Post-Game Talk: Pens/Isles Game 1: Home Ice + Good Matchup all for nothing

[Empoleon8771]

That’s cool and I’m gonna pretend I care for a sec, but if Sid or Rust had capitalized on a shot or two we’d be looking at a 4-3 win too.

Like Jarry didn’t play good, but my dude, what a total oversimplification.

Jarry literally gave up 4 goals that most college goalies could have stopped.

It's really not a simplification. If Jarry makes saves on any of the 3 easy to stop regulation goals he gave up, the Penguins win that game. The Penguins 5v5 xGA last game was something like 1.9 in game 1, and Jarry gave up 4 5v5 goals.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Jarry literally gave up 4 goals that most college goalies could have stopped.

It's really not a simplification. If Jarry makes saves on any of the 3 easy to stop regulation goals he gave up, the Penguins win that game. The Penguins all situation xGA last game was something like 1.9 in game 1.

“It’s not an oversimplification! Here’s one number that tells you everything!”

Like I get you hate Jarry, Emp, but come on. He had a bad game, but dude also does not look healthy at all, plus he did make some key saves. It just wasn’t good enough.

 

[Empoleon8771]

“It’s not an oversimplification! Here’s one number that tells you everything!”

I mean you do you, but I find it extremely odd to be defending Jarry after the performance he gave last night.

He literally had to stop 1 of the 3 bad goals he gave up in regulation, that's it. That's asking a hell of a lot less out of him than asking your team to score 4 goals in a game to make up for your goalie giving up 3 bad goals.

 

[BHD]

I'm not sure what to make of a game where they didn't play their best, were without one of their best players, and got brutal goaltending - yet managed to lose in OT. It's one of those situations where they either turn things around or mail it in. Game 2 will be very telling.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Whatever you guys can argue the small fish all you want. This was clearly all Malkin's fault.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I mean you do you, but I find it extremely odd to be defending Jarry after the performance he gave last night.

He literally had to stop 1 of the 3 bad goals he gave up in regulation, that's it. That's asking a hell of a lot less out of him than asking your team to score 4 goals in a game to make up for your goalie giving up 3 bad goals.

I’m not defending him at all, I’m just pointing out that he’s not the only reason we f***ed up last night. I mean, are you happy with the sloppy team play too?

 

[Khelandros]

Unless you picked the Pens to sweep, they were bound to lose at least 1 game. And if there was any game they were going to lose it was going to be an afternoon game. #dryisland.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Unless you picked the Pens to sweep, they were bound to lose at least 1 game. And if there was any game they were going to lose it was going to be an afternoon game. #dryisland.

I agree that the Penguins will win a couple.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I think this actually dovetails into what I was talking about above... maybe.

If Jarry is injured and he did indeed get banged up a little not long ago... I guess it would make some sense that the defense has suddenly transitioned into turtle mode. To help insulate.

Problem is they aren't very good at that.

It’s a possibility. How many times did Jarry NOT play the puck yesterday when he would normally start the breakout on a dump-in? I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s got some sort of nasty bruise or a cracked collarbone the way he’s fighting anything high and shying away from stickhandling.

Either way, the team should do a better job supporting and reading the play. Unless CDS is healthy miraculously (and with a suspected groin injury, I’m not optimistic), since all of our other options are WORSE.

I wish we could get that 2016-2017 defensive awareness in bottles for this team.

 

[Gurglesons]

Unless you picked the Pens to sweep, they were bound to lose at least 1 game. And if there was any game they were going to lose it was going to be an afternoon game. #dryisland.

I guess the issue is mentally how does this effect them as it is the same script as last time. Hopefully the upheaval of the roster helps address.

 

[SouthGeorge]

The 1st goal is perfect example of the bad team defense. So we had 2 forwards pressure as the puck was moving to the left. For some reason our F3 pressures the RD late with little to no chance of the puck going that way. If he just falls back and takes the middle of the ice. We have a backchecker on that shot. Yes, it was an outside shot with d-man in front and you need Jarry to make that save. But if the F3 falls back that shot never gets off.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

It’s a possibility. How many times did Jarry NOT play the puck yesterday when he would normally start the breakout on a dump-in? I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s got some sort of nasty bruise or a cracked collarbone the way he’s fighting anything high and shying away from stickhandling.

Either way, the team should do a better job supporting and reading the play. Unless CDS is healthy miraculously (and with a suspected groin injury, I’m not optimistic), since all of our other options are WORSE.

I wish we could get that 2016-2017 defensive awareness in bottles for this team.

SOMEONE GET CALLE CLANG ON THE HORN!

 

[Darren McCord]

I am warming up to the idea of moving Rust this summer. Dude hasn’t showed up for the last three playoffs. Also I won’t be worried about signing McCann if he ghost them again this playoffs.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I am warming up to the idea of moving Rust this summer. Dude hasn’t showed up for the last three playoffs. Also I won’t be worried about signing McCann if he ghost them again this playoffs.

If this team is gonna trot this half-dead core out again next season I'm very much of the opinion that there should be a shakeup in support/top six wings.

I mean among other things.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

You aren't serious, right? Right? I mean the (Steelers) Stillers have more Super Bowls than all teams other than the one they're tied with. They'll be fine once Ben rides off into the sunset and Aaron takes the reins after sitting out a season.

And 2/3 of them came before anyone under the age of 40 was born.

 

[cookthebooks]

get that we have to talk about something, but does seem just as easy as saying that in a relatively evenly matched series the team that gets better goaltending wins and sometimes wins handily

 

[BeatenLikeRentedMule]

I mean, you and half the board have been making worst case scenario predictions all year. None of those things happened. Ended up not only making the playoffs, but winning the division. The coach who everyone wanted fired should be in the Jack Adams conversation. The team who was supposedly hopeless on the PP finished 4th in the league, thanks to the new PP coach who everyone mocked. Jarry, who was supposedly supposed to sink us after January, went 25-9-3. In the off-season I remember everyone bitching about overpaying for Kapanen. Then he ended up being our best 5v5 player this year, miles ahead of Crosby. Should I even bother mentioning Matheson and Ceci, or is that too low hanging fruit?

Expecting us to lose every game and then being right when it happens is nothing to brag about. That's just pessimism. And it's not an admirable trait, even though this board seems to think so.

So I'll bet on you guys being wrong as usual and say the Penguins will not get swept based on a game where we outchanced/outplayed them and lost in OT.

If you feel confident I'm open to betting $10,000 on it. Pm me and we can arrange it.

Bylsma achieved more with the 2011 Pens who were missing both Crosby and Malkin. In fact, Sullivan is becoming like Bylsma with his refusal to adjust lines and poor management.

If making the playoffs is what matters, Bylsma's Pens never missed the playoffs and didn't ever get swept in Rd. 1.

I would even consider 2013 a success given it was a deep run (which ended in disappointing fashion), a much better run than the last three post-seasons.

There was still hope back then cause the core was young.

I get what you're saying though cause the next coach could be another Mike Johnston.

I'm not betting you 10K though. Sports betting just isn't my thing.

One thing about the Pens I learned after 1993, nothing is a guarantee with this team (or this sport), not even failure.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

get that we have to talk about something, but does seem just as easy as saying that in a relatively evenly matched series the team that gets better goaltending wins and sometimes wins handily

Yeah. Though I think you could parlay that into ANY edge that one given team can actively leverage game to game against the other. Be it depth, offense from the back end etc. But it does usually seem to come down to goaltending. And in the playoffs, at least when games are tight... coaching.

...

 

[SEALBound]

I'm not sure what to make of a game where they didn't play their best, were without one of their best players, and got brutal goaltending - yet managed to lose in OT. It's one of those situations where they either turn things around or mail it in. Game 2 will be very telling.

Normally, "we" love to use single performances to paint broad strokes about performance. This game is clearly a low point in some areas but I think there are good takeaways too.

1. The loss is about 90% on Jarry. The other 10% can be put on our lackluster 3rd and failure to convert on PPs.
2. Jarry let in 3 very saveable shots. If he improves and stops those shot (or most of them) in the next games and our overall performance remains consistent with what we saw, we will win.
3. We were very close on a lot of shots. Not many times Sid gets a deflection like that and misses on the PP like that for example. Some of those will eventually go.
4. 2nd line didn't look as activated as they once were and I expect that to improve.
5. Outside of some bursts from Barzal and Eberle, I didn't think they did much overall against us that we can't match. With a good goalie performance, that's a 3-0 win. Average, it's a 3-1, 3-2 win. The only way we lose that game is if we don't get the saves from Jarry on par with average performance. We didn't. We lost.

Do I think Jarry is better than what he showed, yes. Even one step forward or one save better wins us that game. While it sucks to lose one at home where we are so good, I do expect us to get better. We've been down 1-0 is plenty of series before. This is still winnable assuming Jarry does not get worse.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I would even consider 2013 a success given it was a deep run (which ended in disappointing fashion), a much better run than the last three post-seasons.

I don't disagree with what you're saying in general, but I also think it's worth pointing out that the 2013 Penguins had a super easy first and second round opponents.

I don't recall many Penguins matchups that were as easy for them as 2013 NYI and Ottawa were, outside of the Habs last year. Even without looking at their flaws on paper (Nabokov being ass and the Senators not being able to score), the Sens and Islanders were both on pace for only around 95 points.

 

[Gurglesons]

Normally, "we" love to use single performances to paint broad strokes about performance. This game is clearly a low point in some areas but I think there are good takeaways too.

1. The loss is about 90% on Jarry. The other 10% can be put on our lackluster 3rd and failure to convert on PPs.
2. Jarry let in 3 very saveable shots. If he improves and stops those shot (or most of them) in the next games and our overall performance remains consistent with what we saw, we will win.
3. We were very close on a lot of shots. Not many times Sid gets a deflection like that and misses on the PP like that for example. Some of those will eventually go.
4. 2nd line didn't look as activated as they once were and I expect that to improve.
5. Outside of some bursts from Barzal and Eberle, I didn't think they did much overall against us that we can't match. With a good goalie performance, that's a 3-0 win. Average, it's a 3-1, 3-2 win. The only way we lose that game is if we don't get the saves from Jarry on par with average performance. We didn't. We lost.

Do I think Jarry is better than what he showed, yes. Even one step forward or one save better wins us that game. While it sucks to lose one at home where we are so good, I do expect us to get better. We've been down 1-0 is plenty of series before. This is still winnable assuming Jarry does not get worse.

I'd argue we did a fantastic job at neutralizing Barzal and Eberle. The issue is it allowed Pageau to run wild on us.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I'd argue we did a fantastic job at neutralizing Barzal and Eberle. The issue is it allowed Pageau to run wild on us.

Beauvillier was really good, too.

Also while I would agree that the Pens were really close on a few chances that didn't go in... well... so were the Isles.

 

[Lemieuxfan]

Jarry literally gave up 4 goals that most college goalies could have stopped.

It's really not a simplification. If Jarry makes saves on any of the 3 easy to stop regulation goals he gave up, the Penguins win that game. The Penguins 5v5 xGA last game was something like 1.9 in game 1, and Jarry gave up 4 5v5 goals.

How many expected Goals did the Pens have?

 

[Andy99]

From Mark Madden...says shades of 2019 in loss...


“The game looked like an extension of the Islanders’ series sweep in 2019. That’s the most disturbing takeaway. The Islanders used smart neutral-zone play to manufacture the occasional odd-man break or breakaway, too often outskating the Penguins.
The Penguins didn’t shoot often enough or quickly enough. Sidney Crosby was brilliant, but he didn’t convert a few clear opportunities, got robbed once and passed up a couple of shots. Zach Aston-Reese badly overcomplicated a nailed-on scoring chance. Evgeni Malkin’s absence meant the Islanders could pay attention to Carter’s line, which had a quiet afternoon.
Beyond Kris Letang, the Penguins’ defense was subpar. Mike Matheson handled the puck like he was beating a snake to death with a tree branch and gave Jarry a run for his money when it came to being the overtime goat. Even the reliable Brian Dumoulin struggled.”

 

[Empoleon8771]

How many expected Goals did the Pens have?

2.59, which means that Sorokin giving up either 2 or 3 goals was reasonable out of an average performance on the caliber of shots the Penguins had.