Norris likely ends up on LTIR retirement though I don’t hate the trade. It’s too bad PLD isn’t a little meaner. If he had a nasty streak to go along with his size and skill, it would give him more room to dog it half the time.
The word is that Norris is going to attempt to come back.
Until he proves he can be an effective top 6 center post-injury, LTIRetirement would almost be preferable to him coming back and struggling as an 8M player. If he was set for LTIRetirment, I doubt the Senators make that trade.
What makes the trade doable for Ottawa is the uncertainty around the level of play they can expect from Norris. Also, the need to shake things up after another bad season.
To illustrate how risky the contract is, Dubois will have 7 years remaining with a NMC for 4 of those years. He is owed 59M in real cash. He is effectively buyout proof after the age of 26 because of his 11.5M in outstanding signing bonuses. For example, a buyout in 2025-26 only clears a few million dollars over the lifetime of the contract. He would be owed 51M, they would have to pay a replacement body 775k+ x 6 (let's just call it 6M), and a buyout would cost about 38M over 12 seasons. Along with the replacement body to cover the roster spot, you're looking at spending about 44M in cap simply to have him go away, when his outstanding cap is only 51M. So a 2025-26 buyout really only saves about 7M over the lifetime of the contract.
Compare that to Norris. He has virtually no trade protection (a paltry 10 team list starting in 2026). He has no signing bonuses. He has a lower cap hit, and he has a year less of term. He is also a possible LTIRetirement candidate if he hurts his shoulder again, or doesn't recover well from his current injury (third shoulder surgery?). There is a lot more flexibility there to get out of that contract if it doesn't work out. The Dubois contract is a marriage, not a contract. There is no out after this off season.
It's why I understand Sens fans who balk at the idea. It's also why I think Korpisalo has to be involved to even the negative value out a bit. On the plus, Korpisalo was good for LAK during the regular season last year.
If it's Norris+Korpisalo for Dubois and a good roster player, then it starts to look more like a possible solid retool move for the Senators.