Toggle sidebar

Value of: Philadelphia moving up in the draft

Captain Mountain said:
I'm not skeptical that they would be interested, but a team like Montreal may be looking at maneuvering at the draft. They are probably looking to both make trades for (ideally young) NHL caliber talent and add prospects through the draft. They currently have picks 16, 17, 41, 49, 79, 81, 82 in the first 3 rounds. If they need more draft capital for a trade or two, they may try to move down to add a pick or two. Something like 17 + 41 for 24 + 25 generally matches pick values, gives Philly a higher 1st and gives Montreal and extra first to use or include in a trade. They just wouldn't be looking to make that trade.
Click to expand...

Definitely would wonder if there were certain teams that might look to do what Buffalo did at last year's draft. Buffalo wasn't in the market for a D so they gambled that they could trade down. If they had stayed put and taken Konsta Helenius at #11 nobody would have batted an eye. But they were able to move the pick for #14 and #42 from San Jose. They still got Helenius at #14 and then they were able to trade #43 (their own 2nd) in a separate deal for Beck Malenstyn.

Vancouver at #15 seems like a wild card. Sounded like they were open to moving the pick for immediate help. Dunno if they could do a two step trade like they did with turning part of the J.T. Miller return into Marcus Pettersson.
Hypothetically:

Philly: 15th overall
Vancouver: 24th overall, 40th overall, two cheesesteaks

Vancouver: Timmy Secondlinecenter
TBD: 24th overall

Although it might be easier without Philadelphia as the middle man.
 
  • Like
Reactions: captainpaxil
An entire draft class sounds more valuable than it is. I plugged in the Islanders' draft slots that year into the PuckPedia calculator and the 2OA is still has a higher value.
 
Looking at teams in the top 10, who would be the target?

Sharks - they need a stud D to round out their prospect and young player build, if they stay put and win the lottery, Schaefer is right there. And if they don't, Misa already has incredible chemistry with another Shark pick in Chernyshov. I don't see them moving for volume.
Blackhawks - Still need a top-end offensive 1C type to allow them to shift Bedard off to wing IMO. Nazar is a nice player, Moore will be a good checker... they can stay put and do well. I don't see them moving for volume.
Predators - Seems like their prospect pool could use another dynamic scorer even with Kemell and Wood in the pipeline. Maybe they would be interested in a volume deal?
Flyers - Well, they aren't trading with themselves.
Bruins - Another maybe here? Their prospect pool looks like it is a bit stagnant but why move out of 5OA when they could inject a potential quality center into their mix. I don't see it.
Kraken - Botterill is the new GM, perhaps bundle Ristolainen up in a basket and leave him at his door since he had such a RD fetish while in Buffalo.
Sabres - Need players, have too many prospects already.
Ducks - Maybe? They have the ingredients there - love their prospect depth on defense, they've got some very good forwards and an excellent young tender in Dostal.
Penguins - They seem like they need to start the early parts of post-Sid building. I don't think they move this pick for other picks but sit tight. Granted, I also expect them or Boston to win the lottery just because.
NY Islanders - This is a team I could see trying to acquire more picks to bulk out Eiserman, Finley, Ritchie with more bodies as they start the process of turning over some of their roster. Maybe? But at this point, who is available at 10 that would make it worthwhile?
 
Brodeur said:
Trading into the 17-20 range from ~25 might be possible, but I'm not sure I can remember a draft where so many 1sts have changed hands already.

The order might change, but as it stands right now:

17. Montreal
18. Calgary (via NJD)
19. St. Louis
20. Columbus (via MIN)
21. Ottawa
22. Calgary (via FLO)
23. Carolina
24. Philadelphia (via EDM)
25. Philadelphia (via COL)

St. Louis dealt its 2nd-4th rounders already, so maybe they could move down and recoup a pick or two. Probably depends on who's there.

For now Ottawa is supposed to forfeit a 1st round pick either this year or next year. We'll see if they end up choosing this year.

Carolina is a team that likes to move down and pick up an extra pick, but moving up a spot or two didn't sound like your plan.

But it's tough to say since the team trading down will probably have a target or two in mind. Some years teams can jump a few spots for just a 2nd rounder, but other years the fish refuses the bait. In 2013, Columbus had picks #14, #19, #27, and #44. I think they were trying to trade up but nobody wanted to move down. Similarly Buffalo had #8, #16, #35, and #38 and they were trying to move up from #16 to get Max Domi but couldn't find a dance partner.
Click to expand...
Didn’t SJ trade 11 for a late 1st and two early seconds recently?
 
  • Like
Reactions: captainpaxil
Chicago might be looking at Frondell…so maybe if they luck out and remain in top two a deal could be made…

How about Chicago’s 1st(top 4), Toronto’s 1st(25-32) and Philip Kurashev for Phillys’ 1st(4-6) and Tyson Forester
 
Gregor Samsa said:
Didn’t SJ trade 11 for a late 1st and two early seconds recently?
Click to expand...

They did, Mike Grier inherited a barren farm team (his predecessors had already traded that year's 2nd) so they decided to go with quantity. It ended up being #11 for #27, #34, and #45.

For this draft, you'd probably have to find a team in a similar situation (NYI?). No guarantees they'd be interested as they picked up Cal Ritchie and a 2026 1st at the deadline. But I suppose we'll see who they hire as GM and what direction they choose to go.

Of the teams picking in the top half of the draft, Vancouver seems like the team that wouldn't shock me if they moved their pick.
 
Last edited:
Brodeur said:
Definitely would wonder if there were certain teams that might look to do what Buffalo did at last year's draft. Buffalo wasn't in the market for a D so they gambled that they could trade down. If they had stayed put and taken Konsta Helenius at #11 nobody would have batted an eye. But they were able to move the pick for #14 and #42 from San Jose. They still got Helenius at #14 and then they were able to trade #43 (their own 2nd) in a separate deal for Beck Malenstyn.

Vancouver at #15 seems like a wild card. Sounded like they were open to moving the pick for immediate help. Dunno if they could do a two step trade like they did with turning part of the J.T. Miller return into Marcus Pettersson.
Hypothetically:

Philly: 15th overall
Vancouver: 24th overall, 40th overall, two cheesesteaks

Vancouver: Timmy Secondlinecenter
TBD: 24th overall

Although it might be easier without Philadelphia as the middle man.
Click to expand...

Even if teams would be willing to shuffle around (and they would as LA, Philly, NYI and Carolina all moved down with Minnesota, Chicago, Montreal moving up last year), I think an issue there would be that 24th and 40th/41st probably isn't enough to move into the mid-teens.
 
Last edited:
Northernhawk said:
Chicago might be looking at Frondell…so maybe if they luck out and remain in top two a deal could be made…

How about Chicago’s 1st(top 4), Toronto’s 1st(25-32) and Philip Kurashev for Phillys’ 1st(4-6) and Tyson Forester
Click to expand...
Philly already has 2 extra 24ish picks. No interest in a 3rd one. And not trading Foerster.
 
  • Like
Reactions: captainpaxil
JRichard said:
Philly already has 2 extra 24ish picks. No interest in a 3rd one. And not trading Foerster.
Click to expand...
The only way I’d trade Foerster is as part of a package for a similarly aged and skilled Dman or C. I have to think he’s untouchable otherwise
 
Gregor Samsa said:
According to Tankathon the Flyers have 7 picks in the top 50 of the draft: 4 (lottery pending), Colorado 1st (playoffs pending), Edmonton 1st (playoffs pending), 36, 40, 45, and 48

Obviously hard to do without knowing who’s available until on the clock but any teams looking for do a quality for quantity trade?
Click to expand...
The a quired picjs are 24 abd 25
If either advances to conf finals they shif to 29-32. If someone below naked conf finals push them down.

The only scenario I can see from Philly pick us move up 2 spot for the better of those 2 1sts.

Using both COL and EDM 1sts you can move up-'but you won't br able to climb the cliff.if many feel there us a clear top 20 with 1st round grades then drops to mid 2nd at 21-33 you will nothave people trade down

In 2014 the Sabres has 31 (late 1st today) and 3 2nds (based on today) and tried to trade up to 16-20 offering all picks with no takers
 
I'd think Pitt at 9 could be persuaded to accumulate more picks, especially with Dubas being an analytics guy.

My personal pick value tool says picks 24 and 25 combined outweigh the value of pick 9. Dubas could maybe go for that with a little sweetener for optics sake.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Grinner
FlyguyOX said:
I'd think Pitt at 9 could be persuaded to accumulate more picks, especially with Dubas being an analytics guy.

My personal pick value tool says picks 24 and 25 combined outweigh the value of pick 9. Dubas could maybe go for that with a little sweetener for optics sake.
Click to expand...

Most models say pick 9 is more valuable than 24 and 25, and hard to imagine Dubas makes a trade like that since he has extra picks in this draft (plus future drafts) AND it would be a trade with the Philadelphia. There are easier ways for him to add picks in this year's draft.
 
Captain Mountain said:
Most models say pick 9 is more valuable than 24 and 25, and hard to imagine Dubas makes a trade like that since he has extra picks in this draft (plus future drafts) AND it would be a trade with the Philadelphia. There are easier ways for him to add picks in this year's draft.
Click to expand...
I think Philly would need to add pick 36 as well to make it more appealing for teams in that ~8-12 range. If teams think the talent falls off at a certain point they may value quantity in 3 picks in the ~24-36 range.

Islanders seem like another potential team that may value more bodies in the system. But it all depends on how GM’s view the tiers of players
 
Gregor Samsa said:
I think Philly would need to add pick 36 as well to make it more appealing for teams in that ~8-12 range. If teams think the talent falls off at a certain point they may value quantity in 3 picks in the ~24-36 range.

Islanders seem like another potential team that may value more bodies in the system. But it all depends on how GM’s view the tiers of players
Click to expand...
24 25 and 36 is WAY too much to get into 8-12, IMO. That closer to 5-7 range for me. There's hardly much difference in player outcome probability between picks 24 and 36.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Grinner
FlyguyOX said:
24 25 and 36 is WAY too much to get into 8-12, IMO. That closer to 5-7 range for me. There's hardly much difference in player outcome probability between picks 24 and 36.
Click to expand...
I doubt a team moves back that far. As far as the ~10-12 range I think it would all depend on who’s there. Either way, I wouldn’t mind if they don’t trade up at all as I think 6 late 1sts/early 2nds has a good chance of at least one prospect becoming a homerun
 
I can see gambling away the last of this year’s 3 firsts for a top 10 protected 1st in 2026.
I can see 24th and 36th for a rfa center who wont sign with team. Decent compensation.
I can see a 2nd traded away for a vet goalie.

6 picks between 24 and 48 is too many. Must not have happened often in last few drafts… on top of 5th oa.
 
JRichard said:
I can see gambling away the last of this year’s 3 firsts for a top 10 protected 1st in 2026.
I can see 24th and 36th for a rfa center who wont sign with team. Decent compensation.
I can see a 2nd traded away for a vet goalie.

6 picks between 24 and 48 is too many. Must not have happened often in last few drafts… on top of 5th oa.
Click to expand...
Doesn’t RFA have to be your own picks? And they would be next year’s picks anyway
 
FlyguyOX said:
I'd think Pitt at 9 could be persuaded to accumulate more picks, especially with Dubas being an analytics guy.

My personal pick value tool says picks 24 and 25 combined outweigh the value of pick 9. Dubas could maybe go for that with a little sweetener for optics sake.
Click to expand...

I suppose it wouldn't be shocking if the Penguins down. Probably would depend on the Penguins having a few guys in mind that they'd safely expect to be in that range.

My lazy thought is whether they'd have interest in Brady Martin due to Dubas' connection with Sault Ste. Marie. #24 would probably be too far down to trade, but maybe could see them dropping a handful of spots and picking up a 2nd if Detroit/Columbus/Utah wanted to move up.
 
Gregor Samsa said:
I doubt a team moves back that far. As far as the ~10-12 range I think it would all depend on who’s there. Either way, I wouldn’t mind if they don’t trade up at all as I think 6 late 1sts/early 2nds has a good chance of at least one prospect becoming a homerun
Click to expand...
Agree. I think there's a discrepancy with perception value of picks and actual value of the players drafted in those draft slots and their development outcome probabilities.
 
Brodeur said:
I suppose it wouldn't be shocking if the Penguins down. Probably would depend on the Penguins having a few guys in mind that they'd safely expect to be in that range.

My lazy thought is whether they'd have interest in Brady Martin due to Dubas' connection with Sault Ste. Marie. #24 would probably be too far down to trade, but maybe could see them dropping a handful of spots and picking up a 2nd if Detroit/Columbus/Utah wanted to move up.
Click to expand...
What if pens immediately flipped the picks for players to play with Crosby?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users who are viewing this thread

  • ... and 1 more.
    • Total: 7 (members: 4, guests: 3)

    Latest posts

    Ad

    Ad

    Top Bottom