Value of: Philadelphia moving up in the draft

[Gregor Samsa]

According to Tankathon the Flyers have 7 picks in the top 50 of the draft: 4 (lottery pending), Colorado 1st (playoffs pending), Edmonton 1st (playoffs pending), 36, 40, 45, and 48

Obviously hard to do without knowing who’s available until on the clock but any teams looking for do a quality for quantity trade?

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

I would assume the Flyers stay put unless one of the centers is someone they covet extremely high over the others

 

[Gregor Samsa]

I would assume the Flyers stay put unless one of the centers is someone they covet extremely high over the others

I wouldn’t be opposed to keeping all just to have that many lottery tickets; not all will make it, but I think if Edmonton or Colorado go deep there is a greater chance of 2 or 3 picks being bundled to move up. Philadelphia scouts have to be working overtime with 6 picks from 20-50. Like you said though, it all depends on the board. Puckpedia has it as a fair trade to move up to the 10-12 range with the Edm 1st, Col 1st, and 36. Apparently there was a trade back in the 2022 draft: 11 for 27, 34, and 45 so there is some precedent if a team is willing

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

I wouldn’t be opposed to keeping all just to have that many lottery tickets; not all will make it, but I think if Edmonton or Colorado go deep there is a greater chance of 2 or 3 picks being bundled to move up. Philadelphia scouts have to be working overtime with 6 picks from 20-50. Like you said though, it all depends on the board. Puckpedia has it as a fair trade to move up to the 10-12 range with the Edm 1st, Col 1st, and 36. Apparently there was a trade back in the 2022 draft: 11 for 27, 34, and 45 so there is some precedent if a team is willing

Yeah there will definitely be movement, think we need to wait for the lottery balls to drop first haha then go from there

 

[Brodeur]

Sometimes it's tough since trades within the top 5 typically are predicated on the team trading down still landing the guy they were planning on taking.

With the NFL Draft just happening, I think there can be a misconception that if you offer enough draft capital that the other team would eventually say yes. 2nd/3rd rounders are worth more in football since those guys will play immediately. As much as I like the NHL Draft, things tend to get sketchy by the back half of the first round and reputedly this year's class isn't deep.

Couple examples:

1993 - For better or worse, San Jose wanted Viktor Kozlov. So that was why they traded down with Hartford. Quebec/NYR also wanted Chris Pronger but they couldn't deliver Kozlov.

1998 - San Jose wanted a defenseman and Nashville wanted a forward as its first pick in franchise history. So they two teams worked out a swap between #2 and #3.

1999 - Tampa decided they were either taking Pavel Brendl or trading the pick. Brian Burke was rather public in his pursuit but was only offering a pair of 3rds to swap #1 for #4. Tampa decided to make Burke sweat to see if he'd increase his offer. Simultaneously they were also shopping the pick for multiple assets. Eventually they'd trade the pick to the Rangers who were also targeting Brendl. Since they were the middle man to deliver Brendl, Tampa ended up accepting Burke's offer.

2003 - Florida traded down from #1 to #3 not because they were floored by Pittsburgh's offer. Florida had Nathan Horton on top of their list, so Rick Dudley got a little extra value while still getting Horton at #3.

2006 - Boston offered #5 and #37 to Washington for #4. Washington asked who they were targeting and once Boston indicated they wanted Nicklas Backstrom, Washington quickly declined.

2012 - Garth Snow infamously offered his entire draft (#4, #34, #65, etc) to Columbus for #2 but they were turned down.

2013 - Calgary was rumored to have offered #6, #22, and #28 to Colorado for #1.

2015 - Toronto approached Columbus about swapping #4 for #8+ if their guy (Marner) was off the board. Columbus had a slight preference of Noah Hanifin to Zach Werenski, but they thought Toronto's ask (three 2nds) was too much. The two teams would link up later in the first round for a pick swap.

2017 - Vegas wanted to make a splash in its first draft and trade up to #1 for Nolan Patrick. New Jersey was amenable to trading down to #3 since they'd still be guaranteed at least one of Hischier/Makar would be available. But Vegas was unable to convince Dallas to trade down from #3 to #6.

-------------------

The other issue is that a lot of the teams in the lottery also have a lot of picks, so many probably aren't looking for quantity.

San Jose - SJS1, DAL1, SJS2, OTT2
Chicago - CHI1, TOR1, CHI2, DAL2
Nashville - NSH1, TBL1, VGK1, NSH2, TBL2
Boston - BOS1, STL2, CAR2
Seattle - SEA1, SEA2, TOR2
Buffalo - BUF1, BUF2
Anaheim - ANA1, EDM2 or WPG2
Pittsburgh - PIT1, NYR1*, WSH2
NY Islanders - NYI1, NYI2
NY Rangers - NYR1, NYR2
Detroit - DET1, DET2
Columbus - CLB1, MIN1

As things stand, I think most teams would just take Schaefer/Misa and call it a day.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

Sometimes it's tough since trades within the top 5 typically are predicated on the team trading down still landing the guy they were planning on taking.

With the NFL Draft just happening, I think there can be a misconception that if you offer enough draft capital that the other team would eventually say yes. 2nd/3rd rounders are worth more in football since those guys will play immediately. As much as I like the NHL Draft, things tend to get sketchy by the back half of the first round and reputedly this year's class isn't deep.

Couple examples:

1993 - For better or worse, San Jose wanted Viktor Kozlov. So that was why they traded down with Hartford. Quebec/NYR also wanted Chris Pronger but they couldn't deliver Kozlov.

1998 - San Jose wanted a defenseman and Nashville wanted a forward as its first pick in franchise history. So they two teams worked out a swap between #2 and #3.

1999 - Tampa decided they were either taking Pavel Brendl or trading the pick. Brian Burke was rather public in his pursuit but was only offering a pair of 3rds to swap #1 for #4. Tampa decided to make Burke sweat to see if he'd increase his offer. Simultaneously they were also shopping the pick for multiple assets. Eventually they'd trade the pick to the Rangers who were also targeting Brendl. Since they were the middle man to deliver Brendl, Tampa ended up accepting Burke's offer.

2003 - Florida traded down from #1 to #3 not because they were floored by Pittsburgh's offer. Florida had Nathan Horton on top of their list, so Rick Dudley got a little extra value while still getting Horton at #3.

2006 - Boston offered #5 and #37 to Washington for #4. Washington asked who they were targeting and once Boston indicated they wanted Nicklas Backstrom, Washington quickly declined.

2012 - Garth Snow infamously offered his entire draft (#4, #34, #65, etc) to Columbus for #2 but they were turned down.

2013 - Calgary was rumored to have offered #6, #22, and #28 to Colorado for #1.

2015 - Toronto approached Columbus about swapping #4 for #8+ if their guy (Marner) was off the board. Columbus had a slight preference of Noah Hanifin to Zach Werenski, but they thought Toronto's ask (three 2nds) was too much. The two teams would link up later in the first round for a pick swap.

2017 - Vegas wanted to make a splash in its first draft and trade up to #1 for Nolan Patrick. New Jersey was amenable to trading down to #3 since they'd still be guaranteed at least one of Hischier/Makar would be available. But Vegas was unable to convince Dallas to trade down from #3 to #6.

-------------------

The other issue is that a lot of the teams in the lottery also have a lot of picks, so many probably aren't looking for quantity.

San Jose - SJS1, DAL1, SJS2, OTT2
Chicago - CHI1, TOR1, CHI2, DAL2
Nashville - NSH1, TBL1, VGK1, NSH2, TBL2
Boston - BOS1, STL2, CAR2
Seattle - SEA1, SEA2, TOR2
Buffalo - BUF1, BUF2
Anaheim - ANA1, EDM2 or WPG2
Pittsburgh - PIT1, NYR1*, WSH2
NY Islanders - NYI1, NYI2
NY Rangers - NYR1, NYR2
Detroit - DET1, DET2
Columbus - CLB1, MIN1

As things stand, I think most teams would just take Schaefer/Misa and call it a day.

I should have clarified better. I meant trading their later 1sts and 2nds to move up in the 1st round while keeping their lottery pick

 

[Garbageyuk]

Seems pointless. They need a high end C prospect, and one will be available at 4, whether it’s Misa, Hagens, or Frondell.

If anything, they should try to move a package of their other picks in the top 50 for one of picks 7 (PIT), 8 (BUF), or 9 (ANA) and grab another top C prospect (Desnoyers, McQueen, O’Brien)

Imagine if they came out of round 1 with both Frondell and Desnoyers, for example.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

Seems pointless. They need a high end C prospect, and one will be available at 4, whether it’s Misa, Hagens, or Frondell.

If anything, they should try to move a package of their other picks in the top 50 for one of picks 7 (PIT), 8 (BUF), or 9 (ANA) and grab another top C prospect (Desnoyers, McQueen, O’Brien)

Imagine if they came out of round 1 with both Frondell and Desnoyers, for example.

Yeah that’s what I mean, keep #4 and bundle a few of the other picks together

 

[Garbageyuk]

I should have clarified better. I meant trading their later 1sts and 2nds to move up in the 1st round while keeping their lottery pick

That’s even dumber. Zero chance of moving into the top 3 without giving up pick #4, unless Michkov is on the table. No? Didn’t think so.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Yeah that’s what I mean, keep #4 and bundle a few of the other picks together

Gotcha. Yeah, might be doable. I thought you meant move up from 4.

But I think a lot of teams will be calling about getting into the top 10, MTL possibly being one of them, and they’d have PHI beat in terms of picks (16th & 17th).

I could maybe see PIT or BUF moving their picks, but still unlikely, imo. I think most teams in the top 10 are going to want to stay there, unless a crazy offer comes along (high upside young roster player, or bluechip prospect).

 

[MakeCgyGreatAgain]

My prediction is Flyers win the draft lottery. They are owed some good fortune after they lost Hischier and Nolan Patrick flopped.

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

My prediction is Flyers win the draft lottery. They are owed some good fortune after they lost Hischier and Nolan Patrick flopped.

They won't win, but losing Patrick Kane and getting JVR at 2 was worse, still stings to this day.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

Gotcha. Yeah, might be doable. I thought you meant move up from 4.

But I think a lot of teams will be calling about getting into the top 10, MTL possibly being one of them, and they’d have PHI beat in terms of picks (16th & 17th).

I could maybe see PIT or BUF moving their picks, but still unlikely, imo. I think most teams in the top 10 are going to want to stay there, unless a crazy offer comes along (high upside young roster player, or bluechip prospect).

Doesn’t need to be a top 10 pick. Could be from the 10-20 range with a combo of 2 or 3 of the picks

 

[MrLunatik]

That’s even dumber. Zero chance of moving into the top 3 without giving up pick #4, unless Michkov is on the table. No? Didn’t think so.

They never once said anything about moving up to the top 3.
Pretty sure they are talking about a deal like this:

2 firsts in teh 25-32 range and #48 for #11...

I wouldn't expect this to happen, but something like this could make sense to a team like the Pens who have only had 5 picks in the first 3 rounds in the past 3 years and it would give them more bullets as they're starting their rebuild.

I have looked at the Pens from the Flames perspective in trying to move up, which is why I thought of them.

 

[GKJ]

Briere has been wanting to move up the past two years, but teams simply don’t move down from he top of the draft. I think that was the real motivation to load up on picks this year, but now he might be too high in the draft to do it.

 

[Baksfamous112]

They shouldn’t bundle picks to move up. The Flyers need talent everywhere. Just make the picks and hope you hit a home run late in the 1st or 2nd to kickstart a much needed rebuild

 

[TheKingPin]

According to Tankathon the Flyers have 7 picks in the top 50 of the draft: 4 (lottery pending), Colorado 1st (playoffs pending), Edmonton 1st (playoffs pending), 36, 40, 45, and 48

Obviously hard to do without knowing who’s available until on the clock but any teams looking for do a quality for quantity trade?

I say just make the picks. Even having 4/12 top half 2nd round picks is pretty good if they know what they are doing. It’s a good window to find a 1D, maybe 1C, but have to be lucky.

Sometimes it's tough since trades within the top 5 typically are predicated on the team trading down still landing the guy they were planning on taking.

With the NFL Draft just happening, I think there can be a misconception that if you offer enough draft capital that the other team would eventually say yes. 2nd/3rd rounders are worth more in football since those guys will play immediately. As much as I like the NHL Draft, things tend to get sketchy by the back half of the first round and reputedly this year's class isn't deep.

Couple examples:

1993 - For better or worse, San Jose wanted Viktor Kozlov. So that was why they traded down with Hartford. Quebec/NYR also wanted Chris Pronger but they couldn't deliver Kozlov.

1998 - San Jose wanted a defenseman and Nashville wanted a forward as its first pick in franchise history. So they two teams worked out a swap between #2 and #3.

1999 - Tampa decided they were either taking Pavel Brendl or trading the pick. Brian Burke was rather public in his pursuit but was only offering a pair of 3rds to swap #1 for #4. Tampa decided to make Burke sweat to see if he'd increase his offer. Simultaneously they were also shopping the pick for multiple assets. Eventually they'd trade the pick to the Rangers who were also targeting Brendl. Since they were the middle man to deliver Brendl, Tampa ended up accepting Burke's offer.

2003 - Florida traded down from #1 to #3 not because they were floored by Pittsburgh's offer. Florida had Nathan Horton on top of their list, so Rick Dudley got a little extra value while still getting Horton at #3.

2006 - Boston offered #5 and #37 to Washington for #4. Washington asked who they were targeting and once Boston indicated they wanted Nicklas Backstrom, Washington quickly declined.

2012 - Garth Snow infamously offered his entire draft (#4, #34, #65, etc) to Columbus for #2 but they were turned down.

2013 - Calgary was rumored to have offered #6, #22, and #28 to Colorado for #1.

2015 - Toronto approached Columbus about swapping #4 for #8+ if their guy (Marner) was off the board. Columbus had a slight preference of Noah Hanifin to Zach Werenski, but they thought Toronto's ask (three 2nds) was too much. The two teams would link up later in the first round for a pick swap.

2017 - Vegas wanted to make a splash in its first draft and trade up to #1 for Nolan Patrick. New Jersey was amenable to trading down to #3 since they'd still be guaranteed at least one of Hischier/Makar would be available. But Vegas was unable to convince Dallas to trade down from #3 to #6.

-------------------

The other issue is that a lot of the teams in the lottery also have a lot of picks, so many probably aren't looking for quantity.

San Jose - SJS1, DAL1, SJS2, OTT2
Chicago - CHI1, TOR1, CHI2, DAL2
Nashville - NSH1, TBL1, VGK1, NSH2, TBL2
Boston - BOS1, STL2, CAR2
Seattle - SEA1, SEA2, TOR2
Buffalo - BUF1, BUF2
Anaheim - ANA1, EDM2 or WPG2
Pittsburgh - PIT1, NYR1*, WSH2
NY Islanders - NYI1, NYI2
NY Rangers - NYR1, NYR2
Detroit - DET1, DET2
Columbus - CLB1, MIN1

As things stand, I think most teams would just take Schaefer/Misa and call it a day.

Thanks for that post! Interesting stuff at the end too. With that much draft capital at the top of the draft it’s unlikely those teams will be able to trade with one another. I am not sure I see a clear path to get another top 1st with picks. I’d like to see TK for Buffalo’s 1st+. Hopefully get someone who falls this draft and another 1st next year while tanking for McKenna.

My prediction is Flyers win the draft lottery. They are owed some good fortune after they lost Hischier and Nolan Patrick flopped.

Patrick, JVR, Lindros, Primeau, Pronger, Hart. They have either lost their stars to injury or their stars never came and then there is Hart. Ready to start cashing some of that good luck credit in! Sad part is, even with a Dallas like draft, they still have a long way to go.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Unless it’s to move into the top 10 then I don’t see a player worth moving all those picks for.

The better odds play is make those picks - two late 1sts and the early/mid 2nd.

 

[Gliff]

This might be the worst trade to move down out of the top 10 in a while. I have no interest in moving down from 8.

 

[Brodeur]

I should have clarified better. I meant trading their later 1sts and 2nds to move up in the 1st round while keeping their lottery pick

Trading into the 17-20 range from ~25 might be possible, but I'm not sure I can remember a draft where so many 1sts have changed hands already.

The order might change, but as it stands right now:

17. Montreal
18. Calgary (via NJD)
19. St. Louis
20. Columbus (via MIN)
21. Ottawa
22. Calgary (via FLO)
23. Carolina
24. Philadelphia (via EDM)
25. Philadelphia (via COL)

St. Louis dealt its 2nd-4th rounders already, so maybe they could move down and recoup a pick or two. Probably depends on who's there.

For now Ottawa is supposed to forfeit a 1st round pick either this year or next year. We'll see if they end up choosing this year.

Carolina is a team that likes to move down and pick up an extra pick, but moving up a spot or two didn't sound like your plan.

But it's tough to say since the team trading down will probably have a target or two in mind. Some years teams can jump a few spots for just a 2nd rounder, but other years the fish refuses the bait. In 2013, Columbus had picks #14, #19, #27, and #44. I think they were trying to trade up but nobody wanted to move down. Similarly Buffalo had #8, #16, #35, and #38 and they were trying to move up from #16 to get Max Domi but couldn't find a dance partner.