Other Sports: Philadelphia Phillies: The Road To .500 Continues Into Red October (2024 Edition)

Gregor Samsa

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Sep 5, 2020
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I will say that Castellanos was either the best or second best Phillies hitter in the series but he’s the most emblematic of the Phillies’ hitting the past few postseasons. If he’s hitting, great, and he’s had some big hits for the team. But when he isn’t hitting it’s ugly. And it’s not just the results that are ugly. It’s quick outs or chasing junk out of the zone. The team needs a better approach at the plate, especially in the bottom of the order. It doesn’t need to be sexy to be effective. I think the core is fine. Most series come down to a few PA’s. The Phillies hitters weren’t able to get it done in key spots for the most part. The Mets basically came through every time in the late innings. A couple of our relievers get the job done, and a few of our batters come through it’s probably a different series. I find it hard to believe the bullpen will be that ineffective again. It a high stress position in the playoffs and they weren’t put in good positions because of Thompson. The bats weren’t doing anything so I’m sure the bullpen felt there was no room for error and were pitching extra tight. This off-season I’d mostly focus on the margins in the bottom of the lineup and come back with a different manager
 

Rebels57

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Castellanos had a 34 wRC+ in the 2022 WS run, and his 1/24 performance against Arizona likely cost them another appearance. Falling in love with game 2 of the NLDS is Flyers-type shit.

While I do agree, I just want to give Nick a little bit of credit. After May 1st he was their most consistent hitter, batting between .270-280 every month the rest of the season. He stopped chasing as much. That continued in the NLDS.

That said, he's 32 years old, he's still poor defensively due his lack of range, a slow baserunner, etc...so even if his consistency were to continue, he's still not worth $20 million and they should look to upgrade.
 
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Magua

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I just want to give Nick a little bit of credit. After May 1st he was their most consistent hitter, batting between .270-280 every month the rest of the season. He stopped chasing as much.

He went from a 2nd percentile chase rate last year to 5th percentile this year. His barrel rates went slightly down. His 2022 season still happened, and it’s funny that 2024 perfectly split the difference between 22-23. You’re saying consistency; I’m saying normal regression.

He’s not a sulker to his credit, and he’s not the worst hitter in baseball, and he had some solid rebound months. But he’s also pathologically confident, hence his never changing approach. He held up his end in the NLDS, but it’s not like he drew walks or did much different. He hit some mistakes, which is what he can do. It was a tiny sample. He was even better last NLDS. His approach remained horrific.
 

FLYguy3911

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Oct 19, 2006
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Does that run out for the smaller guys sooner or is it all in the ass.
Never know with pitchers, some guys are just freaks but I think it depends whether it’s max effort or not so I guess to some degree they do. Yamamoto throws with a bit of effort. Already had a shoulder injury this year. Lincecum was similar. Had a great peak but not much longevity.
 
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Rebels57

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He went from a 2nd percentile chase rate last year to 5th percentile this year. His barrel rates went slightly down. His 2022 season still happened, and it’s funny that 2024 perfectly split the difference between 22-23. You’re saying consistency; I’m saying normal regression.

He’s not a sulker to his credit, and he’s not the worst hitter in baseball, and he had some solid rebound months. But he’s also pathologically confident, hence his never changing approach. He held up his end in the NLDS, but it’s not like he drew walks or did much different. He hit some mistakes, which is what he can do. It was a tiny sample. He was even better last NLDS. His approach remained horrific.

Is there anywhere that breaks down chase % month to month? How much is that 5% chase due to his April, which was the worst month of his career.
 

DancingPanther

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Jun 19, 2018
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He went from a 2nd percentile chase rate last year to 5th percentile this year. His barrel rates went slightly down. His 2022 season still happened, and it’s funny that 2024 perfectly split the difference between 22-23. You’re saying consistency; I’m saying normal regression.

He’s not a sulker to his credit, and he’s not the worst hitter in baseball, and he had some solid rebound months. But he’s also pathologically confident, hence his never changing approach. He held up his end in the NLDS, but it’s not like he drew walks or did much different. He hit some mistakes, which is what he can do. It was a tiny sample. He was even better last NLDS. His approach remained horrific.
All for a cool 25mm if I remember correctly. I'm not looking it up
 
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Magua

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Is there anywhere that breaks down chase % month to month? How much is that 5% chase due to his April, which was the worst month of his career.

It definitely improved, but for a player with a traditionally wild approach, I don't see the point in throwing out April-May. You could just as easily argue the other months (July specifically) were unsustainably good, and it balanced to his norms. He's 33 next season -- he's a known commodity. His trouble hitting the ball hard in spite of this makes me ask, "Should we even care?" I'm wary to say his approach really changed, especially situationally.
 
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Rebels57

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Padres shut out in their final 2 games. Yikes. They were red hot for months and then collapsed.

Dodgers are winning it all.
 

ponder719

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Well, MLB might well get what they most want, from a ratings perspective: LA vs. NY two rounds in a row, culminating with Ohtani vs. Judge.

I'll be over here in the corner vomiting, brb.
 

DancingPanther

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Teoscar just perpetuates the issue. Would be a horrible move

1000005097.jpg
 

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