OT: Pirates Talk: That Skenes guy is okay at teh baseball

[Empoleon8771]

The stats you provided are showing that Skenes performed better than all of them as rookies.

No they didn’t?

OPS+ and ERA+ aren’t one to one comparisons for player value. Hitters also have defense and baserunning value. Hence why all of their WARs are comparable and Judge is much higher.

Yeah, I'm only onboard for keeping Bart 1000%, Oviedo for sure, Falter was better than okay AT TIMES, and.... with Holderman I'm iffy

Really, if they are planning up upgrade pitching I wouldn't bother with Falter or holderman but I'm pretty sure we won't, so, might as well keep our risky knowns? I think Oviedo will help a lot coming back.

Bednar and Joe played themselves off roster. BDLC was useless in one thing we needed him for.

Holderman is far too cheap to let go IMO. No brainer to keep both him and Falter for those costs.

 

[Fogel]

Back to some actual roster talk rather than Skenes hypotheticals, here are the Pirates guys up for arbitration and what their arbitration estimates are:

Bednar: $6 million
De La Cruz: $4 million
Joe: $3.2 million
Falter: $2.8 million
Bart: $1.8 million
Holderman: $1.4 million
Oviedo: $1.5 million

At these prices , it’s an absolute no brainer to non-tender Bednar, De La Cruz and Joe right? I could be swayed on Bednar and gambling on his potential (I kinda doubt you’d get much better in free agency for a $6 million reliever), but Joe and De La Cruz are downright inexcusable to give that kind of money to.

I would argue Bednar at 6-7M is still probably a decent gamble for the Pirates, but only if they are fairly certain that his yips were isolated to last year. If he can rebound, he is a steal at that price; the upper range of relievers is closer to 10+M and he has pitched at that level before. I believe this is his arb2 year so next year would be arb3 at a slightly below market value so if he can be flipped, it would be for 1.5 years.

The stats you provided are showing that Skenes performed better than all of them as rookies.

You aren't counting the differential between pitchers and position players in terms of playing time as well it being a a bit of a difference in scale for ERA+ and OPS+. For example, Sale had a comparable ERA+ at 209 with more innings in 2018, Verlander was 218 in 2022 and Pedro had 5 season above 200+ including a 291 in his insane 2000 season. If you are looking for a 214 OPS+ it is a lot harder; you are looking at Judge in 2022 at 210 or 2024 at 223, a McGwire in 1998 at 216 with Bonds having 6 seasons (yay roids).

It seemed like 200+ ERA+ seasons were more in line with Cy Young caliber seasons; for instance, Greinke has 2 seasons, Maddux has 2, Clemens has 3. A full season of 200+ OPS+ seemed more in line with historic seasons; for example, Cabrera, Trout, Pujols, Rodriguez, Griffey Jr., Clemente, Mays, Yaz, Stargell, Aaron, combine for 0.

Being twice as good as the league average in pitching seems slightly easier than batting.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I think someone would give us a 40+/45FV prospect for Bednar. He can go at that point.

I still think his stuff isn't that good. Specifically his 4-seamer is too hittable. And now the intimidation factor is gone, so I don't see him becoming a great reliever again.

Cherington probably keeps BDLC - too much invested in him from an ego standpoint. But we should be shopping for another corner OF, surely.

 

[ImporterExporter]

If hitters are more valuable than pitchers they would be paid more.

They aren't.

 

[cookthebooks]

a guy like skenes makes it highly likely he can win for you 2.5 games in any given 7 game series. no hitter in history you can say that about since all star caliber hitting is still majority futility

 

[ImporterExporter]

Nutting needs to go 8x240 for Skenes.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If hitters are more valuable than pitchers they would be paid more.

They aren't.

Doesn't Judge have the highest non-Ohtani contract ever signed?

I think someone would give us a 40+/45FV prospect for Bednar. He can go at that point.

I still think his stuff isn't that good. Specifically his 4-seamer is too hittable. And now the intimidation factor is gone, so I don't see him becoming a great reliever again.

Cherington probably keeps BDLC - too much invested in him from an ego standpoint. But we should be shopping for another corner OF, surely.

I'm honestly split on Bednar. Their bullpen is bad enough as is and Bednar's struggles last year were awful. At the same time, what are you getting in UFA for a $6 million reliever? You're really not getting anything great of value, I'm an advocate for Sewald but he's likely coming in at about $8 million and isn't really much of an upgrade on Bednar.

If they can trade Bednar for a younger cost controlled reliever and also sign Sewald in free agency, I think I'd do that. At the same time, I don't think I'd get rid of him just for the sake of getting rid of him. It would be one thing if he was a depth starter (which the Pirates have in spades), but they really don't have any high leverage arms to replace Bednar.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Doesn't Judge have the highest non-Ohtani contract ever signed?

Yes, and Ohtani got paid for his hitting ability honestly.

Then Soto. Then Harper. Then Trout.

A 5-WAR guaranteed position player is easily as valuable as a top pitcher, with less injury volatility.
That said, with Skenes I would look to trade 3 years of extra time at ~$100M for a guarantee.

Skenes' alternative is:
Yr1: ~$1M
Yr2: ~$1M
Yr3: $10M
Yr4: $20M
Yr5: $30M
Yr6: FA

I'd instead go:
Yr1 (2025): $8M
Yr2: $12M
Yr3: $20M
Yr4: $25M
Yr5: $25M
Yr6: $30M
Yr7: $30M
Yr8 (2032, age 30) : Team Option $35M, $5M Buyout
Yr9: Player Option $40M if team option triggered

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's definitely not something I'm buying will happen, but there have been a couple of insiders linking the Pirates to Walker as a potential fit. I think it's more speculation that hard reporting, but Walker would be an amazing acquisition to fill the 1B spot.

The nice thing about Walker is how consistent he has been. He missed a bit of time last year, but the dude has been a consistent 30 HR, 120 OPS+ and gold glove winner for the last 3 years. You know you're getting a .250/.330/.480 slash line with gold glove defense at 1B out of him.

 

[Fogel]

If hitters are more valuable than pitchers they would be paid more.

They aren't.

Largest MLB Contracts | Baseball-Reference.com

Largest MLB Contracts

www.baseball-reference.com

Top 20 total contract value: 17/20 are hitters.
Top 20 AAV: 13/20 hitters are hitters.

a guy like skenes makes it highly likely he can win for you 2.5 games in any given 7 game series. no hitter in history you can say that about since all star caliber hitting is still majority futility

I think the days of possibly getting in 3 games is gone since they now do a 2-3-2 schedule, not the 2-2-1-1-1 they used to. This years schedule was 10/25, 10/26, 10/28, 10/29, 10/30, 11/1, and 11/2. Assuming 5 days rest like he did last season, he would start Game 1 and 6. There is no shot that he enters Game 7 on 0 days rest. I think with the old schedule, there was a possibility of going Games 1, 4 then 7 on short rest.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Non tender De La Cruz and sign Hays instead. Absolute no brainer of a move.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Non tender De La Cruz and sign Hays instead. Absolute no brainer of a move.

Hays doesn’t really fit as anything more than a 4th OF whose splits say 1st half platoon RF

 

[ImporterExporter]

If Nutting spends enough money to sign Christian Walker, I'll film myself eating a piece of my own shit.

The only money this franchise should be allocating is for Skenes over the next decade.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Hays doesn’t really fit as anything more than a 4th OF whose splits say 1st half platoon RF

From 2021 through 2023, Hays had a 109 OPS+ and averaged 3.1 bWAR per 162 games. Even last year in his down year, he still finished with a 101 OPS+

He also doesn't have a severe lefty/righty split, so I don't know why he's somehow only a platoon bat. His career OPS against righties is .719 and his career OPS against lefties is .800.

 

[BusinessGoose]

If Nutting spends enough money to sign Christian Walker, I'll film myself eating a piece of my own shit.

The only money this franchise should be allocating is for Skenes over the next decade.

View attachment 934183

How big a piece are we talking here??

 

[bigdaddyk88]

From 2021 through 2023, Hays had a 109 OPS+ and averaged 3.1 bWAR per 162 games. Even last year in his down year, he still finished with a 101 OPS+

He also doesn't have a severe lefty/righty split, so I don't know why he's somehow only a platoon bat. His career OPS against righties is .719 and his career OPS against lefties is .800.

He had 150 or less ab against lefties in 2022 and 23 he played mostly in Lf and hit 2nd or 6th

 

[ImporterExporter]

How big a piece are we talking here??

Solid or mashed shit?

 

[Empoleon8771]

He had 150 or less ab against lefties in 2022 and 23 he played mostly in Lf and hit 2nd or 6th

How does that support the idea that he’s a platoon bat? He’s a righty that’s better against lefties, if he was actually a platoon bat, he’d be only playing against lefties.

I also don’t see how him playing LF has anything to do with whether he’s a platoon hitter.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

How does that support the idea that he’s a platoon bat? He’s a righty that’s better against lefties, if he was actually a platoon bat, he’d be only playing against lefties.

I also don’t see how him playing LF has anything to do with whether he’s a platoon hitter.

Trying to figure out how he would fit in here. So knowing he played more lf than anything else does not help us.
I would rather they go get a impact bat

 

[Empoleon8771]

Trying to figure out how he would fit in here. So knowing he played more lf than anything else does not help us.
I would rather they go get a impact bat

Hays would be a RF replacement for De La Cruz. It’s mostly just not re-signing him and going with Hays instead because Hays has shown a higher upside than De La Cruz.

I can’t imagine he’d cost more than like $4 or $5 million, which is where De La Cruz’s arbitration is already projected at

 

[Empoleon8771]

Great news. I was supportive of the DLC addition but he was a total dud and they couldn’t justify putting him through arbitration.

 

[Factorial]

Hopefully they told Bednar to work out and not eat ho ho's all winter so he comes to camp in shape unlike last year,

Great news. I was supportive of the DLC addition but he was a total dud and they couldn’t justify putting him through arbitration.

No losses there.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Hopefully they told Bednar to work out and not eat ho ho's all winter so he comes to camp in shape unlike last year,



No losses there.

Getting rid of 2 replacement players that were projected to make $7.5 million combined was definitely a no brainer.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Getting rid of 2 replacement players that were projected to make $7.5 million combined was definitely a no brainer.

Joe was one of their worst players after April. A massive disappointment.

I guess we are in the market for corner OF again. I saw a couple predictions that they would go after Tyler O'Neil. That would be awesome.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Most of the positive moves that this organization tends to make feel like step 1 or even step 0 to something that needs to be bigger.

Clearing the roster spots of guys who aren't going to make an impact (or worse) like BDLC or Joe is a good thing. Purely stating the obvious, but the needed next step is finding something on offense that is going to be actual impact.

Even if we take a swing at a BDLC/Joe type reclamation/upside who is two years younger, that's not enough. Personally, I am pessimistic that we'll do anything like that. I don't have the energy to dream up potential possible scenarios -- it's signing Santander, or boldly figuring out some way to trade a guy like Jones or Chandler for a meaningful bat, etc. We'll see.