Salary Cap: Pens Summer Salary Thread: We Hayes Dubas's offseason moves so far

[Gurglesons]

I'm hoping Acciari in the off-season and Eller at the deadline.

I actually like the look of a Lizotte-Hayes-Beauvillier 4th line to start the year, because both Lizotte and Beauvillier are strong forecheckers (especially Lizotte) and providing Hayes with speed on his wing should help him a lot. Once Eller gets moved closer to the deadline, bump Lizotte up to the 3C role and Ponomarev to the 4LW role.

As an aside, that's actually why I'm a bit concerned about how Lizotte does with the Penguins. Sullivan's system doesn't have centers forechecking and Lizotte's strongest attributes are his speed and willingness with forechecking. It's the same issue Acciari had while playing center last year, I don't think he can effectively use his talents while playing center in Sullivan's system.

If Eller stays I imagine the 4th line is Lizotte - Eller - Acciari.

 

[Kasperi kapanen]

Because I actually realize what a Crosby trade would look like, while you are seemingly obtuse about it. Crosby will be 37 years old, has a full NMC and a $8.7 million cap hit. He can hand-pick any location he can go to. How would that player bring back any sort of notable value?

Go look at what Kane and Giroux were traded for in the past. Crosby's not bringing back much more than that. At best, he's bringing back 2 late 1sts and that even seems wildly optimistic to me.

Iginla forced himself to go to only the Penguins and Calgary only got some no-name NCAA prospects and a 1st. Kane forced himself to only go to the Rangers and he only brought back a 2nd. Giroux forced himself to only go to the Panthers and he only brought back Tippett and a 1st. Crosby's not going to be any different, even with Crosby being better than those guys.

I hope we never trade Sid, but he’s still a top 15-20 player in the league. The same couldn’t be said about the other guys you mentioned when they were traded. Name value alone you’d have teams swarming to get him if available. Idk where all this “he’ll only go to Colorado” stuff even came from. Do we know that for sure? Then again, it would be beyond stupid to trade Crosby and would be catastrophic for this franchise. Don’t trade Sid.

 

[Gurglesons]

I hope we never trade Sid, but he’s still a top 15-20 player in the league. The same couldn’t be said about the other guys you mentioned when they were traded. Name value alone you’d have teams swarming to get him if available. Idk where all this “he’ll only go to Colorado” stuff even came from. Do we know that for sure? Then again, it would be beyond stupid to trade Crosby and would be catastrophic for this franchise. Don’t trade Sid.

No, but where else is Sid going to waive to go?

 

[Empoleon8771]

If Eller stays I imagine the 4th line is Lizotte - Eller - Acciari.

I like that 4th line a lot but it means Hayes is at 3C, which I hate.

I'm fine with taking Hayes on to get the 2nd, but I'm not expecting Hayes to be anything but bad for the Penguins. If he can be better than Jeff Carter 2.0, I'd be surprised. He might be okay in a 4C role surrounding him with a bunch of speedy wingers, but the dude can't skate anymore and offers nothing outside of pretty solid playmaking.

 

[Gurglesons]

I like that 4th line a lot but it means Hayes is at 3C, which I hate.

I'm fine with taking Hayes on to get the 2nd, but I'm not expecting Hayes to be anything but bad for the Penguins. If he can be better than Jeff Carter 2.0, I'd be surprised. He might be okay in a 4C role surrounding him with a bunch of speedy wingers, but the dude can't skate anymore and offers nothing outside of pretty solid playmaking.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1807095941427601517

If you want to pretend this team is smart. Hayes fits a similar vibe to Beauvillier and Gryz in terms of his ability to transition the puck.

That was something we lacked last year.

 

[Ryder71]

3-4 years AFTER we start rebuilding and after a couple top ten picks

Which we're still screwing around and won't be doing for 3-4 years

So better part of a decade from today

I'd say three to four years from now actually. We're accruing picks and prospects since trading Jake. We'll be a bottom ten team each of the next two or three drafts. Yager looks to be a solid piece, and several others look promising also. It's begun.

 

[Turin]

I would be very surprised if Hayes wasn't better than Carter. That's an extremely low bar to clear. I have a hard time believing any regular NHL forward wouldn't clear it tbh.

Both Brian Boyle and Jeff Carter came to Pittsburgh as older guys after having horrible public analytics and turned them around quite massively in their first years. Then eventually the age gets you - but there is precedent of a second wind of sorts with these guys.

 

[Kasperi kapanen]

No, but where else is Sid going to waive to go?

I can’t answer that sir. Either way it would be beyond stupid to trade him unless he asks out. Also, dubas is the LAST person I’d want handling that trade.

 

[Ryder71]

No it might take some time. 5 years is probably best case unless we get really lucky again and get some more generational talent.

If you have a great draft you’ll come out with two NHL players. Some might be ready in a season but most will take 3-4 years to develop. That math doesn’t add up.

Sure it does, Yager in a couple years looks to project to be a solid top six player. Pono this coming season should be a quality depth forward. We're gonna get two or three top 10 picks each of the next few drafts. That's not counting the 2hd rounders this year possibly panning out or the Ilyins, Koivunens, Murashovs and Pickerings being in the fold. If half those guys make it along with a couple good FA's that's a decent starting point.

We're also gonna likely sell off a couple of guys at the TDL to further enhance our draft capital.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I do think one saving grace with Hayes is that he is only 1 year removed from a pretty decent season with the Flyers. Even if he's not matching up with the 54 points he put up with the Flyers, the underlying numbers there in 2022-2023 were pretty decent for Hayes. If he can repeat that level, he's a legitimately solid 3C caliber player. The issue is that he was horrid in 2023-2024 and players like him usually tend to drop off dramatically in their early 30s.

It's not unheard of for him to bounce back, though. Staal had one of his worst full seasons in the NHL at age 31 in 2019-2020, where he only finished with 27 points in 68 games for a 5v5 points/60 of 1.42. He then bounced back the next year and finished with 38 points in 53 games for a 5v5 points/60 of 1.76. Hayes had decent analytics last year, so that kind of Staal type of bounce back doesn't seem impossible to me.

I wouldn't bet on it because guys like him fall off cliffs at his age regularly, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he can have a Staal type of resurgence after a terrible year in his early 30s either. I'm expecting nothing with him though, if he can just outplay Jeff Carter I'll consider that a win.

 

[Gurglesons]

I do think one saving grace with Hayes is that he is only 1 year removed from a pretty decent season with the Flyers. Even if he's not matching up with the 54 points he put up with the Flyers, the underlying numbers there in 2022-2023 were pretty decent for Hayes. If he can repeat that level, he's a legitimately solid 3C caliber player. The issue is that he was horrid in 2023-2024 and players like him usually tend to drop off dramatically in their early 30s.

It's not unheard of for him to bounce back, though. Staal had one of his worst full seasons in the NHL at age 31 in 2019-2020, where he only finished with 27 points in 68 games for a 5v5 points/60 of 1.42. He then bounced back the next year and finished with 38 points in 53 games for a 5v5 points/60 of 1.76. Hayes had decent analytics last year, so that kind of Staal type of bounce back doesn't seem impossible to me.

I wouldn't bet on it because guys like him fall off cliffs at his age regularly, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he can have a Staal type of resurgence after a terrible year in his early 30s either. I'm expecting nothing with him though, if he can just outplay Jeff Carter I'll consider that a win.

A couple things on Hayes.

Like I said, I watched some footage over the last week of him and he gets a wild amount of breakaways for his speed. Not sure what that means. Also, he points up to Jimmy every time he scores so that's a hard thing not to root for.

His most common line mates were Toropchenko and Kapanen so there could potentially be some improvement here in that regard depending on how you feel about Puustinen and Beauvillier / whoever. I don't think it'll be much better.

The largest issue with Hayes is this..

2023-24
Eller - Offensive Starts - 26.08% Acciari - Offensive Starts - 14.39%

2022-23
Carter - Offensive Starts - 27.71% Blueger - Offensive Starts - 16.14%

2021 - 22
Carter - Offensive Starts - 40% Blueger - Offensive Starts - 29.30%

Hayes unless we suddenly go back to what we did a couple years ago is going to get absolutely buried like he never has before here.

 

[BusinessGoose]

I'd say three to four years from now actually. We're accruing picks and prospects since trading Jake. We'll be a bottom ten team each of the next two or three drafts. Yager looks to be a solid piece, and several others look promising also. It's begun.

I think you need at least two 90pt players to be be taken seriously today

I doubt yager even hits that within 3 years... And who the hell else do we have that'll do that with him?

Top six potential isn't enough when you need a Mackinnon at the very least. We don't have any surefire gamebreakers.

It's true we're accruing picks. But STL 2nd rounder? You must be kidding with us.

 

[Freeptop]

I'm not sure #7 and #30 moves you up as much as you'd think it would. I think you can only move to the top-5 in that situation if the top-5 probably isn't good enough for you to justify doing it.

The last time a top 5 pick was traded on draft day was 2008. And that was moving up from #7 to #5.

The only times top 5 picks have been moved since then was because it wasn't known that the pick would be a top 5 pick at the time it was traded.
The last top 5 pick traded at all was in 2020, and that was the Sharks' lottery pick of #3 a year after they traded it to acquire Karlsson from the Senators.
(Hockey Draft Pick Transactions is a great resource for figuring out what draft picks were traded and when).

 

[Gurglesons]

I think you need at least two 90pt players to be be taken seriously today

I doubt yager even hits that within 3 years... And who the hell else do we have that'll do that with him?

Top six potential isn't enough when you need a Mackinnon at the very least. We don't have any surefire gamebreakers.

I'd be shocked if Yager was ever a 90 pt player.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

i have no idea what they’ll do with the bottom 6 jumble, especially because I don’t see Hayes or Eller as really capable of playing wing

 

[Ryder71]

I think you need at least two 90pt players to be be taken seriously today

I doubt yager even hits that within 3 years... And who the hell else do we have that'll do that with him?

Top six potential isn't enough when you need a Mackinnon at the very least. We don't have any surefire gamebreakers.

It's true we're accruing picks. But STL 2nd rounder? You must be kidding with us.

I doubt Yager ever hits 90 points, but he's an all around player so I don't expect that from him.

Also, You're misremembering the fact that we have 1st rounders as well in each draft moving forward, not just 2hd rounders. Our 1sts will be top 10 picks, maybe top 6-8 picks. It'll take some time, but as long as we hit on most of these high picks we should be able to ice a competitive team in '28/29.

 

[BusinessGoose]

I doubt Yager ever hits 90 points, but he's an all around player so I don't expect that from him.

Also, You're misremembering the fact that we have 1st rounders as well in each draft moving forward, not just 2hd rounders. Our 1sts will be top 10 picks, maybe top 6-8 picks. It'll take some time, but as long as we hit on most of these high picks we should be able to ice a competitive team in '28/29.

Like I want to share the optimism. But if we aren't picking top 3 two years in a row, I don't expect even top ten picks to contribute that fast. 6+ range you're looking at a final year in juniors, a year in ahl, then maybe nhl, and that's already 3 years gone.

Here is a status of the 1st rounders from last year, you won't see much NHL on it. Bedard was the only good one. Other top three that did NHL got like 30pts in half a season of work

2023 NHL Draft 1st-round pick signings tracker | NHL.com

Status of 32 players chosen in opening round

www.nhl.com

 

[Ryder71]

Like I want to share the optimism. But if we aren't picking top 3 two years in a row, I don't expect even top ten picks to contribute that fast. 6+ range you're looking at a final year in juniors, a year in ahl, then maybe nhl, and that's already 3 years gone.

I think we should give up and have the team move to KC. With Crosby being so old might as well fold the team by '27.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

i have no idea what they’ll do with the bottom 6 jumble, especially because I don’t see Hayes or Eller as really capable of playing wing

Best guess, using today's roster:

DOC-Sid-Rust
Bunting-Malkin-Rakell
Beauvillier-Hayes-Puustinen
Lizotte-Eller-Puljujarvi

Spare: Bemstrom

But we have 3.5M in space right now, so keep in mind Dubas is not done.

 

[BusinessGoose]

I think we should give up and have the team move to KC. With Crosby being so old might as well fold the team by '27.

Hyperbole is a solid defense in the face of facts

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Then put youth in the lineup...put youth in the lineup. Then. Put. Youth. In. The. Lineup. No, no, no, wait...what I'm saying is then - put youth in the lineup. The lineup...put youth it. No, put youth...in the lineup. Put youth in the lineup. Put it in. Put THE YOUTH INTO THE LINEUP. PUT THE YOUTH YOU HAVE IN THE LINEUP!

Stop advocating and catering the rotting corpses of guy like Carter, Hayes, Eller, Acciari, etc. PLAY THE YOUTH! YOU CAN GET YOUNGER BY PLAYING THE YOUTH. PUT THE YOUTH IN THE LINEUP.

But actually, put the youth in the lineup. No...no...you, you put the YOUTH in the LINEUP.

Sullivan really is a politician. Says the things he knows people want to hear, but when it comes time to actually following through with them, he consistently falls short.

 

[Kasperi kapanen]

I'd be shocked if Yager was ever a 90 pt player.

Don’t worry Gurgles, Gavin McKenna will lead the way for him.

 

[Gurglesons]

Don’t worry Gurgles, Gavin McKenna will lead the way for him.

I’d be shocked if the Penguins pick 1st overall in a long time.

 

[Kasperi kapanen]

I’d be shocked if the Penguins pick 1st overall in a long time.

Idk but even if we did luck into 1st overall, it’s not like there is some generational talent coming anytime soon. Maybe Alex Letang in like 2031 or something.

 

[Tom Hanks]

I'd be shocked if Yager was ever a 90 pt player.

I’d be shocked if the Penguins pick 1st overall in a long time.