Salary Cap: Penguins future roster building (2017-18 and beyond) | Contract/FA charts in Post #1

[JimmyTwoTimes]

If Bonino leaves, JR will trade for another 3C. Thornton will get a 3-4 year deal somewhere. Or take less to go somewhere where he can win. But it won't be here if we win it all this year.

 

[Don'tcry4mejanhrdina]

Wonder if there would be a way to pry Cogliano out of Anaheim.

The guy has never missed a game in his career. Him coming to the Pens would be a sign of the apocalypse.

 

[Riptide]

It depend on where you put Murray in all of this, he has played like a top 10 goalie all season long and in the playoffs he was a top 5. He's only 22yrs old and signed to a good deal, there are a lot of teams that were done in because of terrible goaltending this year with teams like the Flames, Flyers, Jets, etc etc...

Just an FYI, MAF outplayed him the latter 1/3rd of the season.

It's not a tough decision at all. Goalies don't typically bring the market value you'd hope for, and especially not when everyone knows we need to get rid of one of our goalies. That kills both Maf and Murray's value.

So...you go with the young goalie. It's lunacy to want the goalie in his 30s over the one in his early 20s, especially when by every objective metric the young goalie has outperformed the older one.

Maf is having a hell of a run and I'm proud of him, but 8 strong games don't suddenly make him more valuable than Murray to this franchise.

By how much though?

MAF last 4 playoffs (including that 1 game in Tampa where he hadn't played in 8 weeks): 15-13, .923%, 2.38 GAA
MAF last 3 playoffs as starter (excluding last year): 15-12, .925%, 2.35 GAA
MAF in 13/14, 14/15 (just to show the impact this year has): .919%, 2.32 GAA
Murray: 15-6, .923%, 2.08 GAA

I'm not seeing much of a difference in the PO numbers - and certainly not something I'd be bragging about.

MAF 13/14-15/16 RS: 108-55-20, .919%, 2.33 GAA
MAF 13/14-16/17 RS: 126-65-27, .917%, 2.44 GAA
MAF 2016/17 RS: 18-10-7, .909%, 3.02 GAA
MAF From 2/15/17+: 4-3-2, .925%, 2.58 GAA
Murray From 2/15/17+: 11-4-2, .920%, 2.64 GAA
Murray 2016/17 RS: 32-10-4, .923%, 2.41 GAA

For me it's not a matter of who's better or not, because I really do not think that the difference is that great. Sure the numbers this year in the RS for MAF are bad, but around mid Feb MAF finally found his game and got back to his historical numbers. And it's not like Murray's numbers this year are much different than MAFs historical ones. And while his playoffs this year are great, they're also not massive improvements over his historical numbers. Improvements yes, but not ones so amazing that they'd never be reachable again. Neither are Murray's playoff numbers all that different then MAFs playoff numbers prior to the last 2 years.

That said, it's just the age thing. Murray is young enough that he will be here throughout the prime of Crosby, Malkin, Letang and Kessel's careers. MAF could be, but I'd really question anyone who thinks that MAF could be as good as he has been the last few years for another 5+ years. So unless someone is offering something completely over the top, I'd pass and just move on from MAF.

 

[Riptide]

Cam Talbot was traded for the 57th, 79th and 180 something pick.

Martin Jones was traded for a late 1st round pick.

Ben Bishop barely netted any decent player.

Scott Darling's rights for a 3rd rounder

Frederick Anderson was traded for a 1st round pick (pens' 30th overall) and a second round pick

The goalie market is not very lucrative. I think the best we could get is a mid 1st rounder. I know I know, Murray won a cup. But his injury problems might negate his Stanley Cup run.

And not a single one of those guys (at the time of the trade) even comes close to comparing to Murray.

Jones - started a grand total of 25 or so NHL games over 2 years. Good numbers, but was playing on one of the most structured teams in the league and there was little to go on.

Bishop - Pending UFA rental. No **** he returned crap value.

Darling - Career backup, pending UFA, who if he didn't sign a contract would go to FA without having played a single game for Carolina. I'm surprise he even fetched that much (or got the contract he did).

Anderson at the time of his trade is probably the only example you gave that even comes close to what Murray currently is. And even then I don't think it's a great one.

The one I see you left off was Schneider - who was older (26) and not an established starter (highest career start was 33 games), and he fetched the 9th overall pick in a pretty strong draft. That is probably the closest comparable you'll find - and even then I think it's pretty safe to say that Murray is better, and unlike Schneider isn't a UFA when his current contract expires.

 

[Riptide]

If Bonino costs too much then I want to see us go for Thornton on a 1 year deal.

I'd kick tires on him regardless. But that's entirely on him and whether he wants to try to come here solely to win a cup, or if he's willing to keep "going at it" in SJ and to try and win a cup with "his" team where he's been for the last decade - or go elsewhere and play on perhaps a good team and receive a good contract for it. But there's no chance I'd give him a 2 year deal. He's slow to begin with, is damn close to 40, and had some serious knee injuries at the end of the season.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Just an FYI, MAF outplayed him the latter 1/3rd of the season.

No he didn't.

Fleury in the last 28 games: .925 save in 9 games
Murray in the last 28 games: .926 save% in 19 games

 

[Shrimper]

I'd kick tires on him regardless. But that's entirely on him and whether he wants to try to come here solely to win a cup, or if he's willing to keep "going at it" in SJ and to try and win a cup with "his" team where he's been for the last decade - or go elsewhere and play on perhaps a good team and receive a good contract for it. But there's no chance I'd give him a 2 year deal. He's slow to begin with, is damn close to 40, and had some serious knee injuries at the end of the season.

Yeah, anything more than a 1 year deal would be stupid. I feel giving contracts over 1 year for player aged old than 35 is a huge risk that teams should avoid if possible.

 

[Pancakes]

For me it's not a matter of who's better or not, because I really do not think that the difference is that great.

That said, it's just the age thing. Murray is young enough that he will be here throughout the prime of Crosby, Malkin, Letang and Kessel's careers. MAF could be, but I'd really question anyone who thinks that MAF could be as good as he has been the last few years for another 5+ years. So unless someone is offering something completely over the top, I'd pass and just move on from MAF.

That's the thing. Even if all else was equal (and it's debatable whether that's the case), you've got a younger goalie. And not slightly younger. Much much younger. We're talking a 10 year difference.

It'd be enormously shortsighted to throw that away in favor of Maf, especially given Murray has proven we can win a cup with him already.

Even if someone offered a stupidly good deal for Murray I'm not sure I'd do it. Having an elite young goalie locked up for a long time is worth a lot.

So to me the decision couldn't be clearer, even with Maf's incredible performance in the playoffs to date. Even if he wins a cup and is our Conn Smythe. You still stay with Murray. It just makes the most sense.

 

[Riptide]

No he didn't.

Fleury in the last 28 games: .925 save in 9 games
Murray in the last 28 games: .926 save% in 19 games

Not sure what you're looking at, but you're wrong.

On Feb 15th there were 27 games left for the end of the season - which is exactly 1/3rd (well 27.33 so close enough). MAF started 8, Murray started 18 and Jarry started 1.

MAF: 4-3-2, .925%, 2.58 GAA
Murray: 11-4-2, .920%, 2.64 GAA

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...=2017-05-07&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=wins

 

[66-30-33]

Rebuild this D please. Keep everyone but Letang and Schultz, work on the rest. If we have to work on it over the next few years? so be it, especially if we win the cup this year for back to back cups. Make the D work with the forwards and make them fast.

 

[Pancakes]

Rebuild this D please. Keep everyone but Letang and Schultz, work on the rest. If we have to work on it over the next few years? so be it, especially if we win the cup this year for back to back cups. Make the D work with the forwards and make them fast.

If Maatta can play like he has this game a bit more often I'd love to keep him (big if). Also I like Ian Cole.

Daley/Hainsey gotta go though.

Amusingly enough Shattenkirk could be a Pens target depending on how we want to spend that big chunk of cap space we might have this off season.

 

[Riptide]

Rebuild this D please. Keep everyone but Letang and Schultz, work on the rest. If we have to work on it over the next few years? so be it, especially if we win the cup this year for back to back cups. Make the D work with the forwards and make them fast.

Nothing wrong with Maatta or Dumoulin. I could see the complaint that they make and awkward top 4, but really we do not have too many options. Things just look so much worse due to us missing Letang.

 

[WayneSid9987]

The D is fine if it stays healthy.
Ideally, JR can get a middle 6 beef up to survive a Letang or Schultz going down better.

 

[Hockeyholic]

At what point do you look at moving Letang? There are puck moving defenceman eho don't miss 40 games a season.

 

[SprootsMasterFlex]

The D is fine if it stays healthy.
Ideally, JR can get a middle 6 beef up to survive a Letang or Schultz going down better.

I can envision a Fleury + deal for Brodie. He needs to get out of Calgary with Gio and Hamilton in front of him.

 

[Cherpak]

Rebuild this D please. Keep everyone but Letang and Schultz, work on the rest. If we have to work on it over the next few years? so be it, especially if we win the cup this year for back to back cups. Make the D work with the forwards and make them fast.

WTF would they get rid of Letang and Shultz?

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Not sure what you're looking at, but you're wrong.

On Feb 15th there were 27 games left for the end of the season - which is exactly 1/3rd (well 27.33 so close enough). MAF started 8, Murray started 18 and Jarry started 1.

MAF: 4-3-2, .925%, 2.58 GAA
Murray: 11-4-2, .920%, 2.64 GAA

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...=2017-05-07&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=wins

I'm confused what you are arguing here...

Those numbers show me that Murray played better than MAF. The sv % and gaa aren't that big of a gap, while the win percentage is significantly in Murray's favor.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Not sure what you're looking at, but you're wrong.

On Feb 15th there were 27 games left for the end of the season - which is exactly 1/3rd (well 27.33 so close enough). MAF started 8, Murray started 18 and Jarry started 1.

MAF: 4-3-2, .925%, 2.58 GAA
Murray: 11-4-2, .920%, 2.64 GAA

http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...=2017-05-07&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,&sort=wins

I like how you're specifically picking that timeframe. Why not go back a day from February 15th? Murray's at a .924 save% if you do that. Why not go back to February 11th? Fleury's now at a .919 save% if you do that.

From February 1st to the end of the season, Murray was at a .925 save% and Fleury was at a .921 save%. It seems extremely disingenuous to say Fleury was better to close the season than Murray was.

 

[Penske]

WTF would they get rid of Letang and Shultz?

I think he meant keep Letang and Schultz and get rid of the rest.

 

[T1K]

Hypothetical: what (realistic) return would it take for us to trade Murray instead of MAF?

Last year it likely would have been 6th overall, Tkachuck. I'm not familiar enough with this upcoming draft, but for me the return would need to be one of the top D men in this draft + a pick/prospect, or a young expansion exempt d man with high potential.

It's a lot simpler to just trade MAF for whatever we can get, and that's what I'm in favor of doing, but you could make the case that trading Murray for a king's ransom is the better decision from an asset management POV.

 

[Asuna]

getting the third overall from dallas would be cool

probably still wouldn't do it though

 

[Empoleon8771]

Hypothetical: what (realistic) return would it take for us to trade Murray instead of MAF?

There isn't a realistic return that I'd trade Murray for before I'd just dump Fleury. What I'd want is a guy like Hanifin, and guys like Hanifin aren't traded for guys like Murray. Even if the Penguins could get the 3rd overall pick for Murray, I still wouldn't do it because the 3rd overall pick won't help as much as Murray will for quite a few years (if it ever does).

I'd start dangling Maatta and Sheary as a package this summer to see how good of a defensemen the Penguins can get. Even when healthy, the Penguins defense just isn't good enough. Bringing in a legitimate top pair D pushes everyone into a more appropriate role, with Dumoulin-Schultz as the 2nd pair and Cole anchoring the bottom pair.

 

[Fordy]

I'm confused what you are arguing here...

Those numbers show me that Murray played better than MAF. The sv % and gaa aren't that big of a gap, while the win percentage is significantly in Murray's favor.

for some reason we are here in the playoffs in the middle of a hard fought series and certain people are still trying to twist regular season statistics to argue... something?

 

[chethejet]

I still think Dallas would be the best trade for MAF. No question Pens have to take back Niemi as part of the deal. MAF for Niemi and defense men Johns and then either buyout Niemi or keep him to allow Jarry to play in the AHL for more seasoning. Pens get the second year of MAF off the books and sets up Jarry as coming to the big club.

 

[xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

To move Murray, I'd want Trouba.