"In front of both goalies is a mostly even collection of talent [on the blueline], which perhaps partially explains why both team’s defensive numbers were so similar. Pittsburgh has a slight edge when it comes to the top four, but that’s mitigated by the team’s bottom pair which is
anchored by the team’s largest problem, Jack Johnson, whose presence is costing the Penguins one entire win of value. Yikes.
That may seem like a harsh valuation for a player earning just shy of 20 minutes, but the simple act of receiving minutes does not in any way say anything about the actual quality of play provided in those minutes.
In Johnson’s case, it’s a reverse Midas situation where everything he touches sours immediately.
Remember those sketchy Crosby numbers I mentioned above?
In 203 minutes together, Crosby has a 39 percent expected goals rate when Johnson is on the ice and is outscored by a two-to-one margin. When he’s off, his numbers jump back up to his normal 57 percent range. It’s a similar story with Kris Letang. WOWY’s are generally flawed because they ignore the other eight skaters on the ice, but in these extreme cases, the message seems to be pretty clear toward the type of negative effect Johnson can have.
He unsurprisingly had the team’s worst 5-on-5 numbers and simply taking him out of the lineup would provide a massive boost to the team, adding three percentage points of series win probability. For those counting at home, that’s over six percentage points the Penguins are leaving on the table by keeping Johnson and Murray in the starting lineup in favour of better options.
Those hoping Johnson’s numbers will improve further down the lineup should note that in 168 minutes together with Justin Schultz, the pair were outscored 8-3 and earned a 41 percent expected goals rate."
2020 NHL qualifying round preview: Penguins vs. Canadiens
Say it louder for those in the back:
Replace JJ with Riikola and the Pens become a better team.
