Phoenix LXX: Should they stay or should they go now?

[WildGopher]

The Coyotes still have games to play and tickets to sell. Gotta keep those losses $$$ from growing.

So what are you going to hear? Nothing but, we are still working on a deal to keep the team in Glendale, from all the parties. Then after the last game is played... boom, The other shoe drops.

Someone is paying the teams expenses, and that someone is going to be very pissed if someone else comes out and says its over before the end of the season. Why is it seconds after it becomes known Jamison's deal is dead, we start hearing about other mystery buyers? To keep up the hopes and have people still buy tickets.

Same thing happened in Atlanta. There only ever was one buyer of the Thrashers... TNSE, yet there was something like 22 tire kickers looking at the team, up until the last day.

It's not to say it's impossible that some sugar daddy who doesn't care about losing money and loves hockey in Phoenix comes along in the next month, but I really doubt it.

I agree this is what's likely. But for those trying to read any clues into utterances from the NHL over the next couple months, it's time for some lessons in NHLese, a language you need to know as well as English or French if you're following this saga. First, as stated in an earlier post, Bill Daly yesterday sounded "Atlanta-esq" for the first time - in other words, he made an utterance about other "options" for the Phoenix franchise the way he started commenting about Atlanta in January 2011, months before the Thrashers moved to Winnipeg. That was a shift from the previous "we always try to keep a franchise where it is" rhetoric. The other place to watch for clues, as frustrating as it is to listen to him, is to try to discern when Bettman is just dissembling (his default mode) or when he's hinting at something bigger. Because once in a while his hints can draw a pretty big picture. For example, about a week before the big "surprise" that Glendale was going to pony up a second $25 million in the spring of 2011, Bettman hinted something that gave it away if you were listening closely. The Hulziser bid was coming apart with no other obvious suitor, so a journalist asked Bettman if there was any hope to keep the Coyotes in Phoenix for another year. Bettman gave that goofy look and softly said "if Glendale pays the $25 million again," or something to that effect. Sure enough, a week later, Glendale's council agenda comes out with the proposal to guarantee $25 million for another year. Whilee and others here have pointed out that we wouldn't have to guess at these events so much if journalists would just do their job and ask pointed questions and follow-ups, but until that starts happening, we'll keep reading tea leaves. The good thing is after almost four years of this, it's gotten a little easier to understand Bettmanese and Dalyese than back when the NHL could get away telling us straight out lies. Whether you've got a horse in this race and want a franchise in your town, or are just an observer of this sports business train wreck, it's going to be an interesting ride over the next few months.

 

[powerstuck]

I can't say I agree with that. I think the two markets are pretty much on par, in a speculative way. QC, like Winnipeg, is limited by size and, as such, no matter how well it does it will still only be able to bring in limited revenue, though obviously on the positive side. Seattle, on the other hand, actually has greater potential but the fruition of that potential is by no means a certainty. There isn't really any reason to think that Seattle won't be a success, but the extent of that success is a huge unknown.

Obviously, I believe, the League would rather relocate the Coyotes, if necessary, to Seattle rather than QC, but I think more so due to convenience and damage control to US hockey. It's more convenient alignment-wise, and having two consecutive US-based teams relocated to Canada really worsens the image of hockey in the US for the League. Nevertheless, I think there are serious logistic issues with putting a team in Seattle for next Season, and for that reason alone QC might well be the recipient of a relocated Coyotes.

But hey, we all shouldn't get too confident just yet. Two other options are still possible... One, a miracle could still be found in the desert (highly unlikely, but until the fat lady sings); or two, someone in another location may unexpectedly step forward and make an offer to take the Coyotes. If the Coyotes can be had a cheap price, and that doesn't mean keeping them in Phoenix-Glendale, there just might be buyers coming from a number of sources, who knows.

Quebec might be small but we will be filling an 18000+ arena 42 times a year from 2015. At NHL 2011-12 average prices, that's around $1.03M per game. Quebecor is investing $40M for a TV STUDIO next to the arena. I don't know of any network that's investing that kind of money next to a hockey arena to not go and sign a deal with NHL. No, Quebecor won't pay NBC money, but they will get pressure from Bell who will want to land the Nordiques on RDS2 and thus prices will get into Habs territory (around $100M).

The boards, ice area, and inside concessions will be filled with as much sponsors as there would have been anywhere.

Also to consider, NBA is not yet 100% guaranteed in Seattle, and as long as that does not happen, there is NO NEW ARENA in Seattle. I just can hope for Seattle guys that the NBA team doesn't take as long to get done as this Coyotes saga in Phoenix.

 

[Hawkscap]

This raises another point: doesn't the BoG have to approve any sale? Would they really approve a sale that would force them to massively share revenues with Seattle for the next couple of years due to a pathetic arena situation, when they could approve QC instead and replace Glendale with a market that requires either no or very little revenue sharing straight out of the gate?

Also: I saw Poison and Cinderella like 10 years ago at Verizon Wireless Arena in Manchester.

I would say it depends if relocation fees are =, >, or < expansion fees.

 

[ajmidd12]

You couldn't be any more wrong if you tried. Hansen wants dual anchor tenants, in fact there is a additional bonding bonus of 80 million if the 2nd tenant is a NHL team.

Make no mistake the arena will be a multi-purpose entertainment facility, capable of hosting numErous events

No one is disputing the venue will be capable, HOWEVER it is not ready and will not be ready as early as this summer.

Plus Hansen needs to deal with securing his NBA team first and ensuring the arena is even built.

Relax guy I'm not wrong, but you don't like the comment so to you I am.

 

[Undertakerqc]

Truth be told Pat... all 3 (myself being in Tampa) barely survived it. Again, the common denominator with these 3 markets. They all started (or in the Panthers case ended up) by being the sole tenant. It wasn't too long ago that the Lightning were the absolute red headed step child of the League, I'd even venture to speculate at some point between 96-98 Bettman second guessed himself on us. Triple digit millions in debt, shady ownership, League intervention, and the beat went on. Then some hick buys it, flips it a year later and sans the mild blemish of two incompetent clowns, have dug ourselves out. I still speculate the overall health over there in Sunrise but anywho...

They are ready now though. Ideally, compared to QC and Le Colisee? No. But... checklist. Temp arrangements... Key / Colisee - Check. Key a lesser temp home? Yes. But ready? Yes. Interested and agressive ownerships? Check. Forecasted Arena completion dates? And of equal calendar year? Check. QC ahead in the race with construction already? True...

My interpretation of Levin's comments today were not that he prefers an expansion team. He's playing nice and filtering himself. Saying the right things. Is he perhaps desperate enough to possibly buy into an expansion team, if that ends up being his only option? Sounds like it. But I wouldn't go so far as to take it as a "preference". Why would I prefer to spend more than I'd have to if I were Levin.

They're going to be overshadowed anyway right? You need your product to compete immediately to attempt to walk out of the center of that shadow, no?

You have been treated like crap. Seemingly, awarding a relo opportunity to another market does appear to further that. Would it be better then if the League just goes ahead and makes a blanket statement that a relo to Seattle and an Expansion award to QC? Would that be satisfactory then to the QC faithful? Would it ease the anxiety some? Sucks it's not immediate but you know it's coming?

Absolutely. Personnaly i would prefer an expansion team, cause i dont think the Coyotes will win the cup anytime soon, yet they arent bad enought that they can draft really low in the future drafts. So if they say we are getting an expansion team at the same time they relocate to Seattle. But highly doubful they would do that.

 

[MoreOrr]

Quebec might be small but we will be filling an 18000+ arena 42 times a year from 2015. At NHL 2011-12 average prices, that's around $1.03M per game. Quebecor is investing $40M for a TV STUDIO next to the arena. I don't know of any network that's investing that kind of money next to a hockey arena to not go and sign a deal with NHL. No, Quebecor won't pay NBC money, but they will get pressure from Bell who will want to land the Nordiques on RDS2 and thus prices will get into Habs territory (around $100M).

Well yes, that is one significant advantage over Winnipeg, arena size.

 

[MoreOrr]

Absolutely. Personnaly i would prefer an expansion team, cause i dont think the Coyotes will win the cup anytime soon, yet they arent bad enought that they can draft really low in the future draft. So if they say we are getting an expansion team at the same time they relocate to Seattle. But highly doubful they would do that.

All non-Playoff teams now participate in the Draft lottery.

 

[cheswick]

Well yes, that is one significant advantage over Winnipeg, arena size.

Only time will tell if that's true. The MTS Centre's moderate size fits for the market. Such small supply for a large demand allows them to charge some of the highest prices in the league. The extra couple of thousand seats would be the cheapest seats in the building. So bigger is not necessarilty better. Florida for example for a while curtained off hte upper deck in their building to decrease the supply of tickets available.

 

[Undertakerqc]

one word: "strategery"

Anyone remember when Anaheim came into the league? They paid the expansion fee but told the LA Kings and the League's brass to take hike when they asked for a $50 million territorial rights fee. The NHL turned around and took a bunch of money off the expansion fee and gave it to the Kings. Now I know you know why they did this, Kill. The NHL needed more western teams and they walked kinda funny when Michael Eisner was around. The NHL wanted Anaheim for logistical reasons.

The league has already hinted that some markets are worth more than others. It's not a stretch to see them keep the Coyotes in the Western conference for logistical reasons and pair Quebec and 2oronto together knowing they'll command similar expansion fees.

And you leave Winnipeg in the East? That would open a big old can of worms. Cause you would have to relocate someone in the east and move Winnipeg in the west. Then if you expans to Qc and Toronto 2, that team you move to the east, will go back to the west? The logical thing to do is move the Coyotes to Québec, then Winnipeg back in the west. After that expans to Seattle and Markham. Seattle put in the west and Markahm in the east.

The NHL would not be put in a drama having Detroit and Columbus crying to be moved to the east.

 

[GuelphStormer]

The NHL can do whatever and ask for whatever price they want... go ahead, but it doesn't mean anyone will pay it.

All Quebec has to do is do what Winnipeg did, build it then wait for another boat anchor to come along. And it will come along. TNSE did not go to the NHL and say "here's all our money, we want a team" . They built a building, they got an AHL team, they put a proper business model in place, and then they waited. They waited until the NHL had some team nobody wanted and it had to be moved. There was NO WAY TNSE was EVER going to pay an expansion fee to be an expansion team.

And this is what QC needs to do. Within the next 5 years the NHL is going to have to move another team or two ( not saying which because people get all huffy when you do that ) and once QC builds their building, they just have to wait for the NHL to come knocking. Be patient and pay what you want, not what the NHL wants.

winnipeg did not "wait" for anything. chipman aggressively courted bettman personally in 2002, a year before MTS even broke ground.

winnipeg did not sit up one day and yell, "here gary, over here man, we've got an arena. look, it's shiny and new. pick us. hey gary, look here". winnipeg jets 2.0 negotiations began 10 years before the team arrive.

 

[GuelphStormer]

can someone recall? exactly whose idea was it to put the jan31 deadline into the agreement? skeete? scruggs?

i'd like to offer up a toast to them for making these past three days very exciting.

 

[barneyg]

You're referring to the city finances? If I were an investor counting on the city to pay the AMF to keep the business afloat, I wouldn't feel too comfortable. By pillaging the city the NHL has all but ensured that no sane investor could count on any support the city might put forth.

Sheesh, are you saying that instead of quoting half of that lousy report I could have just summarized it with

That's a pretty good depiction. I know I don't stand a chance but as Neil deGrasse Tyson is my favorite astrophysicist, let me suggest

Phoenix LXXI: Death by Black Hole

(reference)

 

[Undertakerqc]

All non-Playoff teams now participate in the Draft lottery.

With absolutely minimal odds of winning... for the 14-13-12-11 last.

 

[cbcwpg]

winnipeg did not "wait" for anything. chipman aggressively courted bettman personally in 2002, a year before MTS even broke ground.

winnipeg did not sit up one day and yell, "here gary, over here man, we've got an arena. look, it's shiny and new. pick us. hey gary, look here". winnipeg jets 2.0 negotiations began 10 years before the team arrive.

Yes TNSE was actively courting the NHL to show them the NHL would work in Winnipeg, but like I said, it was for relocation, NEVER expansion. TNSE did wait. They waited until a relocation opportunity came along.

 

[MoreOrr]

With absolutely minimal odds of winning... for the 14-13-12-11 last.

Well yes, obviously. I was just pointing out that it really doesn't make much difference where the Coyotes finish in the Standings, it essentially doesn't improve or hinder their draft potential.

 

[Evil Doctor]

I'd personally prefer "Pining for the fjords"

I like this one.

We're all getting ahead of ourselves. It's possible that the NHL is already exploring the relocation options but lets not jump to the last chapter before we read the rest of the story. It's too interesting a tale to pass over...

 

[Mungman]

I'd personally prefer "Pining for the fjords"

I'd be down with that title!

(Do they have fjords in the Pacific Northwest?)

Owner : Yeah! You stunned him, just as he was wakin' up! Norwegian Blues stun easily, major.

Mr. Praline : Look my lad, I've had just about enough of this. That parrot is definitely deceased, and when I bought it not half an hour ago, you assured me that its total lack of movement was due to it being tired and shagged out after a long squawk.

Owner : Well, he's... he's, ah... probably pining for the fjords.


(Praline looks angrily back and forth, stuttering.)


Mr. Praline : PININ' for the FJORDS? What kind of talk is that? Look, why did he fall flat on his back the moment I got 'im home?

Owner : The Norwegian Blue prefers kippin' on its back! Remarkable bird, isn't it, guv, eh? Lovely plumage!

 

[MoreOrr]

I like this one.

We're all getting ahead of ourselves. It's possible that the NHL is already exploring the relocation options but lets not jump to the last chapter before we read the rest of the story. It's too interesting a tale to pass over...

True, but I have a feeling that we won't need to wait much longer, that this could finally be wrapped up within the next two weeks or by the end of February at the latest. Another legitimate possible buyer for the Coyotes is the only hold up.

 

[Faltorvo]

Seattle has first right of refusal. The optics of relocating yet another team to Canada isn't great for TV purposes. There's also a great deal more money to be made by issuing expansion teams to Markham and QC vs relocating the Coyotes to one of those markets. The question likely comes down to whether or not the NHL and Seattle ownership group can tolerate a few years of god awful Key Arena. Regardless of whether or not you think it's right, Seattle does need a team that is competitive out of the box. As much as I want them to go to QC, Seattle looks more likely.

"isn't great for TV purposes" why?

Does the American NHL fan base suffer from xeonophobia?

"Seattle has first right of refusal"?

What a made up pile of tripe.

 

[ClassLessCoyote]

This experence has reminded me of the fact that Abe Lincoin is a man who knew what he was talking about and it shows in the whole mess.

You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.

Anyways I only see 2 things that could happen before relocation but by a very long shot in this mess. Either a deal can be worked out to have the Coyotes play in downtown Phoenix or a multi-billionare comes in to buy the whole package in the Glendale Entertainment sports district including the AZ Cardinals with an offer the Bidwell's can't refuse for the team. Once again a long shot though.

 

[powerstuck]

can someone recall? exactly whose idea was it to put the jan31 deadline into the agreement? skeete? scruggs?

i'd like to offer up a toast to them for making these past three days very exciting.

Believe it was Shruggs last decision. Gotta love that lady.

 

[rj]

Well, if i were Bettman, I'd try and get both Seattle and QC in the running, otherwise it's a buyers market.

it's a buyer's market now when you only have one bidder up and running, there's never been any sign of interest from the group owning the Kings they want to buy the Coyotes, that's why I've always felt the Jamison bid was a charade, to allow time for more buyers to appear (e.g. Markham) to raise the asking price

 

[Phil Parent]

The way I see it, Quebec wants to get married. Seattle will only be the NHL's friend if they can first marry their rival.

 

[Whileee]

can someone recall? exactly whose idea was it to put the jan31 deadline into the agreement? skeete? scruggs?

i'd like to offer up a toast to them for making these past three days very exciting.

They pretty much had to put some sort of deadline on this. The city is facing a huge deficit, which is much larger if they have to pay Jamison his AMF. They need to decide how many city employees need to be cut, and which services, and couldn't really do that without knowing whether they needed to pay Jamison.

 

[Shawa666]

I can't say I agree with that. I think the two markets are pretty much on par, in a speculative way. QC, like Winnipeg, is limited by size and, as such, no matter how well it does it will still only be able to bring in limited revenue, though obviously on the positive side. Seattle, on the other hand, actually has greater potential but the fruition of that potential is by no means a certainty. There isn't really any reason to think that Seattle won't be a success, but the extent of that success is a huge unknown.

Obviously, I believe, the League would rather relocate the Coyotes, if necessary, to Seattle rather than QC, but I think more so due to convenience and damage control to US hockey. It's more convenient alignment-wise, and having two consecutive US-based teams relocated to Canada really worsens the image of hockey in the US for the League. Nevertheless, I think there are serious logistic issues with putting a team in Seattle for next Season, and for that reason alone QC might well be the recipient of a relocated Coyotes.

But hey, we all shouldn't get too confident just yet. Two other options are still possible... One, a miracle could still be found in the desert (highly unlikely, but until the fat lady sings); or two, someone in another location may unexpectedly step forward and make an offer to take the Coyotes. If the Coyotes can be had a cheap price, and that doesn't mean keeping them in Phoenix-Glendale, there just might be buyers coming from a number of sources, who knows.

In fact there is reason to think that a team in Seattle might not be that well off financially speaking. It's pretty clear that a team in Seattle will be the second fiddle in the new arena. That means they won't have access to all the revenue streams that would be available if the team also owned the place.