Value of: Pavel Buchnevich

[KasperTheGrittyGhost]

Buch to Detroit. Yzerman and Army make a deal every year. Detroit’s taken 30+ quality young d. Buch for Wallinder, a roster piece and a 1st.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Buch to Detroit. Yzerman and Army make a deal every year. Detroit’s taken 30+ quality young d. Buch for Wallinder, a roster piece and a 1st.

If by roster piece you mean Raymond, sure. I’d do that.

 

[AirGut]

Kakko + 1st for Buchnevich @20% retention

 

[sandwichbird2023]

It's really hard to pin down the value of a guy like Buchnevich because of that impending contract situation. He's not in that pure "rental" market where you've got a lot of baseline comparables to work from.

But a lot of it also kinda comes down to what sort of contract you think Buchnevich is going to want as a UFA after next year. You can't spend multiple premium top tier futures assets on a guy you're not sure you can afford to keep beyond that. Optically, it's suicide for a GM to do that kind of thing.

So it puts the acquiring team in an awkward situation, adding leverage for Buch's camp because they know the GM can't afford to walk away.

You're realistically looking at $9M+ at that point, on more or less a "retirement term". Is that something you're comfortable with? The answer to that question ultimately has to factor into the equation of what you can afford to give up in terms of "assets". Especially when it's compounded by the risk of the player deciding to just walk for a huge payday somewhere else anyway.


But...he'd be a game changing acquisition for a playoff team looking to add something big to really put them over the top. Few other wingers who are even potentially available would have the sort of impact you get from a big, robust, ~PPG two-way winger with a bit of center versatility...right in his prime. And his contract for this year and next is very reasonable and at least within striking distance of fitting into a lot of team's limited cap space, with a little bit of finagling.

Kind of feels like the JT Miller situation a couple seasons ago. A productive forward with a low current cap hit and 1 more season signed beyond the "current season". Not much interest at that time league-wide. Buch has a much better reputation than JTM so there will be more suitors, but I'm not sure he will return the premium package the Blues will be looking for, based on past precedent. I'm prepared to be surprised though.

 

[MNRube]

Prospect & and a pick. Little less than what Kings got for Fiala

 

[stl76]

Kakko + 1st for Buchnevich @20% retention

Add another high value asset. Actually, take out Kakko and add two haha

Prospect & and a pick. Little less than what Kings got for Fiala

Fiala was an RFA for his trade so ostensibly the acquiring team had some measure of control. However he needed a new contract immediately and there was no cost certainty for an extra year.

If a team pays up and acquires Buchnevich at this upcoming TDL, that team gets another full year at $5.8 million. Plus the possibility of retention all the way down to under $3 million (or more if a third team gets involved).

Personally, I’d rather try to re-sign Buch or just wait till next year if the best offer is a 1st + prospect (unless the prospect is extremely valuable).

 

[biturbo19]

Kind of feels like the JT Miller situation a couple seasons ago. A productive forward with a low current cap hit and 1 more season signed beyond the "current season". Not much interest at that time league-wide. Buch has a much better reputation than JTM so there will be more suitors, but I'm not sure he will return the premium package the Blues will be looking for, based on past precedent. I'm prepared to be surprised though.

The tricky thing is though, because nothing actually happened...we don't really know exactly what the "interest" was. Whether it was limited, or whether it was simply too high an ask for the Canucks to part with him. Whether the looming contract situation killed the interest levels. Or whether it was Bo getting moved all along.

And when JT Miller was dealt from Tampa to Vancouver, he still had a bundle of years left on a very good contract. So that's not really a comparable either.


It's just a complicated situation with Buchnevich. Somewhat similar to the Canucks position with JT Miller a couple years back in some ways...but remains to be seen whether they can get an extension done or not, if they'd prefer to just keep him. To me, that seemed like the intent previously. With all the rumours that the Blues were looking for more of a "retool" rather than a "rebuild". But things can change.


Could certainly be tough to put together a framework for a deal that works without a lot of good comparables though. Makes the "value" pretty murky, and might lean more toward being treated like a "rental" value anyway (despite the extra year). Where you could look at something along the lines of the Horvat deal as a baseline.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

The tricky thing is though, because nothing actually happened...we don't really know exactly what the "interest" was. Whether it was limited, or whether it was simply too high an ask for the Canucks to part with him. Whether the looming contract situation killed the interest levels. Or whether it was Bo getting moved all along.

And when JT Miller was dealt from Tampa to Vancouver, he still had a bundle of years left on a very good contract. So that's not really a comparable either.


It's just a complicated situation with Buchnevich. Somewhat similar to the Canucks position with JT Miller a couple years back in some ways...but remains to be seen whether they can get an extension done or not, if they'd prefer to just keep him. To me, that seemed like the intent previously. With all the rumours that the Blues were looking for more of a "retool" rather than a "rebuild". But things can change.


Could certainly be tough to put together a framework for a deal that works without a lot of good comparables though. Makes the "value" pretty murky, and might lean more toward being treated like a "rental" value anyway (despite the extra year). Where you could look at something along the lines of the Horvat deal as a baseline.

Based on the rumors floating around at the time, NYR was the only team that put a legitimate offer on the table? I believe it was something like Chytil + Lundqvist + 1st, and the Nucks retain a little bit on Miller? The Nucks wanted Schneider in place of Lundqvist and was quickly shot down by the other side. There were speculations that other teams are also interested but never even made an offer, I think Carolina and Colorado were mentioned.

They were just rumors so we can't know for sure how much of that is true, but what I gather is that, league-wide interest were fairly meh. Perhaps Vancouver set the asking price at too high a level and teams just got spooked? Perhaps Vancouver were never serious about trading JTM as their intention was to keep him? Perhaps JTM has a reputation among the GMs that hurt his trade value? Hard to say, but he is the closest recent comparable to Buchnevich in terms of the player's contract status, position, and production.

 

[biturbo19]

Based on the rumors floating around at the time, NYR was the only team that put a legitimate offer on the table? I believe it was something like Chytil + Lundqvist + 1st, and the Nucks retain a little bit on Miller? The Nucks wanted Schneider in place of Lundqvist and was quickly shot down by the other side. There were speculations that other teams are also interested but never even made an offer, I think Carolina and Colorado were mentioned.

They were just rumors so we can't know for sure how much of that is true, but what I gather is that, league-wide interest were fairly meh. Perhaps Vancouver set the asking price at too high a level and teams just got spooked? Perhaps Vancouver were never serious about trading JTM as their intention was to keep him? Perhaps JTM has a reputation among the GMs that hurt his trade value? Hard to say, but he is the closest recent comparable to Buchnevich in terms of the player's contract status, position, and production.

That's the thing though. There were also rumors that Carolina, New Jersey, Islanders were interested. Even the Penguins name seemed to come up. But ultimately we don't have a clue because they were all just that. Rumors. It's highly likely that package is essentially just...made up by an "insider" somewhere along the line, and people ran with it.

He certainly might be the closest recent comparable...but ultimately he's a bit useless as a baseline for "value", because nothing ever happened. So it's awfully hard to lean on a comparable that didn't actually happen. Since, as a comparable...it would indicate that Buchnevich just signs an extension with the Blues.


What it might tell us though, is that because it's such an unconventional and tough deal to make for value...St Louis may also opt to just keep him for the year and try to either get an extension done, or deal him as more of a "rental" where the market is much clearer with a ton of comparables to bracket in Buchnevich "value".

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

The tricky thing is though, because nothing actually happened...we don't really know exactly what the "interest" was. Whether it was limited, or whether it was simply too high an ask for the Canucks to part with him. Whether the looming contract situation killed the interest levels. Or whether it was Bo getting moved all along.

And when JT Miller was dealt from Tampa to Vancouver, he still had a bundle of years left on a very good contract. So that's not really a comparable either.


It's just a complicated situation with Buchnevich. Somewhat similar to the Canucks position with JT Miller a couple years back in some ways...but remains to be seen whether they can get an extension done or not, if they'd prefer to just keep him. To me, that seemed like the intent previously. With all the rumours that the Blues were looking for more of a "retool" rather than a "rebuild". But things can change.


Could certainly be tough to put together a framework for a deal that works without a lot of good comparables though. Makes the "value" pretty murky, and might lean more toward being treated like a "rental" value anyway (despite the extra year). Where you could look at something along the lines of the Horvat deal as a baseline.

I can’t see him being dealt this year for so little. If that is all that is out there for 2 playoff runs somewhere, then he won’t be dealt this season. We need timo type package to deal him early. If he is still unsigned next year we can always deal him for rental package then. Why would we do so now?

 

[biturbo19]

I can’t see him being dealt this year for so little. If that is all that is out there for 2 playoff runs somewhere, then he won’t be dealt this season. We need timo type package to deal him early. If he is still unsigned next year we can always deal him for rental package then. Why would we do so now?

Yeah. That really does seem like the more likely scenario here.

For one, i'm really not sold on the idea that the Blues will be true "sellers" this year. More likely one of those ambiguous retooling "coming or going?" teams. I mean, they're a playoff team.

But yeah, it's also a question of...how much more would they even really get for him now, and is it worth it? More utility to just playing out the year with the Blues and reevaluate where they at with various things next year. Move him for a haul as a rental anyway if it comes to that.

Same thing the Canucks did with their Bo/JT conundrum. Using the time they had to continue to evaluate what they want to do, where the team is at, and what the market looks like.


That said, i didn't think the Timo package was that huge, largely because of his own looming contract quagmire with that ultra high QO leverage. So something along those lines wouldn't be out of line at all for Buchnevich, despite being a couple years older. Just really unclear whether teams would actually view the situations as comparable - with RFA with UFA potential in a year compared to straight "gun to you head" UFA for certain.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

That's the thing though. There were also rumors that Carolina, New Jersey, Islanders were interested. Even the Penguins name seemed to come up. But ultimately we don't have a clue because they were all just that. Rumors. It's highly likely that package is essentially just...made up by an "insider" somewhere along the line, and people ran with it.

He certainly might be the closest recent comparable...but ultimately he's a bit useless as a baseline for "value", because nothing ever happened. So it's awfully hard to lean on a comparable that didn't actually happen. Since, as a comparable...it would indicate that Buchnevich just signs an extension with the Blues.


What it might tell us though, is that because it's such an unconventional and tough deal to make for value...St Louis may also opt to just keep him for the year and try to either get an extension done, or deal him as more of a "rental" where the market is much clearer with a ton of comparables to bracket in Buchnevich "value".

Its also just hard to make a trade when almost all the contenders are capped out. So the Blues will either have to take some bad salary back (which will require sweeteners from the acquiring team, thus making the trade more expensive), or a 3rd team will have to be involved, which will again make it more expensive for the acquiring team.

It does seem the more likely outcome is that Buch will either be extended in the summer (like the precedent of JTM), or traded next season as a rental. It is hard to visualize a trade this season where the Blues get what they are asking for (which is rightfully a lot for 2 playoff runs with a point per game 2 way beast), the acquiring team being able to fit him in under the cap and doing so at a cost that is acceptable. But you can never say never though.