Salary Cap: Pens '23-'24 Salary Cap Thread: "Mandrake, do you recall what Clemenceau once said about hockey"

[Ulf5]

Poulin had some extenuating circumstances.

As did Maatta and he still ended up a top 4 defenseman on 2 Stanley Cup teams and is still an NHL regular today.

Hoglander seems like another Kapanen to me

Two things make we worry about Hoglander.
1- only 39 assists in like 200 games. Is he another Sutter only at wing?
2- don't think he can sustain the 20.9% shooting percentage he's at this season. His career average even including this year is only 11.9%.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Please Jimmy for the love of God, don't abandon your gunslinger mentality now. Come and get your man.
I wouldn't mind Hoglander as long as he's like the 3rd piece in a deal. Reading Canucks forums, he has a motor that doesn't quit. But the return would have to include a near, guaranteed sure thing. Someone like a Lekkerimaki and a first too.
While a lower end first it could be added to ours to move up.

I think the addition of a 1st is to lessen the blow of losing this year's 1st via the Karlsson deal, or to use in a trade for more immediate help if the team wants to keep being dense and pretending the "now" matters anymore.

Anything of similar value to a prospect like Lekkerimaki, a 1st, and a young roster player akin to Hoglander is a deal Dubas needs to take imo. If he retains 50% on Jake, I think he could have a few deals like that to choose from. It's just a matter of the team growing the spine to deal Jake, and then a huge amount of luck in the 1st and prospect working out.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Also lol the main boards are funny, Canucks fans are on some weird stuff there. Apparently Reilly Smith wouldn't be a 2nd line player on any contender, despite the fact that he was a 2nd line player on the team that literally won the Stanley Cup last year.

Not talking hockey on here for like 3 months made me forget how crap the main boards are.

Smith was on the 3rd line during the playoffs.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Smith was on the 3rd line during the playoffs.

He was 6th in TOI among their forwards in both the regular season and playoffs.

 

[pistolpete11]

Yeah, I think this is valid. I just think "another Kapanen" is pretty much the realistic upside you'll be at with a late 1st. The most realistic outcome is that you get even less than that.

I'd rather have 20-year-old Kapanen coming into the league 4 years from now than 23-year-old Kapanen now.

I don't think another Kapanen moves the needle at all for this team. Best case scenario is he looks half way decent here and they trade him in a few years.

 

[Ugene Magic]

He was 6th in TOI among their forwards in both the regular season and playoffs.

Stone was also on the 3rd line. Their position doesn't mean they don't do special teams.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'd rather have 20-year-old Kapanen coming into the league 4 years from now than 23-year-old Kapanen now.

I don't think another Kapanen moves the needle at all for this team. Best case scenario is he looks half way decent here and they trade him in a few years.

That still seems like that would be better than just getting a 1st, though. If Hoglander is decent with Crosby, you can likely flip him for a 1st in the future.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Stone was also on the 3rd line. Their position doesn't mean they don't do special teams.

Idk if your 3rd line has Smith and Stone on it, that just tells me it's not really a "3rd line".

That's like saying Kessel was a 3rd liner for the Penguins on their 2016 team because they ran with HBK as their 3rd line.

 

[pistolpete11]

That still seems like that would be better than just getting a 1st, though. If Hoglander is decent with Crosby, you can likely flip him for a 1st in the future.

If that's best case scenario, then just take the 1st now like I said Then you don't have to worry about him nosediving like most of the wingers they have brought in lately.

The only reason IMO to take back an NHL player is if a) you think they are on the verge of breaking out b) you need to make the cap work or c) you're planning on resigning Jake in FA and plan to use them as a depth piece to try and compete next year.

c) is the only possibility in my eyes with Hoglander. And as much as I have been pumping the idea of trading and then signing Jake, it's probably not going to happen.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If that's best case scenario, then just take the 1st now like I said Then you don't have to worry about him nosediving like most of the wingers they have brought in lately.

The only reason IMO to take back an NHL player is if a) you think they are on the verge of breaking out b) you need to make the cap work or c) you're planning on resigning Jake in FA and plan to use them as a depth piece to try and compete next year.

c) is the only possibility in my eyes with Hoglander. And as much as I have been pumping the idea of trading and then signing Jake, it's probably not going to happen.

The problem is that the 1st is next year and is likely going to be late. If it was a 2024 1st, I'd agree with you more. But you'd have to wait another year to use the 1st, and then have to wait like 4 years for that 1st to even develop into something (if that even happens). I'd rather have Hoglander for the next 2-3 years and gamble on him having more value than just a 1st than taking a kinda crappy 1st right now.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I don't think the 1st rounder they'll be getting for Jake really has much value at all tbh. It's a scratch off ticket. We're talking about a pick that's probably gonna be 25th overall or worse, and while you can definitely strike gold in that range, it's more or less valuable from a quantity standpoint versus quality.

 

[pistolpete11]

That still seems like that would be better than just getting a 1st, though. If Hoglander is decent with Crosby, you can likely flip him for a 1st in the future.

Would you trade a 1st for Kapanen right now?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Would you trade a 1st for Kapanen right now?

He could go the Kapanen route, sure. He could also go the Jason Zucker route, who exploded to a 64 point season at age 26 and was traded for a 1st and a good prospect at age 28.

 

[pistolpete11]

The problem is that the 1st is next year and is likely going to be late. If it was a 2024 1st, I'd agree with you more. But you'd have to wait another year to use the 1st, and then have to wait like 4 years for that 1st to even develop into something (if that even happens). I'd rather have Hoglander for the next 2-3 years and gamble on him having more value than just a 1st than taking a kinda crappy 1st right now.

Hoglander would have to exceed everybody's expectations to ever return more than a late 1st. And again, that's best case scenario.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Kap has 4 goals in 50 games this season and is almost 28 years old. I don't think it's correct to pretend Hoglander and Kap are similar players and/or assets.

I say this as someone who isn't overly fond of Hoglander fwiw.

 

[pistolpete11]

He could go the Kapanen route, sure. He could also go the Jason Zucker route, who exploded to a 64 point season at age 26 and was traded for a 1st and a good prospect at age 28.

I'm not banking on Hoglander working out and JR still being around to trade for him back.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Hoglander would have to exceed everybody's expectations to ever return more than a late 1st. And again, that's best case scenario.

I really don't understand where you're coming from regarding Hoglander. Zucker had an incredibly similar 23 year old season to Hoglander, where Zucker had 21 goals and 26 points in 51 games. Hoglander could absolutely progress similarly to Zucker, who pulled off a 1st rounder at 28.

I'm not banking on Hoglander working out and JR still being around to trade for him back.

Jim Rutherford making the trades isn't why Zucker brought back a 1st. He brought back a 1st because he was a good player.

 

[pistolpete11]

Kap has 4 goals in 50 games this season and is almost 28 years old. I don't think it's correct to pretend Hoglander and Kap are similar players and/or assets.

I say this as someone who isn't overly fond of Hoglander fwiw.

What were Kap's stats when he was 23?

He's a small, semi-talented winger who doesn't move the needle for this team at all who's shooting over 20% this year.

I really don't understand where you're coming from regarding Hoglander. Zucker had an incredibly similar 23 year old season to Hoglander, where Zucker had 21 goals and 26 points in 51 games. Hoglander could absolutely progress similarly to Zucker, who pulled off a 1st rounder at 28.



Jim Rutherford making the trades isn't why Zucker brought back a 1st. He brought back a 1st because he was a good player.

You're doing the Family Guy mystery box thing now.

Yeah, we could have a 1st now, but what's in the box? It could be anything! It could even be a 1st!

If you think Hoglander is primed to break out. Fine. Agree to disagree.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You're doing the Family Guy mystery box thing now.

Yeah, we could have a 1st now, but what's in the box? It could be anything! It could even be a 1st!

If you think Hoglander is primed to break out. Fine. Agree to disagree.

You're also getting a good player for the next few years and then will be able to flip him for a 1st (in this example).

Idk, from everything I've read about Hoglander, it seems like comparing him to Zucker is really fair. Who knows how he progresses, but it's entirely feasible that they can get a good 3 years out of him and then flip him for more than a 1st.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

What were Kap's stats when he was 23?

He's a small, semi-talented winger who doesn't move the needle for this team at all.

You asked if trading a 1st for Kapanen right now was worth. I think you need to readjust your expectations when it comes to the return of a ~30 year old UFA like Jake tbh. The emphasis is on the prospect and the pick imo, not Hoglander. If the team can somehow manage a guy like Lekkerimaki and two 1st rounders, sure, absolutely go for it. I just don't think that's ever gonna happen.

And yeah, as much as I can't f***ing stand Kap as a player, I think drafting a guy who ends up being a 35pt player over 425ish NHL games is a win whenever you pick in the 25-30 range. Of course you want to hit a Pastrnak with that pick, but walking away with an NHL caliber guy is a win 99 times out of 100 with a pick like the Pens are gonna get in any Jake deal.

 

[pistolpete11]

You're also getting a good player for the next few years and then will be able to flip him for a 1st (in this example).

Idk, from everything I've read about Hoglander, it seems like comparing him to Zucker is really fair. Who knows how he progresses, but it's entirely feasible that they can get a good 3 years out of him and then flip him for more than a 1st.

Might. Might return a 1st.

I mean, 3 posts ago you agreed comparing him to Kapanen was fair. Now he's pre-breakout Zucker (which is clearly a 1-2 year outlier compared to the rest of his career).

And getting a good player for the next few years without re-signing Jake means nothing to me.

You asked if trading a 1st for Kapanen right now was worth. I think you need to readjust your expectations when it comes to the return of a ~30 year old UFA like Jake tbh. The emphasis is on the prospect and the pick imo, not Hoglander. If the team can somehow manage a guy like Lekkerimaki and two 1st rounders, sure, absolutely go for it. I just don't think that's ever gonna happen.

And yeah, as much as I can't f***ing stand Kap as a player, I think drafting a guy who ends up being a 35pt player over 425ish NHL games is a win whenever you pick in the 25-30 range. Of course you want to hit a Pastrnak with that pick, but walking away with an NHL caliber guy is a win 99 times out of 100 with a pick like the Pens are gonna get in any Jake deal.

The proposed trade that started all of this was Lekkerimaki and Hoglander.

I said I'd rather have a 1st than Hoglander.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Might. Might return a 1st.

I mean, 3 posts ago you agreed comparing him to Kapanen was fair. Now he's pre-breakout Zucker (which is clearly a 1-2 year outlier compared to the rest of his career).

And getting a good player for the next few years without re-signing Jake means nothing to me.


The proposed trade that started all of this was Lekkerimaki and Hoglander.

I said I'd rather have a 1st than Hoglander.

Fair. I'd rather have Lekkerimaki, a 1st, and Hoglander. And I think Dubas can probably squeeze JR for that if he really wants to.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Might. Might return a 1st.

I mean, 3 posts ago you agreed comparing him to Kapanen was fair. Now he's pre-breakout Zucker (which is clearly a 1-2 year outlier compared to the rest of his career).

And getting a good player for the next few years without re-signing Jake means nothing to me.

Because a 23 year old Kapanen can both go the ways of 27 year old Kapanen or 27 year old Zucker?

Plenty of players like Kapanen flame out as they hit their late 20s because they can't keep up their athleticism. Other players like Kapanen take another step forward and find a niche/skillset that makes them last a long time and make a ton of money in the NHL. Both are entirely reasonable paths for a guy in Hoglander's situation.

 

[pistolpete11]

Because a 23 year old Kapanen can both go the ways of 27 year old Kapanen or 27 year old Zucker?

Plenty of players like Kapanen flame out as they hit their late 20s because they can't keep up their athleticism. Other players like Kapanen take another step forward and find a niche/skillset that makes them last a long time and make a ton of money in the NHL. Both are entirely reasonable paths for a guy in Hoglander's situation.

And once again, that's best case scenario. Or you could just take the 1st now.

Family Guy mystery box.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Hopefully we can finally be on the other side of JRs "fair" trades. Dude owes us for absolutely blowing his wad on Brassard, Zucker, Kapanen etc