PHANEUF to Ottawa in 9 player trade PART II

[NyQuil]

Didn't Buffalo block like 25 shots when they outshot us 2 games ago?

I think in games like that - corsi is valuable for understanding the flow of the game a little bit better.

Well, looking at this year's totals (and acknowledging the horrible home ice bias - if someone wants to separate out away blocked shots they are welcome to):

Detroit is last with 626. Colorado is tops with 1024. That's a pretty massive discrepancy.

Interestingly, Ottawa is 8th with 865.

Columbus who is 4th with 906 is roughly a hundred blocked shots ahead of 17th ranked Dallas, with 808.

Montreal who is 18th with 781 is roughly a hundred blocked shots ahead of 27th ranked Tampa Bay at 700.

So the vast majority of teams are in that 4th-27th range of 700-900 blocked shots.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?repor...2016&gameType=2&sort=blockedShots&aggregate=0

The Sabres, interestingly, are 22nd.

 

[Lenny the Lynx]

That's why it's so hard to thrive there. Montreal is worse though because their media throws language into the equation and somehow tries to relate speaking french with hockey skill That's why I like Ottawa in some respects because it's much more low key than TO or MTL.

To each his own. I prefer living in TO, I also loved living in Ottawa but its different. Its busier here, sometimes a little crazy to keep up with the pace, but there's a lot of good that comes with it.

But I'm not an NHL hockey player. If I was I wouldn't want to live here because you couldn't walk down the street without being harassed or blamed for 50 years of failure. Anyone half decent here starts to become the new hope and then they implode.

I remember a few years of Sens hockey where the eyeball test told me we couldn't hit the broadside of a barn shooting. Probably the years we had Condra.

Gonchar with the one timers!

 

[Burrowsaurus]

yea sometimes i feel that corsi isn't telling me anything new. do i need it to know that a team that gets outshot significantly or plays in their own zone but wins will eventually start losing?

I find corsi is good for finding some hidden gems is others teams bottom 6's. Or your own. I mean if you can get a possession driver in your fourth or third lines great. I would rather have that then the stereotypical guy who's hitting tons in his own zone cuz he's chasing the puck.

 

[Xspyrit]

Greening now with a goal and and assist since the trade.

Unpopular view around here but I thought the last few times we gave him a game he looked good, hungry, I think he will do well there, to our detriment. I would have much rather shipped them Chiasson and put him in. The contract was a killer though, not his fault, Murray's.

Don't worry Chiasson will be much better than Greening once he leaves Ottawa

Not every player can succeed in every city/team

He's perfectly fine as a 5/6. Problem is his salary will have to be in the 3 million range next year. That is too much for that role.

Really? He makes 2.0 now, what are the rules justifying that much of a raise?

Nah. Ceci wouldn't make the blatant errors the others did. And Ceci has the advantage of having both the strength and mobility to make up for any mistakes in his positioning or coverage.

Exactly.

I can count on 10 hands how many time ceci was caught leaving the zone too early. Which probably explains why he was bottom 5 in the league for scoring chances against for all defensemen with 400+ minutes.

He is an offensive D-man, like Karlsson who is among the worst in the league for that stat...

Phaneuf is a $7-8 million dollar D if Orpick is $5.5 million.

Fixed.

DP looking like a real solid add early on here, also neat to see some still completely disregarding "advanced stats"....didn't think there were many left that fail to see that they add to the bigger picture.

Nobody is "disregarding", we just know that it only tells a small portion of the story. It's just that some people talk in absolutes using those advanced stats. That's where it goes wrong.

He also has the most ES icetime in the league.

Klingberg is 5th, Goligoski is 6th, and Burns is 11th.

Do they do it ES/60?

Yes sorry, I have updated my post after.

So what?

They also compared him to Wendel Clark.

They make big deals about everything in Toronto.

Same in Montreal. And Ottawa is stuck in between

 

[Rocurs]

Really? He makes 2.0 now, what are the rules justifying that much of a raise?

His 2015/16 salary is $2.7M (versus $2.0M cap hit).

 

[God Says No]

Oh god, where to start...

OK. Let's start with the basics: the main base stats.

The Ol' Fashioned Stats
[table="head;width=500]Player|Goals|Assists|Points|PIM|Shots|Shooting %
Ceci|7|11|18|16|77|9.1%
Wiercioch|0|5|5|24|54|0%
[/TABLE]
[/QUOTE]

Yip, Ceci is better offensively than Wier this year by 13 points. It's not nothing, but nothing substantial. Again we are comparing crappy numbers to crappy numbers. But let's give Ceci the edge there, since THIS YEAR Wier is having a horrible offensive year. But I was more interested in the defensive play anyways...

[quote="BonkTastic, post: 114007607"]
OK, we got the obvious stuff out of the way, in which Ceci absolutely destroys Wiercioch.

Let's move on to some less reliable stats (less reliable as in: we can not be entirely confident that these numbers are accurate due to discrepancies between data-collectors), aka: "Real Time Stats"

Real Time Stats, aka: "The Fishy Ones"
[table="head;width=500]Player|Hits|Blocked Shots|Giveaways|Takeaways|Shots|Shooting %
Ceci|47|95|25|9|77|9.1%
Wiercioch|50|55|32|6|54|0%
[/TABLE]

OK, so hits are fairly even, but neither guy is much of an effective hitter nor is it a big part of their game, so that's a wash. Ceci has more blocked shots, less giveaways, more takeaways, and I left the shots and shooting % in there because I felt it needed to be underscored that Wier still hasn't scored a goal this year. Not a single goal. In 49 games. Not one. So there's that.
[/QUOTE]

Again, crappy numbers for BOTH. Not much separation, and you should know better than quoting giveaways and takeaways. They are as reliable as the local guy who is marking down the stat.

[quote="BonkTastic, post: 114007607"]
So what other stats do we have that aren't CORSI-based, or a metric based around shot attempts?
- On-Ice Sv%? Ceci beats Weir .949 to .931.
- Ceci has a higher % of offensive zone finishes based on his starts.

Again, not enough separation from the two to say that one player is superior to the other. Both are crap and have been crap.

On-Ice Sv%? You mean the stat that relies on the goalie? Ok. But, still again not enough seperation from Wier. So I guess if we go by that stat then we should have kept Cowen because he was right after Ceci. Basically, it's not very reliable. But like you said, these advanced stats are not reliable.

Offensive zone finish? The difference is what 3%, 4%? And what does that tell us? Not much I think.

You missed the point, no where did I mention that I think Wier is a superior player solely based on his advanced stats. I think he's been better this year because he's played better defense than Ceci. So you see how bad that is...

And to cap this whole post off, let's not forget that Ceci and Wier have played with eachother for most of the season. They play with each other roughly ~60% of their total TOI at 5v5. Who have been their other defensive partners this year? Well, Wiercioch's 2nd most common D-partner has been... oh, KARLSSON. Hmm. That probably bumps Wier's numbers a bit, lucky him. And Ceci, who is his 2nd most common d-partner? Wow, JARED FREAKING COWEN. So when not playing directly with Weir, Ceci has been able to drag Cowen's sorry arse around all season and probably take a massive stats hit, and yet STILL COMES OUT AHEAD OF WIERCIOCH IN ALMOST EVERY STAT THAT ISN'T A SHOT-BASED METRIC. And yet when not with Ceci, Wier has had the luxury of playing with the best offensive defenceman in the last 20 years of the history of the league.

Yip, you are right. Certain advanced stats will get the Karlsson effect, but again I wasn't talking about advanced stats solely. Ceci has been bad, but gets a pass since he can skate fast and is the only D that can carry the puck out of the zone that is not named Karlsson. Both Ceci and Wier have been bad, and the point I was making is that Ceci has been worst than Wier on many a nights. There isn't an advanced stat, nor a "regular" stat that will show that in black and white.

OH YEAH, and Ceci can actually play defence once and a while. There's that too. Let me make this clear, in a stat that I couldn't even make up if I tried - Ceci has twice as much PK time in just this season (125:10) than Wiercioch has literally in his entire career combined (57:43).

I dunno man... is there any other stats you want to touch on? Feel free to contribute to this otherwise decidedly one-sided debate whenever you get the chance.

PK time has nothing to do with defensive acuity. You should know that. I don't think Cowen should have played PK, but that didn't stop DC from putting him out there.

And that's where I disagree. Ceci can't play defense and it's pretty apparent if you really watch him. He's been as bad as Wier playing D. Same with Cowen, same with Boro. That's the issue with this team. Too many defensive dead weights. But wait, he's got 13 more points!

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Yip, Ceci is better offensively than Wier this year by 13 points. It's not nothing, but nothing substantial. Again we are comparing crappy numbers to crappy numbers. But let's give Ceci the edge there, since THIS YEAR Wier is having a horrible offensive year. But I was more interested in the defensive play anyways...



Again, crappy numbers for BOTH. Not much separation, and you should know better than quoting giveaways and takeaways. They are as reliable as the local guy who is marking down the stat.



Again, not enough separation from the two to say that one player is superior to the other. Both are crap and have been crap.

On-Ice Sv%? You mean the stat that relies on the goalie? Ok. But, still again not enough seperation from Wier. So I guess if we go by that stat then we should have kept Cowen because he was right after Ceci. Basically, it's not very reliable. But like you said, these advanced stats are not reliable.

Offensive zone finish? The difference is what 3%, 4%? And what does that tell us? Not much I think.

You missed the point, no where did I mention that I think Wier is a superior player solely based on his advanced stats. I think he's been better this year because he's played better defense than Ceci. So you see how bad that is...



Yip, you are right. Certain advanced stats will get the Karlsson effect, but again I wasn't talking about advanced stats solely. Ceci has been bad, but gets a pass since he can skate fast and is the only D that can carry the puck out of the zone that is not named Karlsson. Both Ceci and Wier have been bad, and the point I was making is that Ceci has been worst than Wier on many a nights. There isn't an advanced stat, nor a "regular" stat that will show that in black and white.



PK time has nothing to do with defensive acuity. You should know that. I don't think Cowen should have played PK, but that didn't stop DC from putting him out there.

And that's where I disagree. Ceci can't play defense and it's pretty apparent if you really watch him. He's been as bad as Wier playing D. Same with Cowen, same with Boro. That's the issue with this team. Too many defensive dead weights. But wait, he's got 13 more points!

There is some really poor reasoning in this post and I disagree with every single thing written.

 

[BonkTastic]

Yip, Ceci is better offensively than Wier this year by 13 points. It's not nothing, but nothing substantial. Again we are comparing crappy numbers to crappy numbers. But let's give Ceci the edge there, since THIS YEAR Wier is having a horrible offensive year. But I was more interested in the defensive play anyways...



Again, crappy numbers for BOTH. Not much separation, and you should know better than quoting giveaways and takeaways. They are as reliable as the local guy who is marking down the stat.



Again, not enough separation from the two to say that one player is superior to the other. Both are crap and have been crap.

On-Ice Sv%? You mean the stat that relies on the goalie? Ok. But, still again not enough seperation from Wier. So I guess if we go by that stat then we should have kept Cowen because he was right after Ceci. Basically, it's not very reliable. But like you said, these advanced stats are not reliable.

Offensive zone finish? The difference is what 3%, 4%? And what does that tell us? Not much I think.

You missed the point, no where did I mention that I think Wier is a superior player solely based on his advanced stats. I think he's been better this year because he's played better defense than Ceci. So you see how bad that is...



Yip, you are right. Certain advanced stats will get the Karlsson effect, but again I wasn't talking about advanced stats solely. Ceci has been bad, but gets a pass since he can skate fast and is the only D that can carry the puck out of the zone that is not named Karlsson. Both Ceci and Wier have been bad, and the point I was making is that Ceci has been worst than Wier on many a nights. There isn't an advanced stat, nor a "regular" stat that will show that in black and white.



PK time has nothing to do with defensive acuity. You should know that. I don't think Cowen should have played PK, but that didn't stop DC from putting him out there.

And that's where I disagree. Ceci can't play defense and it's pretty apparent if you really watch him. He's been as bad as Wier playing D. Same with Cowen, same with Boro. That's the issue with this team. Too many defensive dead weights. But wait, he's got 13 more points!

So let me get this straight...
1) you said, and I quote: " Wier has been bad, but arguably Ceci has been worst.
2) I said Ceci was better than Wiercioch by a majority of metrics (save for corsi) we have to measure such things
3) you disagree, and then ask me for a list of such stats.
4) I provide a list of stats, and encourage you to provide any further stats you would Ike to debate about
5) your rebuttal condemns stats alltogether in favor of an "I was talking about defence the whole time" approach.

Like... why did you even ask me for stats in the first place, then? Why not be up front about wanting to discuss the defensive merits of one Patrick Wiercioch?


Also: the fact that you are even suggesting that we deconstruct the game of Patrick Wiercioch on the defensive end of things in order to somehow make him look like a salvageable player is hilarious on several levels.

 

[Lenny the Lynx]

I have one irrefutable stat to share: Wiercioch blows

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I have one irrefutable stat to share: Wiercioch blows

Sold

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Can we at least come to the conclusion that wier > boro. And boro - wideman < woercioch wideman

 

[HavlatMach9]

boro is the player other players make up for by playing as hard as boro

 

[Cat Dad Sixty Nine]

I like Boro on the bottom pairing.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

boro is the player other players make up for by playing as hard as boro

Yes. As showcased in the whole teams never say die balls to the wall attitude for 95% of the season haha

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I like Boro on the bottom pairing.

I like him in press
Box. Getting ~20 games a season

 

[HavlatMach9]

Yes. As showcased in the whole teams never say die balls to the wall attitude for 95% of the season haha

i should say in theory. i'm sure it'd be fine if boro was a #7

 

[God Says No]

So let me get this straight...
1) you said, and I quote: " Wier has been bad, but arguably Ceci has been worst.
2) I said Ceci was better than Wiercioch by a majority of metrics (save for corsi) we have to measure such things
3) you disagree, and then ask me for a list of such stats.
4) I provide a list of stats, and encourage you to provide any further stats you would Ike to debate about
5) your rebuttal condemns stats alltogether in favor of an "I was talking about defence the whole time" approach.

Like... why did you even ask me for stats in the first place, then? Why not be up front about wanting to discuss the defensive merits of one Patrick Wiercioch?


Also: the fact that you are even suggesting that we deconstruct the game of Patrick Wiercioch on the defensive end of things in order to somehow make him look like a salvageable player is hilarious on several levels.

Huh, when did I say Wier is a salvageable player? I think I was pretty clear in my statements that Wier is not very good, but also that Ceci is not very good so he shouldn't get a pass. Actually he's been worst than Wier defensively.

I asked for the stats because I was genuinely curious what stats you were thinking of. Which after you posted them pretty much confirmed what I was thinking. There isn't any black and white stat neither normal nor advanced that will show that either one is better than the other. There are some that Wier has better numbers and some where Ceci has better numbers. But one thing is for certain, they are both in the same boat. They are not good defensively. But Ceci can skate fast, so I guess he can play D. My bad.

 

[aragorn]

Here is a list of the top 10 defencemen from 1st to worse in the organization IMO.
1. Karlsson
2. Phaneuf
3. Methot - I expect his play will start to drop off a little each month.
4. Ceci - I expect Ceci to be 3rd on this list maybe as soon as next season.
5. Boroweicki - should have another yr on the roster before looking over his shoulder.
6. Chabot - I expect he should be NHL ready at the end of his first Bingo season.
7. Wideman - I think Wideman will eventually be replaced on the roster by Chabot.
8. Claesson - he could be in Ottawa next season to replace Wiercioch.
9. Kostka - not sure if he will be re-signed but could be a call up next season.
10. Wiercioch - I expect he should be traded at the deadline or at the draft, but who knows.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Here is a list of the top 10 defencemen from 1st to worse in the organization IMO.
1. Karlsson
2. Phaneuf
3. Methot - I expect his play will start to drop off a little each month.
4. Ceci - I expect Ceci to be 3rd on this list maybe as soon as next season.
5. Boroweicki - should have another yr on the roster before looking over his shoulder.
6. Chabot - I expect he should be NHL ready at the end of his first Bingo season.
7. Wideman - I think Wideman will eventually be replaced on the roster by Chabot.
8. Claesson - he could be in Ottawa next season to replace Wiercioch.
9. Kostka - not sure if he will be re-signed but could be a call up next season.
10. Wiercioch - I expect he should be traded at the deadline or at the draft, but who knows.

I disagree with most of this. But especially chabot being lower than boro. Chabot is a better defenseman than boro right now.

 

[aragorn]

I disagree with most of this. But especially chabot being lower than boro. Chabot is a better defenseman than boro right now.

That could be argued offensively but probably not defensively given his age & never have played a minute in an NHL game. I would also argue that Boro brings an element of toughness & grit that Chabot doesn't have which I'm quite sure you give absolutely no value to but I bet the coaching staff & management do.

And if he is better than he should be in the lineup now or next season if the best players play but I would guess they give him at least a yr in the AHL. I would also bet that if he replaces anyone on the roster in Ottawa it would be Wideman instead of Boro & Boro would move over to RD. I would guess that your opinion is that you like the player better or think he will be a better defenceman which I do too but it doesn't mean he is a better defenceman today or he would be in the NHL.

 

[BonkTastic]

Huh, when did I say Wier is a salvageable player?

Eh, valid point.

Actually he's been worst than Wier defensively.

Well, we're just going to have to disagree here, then.

 

[BonkTastic]

Here is a list of the top 10 defencemen from 1st to worse in the organization IMO.
1. Karlsson
2. Phaneuf
3. Methot - I expect his play will start to drop off a little each month.
4. Ceci - I expect Ceci to be 3rd on this list maybe as soon as next season.
5. Boroweicki - should have another yr on the roster before looking over his shoulder.
6. Chabot - I expect he should be NHL ready at the end of his first Bingo season.
7. Wideman - I think Wideman will eventually be replaced on the roster by Chabot.
8. Claesson - he could be in Ottawa next season to replace Wiercioch.
9. Kostka - not sure if he will be re-signed but could be a call up next season.
10. Wiercioch - I expect he should be traded at the deadline or at the draft, but who knows.

Look, I dislike Wiercioch as much as the next guy, but he's at the very least better than Kostka.

I mean, I'm willing to give the guy at least a little credit here. Let's not get crazy.

 

[Lenny the Lynx]

Can we at least come to the conclusion that wier > boro. And boro - wideman < woercioch wideman

Sure, lets also agree that eating dirt > eating cigarette butts

I'd love to see all of these bums gone. Maybe Wideman gets a bit more time as a 7th since he's a rookie.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

That could be argued offensively but probably not defensively given his age & never have played a minute in an NHL game. I would also argue that Boro brings an element of toughness & grit that Chabot doesn't have which I'm quite sure you give absolutely no value to but I bet the coaching staff & management do.

And if he is better than he should be in the lineup now or next season if the best players play but I would guess they give him at least a yr in the AHL. I would also bet that if he replaces anyone on the roster in Ottawa it would be Wideman instead of Boro & Boro would move over to RD. I would guess that your opinion is that you like the player better or think he will be a better defenceman which I do too but it doesn't mean he is a better defenceman today or he would be in the NHL.

N I meant right now. Boro does bring an element of toughness. Which I don't hate. I hate it in the lineup night in night out. There's toughness. But there is no semblance of sound defence

 

[Micklebot]

Eh, valid point.



Well, we're just going to have to disagree here, then.

I would peg Ceci and a bit better defensively for most of the season (and much better for most of his career), but oddly found he gave up the puck to forcheckers far more often than Wier for much of the season.

The thing is unlike Wier, Ceci has has some really strong games, where imo, Wier has just had some pretty good games.