Salary Cap: Pens '24-'25 Salary Thread: The Crosbicles Volume XIX

[Empoleon8771]

I'd have 2 thoughts there:

1. I agree with Jesse's take that Dubas surrounds himself with analytics people but doesn't take their word as gospel. That said, I'd buy he is significantly more pro-analytics than Sullivan. I'd easily bet that Sullivan is the one driving the idea that Nieto should stay in the lineup based on his NA grinder/PKer bias.
2. I don't want Dubas making decisions based on undeveloped, online stats like RAPM and GAR. I'd dislike it if a baseball GM made his decisions based solely on baseball WAR, and the hockey analytics stats are miles behind the baseball analytics stats.

Analytics are a tool that need to be used when evaluating players. They're not the sole piece to be used to judge players like what things like RAPM and GAR are showing.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Player evaluation at the pro level has been an issue for a while on this team so I am a little reluctant to put it all at the feet of Kyle Dubas.

 

[Ryder71]

Oh man…lol

Advance stats should be a small portion of the formula, not the be all end all. Also, you can have several metrics tell you entirely different and contradictory things.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Pens are carrying 14 forwards right now.

If anything, they could be looking to move out Puljujarvi to make space for a defenseman acquisition considering Letang, Pettersson, and Pickering all hurt.

Petts should be back this week.

This was my assumption, that a defenseman, - most likely Pettersson - is coming back and we needed to waive someone to make room on the roster to pull someone from IR. We already made the defenseman acquisition in POJ and have an extra player now, so someone else has to be moved out.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Player evaluation at the pro level has been an issue for a while on this team so I am a little reluctant to put it all at the feet of Kyle Dubas.

I think player evaluation in pro hockey is still in a state of flux. There has been a wave of analytics, but we're still figuring out which data sets are actually valuable. I'm a big fan of data, but it needs to be used properly, and there is a horrible misconception that a single stat or two can tell you everything you need to know about a player.

As much as I like JFresh's player cards or the work of some others, they're not infallible. Context matters a ton in sports and that's something that's really hard to quantify across data points.

The best player evaluators take a wide range of viewpoints and combine it to create as complete of an analysis as possible. No one is succeeding in sports just by being a data geek or just by being old school. The best meld the two.

This was my assumption, that a defenseman, - most likely Pettersson - is coming back and we needed to waive someone to make room on the roster to pull someone from IR. We already made the defenseman acquisition in POJ and have an extra player now, so someone else has to be moved out.

Correct. The Pens have 14 healthy forwards with Puljujarvi and only six healthy defensemen with Letang, Pickering, and Pettersson on the shelf. Pickering and Pettersson are on IR. With a full man roster, someone has to go for Pettersson, and it was going to be a forward. Puljujarvi isn't playing and could actually help WBS while getting meaningful games.

There's a risk of losing him on waivers, but that's the way things go.

 

[IcedCapp]

I'd have 2 thoughts there:

1. I agree with Jesse's take that Dubas surrounds himself with analytics people but doesn't take their word as gospel. That said, I'd buy he is significantly more pro-analytics than Sullivan. I'd easily bet that Sullivan is the one driving the idea that Nieto should stay in the lineup based on his NA grinder/PKer bias.
2. I don't want Dubas making decisions based on undeveloped, online stats like RAPM and GAR. I'd dislike it if a baseball GM made his decisions based solely on baseball WAR, and the hockey analytics stats are miles behind the baseball analytics stats.

Analytics are a tool that need to be used when evaluating players. They're not the sole piece to be used to judge players like what things like RAPM and GAR are showing.

i think that most teams that have an analytics department tend to use their own metrics. If Dubas is hiring guys to look up other companies’ metrics and explain them to him, well, I’d be really offended. And I’d shake my head disapprovingly.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

i think that most teams that have an analytics department tend to use their own metrics. If Dubas is hiring guys to look up other companies’ metrics and explain them to him, well, I’d be really offended. And I’d shake my head disapprovingly.

Yeah, he doesn't. He's built an entire hockey research and development department, led by Jonathan Erlichman, who he hired after Ehrlichman spent over a decade with the analytics-driven Tampa Bay Rays in MLB.

Again, I think a lot of Dubas' roster moves are open to criticism, but he's clearly spent a lot of time building out a much more robust front office than what Hextall had and especially compared to what Rutherford had in the final days of his tenure. By the end of JR's time, it was essentially him and a few longtime scouts.

 

[IcedCapp]

Yeah, he doesn't. He's built an entire hockey research and development department, led by Jonathan Erlichman, who he hired after Ehrlichman spent over a decade with the analytics-driven Tampa Bay Rays in MLB.

Again, I think a lot of Dubas' roster moves are open to criticism, but he's clearly spent a lot of time building out a much more robust front office than what Hextall had and especially compared to what Rutherford had in the final days of his tenure. By the end of JR's time, it was essentially him and a few longtime scouts.

Well, this fits my narrative, since I’m of the belief that Dubas isn’t actually allowed to do “anything he wants,” as GM, for at least 3 more years. I think the foundation is being laid for what comes next, but he’s been told he has to work with/around the core. (I know the majority of posters here think that’s copium, I’ll live with the accusations)

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Yeah, he doesn't. He's built an entire hockey research and development department, led by Jonathan Erlichman, who he hired after Ehrlichman spent over a decade with the analytics-driven Tampa Bay Rays in MLB.

Again, I think a lot of Dubas' roster moves are open to criticism, but he's clearly spent a lot of time building out a much more robust front office than what Hextall had and especially compared to what Rutherford had in the final days of his tenure. By the end of JR's time, it was essentially him and a few longtime scouts.

Yeah. Which is one reason I think this team's player evaluation (current roster and trade/sign targets) has been kinda poopy for a while. JR basically just listened to JR and maybe Sullivan here and there. Everyone else was gone. I don't think it's a huge coincidence that his ability to horse swap and build a solid roster waned as his tenure went along. Hextall was just a dingus surrounded by more dinguses and some amorphous plan that he had in his head. Though IMO he still has done a better job of building a roster than Dubas has... sad as that is. Kyle is an incomplete. But I at least give him full marks for filling the FO back out to appropriate levels and making big strides in building up the team's farm systems. And he seems good at the draft.

See... I didn't mention Mike Sullivan ONCE in that post and I said nice things about Kyle!

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Well, this fits my narrative, since I’m of the belief that Dubas isn’t actually allowed to do “anything he wants,” as GM, for at least 3 more years. I think the foundation is being laid for what comes next, but he’s been told he has to work with/around the core. (I know the majority of posters here think that’s copium, I’ll live with the accusations)

I agree completely. I don't know if it was an outright mandate from FSG, but it follows their recent history in other sports.

They don't believe in lengthy, drawn out, tear it all down rebuilds. It's much more precise. They're doing the same thing in Boston, which has pissed fans off, but is probably setting the Red Sox up better in the long-run. They've made some controversial trades, and opted not to sign a couple of high profile free agents, but have focused on development of younger players and acquiring younger players, along with a few low-risk, high-reward reclamation projects.

Liverpool had a chance for a huge reset this offseason following the retirement of Jurgen Klopp. Instead, they brought in a manager with a similar mindset, tinkered a bit, and now are top in the Premier League and a favorite in Europe. They have some big decisions to make with some aging stars, but it sounds like most will be back after FSG waited to see how they would perform to start this year.

It's not sexy and we'll see if it actually works, but there's a clear approach.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Yeah. Which is one reason I think this team's player evaluation (current roster and trade/sign targets) has been kinda poopy for a while. JR basically just listened to JR and maybe Sullivan here and there. Everyone else was gone. I don't think it's a huge coincidence that his ability to horse swap and build a solid roster waned as his tenure went along. Hextall was just a dingus surrounded by more dinguses and some amorphous plan that he had in his head. Though IMO he still has done a better job of building a roster than Dubas has... sad as that is. Kyle is an incomplete. But I at least give him full marks for filling the FO back out to appropriate levels and making big strides in building up the team's farm systems. And he seems good at the draft.

See... I didn't mention Mike Sullivan ONCE in that post and I said nice things about Kyle!

Um....see bold and underlined!

In all seriousness, I think Hextall was still trying to win, and that's where his roster build failed. I don't think Dubas was trying to build a cup contender for this year. Maybe his first summer with the Karlsson trade, but not this year, that's for sure.

The best way I can describe Dubas' approach is that while some people want to bulldoze the lot and start fresh, Dubas is trying to live in the house while doing extensive remodeling to it. There are pros and cons to both.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Um....see bold and underlined!

In all seriousness, I think Hextall was still trying to win, and that's where his roster build failed. I don't think Dubas was trying to build a cup contender for this year. Maybe his first summer with the Karlsson trade, but not this year, that's for sure.

The best way I can describe Dubas' approach is that while some people want to bulldoze the lot and start fresh, Dubas is trying to live in the house while doing extensive remodeling to it. There are pros and cons to both.

Damnit. Just can't help myself, I guess lol

I mean that's fair. I just don't think a half-in half-out approach is smart or effective. If he can thread that needle then hats off to him, I guess.

I know what I'd personally have preferred to ALL of this but that's hardly relevant. And perhaps even stupid, besides.

 

[Pancakes]

If you want to see them make the playoffs then don't complain about Sullivan. That wouldn't make sense. You picked your lane, stick to it.

That doesn't make sense. I can root for the Penguins to do well while still disagreeing with how they're coached or managed.

And like I said I don't think their results have any bearing on Sullivan's status regardless. FSG and Dubas have made it clear they're committed to keeping Sullivan around as long as he wants to.

 

[Ryder71]

That doesn't make sense. I can root for the Penguins to do well while still disagreeing with how they're coached or managed.

And like I said I don't think their results have any bearing on Sullivan's status regardless. FSG and Dubas have made it clear they're committed to keeping Sullivan around as long as he wants to.

How their managed is fine, how their coached is a different story. Your methodology doesn't make sense. You're punching yourself with one hand and massaging it with the other.

So, the team being resurrected from a 7-12-4 start and subsequently making the playoffs doesn't help Sullivans cause? As opposed to him missing the playoffs for a third straight year? When playoff revenue dries up so will their patience! Maybe not this season, but sooner or later it will. And to suggest that Sully can lead a team to four or five non playoff years in a row and keep his job, now that doesn't make sense. Also, why would he wanna stay here? Plenty of teams would want him. Either way he'd go somewhere else.

Again, if this team makes the playoffs it just gives Sully a longer tenure here. If the team does well it reflects positively on the coach.

Be very very careful what you wish for! You can't have it both ways, pick a lane!

 

[Pancakes]

How their managed is fine, how their coached is a different story. Your methodology doesn't make sense. You're punching yourself with one hand and massaging it with the other.

So, the team being resurrected from a 7-12-4 start and subsequently making the playoffs doesn't help Sullivans cause? As opposed to him missing the playoffs for a third straight year? When playoff revenue dries up so will their patience! Maybe not this season, but sooner or later it will.

No it does not make a difference. Ticket sales have already suffered the past few seasons and Sullivan is still here.

It would take him losing like ten in a row for them to consider firing him. Even then I wouldn't be confident they would.

 

[Ryder71]

No it does not make a difference. Ticket sales have already suffered the past few seasons and Sullivan is still here.

It would take him losing like ten in a row for them to consider firing him. Even then I wouldn't be confident they would.

Well, they won't be losing 10 in a row if they make the playoffs so there you go.

And even if he isn't fired this year or next, if he has success it wouldn't surprise me if he's a Jack Adams finalist, is revered like Tomlin, is viewed by the league and ownership as an institution here, and even gets an extension. And our draft position suffers.

Regardless, them winning now helps in no way possible.

 

[Turin]

So Alvin was asked about trading Elias Pettersson and he basically said f*** that guy can't wait to get him out.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

So Alvin was asked about trading Elias Pettersson and he basically said f*** that guy can't wait to get him out.

Which almost certainly means he should be the guy kept and JT Miller moved.

 

[Ulf5]

So Alvin was asked about trading Elias Pettersson and he basically said f*** that guy can't wait to get him out.

What I personally found even funnier was his direct quote. Especially after Nucks' fans adamantly opining during last season's deadline that Allvin was in fact in charge.
Allvin's direct response to the question of would he consider trading EP?

Q&A: Canucks GM Patrik Allvin expects more from top players in 2025

In 2024, the Canucks have given their fans much to be thankful for — but, they've also failed many nights to play to their standard. Iain MacIntyre sits down with GM Patrik Allvin to discuss why the team has struggled with consistency and reflect on the season thus far.

www.sportsnet.ca

Allvin (smiling): Well, you know Jim's history.

 

[eXile3]

We’re sitting outside the playoffs and our prospect pool is still bottom 1/3 of the league. The current FO has earned every right to be criticized for every move.

 

[ChaosAgent]

No it does not make a difference. Ticket sales have already suffered the past few seasons and Sullivan is still here.

It would take him losing like ten in a row for them to consider firing him. Even then I wouldn't be confident they would.

I think if he was caught on tape criticizing Dunkin coffee or calling Matt Damon overrated, FSG would consider his termination.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I think if he was caught on tape criticizing Dunkin coffee or calling Matt Damon overrated, FSG would consider his termination.

"You know sometimes I think maybe Tom Brady wasn't quite as great as everyone made him out to be"

"...pack your shit, Mike"

Also I never got the Dunkin coffee appeal. Unless I missed something and people now LIKE weak, burned up, depressing bean-water.

 

[Come on]

We’re sitting outside the playoffs and our prospect pool is still bottom 1/3 of the league. The current FO has earned every right to be criticized for every move.

You need assets to get assets. Our assets have no movement clauses. Not sure what you don't understand about the situation.

 

[Empoleon8771]

We’re sitting outside the playoffs and our prospect pool is still bottom 1/3 of the league. The current FO has earned every right to be criticized for every move.

You don't fix a terrible prospect pool in 2 years, though.

Dubas' own moves should be criticized based on the moves alone. Things like "they don't have a good prospect pool" isn't legitimate when Dubas has only been the GM for a year and a half. The rebuild is going to take far longer than a year and a half.

 

[Ryder71]

We’re sitting outside the playoffs and our prospect pool is still bottom 1/3 of the league. The current FO has earned every right to be criticized for every move.

That's what happens when you sell off 1st rounders year in and year out for over a decade. Restocking takes time. Doesn't help matters when your best players are closer to 40 than 30. No, this scenario was created long before Kyle arrived. He's not above blame, but the vast majority of this mess is on the hands of others.