Salary Cap: Pens Off Season Thread: Pre Free Agency Shenanigans!

[Pens1566]

The idea that teams regularly win cups while not spending money on goalies is fake news made up by hockey fans. Since 2009 (using 2009 because contract data from before is a bit iffy on capfriendly), here are the starting goalies of cup winners and the percentage of the cap that their deal was when it was signed:

2009: Fleury at 8.82% of the cap
2010: Niemi at 1.46% of the cap
2011: Thomas at 8.82% of the cap
2012: Quick at 3.17% of the cap
2013: Crawford at 4.49% of the cap
2014: Quick at 9.67% of the cap
2015: Crawford at 9.33% of the cap
2016: Fleury at 8.33% of the cap
2017: Murray at 1.01% of the cap
2018: Holtby at 8.54% of the cap
2019: Binnington at 0.82% of the cap
2020: Vasilevskiy at 4.79% of the cap
2021: Vasilevskiy at 11.66% of the cap
2022: Kuemper at 5.52% of the cap
2023: Hill at 2.67% of the cap

The equivalent of $7 million today is 8.38% of the cap. 7 of the last 15 cup winners were paying their starting goalie basically the equivalent of $7 million AAV today or more, and 3 of the last 15 cup winners were paying their starting goalie basically the equivalent of $8 million or more.

I wouldn't go above $8.5 million for Hellebuyck probably, but getting him for anything less than that is an easy yes in my eyes. Especially considering how much cap flexibility they have going forward between their expiring contracts and the rising cap, the Penguins should easily be able to afford Hellebuyck long-term at $8 million.

7/15 paying sub 5% of the cap kind of says that teams DO regularly win by not spending a ton on keepers.

 

[Josey Wales]

Gibson was fantastic in the WJC and a big reason why the Ducks made a WC with Randy Carlyle as their coach. And he did that at a very young age. Great goaltender.

He’s also hungry. He wants to win. I take that over a guy looking for a 9+ mil contract. Gibson knows what he has to do.

He 's Hungry to win, sooooooooo why would he want traded to the Pens? modern PDOcast about goaltending with Kevin Woodley. & if this guy is SOOOOOO great why hasn't an NHL team hired him

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

What premiere winger is available other than Debrincat, who I zero interest in?

I dunno, but I do know it'd be more fun to watch two functioning scoring lines than to throw the kitchen sink at acquiring a goalie just for another meaningless 1st round exit.

 

[Gurglesons]

He 's Hungry to win, sooooooooo why would he want traded to the Pens? modern PDOcast about goaltending with Kevin Woodley. & if this guy is SOOOOOO great why hasn't an NHL team hired him

Pens X burner? Or tribute?

 

[Empoleon8771]

7/15 paying sub 5% of the cap kind of says that teams DO regularly win by not spending a ton on keepers.

I think the logical conclusion from that data is that you can win with both expensive and cheap goalies. I was arguing against the claim of "you can't spend big money on goalies", not that you had to spend big money on goalies.

 

[Josey Wales]

Pens X burner? Or tribute?

Wrong & Wrong ! Good no answer though

 

[Peat]

Yeah but Hellebuyck won Vezinas in a really boring system that won nothing.

Winnipeg has the 5th worst defence by expected goals the year Hellebuyck won the Vezina. Even with a big pinch of skepticism about those, I don't think Hellebuyck is or was a system goalie.

Unless the deal is nothing more than Granlund and minor pieces for Gibson, I'm wildly uninterested. Gibson has been too bad for too long statistically for me to have any interest in paying any sort of notable assets for him.

Said the man believing that the statistics showing that DeSmith got a far rougher defensive ride than Jarry couldn't be right

More seriously, none of us believe stats are telling the whole story. We all know they have their weaknesses and even when they're right, they're not telling everything. I'd be nervous as hell getting him but is it really impossible to believe Gibson's stats look worse than they are due to the stats not truly tracking just how bad Anaheim are, or has more effort to give on a non-futile cause (just like Rakell) and can still be the goalie he was in the first five years of his career?

They can't reasonably fill all of the holes on the roster this year. Acquiring Hellebuyck fills arguably their biggest hole now and for the long term, assuming he'd re-sign.

Hellebuyck is not just a win-now move, it's a move that attempts to minimize how bad they are after Crosby, Malkin and Letang retire.

If they don't fill the holes, then they're not going to win now. I know it's going to be hard to do, but it's do it or fail. They have to try to fill those holes.

Not to mention given the stats from last year, team defence and finishing are bigger holes to me.


Also re the bolded - I know they've talked about it, but they need to accept Hextall just brutalised their chances of doing so and they need to rethink how they handle those years.

Not to mention that post Sid probably takes us up to Hellbuyck being 33. How many of those years is he actually going to be good in? And if you assume it'll take time to turn around, what good is to have a 37 year old goalie making 8.5m on the roster when they might be really good again?

 

[Empoleon8771]

If they don't fill the holes, then they're not going to win now. I know it's going to be hard to do, but it's do it or fail. They have to try to fill those holes.

Not to mention given the stats from last year, team defence and finishing are bigger holes to me.


Also re the bolded - I know they've talked about it, but they need to accept Hextall just brutalised their chances of doing so and they need to rethink how they handle those years.

You are never going to be able to fill all of the holes you have in a cap era, unless you get crazy lucky with unexpected prospects hitting like what happened with the Penguins.

They are going to have to pick and choose which holes to address. To me, getting a long-term solution like Hellebuyck is way better than spending extra money to bring in Bunting to play with Malkin or Soucy to play with Petry.

Not to mention that post Sid probably takes us up to Hellbuyck being 33. How many of those years is he actually going to be good in? And if you assume it'll take time to turn around, what good is to have a 37 year old goalie making 8.5m on the roster when they might be really good again?

If you sign Hellebuyck to an 8 year deal from ages 31-39, I would expect him to give 6 good or better seasons over that deal. Definitely good from 31-35 and probably good for 36 and 37. That's similar to how guys like Luongo and Fleury aged.

Also, it's worth pointing out that the cap is projected to be substantially greater in 6+ years, so it's completely fair to wonder what the cap structures of teams will even look like in 2030.

 

[TimmyD]

I’ve been on board the Gibson train since it was reported that he wanted out. However, he shouldn’t cost the 14th overall pick to get. He wants out, can limit where he goes and hasn’t had great numbers the past 3-4 years. Anaheim isn’t going to be able to get great value for him. The cheapness to acquire him is exactly why they should do it

 

[Gurglesons]

I’ve been on board the Gibson train since it was reported that he wanted out. However, he shouldn’t cost the 14th overall pick to get. He wants out, can limit where he goes and hasn’t had great numbers the past 3-4 years. Anaheim isn’t going to be able to get great value for him. The cheapness to acquire him is exactly why they should do it

Which is why if you can get him for a 16 pick drop and getting rid of Granlund you should jump at it.

 

[Josey Wales]

Which is why if you can get him for a 16 pick drop and getting rid of Granlund you should jump at it.

YEAH you can dump Granlund 14th Pick for Garbage

 

[Andy99]

I’ve been on board the Gibson train since it was reported that he wanted out. However, he shouldn’t cost the 14th overall pick to get. He wants out, can limit where he goes and hasn’t had great numbers the past 3-4 years. Anaheim isn’t going to be able to get great value for him. The cheapness to acquire him is exactly why they should do it

Given that he has like 3-4 years at $6M+ and his play hasn’t been great the last few years, Anaheim should be getting like 6th round pick for him at best…seriously, they have no reason to trade him either so if they’re looking to score by trading him, they should just keep him

 

[Gurglesons]

Winnipeg has the 5th worst defence by expected goals the year Hellebuyck won the Vezina. Even with a big pinch of skepticism about those, I don't think Hellebuyck is or was a system goalie.



Said the man believing that the statistics showing that DeSmith got a far rougher defensive ride than Jarry couldn't be right

More seriously, none of us believe stats are telling the whole story. We all know they have their weaknesses and even when they're right, they're not telling everything. I'd be nervous as hell getting him but is it really impossible to believe Gibson's stats look worse than they are due to the stats not truly tracking just how bad Anaheim are, or has more effort to give on a non-futile cause (just like Rakell) and can still be the goalie he was in the first five years of his career?



If they don't fill the holes, then they're not going to win now. I know it's going to be hard to do, but it's do it or fail. They have to try to fill those holes.

Not to mention given the stats from last year, team defence and finishing are bigger holes to me.


Also re the bolded - I know they've talked about it, but they need to accept Hextall just brutalised their chances of doing so and they need to rethink how they handle those years.

Not to mention that post Sid probably takes us up to Hellbuyck being 33. How many of those years is he actually going to be good in? And if you assume it'll take time to turn around, what good is to have a 37 year old goalie making 8.5m on the roster when they might be really good again?

It’s not about being a systems goalie. It’s about being a goaltender who excels in certain situations.

Woodley has access to clear sight analytics which help show where a goaltender is getting scored exactly on the ice.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Yeah, I'm not even sure I'd be happy with Gibson for peanuts. I know the dude played on some bad Anaheim teams but he's making nearly $6.5 million for like, what, four more years? Seems sketch.

 

[Peat]

You are never going to be able to fill all of the holes you have in a cap era, unless you get crazy lucky with unexpected prospects hitting like what happened with the Penguins.

They are going to have to pick and choose which holes to address. To me, getting a long-term solution like Hellebuyck is way better than spending extra money to bring in Bunting to play with Malkin or Soucy to play with Petry.

All your holes? No. But the major holes? Yes. Right now their third line is DOC-Poehling-Carter and their 2LW is Granlund and their 2LD is POJ. Those are some big holes. They're going to have to fill a lot of them.

I'd rather prioritise guys who can help at both ends of the ice and get the Pens back to being a team that can defend and finish rather than hoping a goalie can mask being a bottom third defensive team and that the skaters figure out being a bad finishing team two years in a row.

If you sign Hellebuyck to an 8 year deal from ages 31-39, I would expect him to give 6 good or better seasons over that deal. Definitely good from 31-35 and probably good for 36 and 37. That's similar to how guys like Luongo and Fleury aged.

Also, it's worth pointing out that the cap is projected to be substantially greater in 6+ years, so it's completely fair to wonder what the cap structures of teams will even look like in 2030.

That seems a fair projection.

It also seems absolutely useless for the Penguins in terms of competitiveness post-Sid, as it'd take a miracle for the Pens to be anything other than a bubble team in those 34 and 35 years and assuming that the team can't cheat the usual figure of 5 years for a rebuild, the years he's finally not worth it are the years to start caring.

And yeah, fair that 8.5m probably doesn't mean the same then. But it's still probably going to mean a lot.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

The issue is not that Hellebuyck is anything short of a stellar goalie, or that he would be an albatross contract, imo. It's that there's absolutely zero reason to think he'd A. want to be dealt here (assuming Winnipeg doesn't just f*** him over and send him wherever they want with no input from him) B. want to re-sign here long term, because this team is pretty much where Winnipeg's been at in terms of shot at the Cup--and he's leaving that team to go look for a better spot to chase the Cup. /shrug

 

[Pancakes]

Yeah, I'm not even sure I'd be happy with Gibson for peanuts. I know the dude played on some bad Anaheim teams but he's making nearly $6.5 million for like, what, four more years? Seems sketch.

He's too risky to go all in on like that. You'd have to have a high degree of certainty that he could turn it around here and based on his recent stretch of performance I don't see how anyone could have that certainty.

 

[TimmyD]

Which is why if you can get him for a 16 pick drop and getting rid of Granlund you should jump at it.

I wouldn’t want to make the 16 pick drop. The 14th overall pick shouldn’t be going to Anaheim in any Gibson deal. If they give up that pick to get Gibson I’d be disappointed… and again he’s honestly at the top of my list of goalies they should be trying to acquire

 

[The GM]

What does Erik Karlsson add to this team?

It would ensure that the findings of the melynk forensic investigation will now for sure never be revealed

 

[TimmyD]

Given that he has like 3-4 years at $6M+ and his play hasn’t been great the last few years, Anaheim should be getting like 6th round pick for him at best…seriously, they have no reason to trade him either so if they’re looking to score by trading him, they should just keep him

I think a 6th is way to low. I think a reasonable Gibson trade would be POJ+Granlund+3rd

 

[Empoleon8771]

All your holes? No. But the major holes? Yes. Right now their third line is DOC-Poehling-Carter and their 2LW is Granlund and their 2LD is POJ. Those are some big holes. They're going to have to fill a lot of them.

I'd rather prioritise guys who can help at both ends of the ice and get the Pens back to being a team that can defend and finish rather than hoping a goalie can mask being a bottom third defensive team and that the skaters figure out being a bad finishing team two years in a row.

Honestly POJ on the 2nd pair doesn't seem problematic enough for me to really include that as a hole. Is it not ideal? Yeah, but it's not like it's Jeff Carter on L3. I think their starting goalie is only below L3 in terms of needs for the roster.

That seems a fair projection.

It also seems absolutely useless for the Penguins in terms of competitiveness post-Sid, as it'd take a miracle for the Pens to be anything other than a bubble team in those 34 and 35 years and assuming that the team can't cheat the usual figure of 5 years for a rebuild, the years he's finally not worth it are the years to start caring.

And yeah, fair that 8.5m probably doesn't mean the same then. But it's still probably going to mean a lot.

I don't think the team plans on being awful and rebuilding post-Sid, though. I don't think they plan on bottoming out, I think they're going to try to build through free agency and trades and maintain a competitive team.

I think a 6th is way to low. I think a reasonable Gibson trade would be POJ+Granlund+3rd

This is much more reasonable for a Gibson trade IMO.

 

[Gurglesons]

I think a 6th is way to low. I think a reasonable Gibson trade would be POJ+Granlund+3rd

Anaheim has no need for a LD and if getting rid of Granlund only costs a 3rd and a shit player like POJ, I’ll be happy.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

You don't have to trade 14 to fix the goaltending. That would once again be the easy, lazy line of thinking that has sent this team into the mediocrity we now found ourselves in. Not to mention burning most of the available cap space on a guy to try to fix everything in one fell swoop.

Hextall could have traded a first for Hellebuyck, too. What was the point of waiting and waiting and waiting to bring in a new guy if we continue to make old decisions?

Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose.

Come on Dubas. Don't be a sheep.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

It's probably a situation where the team doesn't have a choice, but I'd be real wary of POJ just getting 2nd pairing role/minutes. He had some strong games earlier in the season, but as time wore on he was near Dumoulin bad for stretches. Again, the team probably doesn't have any other option, and I know younger guys have growing pains they have to play through, but I do genuinely think they need a LD for Letang or Petry, depending on where Petts settles into.

 

[Andy99]

I think a 6th is way to low. I think a reasonable Gibson trade would be POJ+Granlund+3rd

Ok, well then you’re paying something for them to take Granlund and It cost you POJ for Gibson…I honestly wouldn’t pay that even though POJ was bad at times…I think Gibson’s play has made him more of a cap dump himself…maybe an actual prospect for Gibby rather than a NHL player