Confirmed Trade: [PIT/ANA] Rickard Rakell (@65%) for Zach Aston-Reese, Dominik Simon, Calle Clang, and 2022 2nd round pick

[orby]

Then why not get rid of them instead? After all, if they're not scoring, they're generally giving up goals against.

And therefore getting rid of two of the players who have the most consistent effort is a bad idea.
(Incidentally, inconsistent defense isn't always effort-based (some players just aren't smart enough to anticipate plays), but in this case it is.)

Was Aston-Reese giving a good effort every night? Certainly. Is he a special player in any way? I really don't think so. He is a competent fourth liner who is good at defense. I certainly don't think the team was relying on him in any way - in fact, despite some Pens' fans insistence that Sullivan was overyplaying him, ZAR's average time on ice dropped by over a minute and a half this season compared to last. Insinuating he is some kind of key cog in the machine based on cherrypicked stats from a playoff series that the Pens didn't even win seems like grasping at straws to me.

As for Simon...well...there was another poster on here a while back who was really broken up that the Pens traded away Sam Lafferty, because it would negatively impact their "team toughness." That was, of course, in spite of Lafferty being a pure depth player who would never sniff the ice if the Pens had a healthy lineup. This is a similar situation. Arguing that Simon's effort level would be any kind of an X factor in the playoffs despite his being the 14th forward on the depth chart is, frankly, silly.

If you are relying on guys like ZAR and Simon to play elite shutdown roles in order to secure your cup contender status...your team has deeper issues.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

By what? XGA? Who gives a shit.

Okay, what's your basis for saying he's been an excellent defensive player his entire career?

 

[Riptide]

NYR didnt match this? Puzzling our package was the one that got it done (insert dick (jokes) here). Feel like Rakell is gonna do a Jeff Carter turnaround with a fire lit under him being on a contender with something to play for now. He already showed slight improvement this year with the motivation of another contract. Just weird Ducks couldnt get assets better than what we gave up here

Other then Giroux and maybe Chiarot, most of the pending UFAs had meh returns. It's almost like GMs are finally getting smart about not overpaying for guys who'll only be around for 4 months.

 

[Empoleon8771]

ZAR's career playoff goal differential was -9 in 23 games (6 goals for, 15 goals against). I don't care how good his regular season defensive analytics are, he was obviously a drag on this team's ability to win over the last 4 playoffs.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Was Aston-Reese giving a good effort every night? Certainly. Is he a special player in any way? I really don't think so.

I do think so.
(He's slipped some since last season but still pretty good.)

 

[Peat]

Eh the Penguins had a team xGA/60 of 1.99 at 5v5 last year. That was the 3rd best in the playoffs after Toronto and Edmonton, both of who also were among the top in terms of GA/60.

The Penguins were the only team in the playoffs last year that got scored on way more than what their analytics suggested. Everyone else was fairly close, the Penguins were over a goal apart.

I watched the goals back in the summer, there was some brutal defending. Expected goals is useful but not always accurate and particularly brutal errors are usually part of why.

And I don't want to overstate this case. Jarry wasn't good enough, period, and got worse and worse as his confidence slipped, also period, and if we'd swapped goalies we'd have gone through, equally period. But that fact shouldn't be used to hide failings elsewhere.


edit: Also it's completely inconsistent to say "xGA good, we were good" and then ignore ZAR's xGA to focus on raw goal differentials which we know can have a ton of different reasons. Not that I care enough to go look at the goals scored while ZAR was on ice, but still.

Which is probably my cue to do something more useful with my life than go rechew this.

 

[Icarium]

I also don't live in the 1980s.

The 1980s? Quick question - how many of the recent Cup winners were better defensively than offensively?
Second question - did the teams which (sort of) fit the description have a perennial Selke candidate as their top line center or their best defensive player was a 4th liner with great analytics instead?
Or to phrase it another way - Sidney Crosby isn't going to magically turn into Patrice Bergeron, regardless of whether ZAR, Simon or the ghost of Bob Gainey is part of the Penguins roster or not. Bemoaning ZAR's departure because you were hoping that this transformation was somehow going to happen is bizarre.

 

[Darren McCord]

I wouldn't define Carter as defensively-minded. He's all right in a pinch but is not consistently good enough at it.

Eight. Maybe seven, if you don't count Carter,

LOL 7? 8?
Go back and watch the devils cups then.
Name the 8 defensive forwards on Tampa. Then 8 on Caps. Maybeeee you find that many on the blues but I doubt it.

 

[orby]

I do think so.
(He's slipped some since last season but still pretty good.)

This is where advanced analytics have to be tempered with reasonable analysis. Do you really think a fourth liner who is playing 13 minutes a game is one of the most important defensive forwards in the league?

 

[Gurglesons]

Okay, what's your basis for saying he's been an excellent defensive player his entire career?

A combination of eye test, championship and regular season success, usage, and analytics.

You realize you are basically proclaiming the new age Craig Adams is essential to our success, right?

 

[OtherThingsILike]

The 1980s? Quick question - how many of the recent Cup winners were better defensively than offensively?
Second question - did the teams which (sort of) fit the description have a perennial Selke candidate as their top line center or their best defensive player was a 4th liner with great analytics instead?
Or to phrase it another way - Sidney Crosby isn't going to magically turn into Patrice Bergeron, regardless of whether ZAR, Simon or the ghost of Bob Gainey is part of the Penguins roster or not. Bemoaning ZAR's departure because you were hoping that this transformation was somehow going to happen is bizarre.

That's a little bit of a Catch-22, because the Cup winners with the perennial Selke candidates are the ones who are better at defense.
But it raises the question, were they better at defense because they had perennial Selke candidates, or did they make an effort to become better at defense because they thought it fit their teams better?

 

[Icarium]

No offense to advance stats fans but any statistic showing that ZAR is almost as good defensively as Danault is more useless than horoscopes and alchemy as far as I am concerned.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

A combination of eye test, championship and regular season success, usage, and analytics.

You realize you are basically proclaiming the new age Craig Adams is essential to our success, right?

Well, no, given that Craig Adams wasn't actually all that good at defense. He was a minus player for his entire career except for three years, when he was a +2, a +1, and a 0.

Craig Adams Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Craig Adams. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

 

[Gurglesons]

Well, no, given that Craig Adams wasn't actually all that good at defense. He was a minus player for his entire career except for three years, when he was a +2, a +1, and a 0.

Craig Adams Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of Craig Adams. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

The point is the archetype. A 4th liner that doesn't produce offensively and is solid defensively is easily replaceable.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

The point is the archetype. A 4th liner that doesn't produce offensively and is solid defensively is easily replaceable.

But the point is that Craig Adams wasn't solid defensively, and that ZAR is more than solid defensively. Not a good example of comparable players at all.

 

[Gurglesons]

But the point is that Craig Adams wasn't solid defensively, and that ZAR is more than solid defensively. Not a good example of comparable players at all.

You're missing the forest for the trees. ZAR is a player that is easily replaceable. We've been trying to find an additional top six guy since Kessel left that can produce goals next to our stars.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

You're missing the forest for the trees. ZAR is a player that is easily replaceable. We've been trying to find an additional top six guy since Kessel left that can produce goals next to our stars.

And while I am skeptical, I will be cautiously optimistic that Rakell can do that.

 

[SEALBound]

I do think so.
(He's slipped some since last season but still pretty good.)

Yeah, ZAR has great defensive analytics. Dude is an adv stat darling. No one here is arguing that. The problem is, he is currently providing zero offense and is making $1.75mil on a team that was capped out. He was the clear target to move in a deal to bring in a new player that would be more helpful to the top 6. The trade-off of "what Rakell will provide the top 6" vs "what we lose in 4th line defense from ZAR" is an easy gamble for Hextall give that we have Boyle, McGinn, DOC, Angello, etc.

When trades happen, players have to fly both ways. The FO thought Rakell would bring more to the team than ZAR. I agree. A lot of us agree. It doesn't mean ZAR is a bad player or person. It just means he's not bringing what the team currently needs at the moment. If the guy was on a 20-25g pace, he'd be here still.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Yeah, ZAR has great defensive analytics. Dude is an adv stat darling. No one here is arguing that. The problem is, he is currently providing zero offense and is making $1.75mil on a team that was capped out. He was the clear target to move in a deal to bring in a new player that would be more helpful to the top 6. The trade-off of "what Rakell will provide the top 6" vs "what we lose in 4th line defense from ZAR" is an easy gamble for Hextall give that we have Boyle, McGinn, DOC, Angello, etc.

When trades happen, players have to fly both ways. The FO thought Rakell would bring more to the team than ZAR. I agree. A lot of us agree. It doesn't mean ZAR is a bad player or person. It just means he's not bringing what the team currently needs at the moment. If the guy was on a 20-25g pace, he'd be here still.

Plenty of people are arguing that. There's tons of takes here that ZAR is easily replaceable. You're one of the few who's acknowledging that there's an actual tradeoff here.

 

[orby]

My only hesitance about this deal is that is strikes me as very similar to the David Perron trade back in 2015 (not in terms of contracts and assets moved, just in terms of the sort of player the Pens were after). At the time, Perron seemed like he was sure to put up big numbers as Crosby's winger...but he didn't, and the longer he played in Pittsburgh, the more it looked like he just kind of stunk. Of course now we know he was just a poor fit rather than a bad player - he's been stellar since returning to the Blues - but there is always a chance that a guy who seems like a good player ends up just not working out.

 

[SEALBound]

Plenty of people are arguing that. There's tons of takes here that ZAR is easily replaceable. You're one of the few who's acknowledging that there's an actual tradeoff here.

Yes, but to be clear, I'm saying the trade-off was a very easy one to make. I do believe that ZAR is easily replaceable on the roster with what we have. Let's say it's Zucker coming back from LTIR or DOC coming from WBS. Either of them may not have the defensive stats of ZAR but I don't believe the drop is going to cost us any games. In fact, the added potential offense from either could easily bridge that gap and even help us more.

As I said, if ZAR was scoring at the pace he was last year, he wouldn't have been the clear-cut cap space trade target. You can't make $1.75mil and score at a 2g pace over 82 games on a cap-strapped team looking to add scoring at the TDL...even while being "really good defensively". That said, I don't think Anaheim got a plug or anything. I think ZAR is a useful player to any roster that has adequate scoring or needs help on the 4th line or PK.

 

[The Grim Reaper]

I do think so.
(He's slipped some since last season but still pretty good.)

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I mean you allowed 3.5 goals per game against a terrible offensive team last year. Whether it was goaltending or defense, I don't think you lost because of your own scoring.

It was goaltending and an inability to score timely goals on the Isles when the games were close. Getting bad goaltending AND not getting enough offense aren't mutually exclusive.

 

[Leonardo87]

ZAR isn’t tough or an energy guy but he’s a perfectly positioned defensive player who’s very good at killing penalties. He just has no offense at all.

Good to know, the PK which was Top 5 in the league has been heavily effected with losing Deslauriers, Lindholm, and Manson. Silfverberg is also out injured. I also see he led Pittsburgh with 187 hits, that is good to know also. Ducks need more defense from their forwards. They are scoring goals this year but with the depleted D, need more defense from the forwards.

 

[Gurglesons]