Jason Robertson is killing it for the Stars this season. So glad the Flyers picked the puck protection dumpster fire that is Isaac Ratcliffe. I’m still big mad about that goofy ass pick.
But I thought Hextall was a great GM!
Draft is a crapshoot, Hextall had his share of whiffs, but the average draft might produce one starter and one depth (4th line, 3rd pair) player.
No guarantees in the top 20, and hairy after that.
Typical draft, picking 11-15, odds are lower if your first pick is in the 20s.
0.39 of landing an Allstar
0.79 of a solid starter (play 400 games)
0.32 of a reserve (play 200 games).
Now if you add an extra 1st rd pick, your odds are better, but say a pick 16-20: .15 for the allstar, .28 for the solid starter, .12 for the reserve and still 40% shot at a whiff.
2014: Sanheim, Lindblom solid starters, NAK reserve
2015: Provorov, TK solid starters (extra #24), Fedotov? and Myers UDFA
2016: Hart, Allison, Laczynski
2017: Patrick, Frost, Cates (we can forgive Ratcliffe) (extra #27)
2018: Farabee, JOB, Ersson (extra #14)