PENS vs Montreal Canadiens Round 1 (Best Of Five)

[CascadiaPenguin]

As I said, likely motivation. Caps are only playing for pecking order in the first round. Not their playoff lives.

As are the Flyers. (my query was Flyers/Caps, in case that wasn't clear- both teams have the psuedo bye)

 

[Empoleon8771]

I just don’t see that happening. That likely means you also are moving out Murray, Bjugstad, and JJ which seems like a lot to accomplish this off season.

Also a 3rd line that effectively is going to be 4th in terms of TOI that costs around 10 million if we are being conservative makes me feel iffy. Especially since the Penguins seem to be very good at drafting and producing defensive 4th liners that can chip in 15-25 points fairly easily.

I think you can knock out 2 of these 3 with 1 trade, package Murray with either JJ or Bjugstad and get a lesser return for Murray.

Why can't the Penguins use the ZAR-Blueger-Tanev line as the "4th line in terms of TOI"? Why can't they ease the ES minutes off of Crosby and Malkin some to run with 2 3rd lines?

 

[Peat]

I think you can knock out 2 of these 3 with 1 trade, package Murray with either JJ or Bjugstad and get a lesser return for Murray.

Why can't the Penguins use the ZAR-Blueger-Tanev line as the "4th line in terms of TOI"? Why can't they ease the ES minutes off of Crosby and Malkin some to run with 2 3rd lines?

There's no reason they can't.

I'm just not sure there's much more reason to think they will. Sully hasn't looked all that interested in doing so recently.

 

[Empoleon8771]

There's no reason they can't.

I'm just not sure there's much more reason to think they will. Sully hasn't looked all that interested in doing so recently.

Sullivan is also using the ZAR-Blueger-Tanev line with similar ice time as he's using the Marleau-McCann-Hornqvist line (or whatever the 3rd line would be). I don't see why that can't continue.

When the Penguins last had a strong 3rd and 4th line in 16-17, they had Bonino at 12:30 a night at ES and Cullen at 11:00. I don't see why they can't do something along those lines, where both the 3rd and 4th lines are around 11-12 minutes a night at ES and get 2-3 minutes a night on special teams. Outside of the 3rd line LW spot, all of McCann, Hornqvist, ZAR, Blueger and Tanev can get substantial special teams minutes.

Edit: for reference, Blueger and McCann are both at about 13 minutes a night at ES this year, but that's with Crosby and Malkin being out for a substantial amount of games this year. All of ZAR, Blueger, Tanev, McCann and Hornqvist are between 12:12 and 13:13 ES TOI/game this year.

 

[McGroarty2]

Flyers are tied for fourth, barely below the three teams tied for third?!? 50% better odds than the Caps (and the Pens for that matter)? That is crazy. I know they were hot, but good luck with that. Wonder why Caps' odds aren't better, you'd think missing the play-in round would have them at least as favorable as the Flyers. But why am I wasting time thinking about this. Screw both of those teams.

Are the Caps going to hang a banner for not having to play a play-in round?

 

[Peat]

Sullivan is also using the ZAR-Blueger-Tanev line with similar ice time as he's using the Marleau-McCann-Hornqvist line (or whatever the 3rd line would be). I don't see why that can't continue.

When the Penguins last had a strong 3rd and 4th line in 16-17, they had Bonino at 12:30 a night at ES and Cullen at 11:00. I don't see why they can't do something along those lines, where both the 3rd and 4th lines are around 11-12 minutes a night at ES and get 2-3 minutes a night on special teams. Outside of the 3rd line LW spot, all of McCann, Hornqvist, ZAR, Blueger and Tanev can get substantial special teams minutes.

Edit: for reference, Blueger and McCann are both at about 13 minutes a night at ES this year, but that's with Crosby and Malkin being out for a substantial amount of games this year. All of ZAR, Blueger, Tanev, McCann and Hornqvist are between 12:12 and 13:13 ES TOI/game this year.

Last 10 games of the season, Blueger and Tanev had about a minute each a night more than McCann at 5v5. , Tanev's only 24 more seconds at ES but Blueger stays a minute more at ES. I don't don't know how you define similar here but to me that's not that similar, and it's certainly not giving the Blueger the 4th line minutes. And giving Blueger 4th least ice time of the Cs is what you said and what I responded to.

A 12:30 a night ES centre and a 11 a night ES centre is happening but I'm not wild about sinking that much into the 11 a night guy. It's a nice way to run a team but it's a bit of a luxury. And right now McCann is indisputably the 11 a night guy and I'm not sure how likely that is to change.

I mean, in terms of overall wins, what's the difference between Lafferty/Rodrigues doing 10 minutes a night with everyone else getting an extra 20 seconds, and McCann at 11, assuming same linemates over a whole season?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Last 10 games of the season, Blueger and Tanev had about a minute each a night more than McCann at 5v5. , Tanev's only 24 more seconds at ES but Blueger stays a minute more at ES. I don't don't know how you define similar here but to me that's not that similar, and it's certainly not giving the Blueger the 4th line minutes. And giving Blueger 4th least ice time of the Cs is what you said and what I responded to.

A 12:30 a night ES centre and a 11 a night ES centre is happening but I'm not wild about sinking that much into the 11 a night guy. It's a nice way to run a team but it's a bit of a luxury. And right now McCann is indisputably the 11 a night guy and I'm not sure how likely that is to change.

I mean, in terms of overall wins, what's the difference between Lafferty/Rodrigues doing 10 minutes a night with everyone else getting an extra 20 seconds, and McCann at 11, assuming same linemates over a whole season?

Couldn't you argue the same exact point about Blueger, seeing how he's due for an extension after next year? Not to mention he's a UFA after next year, meaning he'd likely be more expensive to retain.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I'm just glad a 2nd round pick from the Penguins finally worked out.

*fingers crossed nothing happens to my boy Teddy*

 

[Jaded-Fan]

I understand that, hence my question- why are their odds 50% better than the Caps, another on-play-in team who was above them in the standings when the season was suspended? Did Ovie move back to the Motherland?

I saw it explained that the Flyers would be hungrier as it is only a tune up round and they have more to prove.

But who knows? As someone pointed out the Caps love their banners and may want to hang another for winning the NHL playoffs preseason.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I do ultimately think that the Penguins will have to pick one of McCann or Blueger to move, with the remaining one being the 3C and Lafferty siding into the 4C spot, but why rush to that decision? Especially when the Penguins think McCann is a good LW option as well. If the Penguins think so highly of Blueger (which I do think they do), why not run with McCann-Blueger-Hornqvist as a 3rd line and ZAR-Lafferty-Tanev as a 4th line? Hell, you can also do Rodrigues as the 4C on that line too.

I just don't really see a reason why the Penguins should be looking to move young and talented players right now.

 

[Andy99]

I think with the pandemic a lot of players are going to have to accept cheaper one year deals...in fact, that might be preferable for some of the RFAs given revenue projections ...but I think the Pens would be able to keep both goalies, McCann, Simon and whoever else is a RFA if they want to...hell, Schultz might even sign for a one year deal on the cheap...I don’t think a lot of money for FAs is going to be thrown around in the Fall..I’m not particularly worried about paying players next season..if things go back to normal in 2021, then yes, after that could be an issue...the Pens shouldn’t be signing any players now to longer term contracts with high AAVs

 

[Peat]

Couldn't you argue the same exact point about Blueger, seeing how he's due for an extension after next year? Not to mention he's a UFA after next year, meaning he'd likely be more expensive to retain.

Could I guess, but doesn't make as much sense to me given Blueger seems clearly lined up to be 3A and this is based around what a guess on what the team is going to do next season. McCann as 3B on 11 ES minutes a night for 3m+ raises questions. Blueger as 3A on 12-ish ES minutes a night for 750k raises none other than "shouldn't they switch McCann and Blueger" to which the answer seems to be "Idk but it seems pretty set they won't".

Also if you're talking maybe losing a C to bolster depth elsewhere next season, McCann clearly has better trade value. I daresay you'd get a decent return for Blueger, but really the only reason to move him would be if you wanted Sully to stop using him. Meanwhile McCann is our fourth choice centre (not by much, but still) who's about to cost 3m+ and who's probably at peak trade value.

I do ultimately think that the Penguins will have to pick one of McCann or Blueger to move, with the remaining one being the 3C and Lafferty siding into the 4C spot, but why rush to that decision? Especially when the Penguins think McCann is a good LW option as well. If the Penguins think so highly of Blueger (which I do think they do), why not run with McCann-Blueger-Hornqvist as a 3rd line and ZAR-Lafferty-Tanev as a 4th line? Hell, you can also do Rodrigues as the 4C on that line too.

I just don't really see a reason why the Penguins should be looking to move young and talented players right now.

You can do that but again, using a guy who might have the trade value of a kinda-2nd centre as a 3rd line LW (that being an area of the roster we're not that hard up in) again raises the question of whether it's the best use.

And I guess another way of framing this is "I'd like the Pens to have a little look at another good top 6er for the RW and a high quality 3rd pairing dman, particularly one we can smuggle through expansion" and if we're talking about how we could do it, McCann's name would be the only real guy on the roster jumping off the list other than goaltenders, and we're a little stretched on having the off roster assets to do it.

 

[Gurglesons]

Could I guess, but doesn't make as much sense to me given Blueger seems clearly lined up to be 3A and this is based around what a guess on what the team is going to do next season. McCann as 3B on 11 ES minutes a night for 3m+ raises questions. Blueger as 3A on 12-ish ES minutes a night for 750k raises none other than "shouldn't they switch McCann and Blueger" to which the answer seems to be "Idk but it seems pretty set they won't".

Also if you're talking maybe losing a C to bolster depth elsewhere next season, McCann clearly has better trade value. I daresay you'd get a decent return for Blueger, but really the only reason to move him would be if you wanted Sully to stop using him. Meanwhile McCann is our fourth choice centre (not by much, but still) who's about to cost 3m+ and who's probably at peak trade value.



You can do that but again, using a guy who might have the trade value of a kinda-2nd centre as a 3rd line LW (that being an area of the roster we're not that hard up in) again raises the question of whether it's the best use.

And I guess another way of framing this is "I'd like the Pens to have a little look at another good top 6er for the RW and a high quality 3rd pairing dman, particularly one we can smuggle through expansion" and if we're talking about how we could do it, McCann's name would be the only real guy on the roster jumping off the list other than goaltenders, and we're a little stretched on having the off roster assets to do it.

I think the most important way to look at this is what McCann thinks he is. If he is willing to take a Kapanen like deal, it makes the decision to keep him a lot easier. If he views himself as a center and wants to be paid along 3C lines his contract is either taking him right to UFA or we are paying in salary or term to get it down.

McCann at 2.5-3.2 x 4 years is a solid contract for what he is. Winger / C hybrid.

McCann at 3.5-4 x 2-3 is kind of ugly given Bleuger is likely being used above him in most situations.

 

[K Fleur]

It’s a shame we won’t have all time Canadiens great Alex Galchensuck for this series.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Wing wise - Marleau won't be back, Legare is a RW, Poulin is probably a RW too here and probably not ready and I already mentioned Simon. It's not a bad situation, but it's not a great situation where it's better to be Pittsburgh's 3C than anywhere else's.

The disconnect here is that I don't understand why McCann needs a better bottom 6 center situation here than elsewhere. He's not only already shown he can produce at a 33 point pace without better linemates or top 6 time, he's also shown he can produce at a 40+ point pace when greater opportunities arise. Plus, he's still young enough that he's a solid bet to keep improving.

D wise - I think you are way overtrusting of a career 7D, a guy who's only looked good with soft deployments, and a guy who's never played in the NHL. There's a real want, almost need, for a guy there.

This year we got it done with JJ and zombie Schultz. The bar ain't exactly high.

"Soft deployment" or not, Riikola and Ruhwedel were effective together over a decent sample size...enough to warrant a longer look IMO:

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

I don't put an awful lot of stock in numbering lines or pairings. JJ got played like a top 4 defenseman but he's absolute trash. Ruhwedel is a nominal #7, but he was effective when he wasn't saddled with JJ:

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

The problem is that the org feels compelled to play a terrible veteran way out of his depth because of his albatross contract. By rights, Ruhwedel should've been a regular and the other guy should've been riding pine.

C wise - Before this injury hit season, Bjugstad was being at least an equal 3C to McCann here. Been a bit of a stylistic shift but, if he can stay fit and I don't think I've seen anything saying this is the end for him, I don't see why he can't do it again. Rodrigues... yeah, I'm not super high on him either, but I don't mind him given a shot. Or Lafferty. Particularly if Blueger ends up the C with the 3rd highest 5v5 ToI again.

I mean, he was really bad this year too. He's coming off almost a full-season injury, and he was sidelined for 18 games the season before.

As for the picks - ideally you'd flip them right away, but I'd be happy keeping them to work with in season. If you can get a borderline 2-3C valuation for him in picks when he's the 3B C here, it does seem likely to me you can end up being a better team.

If McCann comes out in any eventual post-season and is decisively 3C, I'll change my mind a little. If he's still a little behind Blueger, the possibility of trading him will make a little more sense.

I still don't see how the 3C/4C distinction matters if McCann puts up numbers like he has historically and continues to play good defense. It'd be great to be able to roll 4 lines like we did in the Cup years.

Trade the guy if it makes the team better now by filling a need. If not, don't.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Last 10 games of the season, Blueger and Tanev had about a minute each a night more than McCann at 5v5. , Tanev's only 24 more seconds at ES but Blueger stays a minute more at ES. I don't don't know how you define similar here but to me that's not that similar, and it's certainly not giving the Blueger the 4th line minutes. And giving Blueger 4th least ice time of the Cs is what you said and what I responded to.

A 12:30 a night ES centre and a 11 a night ES centre is happening but I'm not wild about sinking that much into the 11 a night guy. It's a nice way to run a team but it's a bit of a luxury. And right now McCann is indisputably the 11 a night guy and I'm not sure how likely that is to change.

I mean, in terms of overall wins, what's the difference between Lafferty/Rodrigues doing 10 minutes a night with everyone else getting an extra 20 seconds, and McCann at 11, assuming same linemates over a whole season?

Methinks you're extrapolating way too much from a 10 game sample size with extenuating circumstances. Like, I didn't want to see McCann-Hornqvist very much with the 3LW options we had available at the time either.

Could I guess, but doesn't make as much sense to me given Blueger seems clearly lined up to be 3A and this is based around what a guess on what the team is going to do next season. McCann as 3B on 11 ES minutes a night for 3m+ raises questions. Blueger as 3A on 12-ish ES minutes a night for 750k raises none other than "shouldn't they switch McCann and Blueger" to which the answer seems to be "Idk but it seems pretty set they won't".

Also if you're talking maybe losing a C to bolster depth elsewhere next season, McCann clearly has better trade value. I daresay you'd get a decent return for Blueger, but really the only reason to move him would be if you wanted Sully to stop using him. Meanwhile McCann is our fourth choice centre (not by much, but still) who's about to cost 3m+ and who's probably at peak trade value.

But what's the rush? Why choose Blueger or McCann before we have to?

Time's an asset. We need to use it unless something that can help us more now gives us a good reason to accelerate the process.

 

[Gurglesons]

Methinks you're extrapolating way too much from a 10 game sample size with extenuating circumstances. Like, I didn't want to see McCann-Hornqvist very much with the 3LW options we had available at the time either.



But what's the rush? Why choose Blueger or McCann before we have to?

Time's an asset. We need to use it unless something that can help us more now gives us a good reason to accelerate the process.

Is anyone saying give away McCann? The stipulation is trading him for a prospect that is as close to can’t miss as we can get that is a RW or RD or a comparable aged player.

And I don’t see how @Peat is extrapolating too much from basically the only sample size we have with a healthy roster. And you might say “but we had Sid, Malkin, McCann and Teddy all healthy” which is true, but McCann was getting a ton of usage on LW during Jan and Feb due to injuries there.

 

[Peat]

Honestly, I didn't bother looking at it deeply as I thought everybody had noticed that Sully uses Blueger more than McCann when at C. 13:21 at 5v5 vs 12:18 when Sid was out. The last 10 games merely confirms Sully hasn't changed his mind yet. And while I try to get less and less pinned to certainties in this game, I don't see why anyone's thinking it's going to change if both players' form continues. Sully clearly really likes Blueger and likes him as the first choice to take defensive loads off of Sid & Geno.

But what's the rush? Why choose Blueger or McCann before we have to?

Time's an asset. We need to use it unless something that can help us more now gives us a good reason to accelerate the process.

Because McCann's value is possibly/probably at a point high enough to get a player who helps more than the guy who is 4C/3LW when everybody is healthy, and will possibly/probably never be that high again if that is next season's usage of him.

And this is what it boils down to. Usage. I don't think McCann is going to outperform his usage. If he's on an average third line, I expect average third line numbers. If he's on a really good third line/gets a ton of chances thanks to injuries, I expect higher than average third line numbers. If he's getting high fourth line time and is the first person to find his linemates go missing, I expect a bit lower than average third line numbers.

And I think the last scenario is pretty likely.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Is anyone saying give away McCann? The stipulation is trading him for a prospect that is as close to can’t miss as we can get that is a RW or RD or a comparable aged player.

That's where we disagree. That hurts our depth and makes us worse.

We shouldn't be looking to move versatile, productive young players for unproven futures during these years.

And I don’t see how [B]@Peat[/B] is extrapolating too much from basically the only sample size we have with a healthy roster. And you might say “but we had Sid, Malkin, McCann and Teddy all healthy” which is true, but McCann was getting a ton of usage on LW during Jan and Feb due to injuries there.

1. It was 10 games.
2. The roster wasn't healthy, that's the point. Guentzel was out, so Marleau moved up and any 3LW option we had was brutal. Of course you play Blueger's line more than that jumbled mess.

Because McCann's value is possibly/probably at a point high enough to get a player who helps more than the guy who is 4C/3LW when everybody is healthy, and will possibly/probably never be that high again if that is next season's usage of him.

And this is what it boils down to. Usage. I don't think McCann is going to outperform his usage. If he's on an average third line, I expect average third line numbers. If he's on a really good third line/gets a ton of chances thanks to injuries, I expect higher than average third line numbers. If he's getting high fourth line time and is the first person to find his linemates go missing, I expect a bit lower than average third line numbers.

And I think the last scenario is pretty likely.

Scoring RW or (not my choice but defensible) bottom pair d? Fair enough.

Prospects or draft picks? Why? We're trying to wring whatever we can out of these seasons. Quality depth for non-roster asset doesn't register for me.

 

[Gurglesons]

That's where we disagree. That hurts our depth and makes us worse.

We shouldn't be looking to move versatile, productive young players for unproven futures during these years.



1. It was 10 games.
2. The roster wasn't healthy, that's the point. Guentzel was out, so Marleau moved up and any 3LW option we had was brutal. Of course you play Blueger's line more than that jumbled mess.



Scoring RW or (not my choice but defensible) bottom pair d? Fair enough.

Prospects or draft picks? Why? We're trying to wring whatever we can out of these seasons. Quality depth for non-roster asset doesn't register for me.

I think by prospect @Peat and I are talking an ELC player ready to step in next year that has potential to be a top six RW or top four RD. Someone like Petts prior to coming over.

Off the top of my head someone like Valimaki, Timmens or Lindgren on D or Vesalinen or Kunin on RW.

 

[Peat]

Scoring RW or (not my choice but defensible) bottom pair d? Fair enough.

Prospects or draft picks? Why? We're trying to wring whatever we can out of these seasons. Quality depth for non-roster asset doesn't register for me.

I think by prospect @Peat and I are talking an ELC player ready to step in next year that has potential to be a top six RW or top four RD. Someone like Petts prior to coming over.

Off the top of my head someone like Valimaki, Timmens or Lindgren on D or Vesalinen or Kunin on RW.

I am willing to do it for enough futures that I'm absolutely sure of getting what I want in season but that's it - the move has to make the roster stronger before the next deadline for it to make sense. Think we all agree there.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think we'll smack the Hell outta Montreal.

But, it's been so long since anyone's really played hockey, who knows? It doesn't even really feel worth the time to talk about stuff from this season. Things have been on the shelf for so long this is like having the playoffs in October.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I think by prospect @Peat and I are talking an ELC player ready to step in next year that has potential to be a top six RW or top four RD. Someone like Petts prior to coming over.

Off the top of my head someone like Valimaki, Timmens or Lindgren on D or Vesalinen or Kunin on RW.

Out of that group, Kunin's the only one I'd be intrigued by (in a McCann deal) because he's shown he can perform over a full season and he fills a role we need. Kind of an RH McCann in some ways. The other are magic beans...solid prospects, but magic beans nonetheless.

I am willing to do it for enough futures that I'm absolutely sure of getting what I want in season but that's it - the move has to make the roster stronger before the next deadline for it to make sense. Think we all agree there.

We get worse in the interim though. I'd have to see what we use McCann's projected cap hit for over the season, and the deadline acquisition would have to be something pretty stellar.

 

[Gurglesons]

Out of that group, Kunin's the only one I'd be intrigued by (in a McCann deal) because he's shown he can perform over a full season and he fills a role we need. Kind of an RH McCann in some ways. The other are magic beans...solid prospects, but magic beans nonetheless.



We get worse in the interim though. I'd have to see what we use McCann's projected cap hit for over the season, and the deadline acquisition would have to be something pretty stellar.

I think you are overrating the value McCann brings on a healthy roster where he’d be our 4th used center tbh and are blinded by the production he has put up as a LW and top six center.

I honestly think the difference between a fourth line of Rodrigues - McCann - Hornqvist versus Rodrigues - Lafferty - Hornqvist is minimal at best. And if not minimal, it is definitely not with the 3 million dollar difference.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I think you are overrating the value McCann brings on a healthy roster where he’d be our 4th used center tbh and are blinded by the production he has put up as a LW and top six center.

I honestly think the difference between a fourth line of Rodrigues - McCann - Hornqvist versus Rodrigues - Lafferty - Hornqvist is minimal at best.

I'm referencing his established production over the last 3 years on two different teams with and without top 6 time.

I think you underrate McCann's value based on his performance 4-5 years ago as a 19-20 year old and overrate Rodrigues, who produced on pace for 18 points last year. Even as a teenager, McCann has never paced for so little. If the Blueger line is going to be primarily a defensive line, the other bottom 6 line is going to have to produce. All our production can't come from the top 6.