
Nick Schultz 239 GP / 33 P / 2.25M (UFA)
Erik Gudbranson 227 GP / 34 P / ???? (currently 3.5M)
Barret Jackman 232 GP / 35 P / Retired (2M last contract, bought out.)
Nicklas Grossmann 207 GP / 35 P / Unsigned (575K last contract, terminated.)
Brenden Dillon 257 GP / 39 P / 3.27M (RFA, 3 seasons from UFA)
Deryk Engelland 224 GP / 39 P / 2.916M (UFA)
Carl Gunnarsson 231 GP / 39 P / 2.9M

These are the guy's peers, production-wise. Not one of them is above 4M and only the ones who were signed as UFA or about to enter UFA make more than his current 3.5M salary.

How much of a beast must he be defensively to make up for the fact that this is his peer group, and is he really that much of a beast? I am skeptical, and I highly doubt his agent could convince an arbitrator.

 

[timw33]

I think an arbitrator would be hard pressed to see a defensive beast if they do in fact use advanced statistics. Maybe they use stupid things like blocks or +/- but he wont have any advantage there either.

If Gudbranson gets any kind of extension before the QO deadline, and it's more than $3-3.5MM a year, then this is a total cluster*** of a signing.

Offer him the QO, if he takes it, great, then he becomes a deadline deal next year most likely. If not, arbitration, he'll get a crummy award, and we take the 2 year deal to get an extra year of control we wouldn't have had through QO.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

I think an arbitrator would be hard pressed to see a defensive beast if they do in fact use advanced statistics. Maybe they use stupid things like blocks or +/- but he wont have any advantage there either.

If Gudbranson gets any kind of extension before the QO deadline, and it's more than $3-3.5MM a year, then this is a total cluster*** of a signing.

Offer him the QO, if he takes it, great, then he becomes a deadline deal next year most likely. If not, arbitration, he'll get a crummy award, and we take the 2 year deal to get an extra year of control we wouldn't have had through QO.

This is, almost exactly, what we were saying about Luca Sbisa in November 2014.

 

[timw33]

This is, almost exactly, what we were saying about Luca Sbisa in November 2014.

I hate this management so much. Just constantly handing out extensions to players with ZERO leverage and terrible production.

 

[Ubik]

I think it would be a steal for the Canucks to get Guddy signed on a down year like this.

He can be a a good defensemen in the league. He is sound defensively, and he can eat up minutes when he is on his game. Cheap NHL dmen are not easy to find.

 

[bossram]

I think it would be a steal for the Canucks to get Guddy signed on a down year like this.

He can be a a good defensemen in the league. He is sound defensively, and he can eat up minutes when he is on his game. Cheap NHL dmen are not easy to find.

It's not a down year. It's like...every year.

Because he's not that good.

 

[F A N]

Have to wonder why it took so long for Willie to get his first gig at the NHL (granted there is alot of recycling of coaches in the NHL).

Willie actually didn't take that long of a time if you consider only his WHL, AHL, and NHL work. Essentially 8 years as a WHL head coach. 2 years as an NHL assistant, 2 years in the AHL. Plus, after one year as an NHL assistant, he was a finalist for the Dallas job before it went to Gully and that's basically after 10 years of coaching in those leagues. Apparently most Stars fans felt Willie should have been the pick.

For comparisons sake, a younger guy like Todd McLellan spent 6 years in the WHL, 5 years in the minors, 3 years as an NHL assistant, before getting a NHL head coaching gig. Same with DeBoer who spent 13 years as an OHL head coach before getting his first NHL head coach gig. AV spent 7+ years in the QMJHL and 4 years as an NHL assistant before getting his first NHL head coach gig.

Offer him the QO, if he takes it, great, then he becomes a deadline deal next year most likely. If not, arbitration, he'll get a crummy award, and we take the 2 year deal to get an extra year of control we wouldn't have had through QO.

This is, almost exactly, what we were saying about Luca Sbisa in November 2014.

You can't elect a 2 year term because 1) it's not available when a player is 1 year away from UFA, and 2) in a club-elected arbitration the player decides the term.

 

[me2]

I think an arbitrator would be hard pressed to see a defensive beast if they do in fact use advanced statistics. Maybe they use stupid things like blocks or +/- but he wont have any advantage there either.

If Gudbranson gets any kind of extension before the QO deadline, and it's more than $3-3.5MM a year, then this is a total cluster*** of a signing.

Offer him the QO, if he takes it, great, then he becomes a deadline deal next year most likely. If not, arbitration, he'll get a crummy award, and we take the 2 year deal to get an extra year of control we wouldn't have had through QO.

You can't get two years if they are on their last RFA year.

 

[Diamonddog01]

Those trades aren't really working out in their favour though (so far). Out of the playoffs by 3 points, should be doing better after the year they just had.

Indeed. They've hired former Canucks Army bloggers, and embraced advanced stats by all accounts, yet the results aren't particularly good.

Have to give them credit for signing Marchessault but they seem to have taken a step backwards as a team in regards to team success.

Arizona, another pro-analytics franchise, whose moves I liked more than Florida's, is now dead last. Thus far the results simply aren't there.

 

[Catamarca Livin]

Indeed. They've hired former Canucks Army bloggers, and embraced advanced stats by all accounts, yet the results aren't particularly good.

Have to give them credit for signing Marchessault but they seem to have taken a step backwards as a team in regards to team success.

Arizona, another pro-analytics franchise, whose moves I liked more than Florida's, is now dead last. Thus far the results simply aren't there.

Results don't matter they hired young managers that know advanced stats, that means they are smart. Everyone else is dumb. There is little to no evidence that advanced stats were used in building any winners in the NHl. Information is good but this dogmatic approach to how to build a team using stats first and philosophy second is misguided. First decide what type of team you want to be then use information to build that team. Do not go with we are going to get the best 20 players available based on individual advanced stats. What type of team shoes Florida or Phonix want to be ? Are they boston L.a. Or Chicago Pittsburgh?

 

[Ryp37]

Florida started the year with no Huberdeau, Bjugstad or Luongo but sure.

 

[Fat Tony]

Are they boston L.a. Or Chicago Pittsburgh?

LA goes so far as to use an analytical approach to predict likelihood of injuries to specific players. Chicago was the only NHL team in ESPN's top 10 ranking of strength of analytics staff across 4 major leagues.

 

[austropanther]

Bjustad amd Huberdeau both injured, that's gotta hurt big time. Not to mention Jagr is finally old.

I don't think the trades are hurting them. It is their forwards not stepping up (injury and form), Marchessault aside. Ekblad could be better too.

I have a lot more faith in them turning it around than I do the Canucks.

Those trades aren't really working out in their favour though (so far). Out of the playoffs by 3 points, should be doing better after the year they just had.

I think they've had a large rash of injuries (a guy like McCann no way should be playing in the NHL at the moment but did because of that).

Missing Huberdeau is the biggest issue - he is so good at cycling and protecting the puck, therefore perfectly with Barkov and Jagr and in this way giving the D a lot more time to breath.

Marchessault and Sceviour were great while nobody of the old guard was producing. But it is/was not sustainable by either of them.

The D looks a lot more mobile, but the big topic is toughness - not exceptionally physical but just making it hard overall for the opposition. This is where Guds is solid and can be counted upon, so he is missed by some Panthers fans.

BTW, Guds never asked for 5 million bucks. It was twittered by George Richards, one of the most knowledgeable journalists of the Panthers, but taken back shortly after. Nobody knows how much he asked for.

If he asked last year/asks next year for what he currently gets right know, I guess nobody would/will complain.

 

[sting101]

Would very happily give Gudbranson a QO and nothing more. Would gladly go to arbitration—IMO he has zero leverage because the arbitrator isn't going to value "intangibles, big physical player, leadership". They are going to look at comparables and raw statistics, of which he has nothing.


This is a player you need to play hardball with.

but if you do that he is going to be a UFA the next summer