Patrik Laine

[TheBig08]

Well then i don’t know what to tell ya. I suggest you go through all his games played to date, and then maybe YOU can explain it to US!

The only explanation I can come up with is there is no reason behind him falling off and that the numbers he produced were produced because he was only good enough to produce those numbers.

 

[TheBig08]

He's a above average player that has a good shot and good hands and can put up 30-40 something goals a season, can put up 30-40 something assist a season, and can produce just under or a point per game.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

I think people just had it in their mind that Laine was the next Ovechkin and expected him to produce like that

I do think he had a big personality clash with Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler, or at the very least he was pressured into playing the game like them instead of playing his own game that was working

 

[TheBig08]

I think people just had it in their mind that Laine was the next Ovechkin and expected him to produce like that

Yeah, they hyped him up to have 50-60 goals seasons and win multiple richards

 

[Turin]

His issues preventing him from becoming a superstar is that he wasn't quick enough/not good enough on the wall. Injuries + gaining weight made him worse at those things, not better + also affected his shot at times. He had the hands, the shot, the passing ability and a good enough top speed but he did not have the athleticism or confidence of a Kovalchuk or Ovechkin to reach those heights.

 

[TheBig08]

His issues preventing him from becoming a superstar is that he wasn't quick enough/not good enough on the wall. Injuries + gaining weight made him worse at those things, not better + also affected his shot at times. He had the hands, the shot, the passing ability and a good enough top speed but he did not have the athleticism or confidence of a Kovalchuk or Ovechkin to reach those heights.

They weren't career altering or career endings injuries and gaining weight has nothing to do with his speed for example ovi was 210-220 when he was younger and he was fast and laine is only 204 as of right now, his confidence is not a problem he just put up 44 goals good enough for 2nd in league goals and he did it at 19 he has no reason to have no confidence, and him not be quick enough he wasn't know for being fast he was know for a good shot and good hands and he could pass.

 

[Bouboumaster]

We we're given that dude
I'm ok with him becoming a 30 goals/60 points type a guy, honestly
I want him to reach back to his peak but I don't get any ideas

30 goals / 30 pass seems reachable

 

[ps241]

What happened to Patrik Laine goal scoring after his first two seasons?

He did really good his first two seasons scoring his first season (2016-2017, 18 years of age) 36 goals in 73 games (on pace for 40 goals) then his second season (2017-2018, 19 years of age) 44 goals in 82 games coming in 2nd for most goals in the league then after that he hasn't been able to put up those goal scoring totals since. The next season (2018-2019, 20 years of age) he has a big drop off and only scores 30 goals in 82 games and then never played a full season again but all those seasons he never was on pace for 40 goals in 82 games (2019-2020, 21 years of age) 28 goals in 68 games (lockout season teams playing only 68 to 71 games that depending on which team his played 71) he was on pace for 34 goals in 82 games, (2020-2021, 22 years of age) 12 goals in 46 games (lockout season all teams playing a max of 56 games, He played on game for the jets then was traded to the blue jackets and played the rest of his games there) he was on pace for 21 goals in 82 games, (2021-2022, 23 years of age) 26 goals in 56 games that put him on pace for 38 goals in 82 games (the closest he would ever get to 40 goals), (2022-2023, 24 years of age) 22 goals in 55 games puts him on pace for 33 goals in 82 games, (2023-2024, 25 years of age) 6 goals in 18 games that puts him on pace for 27 goals in 82 games.

Just in case anybody brings up the fact he has had injuries and healthy scratches , I know he has had injuries in the past but none of them were career altering or career ending injuries and I don't know the reasons behind the healthy scratches but if you know let me know.

TLDR warning

So to weigh in on the OP.

Jets season ticket holder and had a ringside seat and have an opinion.

The challenge was in his first two seasons in Winnipeg he had an unsustainable shooting %. That created a bit of a overhyping and elevated expectations. The first year he shot 17.7% and the next season (his career season for goals) he shot 18.3%. The following year his shooting % dropped to 12.2 %, then 12.4%, 13%, 15.6%, 12%, then an 18 games season so that sample size is tough. My best guess is the league figured his tendencies out and made adjustments to make life tougher. Also there is a randomness to shooting % for all goal scorers but Patrick’s was more front loaded than what I have historically seen.

Elite Goal scorers tend to have two main skills, first off they have a good shot, duh (accuracy), second element is way less talked about but just as important which is their “skill/ability” to create shots (volume). It’s always accuracy x volume.

Patrik has a beautiful shot even though he tended to shoot from range allot. Still the main area that I think he was challenged with is he wasn’t as elite at generating shots. His shot totals by season started at 204 as a rookie, then 241 in his second season. His 3rd season he peaked at 245 shots, then 226, 167, 184. Now injuries played a part so I break it down to shots per game average over a season. In his first two awesome seasons it was 2.79 shots per game then, 2.98, 3.3, 1.7 (poor sample size), 2.93, 3.3.

his shooting volume has remained pretty flat over the years so by that measurement not much has changed. The first two seasons were outliers driven by high shooting %.

If you look at other goal scores like Matthew’s what is so impressive is he has steadily grown his shooting volume over the years and he has a great shooting % too. He checks both the boxes of volume and accuracy. Same as a kid like Caufield that has really grown his shooting volume since his rookie season. The only thing that hurt him last season was a terrible shooting % but if his accuracy regresses toward the mean this season he should get around 40 goals if he plays 82 games.

With Laine his shooting % dropped and his volumes stayed pretty level, then we layer in the injury history and the challenges he had last season and here we are. Either way Laine’s biggest issue will probably remain his health (until proven otherwise), when healthy he should continue to pace at a 30-35 goal scoring level over large sample sizes (shooting % not withstanding).

 

[Turin]

They weren't career altering or career endings injuries and gaining weight has nothing to do with his speed for example ovi was 210-220 when he was younger and he was fast and laine is only 204 as of right now, his confidence is not a problem he just put up 44 goals good enough for 2nd in league goals and he did it at 19 he has no reason to have no confidence, and him not be quick enough he wasn't know for being fast he was know for a good shot and good hands and he could pass.

1. Laine famously gets down on himself in slumps.
2. Laine was heavier when he started his early decline.
3. What does what he’s known for have to do with anything? He needed to get quicker to be a superstar and he didn’t.

 

[TheBig08]

1. yes his confidence might go down at times when has slumps but he dosent have slumps all the time so his confidence isnt down all the time
2. he was never heavier than 220
3. you said him gaining weight made him worse at things i thought one of them was his speed since you brought it up

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

Yes the powerplay helped him get goal production but it wasnt a vital role, his first season 36 goals 73 games only 9 of them were powerplay, the next 2 seasons you have a point 44 goals in 82 games and 20 of them were power play goals thats almost half and then the season after that 30 goals in 82 games and 15 of them were powerplay goals thats half of them for those 2 season it was a vital role, but every season after that it wasnt a vital role.

Look all the powerplay goal totals for every season except for 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 and you will see he didnt realy on the powerplay to get gola production

---

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Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	TOI/G	GWG	OTG	S	S%	FO%
2016-17	Winnipeg Jets	73	36	28	64	+7	26	9	14	0	0	17:55	5	1	204	17.7	0.0
2017-18	Winnipeg Jets	82	44	26	70	+8	24	20	31	0	0	16:29	8	0	241	18.3	25.6
2018-19	Winnipeg Jets	82	30	20	50	-24	42	15	23	0	0	17:14	3	0	245	12.2	36.7
2019-20	Winnipeg Jets	68	28	35	63	+8	22	8	16	0	0	19:25	1	0	226	12.4	37.0
2020-21	Winnipeg Jets	1	2	1	3	+1	4	0	1	0	0	16:20	1	1	3	66.7	50.0
2020-21	Columbus Blue Jackets	45	10	11	21	-29	21	4	6	0	0	17:28	0	0	79	12.7	21.7
2021-22	Columbus Blue Jackets	56	26	30	56	-7	24	5	14	0	0	18:50	7	3	167	15.6	36.8
2022-23	Columbus Blue Jackets	55	22	30	52	-12	16	8	16	0	0	19:07	1	0	184	12.0	35.0
2023-24	Columbus Blue Jackets	18	6	3	9	-10	6	1	2	0	0	15:13	0	0	41	14.6	38.0
Career		480	204	184	388	-58	185	70	123	0	0	17:52	26	5	1390	14.7	33.8

You play in the top 6 the entire season and have the shot he has - of course he's bound to score goals at ES. But he's not going to score 40 goals again without scoring a significant amount of goals on the PP.

 

[TheBig08]

TLDR warning

So to weigh in on the OP.

Jets season ticket holder and had a ringside seat and have an opinion.

The challenge was in his first two seasons in Winnipeg he had an unsustainable shooting %. That created a bit of a overhyping and elevated expectations. The first year he shot 17.7% and the next season (his career season for goals) he shot 18.3%. The following year his shooting % dropped to 12.2 %, then 12.4%, 13%, 15.6%, 12%, then an 18 games season so that sample size is tough. My best guess is the league figured his tendencies out and made adjustments to make life tougher. Also there is a randomness to shooting % for all goal scorers but Patrick’s was more front loaded than what I have historically seen.

Elite Goal scorers tend to have two main skills, first off they have a good shot, duh (accuracy), second element is way less talked about but just as important which is their “skill/ability” to create shots (volume). It’s always accuracy x volume.

Patrik has a beautiful shot even though he tended to shoot from range allot. Still the main area that I think he was challenged with is he wasn’t as elite at generating shots. His shot totals by season started at 204 as a rookie, then 241 in his second season. His 3rd season he peaked at 245 shots, then 226, 167, 184. Now injuries played a part so I break it down to shots per game average over a season. In his first two awesome seasons it was 2.79 shots per game then, 2.98, 3.3, 1.7 (poor sample size), 2.93, 3.3.

his shooting volume has remained pretty flat over the years so by that measurement not much has changed. The first two seasons were outliers driven by high shooting %.

If you look at other goal scores like Matthew’s what is so impressive is he has steadily grown his shooting volume over the years and he has a great shooting % too. He checks both the boxes of volume and accuracy. Same as a kid like Caufield that has really grown his shooting volume since his rookie season. The only thing that hurt him last season was a terrible shooting % but if his accuracy regresses toward the mean this season he should get around 40 goals if he plays 82 games.

With Laine his shooting % dropped and his volumes stayed pretty level, then we layer in the injury history and the challenges he had last season and here we are. Either way Laine’s biggest issue will probably remain his health (until proven otherwise), when healthy he should continue to pace at a 30-35 goal scoring level over large sample sizes (shooting % not withstanding).

None of the injuries he had were career ending or career altering. "My best guess is the league figured his tendencies out and made adjustments to make life tougher" that leads to this, Ovi has the tendency to score from the left circle on the powerplay and no one has been able to stop him and laine has the tendency to score from the left circle on the powerplay as well so if they have similar tendency and teams have tried to stop them both why has ovi been able to continue to score but laine hasn't, the answer i came up with is laine isnt ovi but still they have similar tendency and teams have tried to stop them both but has ovi been able to continue to score but laine hasn't, so what i have to say about "My best guess is the league figured his tendencies out and made adjustments to make life tougher" is that its not that.

Also when you said "The only thing that hurt him last season was a terrible shooting % but if his accuracy regresses toward the mean this season he should get around 40 goals if he plays 82 games." you were talking about caulfield?

You play in the top 6 the entire season and have the shot he has - of course he's bound to score goals at ES. But he's not going to score 40 goals again without scoring a significant amount of goals on the PP.

he might he still has a whole career ahead of him

 

[ps241]

None of the injuries he had were career ending or career altering. "My best guess is the league figured his tendencies out and made adjustments to make life tougher" that leads to this, Ovi has the tendency to score from the left circle on the powerplay and no one has been able to stop him and laine has the tendency to score from the left circle on the powerplay as well so if they have similar tendency and teams have tried to stop them both why has ovi been able to continue to score but laine hasn't, the answer i came up with is laine isnt ovi but still they have similar tendency and teams have tried to stop them both but has ovi been able to continue to score but laine hasn't, so what i have to say about "My best guess is the league figured his tendencies out and made adjustments to make life tougher" is that its not that.

Also when you said "The only thing that hurt him last season was a terrible shooting % but if his accuracy regresses toward the mean this season he should get around 40 goals if he plays 82 games." you were talking about caulfield?


he might he still has a whole career ahead of him

Yes to Caufield. I should have been more clear.

Ovi has had two major advantages that have driven him to the cusp of being the all time NHL goal scorer. First off it’s his health span and longevity. He is in his 20th season and has never had a major injury which is incredible. His second super power is that nobody has been able to hit his shot volume levels for such a long period. I think he averages 380 shots per 82 games or 4.64 SPG for 19 seasons. That is insane. The league has never been able to slow Ovi down that much but father time is starting to win the battle.

You have isolated the one element they share most in common which is scoring from their office on the PP. I do know Laine had allot more PP goals in season 2 (20) and 3 (15) and then he fell off a cliff after that and the most he has ever had during a season on the PP since then has been 8 goals. Ovi has averaged 18 goals (per 82 games played) on the PP over his 19 year career and Laine has averaged 12 goals (per 82 games played) on the PP.

Laine has only reached 10 goals or more on the power play twice. Ovi has reached 10 goals or more on the PP in 17 of his 19 seasons. They took the office away from Laine but they have never been able to take the office away from Alex.

 

[sadpanda]

With all theese injuries I would have said cya

 

[TheBig08]

Yes to Caufield. I should have been more clear.

Ovi has had two major advantages that have driven him to the cusp of being the all time NHL goal scorer. First off it’s his health span and longevity. He is in his 20th season and has never had a major injury which is incredible. His second super power is that nobody has been able to hit his shot volume levels for such a long period. I think he averages 380 shots per 82 games or 4.64 SPG for 19 seasons. That is insane. The league has never been able to slow Ovi down that much but father time is starting to win the battle.

You have isolated the one element they share most in common which is scoring from their office on the PP. I do know Laine had allot more PP goals in season 2 (20) and 3 (15) and then he fell off a cliff after that and the most he has ever had during a season on the PP since then has been 8 goals. Ovi has averaged 18 goals (per 82 games played) on the PP over his 19 year career and Laine has averaged 12 goals (per 82 games played) on the PP.

Laine has only reached 10 goals or more on the power play twice. Ovi has reached 10 goals or more on the PP in 17 of his 19 seasons. They took the office away from Laine but they have never been able to take the office away from Alex.

" I do know Laine had allot more PP goals in season 2 (20) and 3 (15) and then he fell off a cliff after that and the most he has ever had during a season on the PP since then has been 8 goals." Are you saying he had alot more PP goals during his 2nd and 3rd season than the rest?

"Laine has only reached 10 goals or more on the power play twice." If laine played all of his games he would have 10 or more PP goals in all of his seasons.

"Ovi has reached 10 goals or more on the PP in 17 of his 19 seasons" and "Ovi has averaged 18 goals (per 82 games played) on the PP over his 19 year career and Laine has averaged 12 goals (per 82 games played) on the PP." just because ovi scored alot of goals on PP doesnt mean he wasnt good at scoring goals at even strength he was good at scoring goals at even strength and he has alot of even strength goals just saying and Ovi is better at scoring on the powerplay and even strength than Laine.

"They took the office away from Laine but they have never been able to take the office away from Alex." So Laine that means he has a skill issue.

"You have isolated the one element they share most in common which is scoring from their office on the PP." Ovi is better than him at it they were able to stop Laine but hey werent able to stop Ovi.

"Ovi has had two major advantages that have driven him to the cusp of being the all time NHL goal scorer. First off it’s his health span and longevity. He is in his 20th season and has never had a major injury which is incredible. His second super power is that nobody has been able to hit his shot volume levels for such a long period. I think he averages 380 shots per 82 games or 4.64 SPG for 19 seasons. That is insane. The league has never been able to slow Ovi down that much but father time is starting to win the battle." Are you going anywhere with this that has to do with Laine or are your just saying it? and Even tho he has longevity dosent mean hes healthy every game, there are games were has played while he was injured.

 

[waffledave]

Mental health. Depression + anxiety.

 

[TheBig08]

Mental health. Depression + anxiety.

He didnt fall off because of mental health problems, depression, and anxiety because he didnt have mental health problems, depression, and anxiety until after he was traded to the blue jackets and his fall off started before he was traded to the blue jackets.

 

[waffledave]

its no that because he left to the blue jackets for a fresh start and still couldnt get back to his playing level from 2016-2017 and 2017-2018.

Fresh start doesn't magically cure mental disease. You need therapy, medication, and often need to try multiple versions of each before you find what works.

 

[TheBig08]

Fresh start doesn't magically cure mental disease. You need therapy, medication, and often need to try multiple versions of each before you find what works.

i edited it before you replied i just hadnt saved it , go back and read it

 

[Sky04]

Weak mental, weak worth ethic. A 6'4 player with that shot should not have a career high of only 70 points.

 

[TheBig08]

Weak mental, weak worth ethic. A 6'4 player with that shot should not have a career high of only 70 points.

He didnt fall off because of mental health problems, depression, and anxiety because he didnt have mental health problems, depression, and anxiety until after he was traded to the blue jackets and his fall off started before he was traded to the blue jackets. i have never heard or saw anything about him having a bad work ethic so its not that.

 

[waffledave]

.

i edited it before you replied i just hadnt saved it , go back and read it

How do you know he didn't have mental disease before he was traded?