OT: Pirates Talk: That Skenes guy is okay at teh baseball
- Thread starter Zirakzigil
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Empoleon8771
Registered User
The narrative trying to push Merrill over Skenes down the stretch was hilarious, it was literally just "the Padres are a better team than the Pirates". Glad the voters didn't fall for it.
That said, Merrill deserved the ROY over both of the guys in the AL that finished #1 and #2. Kinda sucks for him because he also had a ROY caliber season.
That said, Merrill deserved the ROY over both of the guys in the AL that finished #1 and #2. Kinda sucks for him because he also had a ROY caliber season.
The argument I saw more of was "but he's an everyday player!!!". Which might have some merit if he was among the best in the game overall, like Skenes is/was. There's just no way to justify his good/great season over Skenes' historic/generational one.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Reading the comments around the web from most non Pirates fans is just depressing. People are f***ing moronic and blind homers.
On one hand, backed by actual real data, you can point to 1 player having a historic, ALL TIME great rookie year, at the hardest position in baseball. A 22 year old who started the AS game and will finish top 3 in CY voting.
On the other hand, you have a player, who had a great year, but it was NOT historic in any way compared to other position players (rookies) over the past 100+ years.
And it doesn't matter. People are just ignorant f***ing clowns incapable of digesting logic.
On one hand, backed by actual real data, you can point to 1 player having a historic, ALL TIME great rookie year, at the hardest position in baseball. A 22 year old who started the AS game and will finish top 3 in CY voting.
On the other hand, you have a player, who had a great year, but it was NOT historic in any way compared to other position players (rookies) over the past 100+ years.
And it doesn't matter. People are just ignorant f***ing clowns incapable of digesting logic.
BusinessGoose
Registered User
Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
Maybe you will be a believer when they sign Soto and Sasaki. That would be a crazy top of the rotation.
bigdaddyk88
Registered User
- Apr 21, 2019
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Especially when the pirates don’t get a bonus pick or bonus international money with him winning
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Oh, and don't forget Skenes hits FA 1 year earlier. So, in all likelihood, he'll be traded 3-4 years from now.
Unless of course Nutting decides to invest a couple hundred million on top of the near quarter billion he already gave out to Reynolds, Keller, and coughHayescough.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
I still think Pirates fans are far too dismissive of the idea that this team could sign Skenes, they just won’t be giving him a lifetime deal. This team has no chance of competing with Skenes in a UFA deal, but Skenes is so young that he’ll be hitting UFA super early. You could feasibly give him a deal that eats up his arb years and gives you a few UFA years, which still lets Skenes get his mega UFA in his late 20s.
The Pirates could get Skenes signed to a 6-8 year deal at money below $200 million, and based on the Hayes deal, it would likely be a fairly constant $20-$25 million a year rather than going cheap in arb and paying him UFA money after. Those deals have Skenes hitting UFA between 28 and 30, so he’ll still be in line to get his mega deal as a free agent.
If you want to be wildly aggressive and say his arb years are worth $95 million and his UFA worth is $40 million a year, they could make that a 7 year and $175 million deal that is just a flat $25 million a year. Skenes gets a lot of guaranteed money far earlier than he’d get it otherwise while the Pirates are still getting great value out of Skenes. The yearly money there isn’t a huge step up from what Keller is going to be making, and I figure they’d just trade Keller to be able to afford it anyway.
In reality, Skenes getting that guaranteed money up front would lower the amount of money he’d be getting in those years. I think 8 years and $160 million (flat $20 million a year) with an option extension after it could absolutely work, it just takes the Pirates being bold and aggressive for once.
The Pirates could get Skenes signed to a 6-8 year deal at money below $200 million, and based on the Hayes deal, it would likely be a fairly constant $20-$25 million a year rather than going cheap in arb and paying him UFA money after. Those deals have Skenes hitting UFA between 28 and 30, so he’ll still be in line to get his mega deal as a free agent.
If you want to be wildly aggressive and say his arb years are worth $95 million and his UFA worth is $40 million a year, they could make that a 7 year and $175 million deal that is just a flat $25 million a year. Skenes gets a lot of guaranteed money far earlier than he’d get it otherwise while the Pirates are still getting great value out of Skenes. The yearly money there isn’t a huge step up from what Keller is going to be making, and I figure they’d just trade Keller to be able to afford it anyway.
In reality, Skenes getting that guaranteed money up front would lower the amount of money he’d be getting in those years. I think 8 years and $160 million (flat $20 million a year) with an option extension after it could absolutely work, it just takes the Pirates being bold and aggressive for once.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
I mean that's all well and rosy but if you're not signing him to a 10+ year deal, what's the point?
This is, at least, a generational pitcher. Maybe even once in a lifetime if the arm holds. Allowing that to walk, knowing the monetary investment will be a great one, is exactly what Nutting will do and every human with a pulse knows it.
Pinching numbers just to eek out 1-2 years of FA seems like a wasted effort. This isn't Mitch Keller. Or Hayes, or even Reynolds.
Either pony up the cash or just trade him in a few years. And we know, based on every other great player this team has traded away, the return will pale in comparison to what we're giving up.
This is simple repetitive history spanning a generation.
Either Nutting needs to make an exception or Skenes would just need to love the low key nature of Pittsburgh and take a massive discount over what he'll get elsewhere. The latter makes no sense, especially if we're not winning games. So it comes down to Nutting and what the mafia (big market owners and MLB) wants financially.
This is, at least, a generational pitcher. Maybe even once in a lifetime if the arm holds. Allowing that to walk, knowing the monetary investment will be a great one, is exactly what Nutting will do and every human with a pulse knows it.
Pinching numbers just to eek out 1-2 years of FA seems like a wasted effort. This isn't Mitch Keller. Or Hayes, or even Reynolds.
Either pony up the cash or just trade him in a few years. And we know, based on every other great player this team has traded away, the return will pale in comparison to what we're giving up.
This is simple repetitive history spanning a generation.
Either Nutting needs to make an exception or Skenes would just need to love the low key nature of Pittsburgh and take a massive discount over what he'll get elsewhere. The latter makes no sense, especially if we're not winning games. So it comes down to Nutting and what the mafia (big market owners and MLB) wants financially.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
Uh, so you can keep him for longer than just his arbitration years? What kind of question is this?
This just sounds like your whole “if the Pirates aren’t winning, relocate the team” nonsense. Saying it’s pointless to sign him for a couple of UFA years instead of a lifetime deal and saying they should trade him if they don’t sign him to a lifetime deal is silly.
bigdaddyk88
Registered User
- Apr 21, 2019
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Empoleon8771
Registered User
Julio Rodriguez got 12x210 when he signed his deal in his rookie season in 2022. Even when account for Skenes winning ROY as well, I don’t think 7-8 years in the $150-$180 million range is all that far off.
How the Mariners set up Julio’s extension is exactly how I’d want the Pirates to set up a Skenes extension:
Year 1: $6 million plus a $15 million signing bonus
Year 2: $10 million
Year 3-12: $18 million
Julio’s deal also has some complicated options and opt-outs, but if he’s taking that I don’t see why you couldn’t get Skenes for something like that 8x160 deal.
ImporterExporter
"You're a boring old man"
Skenes is worth more than Julio. He literally pitched like a CY winner at 22. He's already a 40M per year arm. As in right now.
Yeah, we don't have to pay him that for a few years, but there is no chance he'll sell out a FA year or 2 for much below that kind of market value.
If we didn't already have 200M+ tied up into Hayes, Keller, Reynolds, it's a distant maybe.
People need to get realistic. This isn't EA sports.
Yeah, we don't have to pay him that for a few years, but there is no chance he'll sell out a FA year or 2 for much below that kind of market value.
If we didn't already have 200M+ tied up into Hayes, Keller, Reynolds, it's a distant maybe.
People need to get realistic. This isn't EA sports.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
Julio received MVP votes in both his first 2 years and his WAR was higher than Skenes in his rookie year (6.2 to 5.9 on BR, 5.8 to 4.3 on Fangraphs). Julio was already one of the best OFers in baseball in his rookie year.
Even if you want to argue a Cy Young pitcher is worth more than a Silver Slugger CF, the difference isn't going to be that significant. It doesn't matter what Skenes UFA value right now is because he's not a UFA until 2029.
I know Pirates fans are excited that Skenes is a monster already, but he's not this once in a lifetime player that is somehow going to destroy the structure of MLB contracts. Skenes' ROY is on par with both Julio's ROY and Ohtani's ROY.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
I'm not saying this to downplay Skenes because the dude is obviously a monster and an ace already, but I think some Pirates fans are acting like he's literally the second coming of Jesus because this team hasn't had a talent like him for decades. Skenes' ROY performance was very much similar to what other top prospects and elite players put up:
Skenes: 214 ERA+, finished with 5.9 bWAR
Henderson: 125 OPS+ with great defense as a SS, finished with 6.2 bWAR (8th in MVP voting)
Rodriguez: 147 OPS+ with great defense as a RF, finished with 6.2 bWAR (7th in MVP voting)
Judge: 171 OPS+ as a RF, finished with 8.0 bWAR (2nd in MVP voting)
Harris: 133 OPS+ and great defense as a CF, finished with 5.1 bWAR in only 111 games (13th in MVP voting)
Skenes is going to be the pitcher equivalent of Judge/Henderson/Julio going forward, which is obviously a monster player, but none of those players are breaking the structure of MLB contracts wit how they performed. Even with that monster rookie season from Judge, his arbitration awards were $8.5 million, $10.175 million and $19 million. And that was with him continuing to be a monster after his rookie year (every year between 143 and 150 OPS+ and full seasons with ~6 bWAR from 2018-2021).
Skenes: 214 ERA+, finished with 5.9 bWAR
Henderson: 125 OPS+ with great defense as a SS, finished with 6.2 bWAR (8th in MVP voting)
Rodriguez: 147 OPS+ with great defense as a RF, finished with 6.2 bWAR (7th in MVP voting)
Judge: 171 OPS+ as a RF, finished with 8.0 bWAR (2nd in MVP voting)
Harris: 133 OPS+ and great defense as a CF, finished with 5.1 bWAR in only 111 games (13th in MVP voting)
Skenes is going to be the pitcher equivalent of Judge/Henderson/Julio going forward, which is obviously a monster player, but none of those players are breaking the structure of MLB contracts wit how they performed. Even with that monster rookie season from Judge, his arbitration awards were $8.5 million, $10.175 million and $19 million. And that was with him continuing to be a monster after his rookie year (every year between 143 and 150 OPS+ and full seasons with ~6 bWAR from 2018-2021).
Goalie_Bob
1992 Vezina (2nd)
I think the question is, is Skenes willing to take money now in place of a few UFA years or does he want to be a FA ASAP.
I don't think anybody is disputing that the Pirates can easily afford Skenes through his arbitration years. The arbitration process is set up for teams to get value out the player and then for the player to get value when they become a UFA.
So his contract could look something like this if the Pirates played salary hardball:
2025: 800k
2026: 800k
2027: 12mil (Arb1)
2028: 17mil (Arb2)
2029: 25mil (Arb3)
Total: 55.6mil
Thus, is he willing to trade a couple years of UFA for say a guaranteed 70-80mil? So say a 7 year, 125-135mil contract?
I honestly think it is not about the money with Skenes and it will be about winning. He wants to win games and he wants to win championships. And I think he will trade money for that experience. Thus, I think he sees how it is going for the organization over the next couple years and then makes a decision. Because if he wants out, he would easily be traded prior to the 2029 season.
I feel like it is way more important for the team to spend money to put a contender on the field and Skenes will want to see drastic movement in that direction or he will not sign.
I don't think anybody is disputing that the Pirates can easily afford Skenes through his arbitration years. The arbitration process is set up for teams to get value out the player and then for the player to get value when they become a UFA.
So his contract could look something like this if the Pirates played salary hardball:
2025: 800k
2026: 800k
2027: 12mil (Arb1)
2028: 17mil (Arb2)
2029: 25mil (Arb3)
Total: 55.6mil
Thus, is he willing to trade a couple years of UFA for say a guaranteed 70-80mil? So say a 7 year, 125-135mil contract?
I honestly think it is not about the money with Skenes and it will be about winning. He wants to win games and he wants to win championships. And I think he will trade money for that experience. Thus, I think he sees how it is going for the organization over the next couple years and then makes a decision. Because if he wants out, he would easily be traded prior to the 2029 season.
I feel like it is way more important for the team to spend money to put a contender on the field and Skenes will want to see drastic movement in that direction or he will not sign.
Empoleon8771
Registered User
Oh damn I actually just realized you're correct. Skenes doesn't have 4 arbitration years, he only has 3. Skenes would have 4 arbitration years had he not accrued a year of service this year, but since he did, he only has 2 pre-arb and 3 arbitration years left. My "$80 million over his 5 controlled years" is assuredly overvaluing his years then.
Brubaker had the same service time outcome (got a full year of service in his first year), so he was pre-arb in 2020-2022, arbitration eligible from 2023-2025 and is a free agent in 2026.
BusinessGoose
Registered User
We COULD afford Skenes at any price
We COULD give him a roster that has a chance of winning
... COULD...
We COULD give him a roster that has a chance of winning
... COULD...
i dont see how its helpful to pretend like a different ownership group would also be willing let alone able to outbid everyone. if skenes wants the most money barring a plutocrat buying the team its gonna be elsewhere. if he just wants a fair amount of money and to stay in pgh then it gets interesting
Empoleon8771
Registered User
Back to some actual roster talk rather than Skenes hypotheticals, here are the Pirates guys up for arbitration and what their arbitration estimates are:
Bednar: $6 million
De La Cruz: $4 million
Joe: $3.2 million
Falter: $2.8 million
Bart: $1.8 million
Holderman: $1.4 million
Oviedo: $1.5 million
At these prices , it’s an absolute no brainer to non-tender Bednar, De La Cruz and Joe right? I could be swayed on Bednar and gambling on his potential (I kinda doubt you’d get much better in free agency for a $6 million reliever), but Joe and De La Cruz are downright inexcusable to give that kind of money to.
Bednar: $6 million
De La Cruz: $4 million
Joe: $3.2 million
Falter: $2.8 million
Bart: $1.8 million
Holderman: $1.4 million
Oviedo: $1.5 million
At these prices , it’s an absolute no brainer to non-tender Bednar, De La Cruz and Joe right? I could be swayed on Bednar and gambling on his potential (I kinda doubt you’d get much better in free agency for a $6 million reliever), but Joe and De La Cruz are downright inexcusable to give that kind of money to.
The stats you provided are showing that Skenes performed better than all of them as rookies.
BusinessGoose
Registered User
Yeah, I'm only onboard for keeping Bart 1000%, Oviedo for sure, Falter was better than okay AT TIMES, and.... with Holderman I'm iffy
Really, if they are planning up upgrade pitching I wouldn't bother with Falter or holderman but I'm pretty sure we won't, so, might as well keep our risky knowns? I think Oviedo will help a lot coming back.
Bednar and Joe played themselves off roster. BDLC was useless in one thing we needed him for.
Really, if they are planning up upgrade pitching I wouldn't bother with Falter or holderman but I'm pretty sure we won't, so, might as well keep our risky knowns? I think Oviedo will help a lot coming back.
Bednar and Joe played themselves off roster. BDLC was useless in one thing we needed him for.
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