Player Discussion Patrik Laine: Part 2 - Healthy Living Edition

[Benstheman]

Im gonna say how I see it:
- if you sign Laine long-term for big money and he runs into his old issues (big injuries, mental health problems due to a life crisis) again, it will mean we are not winning the cup during his contract.
- if he stays healthy we will have decent chances for a cup during his contract.
- if we dont sign Laine (and use the money on someone else), we will have unknown chances for a cup (depends hugely on who we sign instead of Laine) during the next 6-7 years.

So to me the question to ask is:
- Who would (could) we sign instead of Laine for approx the same money?

After one has some clarity on the answer it will be easier to assess if signing Laine is worth the risk.

You first need to know for how much and how long we would need to sign him.

NO way in hell he will ask for the same salary and even if he asks for it, he won't get it. So he will bet on himself and sign a 2 years deal. So after this 2 years contract, he will be young enough to be able to sign a bigger, longer contracts.

I say Habs will be able to resign him at about 7M$-7,5M$ for 2 years.

 

[LaineBOOM]

I say Habs will be able to resign him at about 7M$-7,5M$ for 2 years.

This is imo the best option for all parties involved. Less risk for the Habs, and Laine will definitely want to bet on himself.

 

[Benstheman]

Not anymore but I suspect you are playing devils advocate right. Mere observation should tell you all you need to know.

It's not because they went 3 points in the last 3 games that they are not one of the best team in the NHL since his comeback. Even the best teams in the NHL have this kind of stretch. Habs are 3rd behind Oilers and Capitals since Laine joined in.

 

[Benstheman]

This is imo the best option for all parties involved. Less risk for the Habs, and Laine will definitely want to bet on himself.

Yeah and at some point, maybe when Demidov signs his 1st long term contract, and with Hutson probably getting big bucks also, we won't be able to keep both Caufield and Laine.

So yeah a 2 years, max 3, will be the ideal term for the team.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Am I the only one who isn't that sold on Patrik Laine? Yes I know he has one of the best shots in the league and I know his knee injury set him back a bit but his total game isn't as good as I thought it would be. I am sure I will get a bunch of push back.

We’ve seen what Kirby Dach was like when recovering from an injury. I’m inclined to give Laine the benefit of the doubt for now.

 

[Jurivan Demidovsky]

Am I the only one who isn't that sold on Patrik Laine? Yes I know he has one of the best shots in the league and I know his knee injury set him back a bit but his total game isn't as good as I thought it would be. I am sure I will get a bunch of push back.

21 gp 12g 6a 18p

Pretty good numbers for a guy who isn't at his best yet..

 

[sampollock]

21 gp 12g 6a 18p

Pretty good numbers for a guy who isn't at his best yet..

He never gets credit

 

[DAChampion]

I say Habs will be able to resign him at about 7M$-7,5M$ for 2 years.

Are you among the people willing to give 4M$ - 4,5M$ for 4 years to Jake Evans?

 

[LaineBOOM]

Are you among the people willing to give 4M$ - 4,5M$ for 4 years to Jake Evans?

@Benstheman Do not say anything before discussing with your lawyer.

 

[Habssince89]

I don't think we're seeing him at full game shape. Remember how long Dach took to get back to his old self.

We have just enough time to evaluate him until he's UFA

 

[Benstheman]

Are you among the people willing to give 4M$ - 4,5M$ for 4 years to Jake Evans?

I think he will sign for 4X 3,5M$.

Why you ask?

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

From early age Finnish guys learn that all Swedish guys are gay (I am just stating this for cultural reference, not as a fact), [...]

"InsideLaine"

 

[DAChampion]

I think he will sign for 4X 3,5M$.

Why you ask?

To me it seems obvious that Laine is a much better bet than Evans, but maybe that's misguided.

 

[LaineBOOM]

"InsideLaine"

Haha that reminds me that I was supposed to change my name as the current one is perceived as sexual by some weirdos. Any suggestions? It must convey my love for Laine (nd for Habs since Laine came in) in a non-sexual way.

 

[OneSharpMarble]

Haha that reminds me that I was supposed to change my name as the current one is perceived as sexual by some weirdos. Any suggestions? It must convey my love for Laine (nd for Habs since Laine came in) in a non-sexual way.

You said it best in your last sentence. Change it to "HappySinceLaineCame". There nothing sexual about that.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You first need to know for how much and how long we would need to sign him.

NO way in hell he will ask for the same salary and even if he asks for it, he won't get it. So he will bet on himself and sign a 2 years deal. So after this 2 years contract, he will be young enough to be able to sign a bigger, longer contracts.

I say Habs will be able to resign him at about 7M$-7,5M$ for 2 years.

I do also believe that his AAV won't be at his current rate. Even if he reaches UFA, I feel many teams will target the 3-5 year term and something around that $7M-$8M range. If he likes it in Montreal, he might take 5x $7M.

What does our herd say if both Laine and Ehlers sign for $7M AAV and Hughes flips Newhook/1st/prospect for a RD like R Andersson? Is there cap space for this? I think there is but difficult to know how tight.

Where does Ehlers play? Doesn't appear to be room in the top 6 with Demidov coming.

 

[Benstheman]

I do also believe that his AAV won't be at his current rate. Even if he reaches UFA, I feel many teams will target the 3-5 year term and something around that $7M-$8M range. If he likes it in Montreal, he might take 5x $7M.

What does our herd say if both Laine and Ehlers sign for $7M AAV and Hughes flips Newhook/1st/prospect for a RD like R Andersson? Is there cap space for this? I think there is but difficult to know how tight.

Where does Ehlers play? Doesn't appear to be room in the top 6 with Demidov coming.

At that point, I think Ehlers would be too big of a luxury to fit all those players under the cap, when Demidov signs his big contract in 3 years.

If you get Rasmus Andersson, you will have to pay him about the same. 7 X 7 M$.

Off course that would mean Matheson and Newhook are gone but still.

 

[HHel]

I don't think Laine will agree to a 2-3 year deal. That doesn't make any sense to him. If they say he's asking for 8.5M-9M x 6-8 years and the club doesn't want to give it. Who will replace him on the team to keep the competitiveness the same? The team has to be successful within four years, because Hutson and Demidov, for example, are on cheap contracts.

Laine is nowhere near full fitness yet and still scored 18 points in 21 games. You can't ignore that.

Laine gets a lot of crap for not being the smoothest skater or trying too hard to slip through small gaps sometimes. But he's a very smart player and makes a lot of small good moves. Give him a chance and judge him only next season when he is full fit and he's had a chance to play with Demidov.

 

[Habs Halifax]

At that point, I think Ehlers would be too big of a luxury to fit all those players under the cap, when Demidov signs his big contract in 3 years.

If you get Rasmus Andersson, you will have to pay him about the same. 7 X 7 M$.

Off course that would mean Matheson and Newhook are gone but still.

Not sure what Ehlers does to our cap but yeah, it probably does not have room for Matheson and Newhook.

My biggest are to ponder if we add Ehlers is we have no room for him in the top 6 with Demidov coming. Yeah, we can replace Newhook but our plans for Newhook is 3rd line next year right?

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don't think Laine will agree to a 2-3 year deal. That doesn't make any sense to him. If they say he's asking for 8.5M-9M x 6-8 years and the club doesn't want to give it. Who will replace him on the team to keep the competitiveness the same? The team has to be successful within four years, because Hutson and Demidov, for example, are on cheap contracts.

Laine is nowhere near full fitness yet and still scored 18 points in 21 games. You can't ignore that.

Laine gets a lot of crap for not being the smoothest skater or trying too hard to slip through small gaps sometimes. But he's a very smart player and makes a lot of small good moves. Give him a chance and judge him only next season when he is full fit and he's had a chance to play with Demidov.

I think Laine will look for the best team fit and contract (combo of the two). He's had a wild ride in his career so far and he's clearly looking for stability. He's earned around $50M so far so that is something where he is already set for life. Of course he will still want to get paid on his next deal but I think the 5x $7M-$8M is something that is not a far reach. If his agent gets to his head and pushes for 6-8x $9M+, that will be something we will have to really evaluate.

 

[Scriptor]

I think that there is room for all of that, but likely not the year after once Hutson is re-upped.

Let me check for next year...

Laine (8.7M)
Suzuki (7.875M)
Caufield (7.85M)
Slafkovsky (7.6M)
Ehlers (7M)
Gallagher (6.5M)
Anderson (5.5M)
Demidov (4,65M, with 3.65M in potential bonuses)
Dach (3.3625M)
Evans (3.3625M)
Heineman (2M X 3 - new contract as RFA leaving 1 year as RFA)
Beck (853K)


FORWARD TOTAL (assuming Evans re-signs at Dach money and term - 3.625M X 4 years, Heineman signs a 3-year bridge at 2M, leaving one more season as a RFA at the end of that 2nd contract and Beck makes the team on his ELC good throughout next season: 62,128M to 65.778M for 12 players, the bare minimum, depending on the bonuses Demidov gets. In either case, all, or some of the bonuses can be shovelled forward to the following season if we end up going over the Cap ceiling.

Guhle (5.55M)
Matheson (4.875M)
Andersson (4.55M)
Carrier (3.75M)
Hutson (1.8M with 850K in potential bonuses)
Xhekaj (1.3M)

DEFENSE TOTAL: 20,975M to 21,825M for 6 players, the bare minimum, with 850K in bonuses that can get shovelled forward to the following season in Hutson's case if we end up going over the Cap ceiling.
Montembeault (3.15M)
Dobes (2.5M X 3, leaving one year as RFA)
GOALIE TOTAL: 5.65M, assuming Dobes signs a 3-year bridge at 2.5M, leaving one more season as RFA at the end of that 2nd contract.
GRAND TOTAL for a minimum 20-player roster: 89.466 to 93,116M for 2025-2026
Projected Cap ceiling expected to be 92.5M, if players do not agree to go above de 5% raise and pay more escrow on their salaries. With full bonuses to both Demidov and Hutson, we would need to shovel forward 616K in bonuses, or more, depending on the short term IR. We would have leeway by shovelling more bonus money to the following season, but that would be a very dangerous game to play.

The following year gets more complicated:

Suzuki (7.875M)
Caufield (7.85M)
Slafkovsky (7.6M)
Laine (7M)
Ehlers (7M)
Gallagher (6.5M)
Anderson (5.5M)
Dach (5.5M X 4 extension)
Demidov (1M - 4.65M)
Evans (3.3625M)
Heineman (2M)
Beck (1,5M X 2 bridge contact)

FORWARD TOTAL (assuming Evans re-signed at Dach prior money and term - 3.625M X 4 years, Dach signs a 4-year extension at 5.5M, Heineman signed a 3-year bridge at 2M, leaving one more season as a RFA at the end of that 2nd contract and Beck signs a two-year bridge contract at 1.5M: 62,6875M to 66,3375M, for 12 players, the bare minimum, with up to 3.65M that can be shovelled in bonus money for Demidov.

Hutson (8M X 6 year extension)
Andersson (7,5M X 8 year extension)
Guhle (5.55M)
Carrier (3.75M)
Xhekaj (1.3M)
Reinbacher (1,919M with 1M in potential bonuses)

Defense total: 27,019M to 28,019M for 6 players, the bare minimum, with 1M in bonuses for reinbacher that can be shovelled forward to the following season.

Montembeault (3.15M)
Dobes (2.5M X 3, leaving one year as RFA)

Goalie total: 5.65M, assuming Dobes re-signed a 3-year bridge at 2.5M, leaving one more season as RFA at the end of that 2nd contract.

GRAND TOTAL for a minimum 20-player roster: 95,3565 (probably 95,9725M with 616K carry over in bonuses from the previous season) to 100M (probably 100,616M with 616K carry over in bonuses from the previous season) for 2026-2027

Projected Cap ceiling expected to be around 97M by then. That would mean a potential 3,616M carry over in bonuses for 2027-2028!

By then, 12M will come off the books for Gallagher and Anderson's contracts, plus whatever the rise in the Cap ceiling will be to address a raise for Demidov after the 2027-2028 season and Beck at the same time.

All doable, but with some serious juggling by Hughes and little leeway for the IR on a bare minimum roster.

As to the roster size, considering that Montreal is such a young team and that the farm team in Laval is so close, I think that they could get away with keeping the NHL roster size to 20 players.


...

 

[HHel]

I think Laine will look for the best team fit and contract (combo of the two). He's had a wild ride in his career so far and he's clearly looking for stability. He's earned around $50M so far so that is something where he is already set for life. Of course he will still want to get paid on his next deal but I think the 5x $7M-$8M is something that is not a far reach. If his agent gets to his head and pushes for 6-8x $9M+, that will be something we will have to really evaluate.

I really think he likes Montreal and wants to sign an extension here. But you have to remember that this is his last contract he will sign in his prime. So 5 years could be possible, but I don't think less than that. The lowest price is probably 8M x 5 years and that's low for a PPG player and scorer, even if he has some minor flaws in his game.

I personally would like to see Laine in a Canadiens jersey in the coming seasons and see what this team is capable of.

 

[Benstheman]

Not sure what Ehlers does to our cap but yeah, it probably does not have room for Matheson and Newhook.

My biggest are to ponder if we add Ehlers is we have no room for him in the top 6 with Demidov coming. Yeah, we can replace Newhook but our plans for Newhook is 3rd line next year right?

Yeah Newhook is not a top 6 for me.

But going back to Ehlers, unless your plan is to make a center out of Demidov or Slafkovsky (he was practicing face-offs yesterday...), one of the top 6 wingers will play on the 3rd line at 7 M$ +.

So you end up with two players in Demidov/Slaf and Dach playing 2nd and 3rd line center, which is far from being optimal. Or you have a winger earning 7M$ + on the third line.

I don't see any reasonable solution out of this. Maybe trade Slaf and Dach for a no.1 center or no.1 RHD.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I really think he likes Montreal and wants to sign an extension here. But you have to remember that this is his last contract he will sign in his prime. So 5 years could be possible, but I don't think less than that. The lowest price is probably 8M x 5 years and that's low for a PPG player and scorer, even if he has some minor flaws in his game.

I personally would like to see Laine in a Canadiens jersey in the coming seasons and see what this team is capable of.

It really depends on what he is after. He has gone through a wild ride so far in his career and is looking for stability. Playing on a young team with a coach like MSL is hard to pass IMO... especially if he goes to UFA and wonders about how he fits on another team and their coach. I'm sure he is enjoying is time in Montreal so far. Hughes probably is conservative and talks contract extension this summer but might decide to delay it for the following season and extend him before or around the 2026 TDL. More sample size to evaluate

I honestly don't think money will be the sole factor with Laine on his next deal. 8x $8M vs 8x $10M when he has earned $50M. Basically, the difference between $114M and $130M after a 8 year term. He's set for life regardless of what he gets on his next deal.

Yeah Newhook is not a top 6 for me.

But going back to Ehlers, unless your plan is to make a center out of Demidov or Slafkovsky (he was practicing face-offs yesterday...), one of the top 6 wingers will play on the 3rd line at 7 M$ +.

So you end up with two players in Demidov/Slaf and Dach playing 2nd and 3rd line center, which is far from being optimal. Or you have a winger earning 7M$ + on the third line.

I don't see any reasonable solution out of this. Maybe trade Slaf and Dach for a no.1 center or no.1 RHD.

Interesting stuff to ponder about. I do wonder if we become a 3 line team in the future with two very good PP's. It's possible but will it fit the cap?

 

[HHel]

Yeah Newhook is not a top 6 for me.

But going back to Ehlers, unless your plan is to make a center out of Demidov or Slafkovsky (he was practicing face-offs yesterday...), one of the top 6 wingers will play on the 3rd line at 7 M$ +.

So you end up with two players in Demidov/Slaf and Dach playing 2nd and 3rd line center, which is far from being optimal. Or you have a winger earning 7M$ + on the third line.

I don't see any reasonable solution out of this. Maybe trade Slaf and Dach for a no.1 center or no.1 RHD.

Newhook is obviously not a top 6 player.

And with Dach, the team has to make a decision. He's a skilled player, but his faceoffs are just awful. If he can't improve on that, then he can't be a top 6 player. That's the biggest problem with the 2nd line right now.

I don't know if this team has place for Ehlers right now.