OT: Pirates Talk: That Skenes guy is okay at teh baseball

[Empoleon8771]

I think Lowe is actually a pretty good comparison for Horwitz's upside, he has a similar power profile (15-20 HRs while getting a lot of doubles) and walks a ton while also being really damn good defensively for a 1B. He's what I'm hoping Horwitz can become, although I think he strikes out a bit more while also offering a bit more HR upside.

I really like Lowe so I'm surprised to see the Rangers willing to move him for so little. Garcia isn't terrible but a cost controlled reliever for a 115 OPS+ 1B with another year of control seems very light. Even compared to what Naylor just went for, it seems like a pretty poor return.

 

[BusinessGoose]

We really just need someone who can get singles, maybe doubles.. 2+ run homers are cool, but....

How many lead off guys got stranded in scoring position cause 3 knuckleheads would strikeout, last year

 

[Empoleon8771]

We really just need someone who can get singles, maybe doubles.. 2+ run homers are cool, but....

How many lead off guys got stranded in scoring position cause 3 knuckleheads would strikeout, last year

I'm actually really curious to see the batting order for next year. I think the most ideal setup would be:

1. McCutchen
2. Horwitz
3. Reynolds
4. Cruz
5. Bart
6. Gonzales
7. OF addition
8. IKF
9. Hayes

Ideally you want McCutchen and Horwitz to get on base and give Reynolds, Cruz, Bart and Gonzales opportunities to get RBIs. The issue is that Reynolds has exclusively hit in the #2 spot in the last 2 years (and most of the last 3 years), and hitters are superstitious enough that I'd be hesitant to ask him to move to the #3 spot. That said, his best professional season was in 2021 where he primarily hit #3.

 

[Empoleon8771]

 

[DJ Spinoza]

It really does seem a lot more black and white this offseason. Horowitz may be a half decent batter if what he showed last year was real, but any of Walker, Lowe, or Naylor would be a definitively better solution at 1B because they are much more proven players.

All three were acquired at the cost of modestly valuable draft picks or alright player swaps at best. All three would have simply required paying a player somewhere in the vague vicinity of the market rate for what they bring to the table, and not even over a long period.

Horowitz is who we preferred because we are too cheap to invest in building a team to surround the lucky situation we are in with Skenes. That's just boringly stating the obvious, but it's as ironclad as ever unless we do actually make a serious investment in an outfielder, i.e., essentially sign Santander or Hernandez (another obvious: we aren't).

This might be a little bit too cut and dry, but we could have had any of these three better veterans for fairly cheap in terms of acquisition cost and then still had the prospect/player capital to swing a trade for an OF. It's not that crazy to think Ortiz might have been able to net Wilyer Abreu, for instance (someone Red Sox fans seem to wishcast being dealt for Jones, which is laughable), who would have nicely complemented a lineup that had Christian Walker in the middle of it.

I don't really see any reasonable path to upside with how things stand. It's rearranging the deck chairs and trying the same types of strategies that have repeatedly been tried, or it's worse, if what's left of the offseason is a bad Keller trade + signing 3 or 4 interchangeable depth players who won't help.

 

[MrBrightside]

Because I said I'm not wading back into the Horwitz conversation, I'm not, but DJ's post is exactly right. We spent more to get a guy whose ceiling is at or below guys we could have gotten for less capital, all because they cost more.

Looking at the projected order posted by Empoleon, something that seems to be getting ignored here is that the Pirates appear to be just rolling into 2025 with Gonzales, IKF, Hayes, and Triolo as their 2B-SS-3B grouping and almost no one seems to even be suggesting upgrading from that group. Unless Hayes somehow becomes the guy he was for a month in 2020 that led everyone to have unrealistic expectations for him, the Pirates will likely have the worst IF in baseball, at least from an offensive standpoint. No power anywhere. No speed. Average to below-average on base ability. Other than the first half of 2024, IKF has never been a plus hitter or even an average hitter. Hayes was one of the worst regulars in baseball. Gonzales may have gone from bust to a marginal regular, but he's not an impact bat. Triolo probably was the worst hitter in the sport that doesn't catch or play SS. You can't win with an infield that is this completely lacking in production.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the issue in discussing the infield is both:

1. They're not moving Hayes and they just traded for IKF, so you just need to hope for the best with them.
2. The team is super cheap and aren't in a position to upgrade on more what I'd call "luxuries", which is what I'd argue upgrading on someone like Gonzales would be.

If this team was an actual contender with money to spend, there would be a discussion about the infield. But there are just way bigger fish to fry with this team, where they basically just need to hope that Gonzales progresses forward/Hayes bounces back/IKF can provide sufficient value at SS.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Without a doubt, there's a huge element of running it back with pretty much the same pieces and hoping for 20 more wins somehow

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Ikf needs to be a super sub not an every day player
Cutch and Horwitz can split DH
Still need 2 bats minimum

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Maybe I've just progressively gotten more jaded and less willing to put up with the same BS that we all know has basically characterized this team for most of our lives (even the good years under NH), but I do think the equation has been changed with Skenes.

As long as you have a healthy Skenes on your roster, you have the x-factor to win in the sprint competition that is the MLB playoffs, the kind of x-factor that you can't get otherwise and that is also genuinely rare across the league.

Of course, it's not the only thing that matters, as we saw with the Tigers in this past postseason, but it also isn't really all that difficult to sneak into the MLB playoffs given how it's set up.

That's both a blessing and a curse for us, since there's at least a sliver of hope that "run it back with rearranged deck chairs + Skenes year 2" is still good enough for a WC race, but also basically the entire reason that gives slight cover to the farce of not actually raising the payroll. Most teams seem relatively content to maintain their status quo, but the big thing with us is that it seems like we are not even going to try and make an appearance to bump up our payroll.

Literally one small move like spending 60M on Walker would have had everyone glowing about the Pirates and a bunch of positive PR about finally spending to build around Skenes. It would have been the bare minimum thing to do.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Where is the 22 million spent on Taylor Perez and Champen that should buy you a impact hitter

 

[Empoleon8771]

Ikf needs to be a super sub not an every day player
Cutch and Horwitz can split DH
Still need 2 bats minimum

McCutchen doesn't need to platoon so I don't know why McCutchen would need to do this. He was better against righties than lefties last year. The Pirates aren't going to pay IKF $7.5 million a year to be a utility guy.

The reality is that this team is just going to add one more corner OF and will be running with everything else pretty much as is. Until Nutting opens the wallet, they don't have the ability to really do much more. Which is why this team's upside is mediocrity and it won't get any better until a new owner comes in.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This has already been touched on, but Nutting being a cheap POS is a big reason why I'm supportive of trading Keller for hitting help. With Chandler looking like a top tier SP prospect and Skenes and Jones on the MLB roster, Keller seems like he'll be their #4 starter going forward and paying him that kind of money to be a #4 starter is wildly inefficient. As long as Nutting is putting hard financial constraints on the team, they can't afford to be inefficient with their spending on players.

Not only that, but both Texas and Cleveland made very similar moves in the past few days of selling off their expensive players (Lowe and Naylor) and immediately signing replacements in free agency to replace them (Pederson and Santana). This is the example I've been using a ton, but trading Keller for Kjerstad and then signing Nick Pivetta to a 1 year, $15 million deal to replace Keller would be an incredibly smart move for this team to make. I'm not as down on Keller as some people are, but I do not see it as logical to want to keep him long-term with Skenes, Jones and Chandler in the system.

Maybe you don't trade him this off-season, but I don't see an argument for keeping him beyond this year unless something bad happens with Skenes, Jones or Chandler. This team needs to be smart with its money because of Nutting's cheapness and paying a #3 starter $19 million a year when they have 3 potential aces just isn't smart.

 

[xlm34]

He was always gonna be back and it’s cool to see but the skeptic in me thinks they bust out the McCutchen news whenever the public sentiment around the team starts to turn a little nasty

 

[Empoleon8771]

Same exact deal everyone knew he'd be getting so no surprises here. Brings their payroll up to $75 million I believe. With Nutting's refusal to increase the payroll, it only leaves them with about $10 million to spend.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

McCutchen doesn't need to platoon so I don't know why McCutchen would need to do this. He was better against righties than lefties last year. The Pirates aren't going to pay IKF $7.5 million a year to be a utility guy.

The reality is that this team is just going to add one more corner OF and will be running with everything else pretty much as is. Until Nutting opens the wallet, they don't have the ability to really do much more. Which is why this team's upside is mediocrity and it won't get any better until a new owner comes in.

Because Cutch isn’t going to play 120 games even at DH and when one sits you have a quality pinch hitter
ILF can play 4 out of 5 games like Josh Harrison did covering multiple positions keeping guys fresh. They need a glove SS and Hayes to be gold glove to win with pitching and limited offense
Keller was signed to be traded figured it would be next offseason but definitely should fetch multiple hitters

 

[Empoleon8771]

Looking at Fangraphs' projections, it currently has the Pirates at $79 million in payroll with an estimated $87 million payroll last year. This includes the Jays retaining about $1.7 million on IKF's deal (I read $1.2 million so I'm curious if this is actually an overestimate), so there really isn't much wiggle room left. That $79 million could go down if the arbitration estimates ($15.9 million between Bednar, Holderman, Santana, Oviedo, Bart and Falter) come in lower, but I'm not holding my breath.

Nutting refusing to increase payroll for this year really puts a bind on them, mostly because Keller went from making $5 million to making $15 million. Increasing Keller's pay by that level and not increasing payroll is just going to make filling out the rest of the roster that much more difficult.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

How does an owner who has Skenes and his team is in a very winnable division not want to capitalize on this because the fans will come and playoff tickets sell

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the simplest answer is that Nutting is a cheap rat bastard who wants to line his pockets and doesn't care about winning.

Keller is going from a $5 million to $15 million salary while Nutting is forcing Cherington to maintain the $85 million payroll from last year. This isn't even a defense of Cherington or the job he has done, but there are no GMs who are going to have success with that. It's a huge reason why Horwitz was targeted in the first place, and I bet the premium the Pirates paid (I think Ortiz for Horwitz straight up should have been fair) was because Cleveland knew that Horwitz's pre-arb status was something they could get Cherington to overpay for.

If Nutting is going to push for their core guys to be extended (which he did push for both with Reynolds and Keller, he needs to at least minimum increase payroll by the amount the core guys are getting paid more. It's wildly scummy behavior that seems to be Nutting going for good PR by extending these guys, while forcing his GM to figure out the rest and letting him face the criticism when the team doesn't get better. "I'm giving him money to keep the best players, it's him that's not filling out the team around them!" while conveniently not mentioning that Nutting isn't giving Cherington the money to fill out the team around them.

Nutting is really the worst kind of owner in that he's both meddling and cheap. It's the absolute worst combination.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I don't think Nutting knows much, or cares much about baseball. He's raking in huge profits thanks to revenue sharing. That's the bounty for not trying to compete while almost always underselling our legitimate trade pieces.

When Skenes gets dealt, he should basically empty the other team's prospect pool and we'll end up getting a Cole like return while a major market team adds the best arm in baseball in his mid 20's, with a price tag that isn't even extravagant (even at arb, he'll be bargain for NY/LA).