OT: Pirates Talk: That Skenes guy is okay at teh baseball

[ChaosAgent]

I think this is fair as an optimistic take on Horowitz that's still worried about what Cleveland will do. In fairness to Horowitz, the hit tool looks very good and he ran some pretty crazy on base numbers.

I find the value harder to assess with everything because the trade that set it up was Cleveland getting out of Gimenez's contract, a guy who has displayed a very high ceiling but whose contract looked bad for a penny pinching team like them or us.

It still seems like a net negative, though, given how valuable pitching seems to be at the moment.

As a slight tangent, Gimenez's value reminds me that the Pirates could get out of Hayes' contract if he just has a normal Ke'Bryan Hayes maddening season like 2021-2022. So that gives me some optimism.

I think also the fact that we dealt from our SP depth and did not unload Hayes' contract in the process means it's not happening. Hayes is going to be our starting 3B next year and is going to have every opportunity to at least get back to his amazing glove, slappy oppo hard hit grounder self. I can't even say it's the wrong decision. I just hate it.

I can't bring myself to get worked up about them bringing in Sasaki or Santander. It won't happen.
Adolis Garcia intrigues me. Grichuk was awesome last year.
The other YOLO possibility for me would be just signing Joc Pederson for like 2/$30M, politely telling Cutch the reunion is over barring a discount, and just relegate RF to a Suwinski/Davis/Bae audition-thing. Make Gorski the designated platoon guy for 1B/DH and maybe even Cruz (though he made big time strides against LHP last year)
This is kinda immature but it would be dope to have a legitimately fearsome lineup at least against righties. Pederson/Cruz/Reynolds/Horowitz would be sick for the 60-70% of games against a righty, although I'm sure some teams would use lefty openers.

 

[Fogel]

1B shouldn't be a hard hole to fill, but trading 3 pitchers for an overaged late bloomer doesn't strike me as good value. A penny pinching move which shouldn't be surprising, but not a fan of the trade even if all we gave up are lotto tickets.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

Ben was on mlb network yesterday hayes isn’t getting traded and cutch will be back. His main goal was to supplement the bullpen at winter meetings

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm perplexed that people don't think this is a good move for the Pirates. Ortiz likely overachieved with his true ability last year, his underlying numbers were far worse than his actual numbers:

For comparison, here is what Horwitz's statcast data looks like:

Horwitz has hit at every single level he has been at, while he's also only like a year older than Ortiz. This is the exact kind of move the Pirates should be making, selling from a position of strength for a position of weakness.

 

[McGroarty2]

What would your lineup look like at the moment after this trade?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah the more I read about Horwitz, the more I'm good with this deal. I think both guys have a concern going forward, in that Horwitz struggles against lefties and Ortiz's underlying numbers were far worse than his baseline numbers. That said, they're both only a year apart and have basically the same years of service left, with both hitting arbitration in 2027 and FA in 2030. I think the Pirates probably should have gotten better value in the deal, I would argue that Ortiz for Horwitz straight up should have been pretty even, but that's just nitpicking because the other pieces weren't all that valuable.

I think Cleveland may be able to unlock more out of Ortiz and get him to be a legitimately good starter, but I think Ortiz would have faced a pretty significant regression with the Pirates next year had they kept him. They definitely bought high on Horwitz but I also feel like they sold high on Ortiz in this deal as well. Ortiz was a year removed from a 4.78 ERA/5.57 FIP season and is extremely volatile due to his lack of supporting pitches, selling high on him now was a smart move for Cherington. I just think they also bought high on Horwitz.

 

[Empoleon8771]

What would your lineup look like at the moment after this trade?

With McCutchen coming back and Hayes staying:

1. McCutchen (DH)
2. Reynolds (RF)
3. Cruz (CF)
4. Bart (C)
5. Horwitz (1B)
6. Gonzales (2B)
7. LF FA addition
8. Hayes (3B)
9. IKF (SS)

Would also depend on the caliber of LF that they're adding. I'm expecting someone like Max Kepler who will be hitting somewhere in that 5-7 range.

For pitchers, I figure that they'll likely sign someone to replace Ortiz in that long reliever/spot starter role and go with Skenes, Jones, Keller, Falter and either Oviedo or that FA signing.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

C: Bart
1B: Horwitz
2B: Yorke
3B: Hayes
SS: IKF
CF: Cruz
LF: Reynolds
RF: Cook
DH: Davis?

No doubt they need to sign a bat, in addition to Cutch. Current payroll is like 42mil. They have more than enough room to add a couple good players.

For the more knowledgeable, is there any AJ Burnett but hitters that could be available?

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I'm perplexed that people don't think this is a good move for the Pirates. Ortiz likely overachieved with his true ability last year, his underlying numbers were far worse than his actual numbers:

View attachment 943525

For comparison, here is what Horwitz's statcast data looks like:

View attachment 943526

Horwitz has hit at every single level he has been at, while he's also only like a year older than Ortiz. This is the exact kind of move the Pirates should be making, selling from a position of strength for a position of weakness.

You trade from the minors not from your major league team
Ortiz is a weapon they got back a platoon 1st baseman

 

[Empoleon8771]

You trade from the minors not from your major league team
Ortiz is a weapon they got back a platoon 1st baseman

How is Ortiz a "weapon"? He doesn't strike guys out, he gives up a lot of fly balls and his supporting pitches are extremely underwhelming at best. They sold high on Ortiz, he isn't as good of a pitcher as what his 2024 baseline numbers were.

Complaining about trading Ortiz is bizarre. Trading him now is exactly what they should have been doing, he wasn't as good as his numbers suggested and he was a massive risk of regression due to his very clear and obvious shortcomings as a pitcher. They also bought high on Horwitz who I agree is more of a platoon 1B (I think he and Cook will platoon at 1B), but selling high on Ortiz was the correct decision here.

Ortiz is closer to Bailey Falter than he is to Jared Jones.

 

[MrBrightside]

Death, taxes, and Empoleon supporting a transaction made by a Pittsburgh team.

I'm kidding. Kind of.

Spencer Horwitz in demand as he’s flipped from Cleveland to Pittsburgh in odd deal

Getting a solid swingman and two high-reward pitching prospects for Horwitz was a great deal for Cleveland.

www.nytimes.com

This is certainly one of the strangest deals I can remember, as Spencer Horwitz is suddenly a hot commodity, which is unusual for a 27-year-old first baseman with middling power and fringy bat speed.

Cleveland acquired Horwitz after lunch and flipped him to Pittsburgh for three pitchers before it even got to its fourth meal. Meanwhile, the Pirates needed a first baseman, and I think they still do.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Death, taxes, and Empoleon supporting a transaction made by a Pittsburgh team.

I'm kidding. Kind of.

Spencer Horwitz in demand as he’s flipped from Cleveland to Pittsburgh in odd deal

Getting a solid swingman and two high-reward pitching prospects for Horwitz was a great deal for Cleveland.

www.nytimes.com

This is certainly one of the strangest deals I can remember, as Spencer Horwitz is suddenly a hot commodity, which is unusual for a 27-year-old first baseman with middling power and fringy bat speed.

Cleveland acquired Horwitz after lunch and flipped him to Pittsburgh for three pitchers before it even got to its fourth meal. Meanwhile, the Pirates needed a first baseman, and I think they still do.

I don't think that Keith Law write-up is all that off, Horwitz is definitely more of a platoon bat that doesn't have ideal power for a 1B. I don't agree that they "still need a 1B" after this deal though, Horwitz just projects to be more of a doubles type of 1B than HRs type of 1B.

His expected slash line for last year was .254/.338/.419 according to Baseball Savant, that equivalent .757 OPS would have ranked him right on par with guys like Yandy Diaz and Vinnie Pasquantino. I think those two guys also fit the general style that Horwitz would be as a 1B: less HR power but a lot of doubles and a high OBP.

 

[ChaosAgent]

How is Ortiz a "weapon"? He doesn't strike guys out, he gives up a lot of fly balls and his supporting pitches are extremely underwhelming at best. They sold high on Ortiz, he isn't as good of a pitcher as what his 2024 baseline numbers were.

Complaining about trading Ortiz is bizarre. Trading him now is exactly what they should have been doing, he wasn't as good as his numbers suggested and he was a massive risk of regression due to his very clear and obvious shortcomings as a pitcher. They also bought high on Horwitz who I agree is more of a platoon 1B (I think he and Cook will platoon at 1B), but selling high on Ortiz was the correct decision here.

Ortiz is closer to Bailey Falter than he is to Jared Jones.

You may not like this, but Ortiz looked much better from the eye test than the metrics. Would rather r have him than Keller for example. And most here would agree

 

[MrBrightside]

I don't think that Keith Law write-up is all that off, Horwitz is definitely more of a platoon bat that doesn't have ideal power for a 1B. I don't agree that they "still need a 1B" after this deal though, Horwitz just projects to be more of a doubles type of 1B than HRs type of 1B.

His expected slash line for last year was .254/.338/.419 according to Baseball Savant, that equivalent .757 OPS would have ranked him right on par with guys like Yandy Diaz and Vinnie Pasquantino. I think those two guys also fit the general style that Horwitz would be as a 1B: less HR power but a lot of doubles and a high OBP.

I don't disagree with that analysis, but I don't really think getting a platoon 1B who profiles as a .750 OPS guy is moving the needle. I don't have a big issue with trading Ortiz or the others, but the issue I have is the opportunity cost - you've used trade assets and now you're not going to do anything that's an impact bat at 1B. Assuming they bring back Cutch to DH, something they seem determined to do for better or worse, they basically have RF left to add an impact bat.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You may not like this, but Ortiz looked much better from the eye test than the metrics. Would rather r have him than Keller for example. And most here would agree

I don't think the eye test in such a sabermetric sport like baseball really works here. They have data for almost everything you can track data for and his issues are pretty clear to spot the weaknesses with his game.

To me, Ortiz is a 2.5 pitch pitcher who will have major consistency problems and will regularly bounce between a starter and a reliever's role. I think he's pretty similar to Oviedo, who isn't a bad pitcher either but is likely capped out as a #4. I don't think trading a #4 starter for a 115 OPS+ platoon 1B is a problem, at least IMO.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't disagree with that analysis, but I don't really think getting a platoon 1B who profiles as a .750 OPS guy is moving the needle. I don't have a big issue with trading Ortiz or the others, but the issue I have is the opportunity cost - you've used trade assets and now you're not going to do anything that's an impact bat at 1B. Assuming they bring back Cutch to DH, something they seem determined to do for better or worse, they basically have RF left to add an impact bat.

One thing I would say here is that Horwitz's low salary and years of control does give you more money to add an impact RF bat. You are losing out on the ability to add a top bat 1B, but you're also opening up money that you would have used on a 1B to use elsewhere. They're likely adding around $20-$25 million in money this off-season, so spending only $800k on Horwitz means you can reallocate that $5+ million saved to RF.

To put it summed up briefly, trading Ortiz for Horwitz and spending $15 million on a RF is better than spending $8 million on both a RF and 1B, which was likely the alternative if they didn't trade for Horwitz. I think I would have preferred to trade Ortiz for a RF version of Horwitz and then sign a $15 million 1B, but I just don't know who would fall in that category.

 

[ImporterExporter]

They will have to add another SP, ideally 2 OF options, multiple bullpen options.

If you break 20ish million across say 4-5 players, per season, you're scraping the bottom of the barrel 100%

Outside a miracle and us getting Sasaki on the cheap, Horwitz is probably the best player we'll add this offseason.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

I don't disagree with that analysis, but I don't really think getting a platoon 1B who profiles as a .750 OPS guy is moving the needle. I don't have a big issue with trading Ortiz or the others, but the issue I have is the opportunity cost - you've used trade assets and now you're not going to do anything that's an impact bat at 1B. Assuming they bring back Cutch to DH, something they seem determined to do for better or worse, they basically have RF left to add an impact bat.

One would assume Reynolds would move from to left to right easier defensively and they would go get a LF .

 

[bigdaddyk88]

They will have to add another SP, ideally 2 OF options, multiple bullpen options.

If you break 20ish million across say 4-5 players, per season, you're scraping the bottom of the barrel 100%

Outside a miracle and us getting Sasaki on the cheap, Horwitz is probably the best player we'll add this offseason.

Oviedo takes the spot from Ortiz no SP will be added
Skenes Keller Oviedo Jones Falter Ashcraft as the next Ortiz and Bubba after a month in AAA

What do they spend the 22 million on that Perez champen and Taylor made

 

[MrBrightside]

One would assume Reynolds would move from to left to right easier defensively and they would go get a LF .

Well, while true at PNC Park that's generally not perceived to be the case in most parks, but even if they do, the point is no different - they appear to have one open spot for an impact bat and it's a corner OF spot - and I don't think the rest of the lineup is good enough that one impact bat, if it happens, is sufficient.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the plan with Reynolds is to move him to RF for now and plan on him taking over the DH spot once McCutchen retires. In the long-run, I think the plan is for Yorke to take Reynolds spot in the OF and move Reynolds to DH. That won't happen this year with McCutchen needing to first retire, but I think that's the plan for Reynolds in the long run.

He may also play some 1B because Horwitz will likely need to be subbed out against lefties some, but I also think you have Billy Cook for that role as well. Cook hits the absolute piss out of lefty pitchers in the minors last year, he had a 1.002 OPS against lefties in 2024 and similarly raked against them in an ultra small sample size with the Pirates last year. I definitely think Cook is on the team as a righty platoon for Horwitz, whether it be with Reynolds moving to 1B and Cook playing RF or just Cook playing 1B.

Right now, I think they have:

C: Bart
1B: Horwitz
2B: Gonzales
SS: IKF
3B: Hayes
LF: Open
CF: Cruz
RF: Reynolds
DH: McCutchen
Bench: Cook, Triolo, Endy and 1 open spot

I'm pretty confident that Cook will just replace Joe's old role, with the added benefit of being able to also play CF in addition to the corner OF and 1B spots. They still have a glaring opening at LF along with needing another bench bat. I could be swayed either way to say that needs to be a CF or a SS, but one more defensive oriented bench piece.

I think they add a LF, swing SP/reliever and a high leverage reliever in free agency with the $20-$25 million they have left to spend. I could see something like $10 million for the LF, $10 million for the high leverage reliever and $5 million for that swing SP/reliever as their remaining moves.

 

[MrBrightside]

They'd actually be much better off if they'd platoon Cutch and Horwitz at DH and add a real 1B and real corner OF, but we all know how realistic that is.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don't think the eye test in such a sabermetric sport like baseball really works here. They have data for almost everything you can track data for and his issues are pretty clear to spot the weaknesses with his game.

To me, Ortiz is a 2.5 pitch pitcher who will have major consistency problems and will regularly bounce between a starter and a reliever's role. I think he's pretty similar to Oviedo, who isn't a bad pitcher either but is likely capped out as a #4. I don't think trading a #4 starter for a 115 OPS+ platoon 1B is a problem, at least IMO.

I think Ortiz has well-above average FB and SL and last year - maybe with some luck - started to learn how to pitch situationally and get the big outs. But you're right that he may be a regression candidate.

I am high on Horowitz, but as @MrBrightside points out a lack of hard contact could be his undoing. I automatically want to take any player whose K/BB is around 1 in the minors like Horowitz, but after seeing how badly Endy struggled at the plate in 2023 I am now appreciating that the ability to hit the baseball hard is important. Soft contact will not cut it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think Ortiz has well-above average FB and SL and last year - maybe with some luck - started to learn how to pitch situationally and get the big outs. But you're right that he may be a regression candidate.

I am high on Horowitz, but as @MrBrightside points out a lack of hard contact could be his undoing. I automatically want to take any player whose K/BB is around 1 in the minors like Horowitz, but after seeing how badly Endy struggled at the plate in 2023 I am now appreciating that the ability to hit the baseball hard is important. Soft contact will not cut it.

I think that's valid about Horwitz, but he also makes up for that lack of bat speed with being very good at squaring balls up and hitting ideal launch angles. Endy's time in the MLB didn't have those, at least not yet. I think the two will have to have similar hitting profiles to have success in the major leagues due to their lack of bat speed. That said, Horwitz has shown that he can have success in the MLB despite that.

Horwitz's hitting profile seems to be more of a fit for a 2B than a 1B, if he was better defensively I think he'd be primarily viewed as a 2B.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Angels Reportedly Discussing Trade Of Outfielder

Yesterday, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link) reported that the Angels seemed to be close to trading an outfielder. Nothing …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

It isn't sexy at all, but Ward is about to be traded apparently. I would throw a 45FV and 40FV prospect to LAA for him. Similar to what Texas just traded for Burger.