Player Discussion: Player Development

[Buffdog]

Jets let a player superior to hedman go for nothing

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(not a serious post, just how ridiculous some of these stats are)

Hey.. if a graph or model says something, it MUST be true lol

 

[DRW204]

Hey.. if a graph or model says something, it MUST be true lol

don't worry. collin miller is better than hedman too. just needed our coach staff to realize it last year instead of playing pionk, stanley, or schmidt. maybe he wins the conn smythe!

 

[Buffdog]

don't worry. collin miller is better than hedman too. just needed our coach staff to realize it last year instead of playing pionk, stanley, or schmidt. maybe he wins the conn smythe!

Our coach last year was an old, stubborn dinosaur who didn't know anything about stats, so he wouldn't have known that Miller is, in fact, better than Hedman

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Or, maybe nino was a bit of a late bloomer. I look at a guy like Tanev, who was given a ton of opportunity here as a guy who may not have even made the nhl of he was in another teams system, especially one that was in win mode. After a lot of opportunity and reps, he seemed to take a step none of us right possible and started to produce offense, making him a highly sought after player.

It's so hard to predict which players have more in them, what their ceilings are, and when they are going to 'get it'.

As much as Stanley is dragged here he does have attributes that could lend him to reach a higher level. We could nice him and he could flip that switch and realize more of the potential the org obviously sees in him.

I think we tend to oversimplify player development as fans.

Nino was a #5 overall and highly productive in both junior and the Isles AHL system, so I don’t know if he quite fits into the late bloomer category. To me he fits in the category you see with a lot of young players that teams give up on too soon: not quite capable of top6/PP minutes, more than capable in reduced roles but takes a backseat to veteran players with much less upside.

When I think late bloomer I think of someone like Chara. Nowhere near dominant in junior, barely capable as an NHL dman early in his career, but starting putting it all together in his mid 20s. A lot of goalies also fall into that late bloomer category as well. Mostly because goalies are just weirdos.

I agree with you that most fans tend to oversimplify player development. I would also argue that “player development” gets buzz worded a lot around HF and other parts, when I think the issue is really more about blind spots and biases among hockey operations vs. a true question of development.

 

[Flair Hay]

What data suggests the Jets aren’t doing a great job evaluating talent

As I look back on this I don't think there really is. You're right.

I think my only real point is that Pionk seems to be really overvalued/played by the team and everything else is a trickle down effect from that.

Like the Jets are probably right that all the same names we've been discussing are all pretty interchangeable complimentary guys depending on how they fit into your systems. Ville, Kovacevic, Chisholm, Stanley, Miller. We would all rank the 5 differently I'm sure.

Where I think there is a big blind spot is that Pionk probably fits into that tier as well, but we continue to play him as a #2/3

Probably more a coaching issue than development issue. Thank you for calling me on that.

Jets let a player superior to hedman go for nothing

View attachment 896056



(not a serious post, just how ridiculous some of these stats are)

Yeah obviously top pair guys should be compared to other top pair guys, 2nd pair vs 2nd pair and 3rd pair vs 3rd pair. I think the stats are pretty useful but a filter on these stats may have been helpful for the cause

 

[Jet]

As I look back on this I don't think there really is. You're right.

I think my only real point is that Pionk seems to be really overvalued/played by the team and everything else is a trickle down effect from that.

Like the Jets are probably right that all the same names we've been discussing are all pretty interchangeable complimentary guys depending on how they fit into your systems. Ville, Kovacevic, Chisholm, Stanley, Miller. We would all rank the 5 differently I'm sure.

Where I think there is a big blind spot is that Pionk probably fits into that tier as well, but we continue to play him as a #2/3

Probably more a coaching issue than development issue. Thank you for calling me on that.


Yeah obviously top pair guys should be compared to other top pair guys, 2nd pair vs 2nd pair and 3rd pair vs 3rd pair. I think the stats are pretty useful but a filter on these stats may have been helpful for the cause

I feel like the org/ staff are keying in on specific metrics or play from Neal than we are. We also really haven't had a guy that can play that top role, especially at rhd that Neal is playing.

Id love to see Miller surprise this fall and play his way into that role, maybe with Heinola, letting Sammy and Pionk take the 3rd pair.

 

[Flair Hay]

I feel like the org/ staff are keying in on specific metrics or play from Neal than we are. We also really haven't had a guy that can play that top role, especially at rhd that Neal is playing.

Id love to see Miller surprise this fall and play his way into that role, maybe with Heinola, letting Sammy and Pionk take the 3rd pair.

Agreed on every point

 

[WolfHouse]

There are some stats that paint Pionk in a positive light.

But most metrics point to him being a net negative. And at times a pretty significant one.

Not like we had a choice with Trouba. No sense comparing him and Pionk any more.

Where I think it relates to plater development is - how are we evaluating our defensemen? Because there is a lot of data that would suggest this is a case where we aren't doing a great job of evaluating some of our own defensemen.

Maybe that's more on coaching than player development.

I can see 'how' Chevy offered him that contract - his first year here was pretty impressive but he's pretty much become the player that he was in New York - offensive Dman who wears down through the season and makes more and more mistakes as the season progresses... sometimes the player is just what he is and 'development' has nothing to do with it

Probably the best case for the Jets is to find a reliable 3rd pairing and cut down Pionk's usage... but Arniel was deploying the defence last year so I doubt that happens

 

[WolfHouse]

Jets let a player superior to hedman go for nothing

View attachment 896056



(not a serious post, just how ridiculous some of these stats are)

Would be interesting to see this chart based on icetime - like compare the D who played 100-1200 mins a season and then the guys who played 1800-2000 mins a season... I suspect the rankings would make a fair bit of sense

 

[Flair Hay]

I can see 'how' Chevy offered him that contract - his first year here was pretty impressive but he's pretty much become the player that he was in New York - offensive Dman who wears down through the season and makes more and more mistakes as the season progresses... sometimes the player is just what he is and 'development' has nothing to do with it

Probably the best case for the Jets is to find a reliable 3rd pairing and cut down Pionk's usage... but Arniel was deploying the defence last year so I doubt that happens

Yeah I think that in Bowness system the D are asked to jump into the rush more. I think his skating gets exposed more than in Maurice system that was more conservative post 2020.

Love his attitude and his edge. It's hard for dmen to be top 4 guys if they aren't big or elite skaters.

He seems like he would be a solid 3rd pair guy when fatigue and PK aren't weighing him down that little bit extra.

Would be interesting to see this chart based on icetime - like compare the D who played 100-1200 mins a season and then the guys who played 1800-2000 mins a season... I suspect the rankings would make a fair bit of sense

That's what I was thinking

 

[voyageur]

There are some stats that paint Pionk in a positive light.

But most metrics point to him being a net negative. And at times a pretty significant one.

Not like we had a choice with Trouba. No sense comparing him and Pionk any more.

Where I think it relates to plater development is - how are we evaluating our defensemen? Because there is a lot of data that would suggest this is a case where we aren't doing a great job of evaluating some of our own defensemen.

Maybe that's more on coaching than player development.

Personally I think it's hard to find cornerstone d-men beyond the top 10 draft picks, good d-man yes, but the kind you build your team around, guys like Hedman, Letang, Makar, Heiskanen, Hughes, Bouchard...Jets are a middle of the pack team, they built around a guy like Mc Avoy...Josh Morrissey was the right guy to build around, after Buff. Supporting cast I don't know...I like Samberg, Salomonsson, and Frej as 2nd rd picks...Hard to say what Stanley or Heinola would have done with Buff to influence their game...De Melo and Pionk are now the 2 and 3 guys, a team more attractive as a market probably would have better options, so draft and develop it is. The Dillon and Schmidt era was a relatively short one, here for a good time not a long time.

 

[Flair Hay]

Personally I think it's hard to find cornerstone d-men beyond the top 10 draft picks, good d-man yes, but the kind you build your team around, guys like Hedman, Letang, Makar, Heiskanen, Hughes, Bouchard...Jets are a middle of the pack team, they built around a guy like Mc Avoy...Josh Morrissey was the right guy to build around, after Buff. Supporting cast I don't know...I like Samberg, Salomonsson, and Frej as 2nd rd picks...Hard to say what Stanley or Heinola would have done with Buff to influence their game...De Melo and Pionk are now the 2 and 3 guys, a team more attractive as a market probably would have better options, so draft and develop it is. The Dillon and Schmidt era was a relatively short one, here for a good time not a long time.

Agree with everything you say here

 

[DRW204]

Personally I think it's hard to find cornerstone d-men beyond the top 10 draft picks, good d-man yes, but the kind you build your team around, guys like Hedman, Letang, Makar, Heiskanen, Hughes, Bouchard...Jets are a middle of the pack team, they built around a guy like Mc Avoy...Josh Morrissey was the right guy to build around, after Buff. Supporting cast I don't know...I like Samberg, Salomonsson, and Frej as 2nd rd picks...Hard to say what Stanley or Heinola would have done with Buff to influence their game...De Melo and Pionk are now the 2 and 3 guys, a team more attractive as a market probably would have better options, so draft and develop it is. The Dillon and Schmidt era was a relatively short one, here for a good time not a long time.

not sure how you define cornerstone but there's plenty of examples of v good to elite dmen who were beyond top-10 picks some not even 1st rounders.

from a Jets POV you're probably right. they have yet to develop a consistent high-performing top-4D outside of the 1st, & one outside the top-10.

 

[voyageur]

not sure how you define cornerstone but there's plenty of examples of v good to elite dmen who were beyond top-10 picks some not even 1st rounders.

from a Jets POV you're probably right. they have yet to develop a consistent high-performing top-4D outside of the 1st, & one outside the top-10.

Besides Trouba and Morrissey, the Jets did not hit on d-men in the past, the likes of Serville, Kostalek, Glover, Nogier, Cederholm, Yuen, Luke Green etc.

They have shown patience with defensemen...the overagers like Poolman and Kovacevic didn't make the NHL until 24 y/o, Poolman developed to be a regular by 26 y/o, or the same age Stanley is this year.

I'd be interested the take of some folks if there was a change of scouting or direction, from 2017 on, towards better skating d-men..Also interesting that Samberg was the first defenseman drafted with a 2nd round pick, something that has become more frequent since. Seems more likely to find an NHLer with a 2nd round pick than a 3rd, but there's always some gems, if you can find them and polish them.