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Other Sports: Philadelphia Eagles (NFL): THIS IS BRAZIL (Start Of 2024 Regular Season)

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JojoTheWhale

JojoTheWhale

Lemme unload.
May 22, 2008
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https://x.com/i/web/status/1839307899144908830

I'm interested to see what they do schematically this week because one of the reasons this gap is so big is that Hurts correctly throws 50-50 balls down the sideline to his 2 WRs. I want to say they could go heavy, but that's tough to do with the style of QB they have.

They're not going to install it in one week, but this is where some Brennan Marion style Near/Far out of Gun would fit super well. NFL defenses don't see it a ton either.
 
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DancingPanther

DancingPanther

Foundational Titan
Jun 19, 2018
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JojoTheWhale said:
https://x.com/i/web/status/1839307899144908830

I'm interested to see what they do schematically this week because one of the reasons this gap is so big is that Hurts correctly throws 50-50 balls down the sideline to his 2 WRs. I want to say they could go heavy, but that's tough to do with the style of QB they have.

They're not going to install it in one week, but this is where some Brennan Marion style Near/Far out of Gun would fit super well. NFL defenses don't see it a ton either.
Click to expand...
From a strictly theoretical perspective (ignoring NFL feasibility) the match for a quarterback like this is quick throws before the pressure gets there, right? The obvious drawback (again, not feasible) is that this predicates on your pass catchers winning off the line.

You have to imagine part (most?) of this is because his pocket presence is atrocious. Throws are much harder while improvising, no matter how easy Mahomes makes it look.
 
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JojoTheWhale

JojoTheWhale

Lemme unload.
May 22, 2008
34,926
108,707
DancingPanther said:
From a strictly theoretical perspective (ignoring NFL feasibility) the match for a quarterback like this is quick throws before the pressure gets there, right? The obvious drawback (again, not feasible) is that this predicates on your pass catchers winning off the line.

You have to imagine part (most?) of this is because his pocket presence is atrocious. Throws are much harder while improvising, no matter how easy Mahomes makes it look.
Click to expand...

I think there kind of have to be multiple causes for a gap to be this big. You’re absolutely correct about his pocket presence, but he’s also legitimately productive when not pressured. In a way, it shows both some of his strengths and weaknesses.
 
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JojoTheWhale

JojoTheWhale

Lemme unload.
May 22, 2008
34,926
108,707

The whole thing is very much worth a read, but this is quite the closing paragraph.

Our conversion probability model, while far from complete, is good for prediction. Nonetheless, it still seems surprising! We should consider recalibrating our intuition for conversion probabilities, especially for the favored team. For a heavily favored offense, 4th and 4 can be a 50-50 proposition and 4th and 8 can be nearly a 40% proposition. For an evenly matched team, subtract a yard to get the same probability (e.g., 4th and 3 can be a 50-50 proposition for a heavily favored offense). Perhaps if coaches internalized that they would be more opportunistic.
Click to expand...
 
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LegionOfDoom91

LegionOfDoom91

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Jan 25, 2013
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JojoTheWhale said:
@LegionOfDoom91 Theo Johnson just ran Malik Hooker down on a return flat footed and facing the wrong direction at the same spot on the field. Holy shit that guy can fly.
Click to expand...

He’s definitely an elite athlete, not sure how much of it translates to the field though.

They came in the same recruiting class & both were considered raw. Johnson was higher rated but I think Tyler Warren is just a better football player & he wasn’t even playing WR/TE coming out of high school (he was a HS QB). I don’t think he’ll put up elite testing numbers but he should put up good to very good ones & they’ve seemingly more so translated to the field. It’s been three games so far but it looks like it’s clicking for Warren this year.
 
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DancingPanther

DancingPanther

Foundational Titan
Jun 19, 2018
33,389
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JojoTheWhale said:

The whole thing is very much worth a read, but this is quite the closing paragraph.
Click to expand...
200,000 years ago if australopithcus heard a stick break, the answer was 100% run, because the downside was death. In reality, the "chance" a predator made that noise is very low. Human brains suck at probablility literally because of this.

So it's not surprising the downside of giving up the ball on downs is weighed wildly too high
 
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deadhead

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
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JojoTheWhale said:
I think there kind of have to be multiple causes for a gap to be this big. You’re absolutely correct about his pocket presence, but he’s also legitimately productive when not pressured. In a way, it shows both some of his strengths and weaknesses.
Click to expand...
Not sure how much is him and how much his OCs.
Up to now the offense was too based on his athleticism and I think that slowed his development.

By the end of this season, we'll not only see what Moore can do, but how well Hurts can run a "real" offense.
 
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