What happened to Patrik Laine goal scoring after his first two seasons?
He did really good his first two seasons scoring his first season (2016-2017, 18 years of age) 36 goals in 73 games (on pace for 40 goals) then his second season (2017-2018, 19 years of age) 44 goals in 82 games coming in 2nd for most goals in the league then after that he hasn't been able to put up those goal scoring totals since. The next season (2018-2019, 20 years of age) he has a big drop off and only scores 30 goals in 82 games and then never played a full season again but all those seasons he never was on pace for 40 goals in 82 games (2019-2020, 21 years of age) 28 goals in 68 games (lockout season teams playing only 68 to 71 games that depending on which team his played 71) he was on pace for 34 goals in 82 games, (2020-2021, 22 years of age) 12 goals in 46 games (lockout season all teams playing a max of 56 games, He played on game for the jets then was traded to the blue jackets and played the rest of his games there) he was on pace for 21 goals in 82 games, (2021-2022, 23 years of age) 26 goals in 56 games that put him on pace for 38 goals in 82 games (the closest he would ever get to 40 goals), (2022-2023, 24 years of age) 22 goals in 55 games puts him on pace for 33 goals in 82 games, (2023-2024, 25 years of age) 6 goals in 18 games that puts him on pace for 27 goals in 82 games.
Just in case anybody brings up the fact he has had injuries and healthy scratches , I know he has had injuries in the past but none of them were career altering or career ending injuries and I don't know the reasons behind the healthy scratches but if you know let me know.
TLDR warning
So to weigh in on the OP.
Jets season ticket holder and had a ringside seat and have an opinion.
The challenge was in his first two seasons in Winnipeg he had an unsustainable shooting %. That created a bit of a overhyping and elevated expectations. The first year he shot 17.7% and the next season (his career season for goals) he shot 18.3%. The following year his shooting % dropped to 12.2 %, then 12.4%, 13%, 15.6%, 12%, then an 18 games season so that sample size is tough. My best guess is the league figured his tendencies out and made adjustments to make life tougher. Also there is a randomness to shooting % for all goal scorers but Patrick’s was more front loaded than what I have historically seen.
Elite Goal scorers tend to have two main skills, first off they have a good shot, duh (accuracy), second element is way less talked about but just as important which is their “skill/ability” to create shots (volume). It’s always accuracy x volume.
Patrik has a beautiful shot even though he tended to shoot from range allot. Still the main area that I think he was challenged with is he wasn’t as elite at generating shots. His shot totals by season started at 204 as a rookie, then 241 in his second season. His 3rd season he peaked at 245 shots, then 226, 167, 184. Now injuries played a part so I break it down to shots per game average over a season. In his first two awesome seasons it was 2.79 shots per game then, 2.98, 3.3, 1.7 (poor sample size), 2.93, 3.3.
his shooting volume has remained pretty flat over the years so by that measurement not much has changed. The first two seasons were outliers driven by high shooting %.
If you look at other goal scores like Matthew’s what is so impressive is he has steadily grown his shooting volume over the years and he has a great shooting % too. He checks both the boxes of volume and accuracy. Same as a kid like Caufield that has really grown his shooting volume since his rookie season. The only thing that hurt him last season was a terrible shooting % but if his accuracy regresses toward the mean this season he should get around 40 goals if he plays 82 games.
With Laine his shooting % dropped and his volumes stayed pretty level, then we layer in the injury history and the challenges he had last season and here we are. Either way Laine’s biggest issue will probably remain his health (until proven otherwise), when healthy he should continue to pace at a 30-35 goal scoring level over large sample sizes (shooting % not withstanding).