Salary Cap: Penguins salary cap and line up thread

[Gurglesons]

Literally over half of his production this year is on the powerplay. Malkin's points/60 on the powerplay this year is nearly 3 points/60 higher than it was last year.

With his PP production per minute from last year, Malkin would have 32 points in 37 games this year. Which is almost identical to the overall pace he had last season as well (28 points in 33 games).

You're missing my point. Malkin made our power play successful. That isn't "farming". Powerplay production is part of the game.

 

[Gurglesons]

You were onto something earlier when you looked at our powerplay rate with an without Malkin.

That is the ultimate measure of a hockey player. Is the team better off with them on the ice?

Now extend that thinking to Malkin at even strength. Extend that over the last 4 years, including his great '19-'20. Doesn't look promising.

Look, I'll pay him his "preserve the legacy" 3/$21M but I'm not jumping for joy at it.

He's been doing fine in the models I actually trust.

Once again you guys are extrapolating something that is simply production at 5v5. That's fine, but Malkin is a franchise player. His impacts are more then just 5v5.

 

[Empoleon8771]

View attachment 529732

He's been doing fine in the models I actually trust.

Once again you guys are extrapolating something that is simply production at 5v5. That's fine, but Malkin is a franchise player. His impacts are more then just 5v5.

It just looks like Malkin's 2018-2019, which was fantastic and when he had that long run with Guentzel and Rust, is doing the heavy lifting there while his 2020-2021 (and presumable 2021-2022) have both been substantially worse.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Last year he made Kapanen look like a top six forward.

And this year?

He's producing better than anyone but our top line since coming back at 5v5.

That's more a massive indictment of how putrid our depth scoring has been over the past couple of months than it is a defense of Malkin.

Considering how little he's produced at ES over that stretch, he *shouldn't* be 4th among forwards in 5on5 scoring. That just highlights further how shitty the rest of the forwards have performed.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

I’m guessing all these people that have a problem with PP production would have wanted Lemieux traded somethin fierce.

Dude is a floater who only scores on the PP.

 

[Gurglesons]

As much as I want to keep Malkin, I have no interest in going 3 years x 8M.

I’ll pay him 8M for one year, if we’re going year by year, but I’m not going north of 7.1 if it’s more than 1 year. We don’t know exactly when he’ll slow down, but it’s more the dumb plays, bad penalties, bad defensive plays and the lack of certainty surrounding his durability that have me concerned.

Teams don't lose value by investing in their best players. We have 8 million dollars with term spent on two jabornis in Marino and Pettersson.

 

[Gurglesons]

And this year?

That's more a massive indictment of how putrid our depth scoring has been over the past couple of months than it is a defense of Malkin.

Considering how little he's produced at ES over that stretch, he *shouldn't* be 4th among forwards in 5on5 scoring. That just highlights further how shitty the rest of the forwards have performed.

This year he has 37 points in 37 games and 17 goals. The criticism of Malkin leaves me just as dumbfounded as the Letang takes in 2018.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I’m guessing all these people that have a problem with PP production would have wanted Lemieux traded somethin fierce.

Dude is a floater who only scores on the PP.

I don't have a problem with powerplay production, I just don't want to act like Malkin today is the same old Malkin when his powerplay production is masking his actual issues.

It's the same thing Kessel dealt with in his last year with the Penguins.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

DOC alert!?!?!?!?

Have to think he's going to get recalled with both Zohrona/Angello going down, even aside from the impending Malkin suspension.

I said a week ago -- if we didn't have enough cap space to have DOC instead of one of Zohorna or Angello up here, then send both of those guys down to bring up DOC.

Come on....it's been a no brainer for a while, and it's certainly time now.

I don't think so.

I think it's clearing the way for Brock McGinn's return. He returned to team practice five days ago. The team hasn't had much practice time since, but he skated several times since then. The team reported he skated before Sunday's game.

My guess is he's with the team on the short trip to New York. I don't know if he'll return tomorrow, but I think he's close. They'll make an emergency recall if they need to.

Sending Angello and Zohorna down frees up the space to take McGinn off of LTIR. When they active him, they'll have $133,655 in cap space.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

This year he has 37 points in 37 games and 17 goals. The criticism of Malkin leaves me just as dumbfounded as the Letang takes in 2018.

I thought we were talking about ES? That's where he has to carry around two corpses, not on the PP.

As I already stated, I'm someone who WANTS to re-sign him. I just don't think it's accurate to say he's still showing he can carry around two corpses on his wing and be productive. At this point in his career, it's clear he needs talent and not Fedotenko/Talbot on his wing to be productive at ES.

 

[Gurglesons]

It just looks like Malkin's 2018-2019, which was fantastic and when he had that long run with Guentzel and Rust, is doing the heavy lifting there while his 2020-2021 (and presumable 2021-2022) have both been substantially worse.

No it looks like he's good for 2 wins above value in three of the last four seasons.

 

[ChaosAgent]

View attachment 529732

He's been doing fine in the models I actually trust.

Once again you guys are extrapolating something that is simply production at 5v5. That's fine, but Malkin is a franchise player. His impacts are more then just 5v5.

2018-2019 5-on-5 GF: 49%
Next Year: 57%
Last Year: 49%
This Year: 41%

All of this on a winning team with far higher metrics and never starting in the defensive zone outside of an icing.

Evgeni Malkin - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

Eventually the models are supposed to converge to things that actually win hockey games. Results. Otherwise, the model isn't very good or at least very good at assessing this player. At some point if a player's modeled out stuff exceeds their on-ice results again and again and again, the results become more predictive than the model. IMO.

 

[Gurglesons]

2018-2019 5-on-5 GF: 49%
Next Year: 57%
Last Year: 49%
This Year: 41%

All of this on a winning team with far higher metrics and never starting in the defensive zone outside of an icing.

Evgeni Malkin - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

Eventually the models are supposed to converge to things that actually win hockey games. Results. Otherwise, the model isn't very good or at least very good at assessing this player. At some point if a player's modeled out stuff exceeds their on-ice results again and again and again, the results become more predictive than the model. IMO.

I must've missed the thing when hockey was only played at 5v5 and games are decided by who has more goals and less goals at 5v5.

Five on five goal differential is a statistic in Dom's model which is as good at predicting games as the book.

 

[Gurglesons]

I thought we were talking about ES? That's where he has to carry around two corpses, not on the PP.

As I already stated, I'm someone who WANTS to re-sign him. I just don't think it's accurate to say he's still showing he can carry around two corpses on his wing and be productive. At this point in his career, it's clear he needs talent and not Fedotenko/Talbot on his wing to be productive at ES.

He's been an effective player for the past four years with less than ideal talent.

The same people that argue Malkin hasn't been worth his contract are the people that try to act like the Toronto four aren't worth theirs.

 

[jmelm]

Teams don't lose value by investing in their best players. We have 8 million dollars with term spent on two jabornis in Marino and Pettersson.

You don’t throw good money after bad. What Marino or Pettersson make should have absolutely zero bearing on what we think we should play any other player.

Those contracts were also given out at a time when the cap was going up 3-5M every year. We’re in a flat cap now and overpaying Malkin on a multi year deal coils absolutely come back to bite us, especially considering concerns about his durability.

Overpaying Malkin = us losing another player (whoever that may be) = us being a worse team overall. I have no interest in going down that road, as much as I want to keep Geno.

And you can argue the timing of those contracts for Marino and Petts and if they should have been given bridge deals, but I have no doubt that both of those players will live up to their AAV sooner or later.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I must've missed the thing when hockey was only played at 5v5 and games are decided by who has more goals and less goals at 5v5.

Five on five goal differential is a statistic in Dom's model which is as good at predicting games as the book.

Ah yes, as we should have kept Phil as our PP specialist after 2019.

It's pretty easy to math this out. If Geno's worth 5% to our powerplay and we draw, what, 250-300 penalties a season...that's an incremental 12-15 goals. Cool. Oh wait - he's gone for 30-50% of the season so factor that in as well, so it's more like 6-11 goals. Counter that with not getting the results you want out of your second line unless you overload it with two stars in Jake and Rust given premium zone starts. Evens out.

Then throw in aging and it's pretty clear on the merits he will not be an $8M player from age 36-38, cumulatively.

But because of the living legend, Sid/Geno into the sunset thing we'll bring him back. It's not an ideal option but it's the least bad one, otherwise we've Sullied the legacy of the core.

 

[Gurglesons]

Ah yes, as we should have kept Phil as our PP specialist after 2019.

It's pretty easy to math this out. If Geno's worth 5% to our powerplay and we draw, what, 250-300 penalties a season...that's an incremental 12-15 goals. Cool. Oh wait - he's gone for 30-50% of the season so factor that in as well, so it's more like 6-11 goals. Counter that with not getting the results you want out of your second line unless you overload it with two stars in Jake and Rust given premium zone starts. Evens out.

Then throw in aging and it's pretty clear on the merits he will not be an $8M player from age 36-38, cumulatively.

But because of the living legend, Sid/Geno into the sunset thing we'll bring him back. It's not an ideal option but it's the least bad one, otherwise we've Sullied the legacy of the core.

Dom’s math is flexing the bookie line. I’ll take his over yours.

 

[Trade]

The Malkin slander here lately has been on another level and It’s pretty embarrassing.

Wanting to nickel and dime Evgeni f***ing Malkin, who has already said he’s not worried about the money, is idiotic.

Are we really gonna be like “ohhhh Malkin wants 8.5, sorry buddy, hope Florida treats you well!”

All this talk about wanting to expedite into the rebuild is wacko talk. Just shows a lack of ability to appreciate the greatness we still currently have in front of us, leading our team.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Dom’s math is flexing the bookie line. I’ll take his over yours.

The best argument you've made in this thread. Seriously.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Being an adult and still being like "*sparkly anime eyes* WAOW EVGENI MALKIN!" is, uh, weird.

Dude's just about 36, misses a shitload of time each season, and is getting markedly worse. Like Emp said, paying the dude $8 million or more is purely driven by nostalgia and ~legacy~ as opposed to being a rational use of cap. There probably isn't much better out there, but f*** it. I'd rather the team rip the band-aid off and begin the rebuild than lock in another three or four years of increasingly boring, bad hockey just because the names on the back of the jerseys are recognizable. If the team's got no shot at competing for Cups anymore, shift approach and start trying to rake in the top-5, top-10 picks. I'd rather they work toward legit competing again as opposed to hang on to old dudes for a victory lap and a several year Queen's wave.

I know, I know. Sacrilege. I just stopped idolizing multi-millionaire athletes when I was like 15.

 

[ronduguayshair]

I’m guessing all these people that have a problem with PP production would have wanted Lemieux traded somethin fierce.

Dude is a floater who only scores on the PP.

Difference? Mario wouldn’t have 2 primary assists in 37 games 5 on 5.

 

[ronduguayshair]

The Malkin slander here lately has been on another level and It’s pretty embarrassing.

Wanting to nickel and dime Evgeni f***ing Malkin, who has already said he’s not worried about the money, is idiotic.

Are we really gonna be like “ohhhh Malkin wants 8.5, sorry buddy, hope Florida treats you well!”

All this talk about wanting to expedite into the rebuild is wacko talk. Just shows a lack of ability to appreciate the greatness we still currently have in front of us, leading our team.

2 primary assists 5 on 5 all season

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Malkin slander here lately has been on another level and It’s pretty embarrassing.

Wanting to nickel and dime Evgeni f***ing Malkin, who has already said he’s not worried about the money, is idiotic.

Are we really gonna be like “ohhhh Malkin wants 8.5, sorry buddy, hope Florida treats you well!”

All this talk about wanting to expedite into the rebuild is wacko talk. Just shows a lack of ability to appreciate the greatness we still currently have in front of us, leading our team.

I would substantially rather let Malkin walk and try to retool this team with a new core than to significantly overpay Malkin to stay for legacy's sake.

 

[Gurglesons]

You don’t throw good money after bad. What Marino or Pettersson make should have absolutely zero bearing on what we think we should play any other player.

Those contracts were also given out at a time when the cap was going up 3-5M every year. We’re in a flat cap now and overpaying Malkin on a multi year deal coils absolutely come back to bite us, especially considering concerns about his durability.

Overpaying Malkin = us losing another player (whoever that may be) = us being a worse team overall. I have no interest in going down that road, as much as I want to keep Geno.

And you can argue the timing of those contracts for Marino and Petts and if they should have been given bridge deals, but I have no doubt that both of those players will live up to their AAV sooner or later.

Malkin isn’t bad.

Being an adult and still being like "*sparkly anime eyes* WAOW EVGENI MALKIN!" is, uh, weird.

Dude's just about 36, misses a shitload of time each season, and is getting markedly worse. Like Emp said, paying the dude $8 million or more is purely driven by nostalgia and ~legacy~ as opposed to being a rational use of cap. There probably isn't much better out there, but f*** it. I'd rather the team rip the band-aid off and begin the rebuild than lock in another three or four years of increasingly boring, bad hockey just because the names on the back of the jerseys are recognizable. If the team's got no shot at competing for Cups anymore, shift approach and start trying to rake in the top-5, top-10 picks. I'd rather they work toward legit competing again as opposed to hang on to old dudes for a victory lap and a several year Queen's wave.

I know, I know. Sacrilege. I just stopped idolizing multi-millionaire athletes when I was like 15.

Red Wings look great without Lidstrom and Datsyuk for the last decade.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I would substantially rather let Malkin walk and try to retool this team with a new core than to significantly overpay Malkin to stay for legacy's sake.

Look, Geno can render all this slander moot.

Score more goals. Be on the ice when more goals are scored by your team, even if you're flanked by Rickard Rakell or Jason Zucker (the indignity of all!). Allow fewer goals.

Make it to where the right hockey decision aligns to the right decision by this team's legacy.

I still think he can do it.