Value of: Philadelphia moving up in the draft

[Gregor Samsa]

Agree. I think there's a discrepancy with perception value of picks and actual value of the players drafted in those draft slots and their development outcome probabilities.

Yeah, there are definitely 18-21 year olds picked in the 2nd round that have 1st round value now. Also prospects become more valuable the closer they are to the NHL so the Flyers could have some trade capital 2-4 years from now

 

[Captain Mountain]

I think Philly would need to add pick 36 as well to make it more appealing for teams in that ~8-12 range. If teams think the talent falls off at a certain point they may value quantity in 3 picks in the ~24-36 range.

Islanders seem like another potential team that may value more bodies in the system. But it all depends on how GM’s view the tiers of players

I doubt it matters that much. The only times in the last 15 years that a top-12 pick was traded:

1. when we knew where the pick would be;
2. for other picks;
3. it wasn't a team moving one or three spots down; and
4. didn't involve expansion draft shenanigans.

was when San Jose traded down from 11th in 2022. And that required a unique draft year with high uncertainty, and a team deciding to transition to a rebuild and lacking current a recent pick capital. The Islanders may fit that description, but if they decide to rebuild then they have veterans they can move and if they decide not to then its unlikely they trade down that much.

 

[Captain Mountain]

24 25 and 36 is WAY too much to get into 8-12, IMO. That closer to 5-7 range for me. There's hardly much difference in player outcome probability between picks 24 and 36.

If a team at 5 to 7 is offering to trade down, then Columbus, Calgary and Montreal could (and likely would) make a better offer depending on who is there.

Trading picks to move into 5-7 is pretty unprecedented from the cap era, and I'm not sure if trading no lottery picks (i.e. 16 and up) to do so feels like something that would have only happened in early in the entry draft era.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

I doubt it matters that much. The only times in the last 15 years that a top-12 pick was traded:

1. when we knew where the pick would be;
2. for other picks;
3. it wasn't a team moving one or three spots down; and
4. didn't involve expansion draft shenanigans.

was when San Jose traded down from 11th in 2022. And that required a unique draft year with high uncertainty, and a team deciding to transition to a rebuild and lacking current a recent pick capital. The Islanders may fit that description, but if they decide to rebuild then they have veterans they can move and if they decide not to then its unlikely they trade down that much.

Yeah, I’m not saying that it will happen but that there’s a potential chance it could happen. Fair value means nothing if you can’t find a dance partner, which is true of all trades. The Flyers could also dangle a young NHLer with some potential and pedigree as well if needed

 

[ponder719]

Flyers - Well, they aren't trading with themselves.

I wouldn't put it past this braintrust to try.

Somehow, they'd lose both sides of the trade.

 

[Brodeur]

What if pens immediately flipped the picks for players to play with Crosby?

It's a fun thought. I had outlined a similar idea with Vancouver on a previous post.

I suppose it comes down to their ownership and whether they want to use the picks to trade for guys to play with Crosby/Malkin or just keep the pick and get a guy who'll be filling their shoes down the road. If it were me, I'd just take somebody from that O'Brien/McQueen/Eklund/Smith tier rather than trade down. Maybe an argument to be had that the Pens should be looking to trade up a couple spots (if one of Hagens/Frondell/Desnoyers/Martone drops) instead of trading down?

But for fun, hypothetically they trade #9 for something centered around COL1+EDM1, then deal one of those picks for immediate help? Not sure who the Kirby Dach / Alex Newhook / David Jiricek change of scenery guy would be though.

 

[Djp]

24 25 and 36 is WAY too much to get into 8-12, IMO. That closer to 5-7 range for me. There's hardly much difference in player outcome probability between picks 24 and 36.

Based on what?

Nobody would give up 5-12 pick for 3 picks 24-36. There is a huge value difference. 8-12 are usually 10 yr carer top 4/top 6. While 24-40 are 50/50 not making to 100 games in the nhl.

The only scenario I can see is special circumstance of a deep draft where teams need more depth players if they are going to start a rebuild.

 

[Patty Ice]

Predators - Seems like their prospect pool could use another dynamic scorer even with Kemell and Wood in the pipeline. Maybe they would be interested in a volume deal?

Nashville wouldn't. They already have a butt load of picks and a strong pool. They need top talent.

 

[Brodeur]

Nashville wouldn't. They already have a butt load of picks and a strong pool. They need top talent.

That just jogged my memory that Nashville tried to do the OP's plan at the 2023 Draft. Nashville was offering some combination of Askarov, #15, and #24 to move up into the Carlsson/Fantilli/Smith range but were rebuffed. Even if the lottery balls go against them, Nashville would still get a decent center prospect at #4 or #5.

Also just had a flashback to the 2002 Draft when Tampa (Jay Feaster) traded #4 for Ruslan Fedotenko, #34, and #52. Tampa then parlayed #34 for Brad Lukowich. That would have been the sort of trade I'd veto in my fantasy league but Tampa got the short term boost and Feaster got his name on the Cup. Not sure how many GMs would even consider that sort of trade nowadays though.