Player Discussion Patrik Laine: Part 2 - Healthy Living Edition

[Sorinth]

They played well yesterday and got benched for most of 3rd period after Demidov turned it over in a bad spot (I guess that's what MSL had an issue with?) . While the 3rd line took the goals against but "earned it".

Earn how?

They didn't play the last 10min because we were protecting a lead in a must win game. Not sure Caufield saw the ice during the last 5-6min either. It's all pretty normal stuff.

 

[Marioesque]

They didn't play the last 10min because we were protecting a lead in a must win game. Not sure Caufield saw the ice during the last 5-6min either. It's all pretty normal stuff.

Yeah it's definitely standard Marty.

Some people just like to offer the low usage as an argument that it must be due to poor play. That's not always the case, coaches aren't infallible and they sometimes assess things wrong based on their emotions as well. They have their safety blankets, logically warranted or not.

 

[Sorinth]

Yeah it's definitely standard Marty.

Some people just like to offer the low usage as an argument that it must be due to poor play. That's not always the case, coaches aren't infallible and they sometimes assess things wrong based on their emotions as well. They have their safety blankets, logically warranted or not.

It's standard for every coach in every professional hockey league. In a must win game when leading late you shorten the bench a lot. And despite how impressive Demidov has been, he's a risk, as is Laine, and even Newhook is pretty iffy when protecting a lead.

But yes low ice time isn't always about poor play.

 

[Marioesque]

It's standard for every coach in every professional hockey league. In a must win game when leading late you shorten the bench a lot. And despite how impressive Demidov has been, he's a risk, as is Laine, and even Newhook is pretty iffy when protecting a lead.

But yes low ice time isn't always about poor play.

In playoffs I don't think there's anything for habs to lose, just something to win. Very few expected to make the playoffs but the team did it.

To have any sort of chance of any success in the playoffs, going against the top seeded team in the league, they have to lean on going for it and leaning into the offensive abilities of the two. That's what they are exceptional for, not the other things. So if you want them to perform then they need to play and have the puck so they can put it in net. I'd go about increasing their play time, to get that offensive secondary scoring.
We'll see how they'll go about it. All we can do.

 

[themilosh]

Found it thx for nothing

46 in 52 +6 with Laine
22 in 32 -10 without Laine

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This season is primed for Hugo to extend him this summer at $7m x 4... we're not going to find a trigger man better via trade or FA. Sure he's not the most defensively sound, but dude came back in record time from a knee injury that most thought would be the whole season, and was a big reason for our crazy playoff push..

Imagine what he'll be like with a summer in Montreal, fully healed and stability for his future? That $7M could be a steal, at worst equal value.

 

[Sharknado2]

........

If you play him with a great playmaker ( Demidov ) and a big 2-way center that can get in the rough area to get the puck would help Laine exploit his special talent?

.......

Finding players that fit well and compliment each other strenghts is important and Laine was not put on a line where he was in position to succeed but still hes one of the big reason why we are in the playoff.

.......

Exactly. He needs good line mates and so far, him and Demidov seem to be working. Ovechkin is still a 1 trick pony and in his early years was had a ton of disconncted controller memes so defensively Laine is getting better each game I find.

 

[Deebs]

This season is primed for Hugo to extend him this summer at $7m x 4... we're not going to find a trigger man better via trade or FA. Sure he's not the most defensively sound, but dude came back in record time from a knee injury that most thought would be the whole season, and was a big reason for our crazy playoff push..

Imagine what he'll be like with a summer in Montreal, fully healed and stability for his future? That $7M could be a steal, at worst equal value.

He doesn't need to be extended, he has a year left. Let him prove his worth by having a good offseason and playing more than half or 2/3rds the year, which he hasn't done since 2018-19. He also needs to prove that he isn't the dog fk'er we've been watching all year. That's not the way this team plays and he needs to fall inline with his teammates.

 

[Farmboy Patty]

No one in the NHL is going to give Laine 9 millions.

I guess we'll see after next season.

 

[InsideLaineBOOM]

He doesn't need to be extended, he has a year left. Let him prove his worth by having a good offseason and playing more than half or 2/3rds the year, which he hasn't done 2018-19. He also needs to prove that he isn't the dog fk'er we've been watching all year. That's not the way this team plays and he needs to fall inline with his teammates.

I agree on everything besides dog fk'er thing. Although there could be some truth to it as well in terms of how MSL sees him.

If Laine plays a "good enough" (for a future 7-8.5m guy for Habs) autumn of 2025 and January 2026 but is still not good enough for MSL and/or not fitting for the Habs cup plans, then Habs can trade him 50 % retained on the TDL early 2026.

Win-win for Habs imo. Unless Patty gets injured bad again and/or has a bad season. Then trading him ln TDL with any type of retention wont work.

IF MSL/Habs are thinking that Laine is not gonna work in any way even for next season, then they can try to trade him 50 % retained already this off season, slipped into a bigger deal.

 

[InsideLaineBOOM]

I guess we'll see after next season.

I agree btw that another team will give Patty 9m after a solid season. Habs wont.

 

[Farmboy Patty]

Laine made turnover after turnover all year long. The fact that you still think he's a good player is mindblowing.

I am sure that the only thing that matters to MSL is what he can contribute with today. It's all that matters. I trust in MSL's judgement on what lines to put on the ice in different situations. That is why you will see Suzuki on the ice in all situations and Evans and Dvorak for important faceoffs etc. It's pretty basic when you think about it. Game situations and current performances in game dictate what lines step on the ice. TOI is reflected on the score and if the team is chasing or protecting a lead.

 

[Mrb1p]

I guess we'll see after next season.

Unless he turns around next year he wont. I doubt he asks for that much anyway.

 

[Pat Riot]

He doesn't need to be extended, he has a year left. Let him prove his worth by having a good offseason and playing more than half or 2/3rds the year, which he hasn't done since 2018-19. He also needs to prove that he isn't the dog fk'er we've been watching all year. That's not the way this team plays and he needs to fall inline with his teammates.

dog f***er? you can keep your fantasy to yourself dweeb

 

[the]

I guess we'll see after next season.

I have no doubt he can turn his career around but can he also stay healthy? He hasn’t played a full season since 2019.

I think if he gets 60+ points next season a short term 7m contract would be fair for both sides. He seems happy here and doesn’t strike me as a money hungry player.

 

[Sorinth]

In playoffs I don't think there's anything for habs to lose, just something to win. Very few expected to make the playoffs but the team did it.

To have any sort of chance of any success in the playoffs, going against the top seeded team in the league, they have to lean on going for it and leaning into the offensive abilities of the two. That's what they are exceptional for, not the other things. So if you want them to perform then they need to play and have the puck so they can put it in net. I'd go about increasing their play time, to get that offensive secondary scoring.
We'll see how they'll go about it. All we can do.

For sure Laine and Demidov doing well will help tremendously, and they do have a chance to get a lot of minutes if they do well, but no matter how well they are playing in a game, if we are up by a goal late they are going to sit. And it's probably the right decision because they do present a defensive risk that just isn't worth taking when trying to close out a game.

 

[Marioesque]

if we are up by a goal late they are going to sit. And it's probably the right decision because they do present a defensive risk that just isn't worth taking when trying to close out a game.

I know coach will think so. I worry more about the 3rd line in those situations, it seems like the bigger risk.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Idk why this debate about Laine is still on going when the coaching staff seems to have already solved it out perfectly. Laine is simply not a positive value player at 5v5. This is not just an opinion, but a simple fact. His 40,31% expected goal share is literally 12th worst in the entire league out of all forwards with more than 500 minutes of playtime, where his closest comparables are guys like Patrick Maroon, Sam Lafferty and Luke Kunin. You might argue that as a talented shooter he's actually better than what his playdriving numbers would suggest, but for this season it's actually the opposite, with Laine being on-ice for 17 goals for and 26 against, a 39,53% goal share.

The coaching staff is very much aware of all this, and as a result tries to minimize the damage that he causes by giving him reduces minutes with some of the most lopsided deployment in the entire league, only comparable to his idol Ovechkin. 73% of his shifts that begin with a faceoff come from the offensive zone, where the hard work of gaining a zone entry has already been done by someone else, most likely our first line, as they are literally the only line in the entire team who on average gain more ice than they lose during their shift. This is where we come to the crux of my argument.

We are by far the worst playdriving team in the playoffs right now. In fact we are still bottom 10 in the league when strictly looking at playdriving numbers even if you only look at results from the past month. That is not a cup contending team. That is a bad team that constantly needs it's star players including the goalie to pull miracles out of its ass to win games that you should not be winning. Scoring powerplay goals at will is a great skill yes, but it is extremely unreliable and extremely overrated in terms of how much money you have to pay for a guy like Laine who can score like hell, but who is the equivalent of a 36 year old Patrick Maroon at 5v5.

In fact I'd much rather pay a guy like Puljujarvi a quarter of that money just so that he can be an absolute dog who can carry the puck to the offensive zone and hound the opposition just so that our boy Nick could one day dream about starting the majority of his shifts from the offensive zone, and still have a functioning back by the time he reaches 30.

Honestly, I’d be fine moving on from him. Offseason might help somewhat but I haven’t been impressed.

As for the PP, he’s the most efficient PP man in the league. But our PP overall didn’t change much. 20 percent pretty steadily all year. He simply scored the goals others were scoring. I’m fine if he comes back but I’d be more than happy to move on from him. Hopefully he has a good playoff.

As for the team not deserving the playoffs- I think it’s true from the sense that we got a lot out of our stars this year. Caufield was amazing in the first half, Suzuki one of the best players on the league down the stretch and Hutson has energized as a bonafied star. The team still has huge holes that need to be addressed. The 2nd line badly needs an overhaul. If Laine comes back, my hope is that Demidov can help him.

 

[Sorinth]

I know coach will think so. I worry more about the 3rd line in those situations, it seems like the bigger risk.

I'm also never thrilled with putting Gallagher out there late.

But watching as a fan isn't all that great at picking out the reliability factor since the focus/attention is on the big flashy stuff. For example we'll remember the blown coverage that leads to a goal against, but we probably don't remember the blown coverage where nothing happened because Hutson made a great play, won a puck battle, and we exited the zone. But as a coach both blown coverages matter about as much.

And I would mention in Demidov's case the risk is we just don't know anything about how good he'll be in those situations because it's only been two games. I very much hope he becomes a guy that can be trusted in those situations but it understandably takes time for a rookie to earn that trust.

 

[The Great Weal]

Honestly, I’d be fine moving on from him. Offseason might help somewhat but I haven’t been impressed.

As for the PP, he’s the most efficient PP man in the league. But our PP overall didn’t change much. 20 percent pretty steadily all year. He simply scored the goals others were scoring.

I’m fine if he comes back but I’d be more than happy to move on from him. Hopefully he has a good playoff.

Laine's got negative value. We aren't in a position to attach assets just to dump him. I guess you could trade him at 50% for nothing, but after hopefully getting a 2C and top 4 RHD, I'm not sure how we have the assets to get someone else. It's probably more worthwhile to gamble on him for next year given all the time lost and that brutal knee injury that likely needed surgery and hope he bounces back. If he doesn't, well his contract is over next year. No harm no foul.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Laine's got negative value. We aren't in a position to attach assets just to dump him. I guess you could trade him at 50% for nothing, but after hopefully getting a 2C and top 4 RHD, I'm not sure how we have the assets to get someone else. It's probably more worthwhile to gamble on him for next year given all the time lost and that brutal knee injury that likely needed surgery and hope he bounces back. If he doesn't, well his contract is over next year. No harm no foul.

Yeah, that's what I think will happen.

 

[Team_Spirit]

When did Patty return?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Canadiens were 15th in PP from Oct 4th to December 1st. 20.8 percent. From December 1st to game 82 we were 24th in the league with 19.5 percent.

Laine gave us a small short term boost in December. We went from 20.8 to 21.6 percent. In January we were 25th with 16.2 percent. February we were sizzling at 29.2 percent - good for 9th in the league. March we were 22 percent.

In April? Dead last in the league. 5 percent.

 

[Fuonki]

As for the team not deserving the playoffs- I think it’s true from the sense that we got a lot out of our stars this year. Caufield was amazing in the first half, Suzuki one of the best players on the league down the stretch and Hutson has energized as a bonafied star. The team still has huge holes that need to be addressed. The 2nd line badly needs an overhaul. If Laine comes back, my hope is that Demidov can help him.

I wouldn't go so far as say that this team doesn't deserve playoffs - in this league you get what you deserve, it's more of a reflection on reality. Top playdriving teams are constant top teams. Teams like Colorado & Carolina have been on the top of xG statistics for years and it shows as continued success. Washington and us this year are the most notable outliers, and I'm really curious to see what happens for them next year.

It's good that you pointed out the fact that our overall PP efficiency overall hasn't really changed with Laine, as that would have been my other main point. Laine's PP goal totals have been mostly cannibalized from other forwards, most notably Caufield who could have scored them otherwise. Especially with the addition of Demidov there's no reason why our PP should orientate around feeding (what would otherwise be) low-danger shots to one guy who turns those low-danger shots into high-danger opportunities. We've got plenty of skill to go for more sustained offense.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I wouldn't go so far as say that this team doesn't deserve playoffs - in this league you get what you deserve, it's more of a reflection on reality. Top playdriving teams are constant top teams. Teams like Colorado & Carolina have been on the top of xG statistics for years and it shows as continued success. Washington and us this year are the most notable outliers, and I'm really curious to see what happens for them next year.

It's good that you pointed out the fact that our overall PP efficiency overall hasn't really changed with Laine, as that would have been my other main point. Laine's PP goal totals have been mostly cannibalized from other forwards, most notably Caufield who could have scored them otherwise. Especially with the addition of Demidov there's no reason why our PP should orientate around feeding (what would otherwise be) low-danger shots to one guy who turns those low-danger shots into high-danger opportunities. We've got plenty of skill to go for more sustained offense.

We've won quite a few games that we didn't 'deserve'. But... that's also a testament to the skill we have on this team. We actually have players who can score and win us games where we're behind or getting outplayed. We haven't had that since the early 90s.

We used to win games by virtue of Carey Price. Terrible clubs that couldn't score but we'd just skunk the other teams. Now it's a whole slew of players who can put the puck in the net.

I didn't expect the playoffs this year. We're the youngest team to ever make it. That's incredible and a testament to the talent we have coming up. Our best years are ahead of us. We're going to win plenty of games in the coming years and most will be deserved.

 

[Marioesque]

Especially with the addition of Demidov there's no reason why our PP should orientate around feeding (what would otherwise be) low-danger shots to one guy who turns those low-danger shots into high-danger opportunities. We've got plenty of skill to go for more sustained offense.

Laine just being there helps the rest of the PP. Because they get a 4 on 3 PP when one guy is glued to Laine.

All this talent should definitely be able to abuse that extra room that's available because someone is assigned to Laine. They have had the opportunity for a while now, since teams started cheating towards Laine. It's up to the other 4 to figure out how to produce.

Once they start being more productive with their 4 on 3, teams will stop cheating towards Laine and then HE is the option again.