Salary Cap: Pens 2024 Summer Thread: "Thus, knocking us out of these superior numbers when we emerge! Mr. President, we must not allow a non-playoff bound gap!"

[Rudy Russo]

I'd personally put Rakell on the first line with Crosby and Rust.

Those three together are really good, and Rakell always plays his best hockey with Crosby. He did fine with Bunting and Malkin, but I think he'd do a lot better on Crosby's line.

Move DOC to the third line and go after a winger (Reinhart) in free agency to play with Bunting and Geno.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Call it emotional, but it’s also a fact that Jarry plays worse as the games get more important.

This, to me, is my biggest issue with Jarry. His stats may be "average", but his ability to come up big in important situations is near bottom of the league.

He's the type of goalie who'll pitch 3 straight shutouts on the West coast swing versus LA, San Jose and Anaheim, but then shit the bed completely when we face a divisional opponent we can't afford to lose to.

 

[eXile3]

So Sully is positive. Jarry thinks he had a good season. Carter gets celebrated like he didn’t just spend two years milking a pay check. Good to know everyone is okay with not making the playoffs in a league where half the teams do.

 

[SEALBound]

I'm not saying this to defend Jarry, but it's fascinating to me that people on here argue that this team is both awful defensively while Jarry is also a terrible goalie, and then also argue that goalies with worse or equal stats are better than Jarry. There's just no logical consistency there beyond saying "everything about this team sucks".

I guess it's not just Penguins fans here, a lot of NHL fans in general have really over the top criticism of Jarry that doesn't make sense statistically. If the Penguins sucked defensively like most people say and Jarry was as bad as most fans say, he wouldn't be putting up league average numbers or better. If you have a bad goalie on a team who's bad defensively, wouldn't you expect that goalie to put up horrendous numbers?

Someone will have to go find the chart but someone posted on twitter a breakdown of sv% for Jarry based on danger. His high-danger sv% was near bottom of the league. His moderate danger sv% was only okay. Low danger was good.

He can save all of the low danger chances he wants but when he lets up 2-3 shots from the slot that are going to happen every game, it gets tough to defend him. He co-led the league in shutouts too with 6 so I mean, there were 100% some games (at least 6) where he was absolutely stellar. That said, I would hate to calculate his GAA and sv% if you took those 6 SOs away.

Here's where I'm at with Jarry - it's not the end of the world if we keep him but based on the performances of other goalies, we can probably get "good enough goaltending" that doesn't cost us $5.75mil. I think you can get that with Neds-Blomqvist.

 

[3074326]

I'm not saying this to defend Jarry, but it's fascinating to me that people on here argue that this team is both awful defensively while Jarry is also a terrible goalie, and then also argue that goalies with worse or equal stats are better than Jarry. There's just no logical consistency there beyond saying "everything about this team sucks".

HF Pens is more toxic than the main boards and I’m not convinced a decent portion of this subforum even likes the Penguins.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Hot take: HF Pens is more toxic than the main boards and I’m not convinced a decent portion of this subforum even likes the Penguins.

That some serious long-con stuff if that's the case.

 

[66-30-33]

You know that a team can have crappy defense and a bad goalie at the same time, right?

Jarry sucks and the Pens D also blows.

Jarry only sucks after a few months of action. He's pretty solid October until about Jan before the stats start declining pretty quick. The first couple months Pens should have been lottery bad if it was not for Jarry and Ned saving our season.

 

[Victor Z]

Here's where I'm at with Jarry - it's not the end of the world if we keep him but based on the performances of other goalies, we can probably get "good enough goaltending" that doesn't cost us $5.75mil. I think you can get that with Neds-Blomqvist.

That would be outstanding but neither one of them has shown he can be a 1A guy in terms of workload, not to mention Blomqvist is obviously an untested rookie. I don't mind giving the rookie a *good* chance here next season, in fact I welcome it, but neither one of these 2 is going to be able to handle 50+ games. I'm not confident that Sully won't screw it up by doing something stupid like starting Ned 12 games in a row again.

The one time Ned tried a heavy workload, the result wasn't pretty. Yeah Detroit sucked, but Ned made substantial contributions to that -- he wasn't just an innocent bystander. He's not a workhorse, he's not spectacularly great in the net, he's basically just another mediocrity like Jarry and has the misfortune of playing behind whatever the hell it is the Pens play out there; it sure isn't "defense". Ned does lack Jarry's playoff/late-season pattern of choking. So far.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'd be a lot more inclined to want to keep Jarry if I knew the Penguins would treat him like a platoon goalie rather than a starting goalie. Maybe Jarry doesn't deteriorate later in the year if he's not playing like 70% of games in the first half of the year.

From October through January, Jarry was having a legitimately good season with a .913 save% in 32 games. Those 32 games were of the 46 games they had played so that year, which is 69.5% of games over that window. Why ride Jarry that hard when he has shown to break down later in the year? Nedjelkovic was also playing great to start the year, he had a .918 save% over that same window. Why didn't they use Nedjelkovic more earlier in the year to keep Jarry fresh for later in the year?

I think Jarry's late season breakdowns can heavily be explained with him being overused in the first half of the year as he's playing well. Which is obviously a flaw, but it's something a halfway decent coach should be able to plan around.

 

[66-30-33]

I'd be a lot more inclined to want to keep Jarry if I knew the Penguins would treat him like a platoon goalie rather than a starting goalie. Maybe Jarry doesn't deteriorate later in the year if he's not playing like 70% of games in the first half of the year.

From October through January, Jarry was having a legitimately good season with a .913 save% in 32 games. Those 32 games were of the 46 games they had played so that year, which is 69.5% of games over that window. Why ride Jarry that hard when he has shown to break down later in the year? Nedjelkovic was also playing great to start the year, he had a .918 save% over that same window. Why didn't they use Nedjelkovic more earlier in the year to keep Jarry fresh for later in the year?

I think Jarry's late season breakdowns can heavily be explained with him being overused in the first half of the year as he's playing well. Which is obviously a flaw, but it's something a halfway decent coach should be able to plan around.

Someone a few months back posted Jarrys month to month stats in his career, December being his best month but it declines from Jan slowly and a big hard bomb after that. As much as I don't like Jarry he's good to start the first few months.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Someone a few months back posted Jarrys month to month stats in his career, December being his best month but it declines from Jan slowly and a big hard bomb after that. As much as I don't like Jarry he's good to start the first few months.

The issue is that he should be used less early in the year to keep him fresher for later in the year.

It's not that he just suddenly forgets how to play goalie in February of every year. He's probably just worn down from not having the stamina to be a full blown starter. That's obviously a flaw but it's a flaw that can be worked around.

Just use Jarry and his backup/platoon goalie as a 1A and 1B with roughly equal games played. Jarry playing fewer games but putting up better numbers due to being fresher is a no brainer for everyone.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I'd personally put Rakell on the first line with Crosby and Rust.

Those three together are really good, and Rakell always plays his best hockey with Crosby. He did fine with Bunting and Malkin, but I think he'd do a lot better on Crosby's line.

Every winger does better with Crosby at this point, because Crosby is significantly better than Malkin these days.
But there's only 2 spots available on his wings.

 

[OnMyOwn]

Geno needs someone who can carry a bit at this point.

 

[the penitent]

A thought on Jarry that I'd like the board's feedback on. Watching him throughout the year, it seemed that at least in the first half of the year he was positionally really sound. However, it also seemed to me that he just doesn't seem athletic enough to make the big save when it's needed. Granted, having Pylon I, Pylon II and Pylon III playing defnese in front of you doesn't help, but he just doesn't have all the ingredients to steal games for this team.

Thoughts?

 

[MayorofWBS]

Living in a Mike Sullivan world, I'm fairly convinced that no goalie or defenseman will ever look good under his "defensive system". It's pretty much in terms of defense.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Jarry's shutouts this year:

19 saves vs. Washington, which finished 27th in goals scored this year.

31 saves vs. Colorado, which was one of his and the Penguins' best games of the year

35 saves vs. Buffalo, which didn't have Tuch and which ended up looking less impressive as the Sabres struggled to score consistently all year

22 saves vs. the Islanders, who looked like they were still on Christmas break in a 7-0 loss. The Isles weren't strong offensively this year, either.

22 saves vs. Seattle, which finished 28th in goals scored this year.

23 saves vs. Winnipeg, which finished tied with the Penguins in goals scored this year.

The only good offense Jarry shut out was Colorado.

Between this, his attitude, and the clear trend of him being terrible in February, March, and April, I hope Dubas dumps him somewhere.

 

[cygnus47]

Someone will have to go find the chart but someone posted on twitter a breakdown of sv% for Jarry based on danger. His high-danger sv% was near bottom of the league. His moderate danger sv% was only okay. Low danger was good.

He can save all of the low danger chances he wants but when he lets up 2-3 shots from the slot that are going to happen every game, it gets tough to defend him. He co-led the league in shutouts too with 6 so I mean, there were 100% some games (at least 6) where he was absolutely stellar. That said, I would hate to calculate his GAA and sv% if you took those 6 SOs away.

Here's where I'm at with Jarry - it's not the end of the world if we keep him but based on the performances of other goalies, we can probably get "good enough goaltending" that doesn't cost us $5.75mil. I think you can get that with Neds-Blomqvist.

Our whole system is built around forcing low danger shots and protecting the net. When we allow them is when our D f*** up, which happened a lot this year, so it makes sense that our goalies will struggle in those situations. I don't mean that to defend Jarry, who has been completely average, but it's always a consideration.

 

[T1K]

I’m not sure what the analytics say about him, but Warren Foegele impresses me every time I watch Edmonton. He’s a free agent. I don’t think he’d be overly expensive.

 

[Rave7215]

The issue is that he should be used less early in the year to keep him fresher for later in the year.

It's not that he just suddenly forgets how to play goalie in February of every year. He's probably just worn down from not having the stamina to be a full blown starter. That's obviously a flaw but it's a flaw that can be worked around.

Just use Jarry and his backup/platoon goalie as a 1A and 1B with roughly equal games played. Jarry playing fewer games but putting up better numbers due to being fresher is a no brainer for everyone.

I've been on this train for a while. Honestly, I thought that was the point of signing Ned. To have a goalie situation like Boston. The problem is, Sullivan runs his goaltending like runs everything else, with an outdated mindset. Anyone looking at Jarry's stats can see that Sullivan overplays him and can't last the entire season. The logical solution is to lessen his workload to keep him fresh.

I don't know why I expected a logical solution. Sullivan is still coach.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Our whole system is built around forcing low danger shots and protecting the net. When we allow them is when our D f*** up, which happened a lot this year, so it makes sense that our goalies will struggle in those situations. I don't mean that to defend Jarry, who has been completely average, but it's always a consideration.

The logic behind going with goalies like Murray and Jarry has always been to reroute the savings elsewhere on the team. Again not to defend any of our trash in net, but we consistently fail there too.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Jarry was like league average SV%. People still aren't used to the new standard, it seems. Scoring is way up.

He invariably stole us some points in the first 50 games or so. October and November points are equivalent to March and April points, no matter how often people try to twist that.

Goaltending wasn't one of the main pitfalls this year. He was fine. I'd prefer to talk about the things that did sink us.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Things that very clearly did sink us: power play, for sure.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

That some serious long-con stuff if that's the case.

I've posted on the board since you had to check the newspaper for yesterday's scores and Crosby scoring race updates.

Been a Kraken fan the whole time.

I started sowing the seeds of dissent early. Slowly. Imperceptibly. Until the whole house of cards came crashing down.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Geno needs someone who can carry a bit at this point.

Agree but in a perfect world I’d do the same for Sid as well.

 

[molon labe]

Jarry was like league average SV%. People still aren't used to the new standard, it seems. Scoring is way up.

He invariably stole us some points in the first 50 games or so. October and November points are equivalent to March and April points, no matter how often people try to twist that.

Goaltending wasn't one of the main pitfalls this year. He was fine. I'd prefer to talk about the things that did sink us.

He was inconsistent as hell... His puck handling took a monumental step backwards... He routinely made plays behind the net that threw the entire flow off for extended opposition offensive shifts...

Dude sucks. Flat out. Averaging his goals against is a horrible way to evaluate his total play. There's no better indication to how the team felt about him than that final stretch and especially that final game. Not every day you get to see 11 straight starts from your backup (when he hit 10 he had the record among all goalies in the league).

It's whatever if you don't want to talk about it but the Pens aren't winning with Jarry unless you want to go out and spend another 5M on a 1a/b to play with him bringing our total to 10-11M on goaltending. At that point is he winning you anything anyway? Money could be better spent.